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Week 16 Discussion (Other Teams)

balfan23

balfan23

MVP
Inqui said:
I remember in 2012 we benched everyone against the Bengals. Granted they'd wrapped up the #6 seed so they benched everyone too, but I don't think we'd have risked anyone even if the Bengals had to win to sneak into the playoffs. The players and coaches only care about doing what's best for them - denying division rivals is a fan concern. Like you say I think the Jags would be more likely to regret losing a starter to injury than losing a dead rubber just because it's the Titans.

Which is a pain for us because we have a better conference record than the Bills and Chargers, so if the Titans lose there's no way for us to not get the #5 seed. But I'm trying to compute the three-way ties with the Titans involved (that shit's complicated...) and I suspect the reason we haven't clinched a playoff spot yet is because of a scenario like that.
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If it works out that way it will take away one of our avenues to the playoffs. We get in with either a win (which guarantees us #5) or a Bills loss or a Titans loss. So if we lose and Bills win, JAX taking the day off would end our season. TN is in a tailspin ... I really think JAX would otherwise win and provide a safety valve.

I know some will say " if we don't win we don't deserve it". While that may be true, I'd rather get in than not ... No matter the circumstances.
 
Inqui

Inqui

Pro Bowler
balfan23 said:
If it works out that way it will take away one of our avenues to the playoffs. We get in with either a win (which guarantees us #5) or a Bills loss or a Titans loss. So if we lose and Bills win, JAX taking the day off would end our season. TN is in a tailspin ... I really think JAX would otherwise win and provide a safety valve.

I know some will say " if we don't win we don't deserve it". While that may be true, I'd rather get in than not ... No matter the circumstances.
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I got our conference record wrong in the above post. I had us at 8-4 where a loss to the Bengals would put us at 7-5 (and worse than the Titans). I've gone over every combination from the 8-7 teams' potential results next week in the playoff picture thread, and I believe the only way we miss the playoffs is if we lose to the Bengals and the Titans, Bills and Chargers all win.
 
mc_red23

mc_red23

Pro Bowler
Inqui said:
I got our conference record wrong in the above post. I had us at 8-4 where a loss to the Bengals would put us at 7-5 (and worse than the Titans). I've gone over every combination from the 8-7 teams' potential results next week in the playoff picture thread, and I believe the only way we miss the playoffs is if we lose to the Bengals and the Titans, Bills and Chargers all win.
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Wouldn't surprise me if all 3 did win depending on if the Jaguars rest some of their key players.
 
Inqui

Inqui

Pro Bowler
mc_red23 said:
Wouldn't surprise me if all 3 did win depending on if the Jaguars rest some of their key players.
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Yeah, at this point it's hard to trust the Jags (who I suspect will be more likely than not to rest players) and Dolphins, which means should we lose we'd be casting our lot with the Raiders - which in itself seems a little optimistic but at least they hate the Chargers and they'd have nothing to lose by trying to play spoiler.
 
balfan23

balfan23

MVP
Inqui said:
I got our conference record wrong in the above post. I had us at 8-4 where a loss to the Bengals would put us at 7-5 (and worse than the Titans). I've gone over every combination from the 8-7 teams' potential results next week in the playoff picture thread, and I believe the only way we miss the playoffs is if we lose to the Bengals and the Titans, Bills and Chargers all win.
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I don't think the Chargers matter. I think if we're in a 3 way tie with bills and Titans we're out. According to ESPN playoff machine we lose on strength of victory.

I really think we only have 3 ways in 1) we win or tie 2) Bills lose or tie or 3) Titans lose or tie. That will suck if Jags throw away one of our pathways to playoffs.
 
Inqui

Inqui

Pro Bowler
balfan23 said:
I don't think the Chargers matter. I think if we're in a 3 way tie with bills and Titans we're out. According to ESPN playoff machine we lose on strength of victory.

I really think we only have 3 ways in 1) we win or tie 2) Bills lose or tie or 3) Titans lose or tie. That will suck if Jags throw away one of our pathways to playoffs.
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I went over that in the playoff picture thread. If we're in a three-way tie with the Bills and Titans the Titans take #5 (conference record) and then the process resets with the remaining teams (in this case a two-way tie with the Bills), so we take #6 over the Bills because of our record against opponents in common. If memory serves the ESPN playoff machine has a couple of tiebreak criteria around the wrong way and plugs them all in at once, which is different to how nfl.com has it.

SoV comes into effect after a three-way tie with the Chargers and Bills (the Bills take #5, then it starts again with a two-team tiebreaker with us and the Chargers) and if there's a four-way tie with the Titans (although in that case the Titans take #5 because of their conference record and then it start again with the three-way tie).
 
Willbacker

Willbacker

Ravens Ring of Honor
Inqui said:
I went over that in the playoff picture thread. If we're in a three-way tie with the Bills and Titans the Titans take #5 (conference record) and then the process resets with the remaining teams (in this case a two-way tie with the Bills), so we take #6 over the Bills because of our record against opponents in common. If memory serves the ESPN playoff machine has a couple of tiebreak criteria around the wrong way and plugs them all in at once, which is different to how nfl.com has it.

SoV comes into effect after a three-way tie with the Chargers and Bills (the Bills take #5, then it starts again with a two-team tiebreaker with us and the Chargers) and if there's a four-way tie with the Titans (although in that case the Titans take #5 because of their conference record and then it start again with the three-way tie).
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I'm getting a headache trying to figger this out. I guess we should just better win.
 
Inqui

Inqui

Pro Bowler
Willbacker said:
I'm getting a headache trying to figger this out. I guess we should just better win.
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http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures
I'll try to explain how I'm understanding this with the example of the Ravens, Bills and Titans finishing at 9-7.

In a three-way tiebreaker it:
1. Goes to a division tiebreaker (everyone's in a different division) then;
2. Goes to a head-to-head sweep (no-one in that group has played everyone else) then;
3. Conference record (the Titans would be 8-4, while the Ravens and Bills would be 7-5).

There's no clear winner from that pool until step 3, at which point the Titans take the #5 seed and get removed from the pool. There are now two teams in the pool (Ravens and Bills), so the process starts again but with a two-way tiebreaker.

We'd then go to a two-team tiebreaker (Ravens and Bills):
1. Head-to-head (we haven't faced each other) then;
2. Conference record (both 7-5 in the AFC) then;
3. Record in common games (they beat the Dolphins twice and beat the Colts for a 3-2 record, while we beat the Raiders, Colts, Dolphins and Bengals, and lost to the Bengals for a 4-1 record).

Chuck in the Chargers and it's a similar story - you go through each step until you can remove a team from the pool, at which point you start again. So with the Chargers in the picture you'd still remove the Titans at step 3 (the Chargers would be 6-6 in the AFC), but then it goes to a three-way tiebreaker because there are three teams still in the pool (Ravens, Bills and Chargers). Does that make more sense?

I'm just grateful the Bengals aren't at 8-7 right now. :p
 
JO_75

JO_75

Hall of Famer
The Texans go for it on 4th & Goal and Yates gift wraps an interception to the Steelers. Bill O'Brien's hot seat just got hotter
 
JO_75

JO_75

Hall of Famer
Steelers now lead 17-0. Hopefully the Raiders/Eagles game is much better. Also noticing Clowney should have killed Ben so many times but refs let the Steelers hold and even wrestle Clowney to the ground.
 
RavensMania

RavensMania

Staff Member
Administrator
JO_75 said:
The Texans go for it on 4th & Goal and Yates gift wraps an interception to the Steelers. Bill O'Brien's hot seat just got hotter
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I think they would be smart to keep him. They saw how the team was with Watson healthy.
 
allblackraven

allblackraven

Hall of Famer
JO_75 said:
The Texans go for it on 4th & Goal and Yates gift wraps an interception to the Steelers. Bill O'Brien's hot seat just got hotter
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I don't know what's wrong with these coaches lately. They had 3rd and 4th from less than foot and played pass both times. I just can't understand that.
 
JO_75

JO_75

Hall of Famer
Wonder what the Steelers will do next week. Do they play to win against Cleveland or do they rest their starters knowing the BYE week is clinched and home field is out of reach?
 
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