The Murphy's Law, The Ugly and The Uglier

[JoeyFlex5]

I'm honestly glad that fell through. Promising talent is not the issue with our secondary, simply adding more to it does not seem like the answer. Spending a 1st to get a player that will not be enough to get us over the hump this year and then require us to make a decision between him, Averett and Peters in the offseason seems like an overly aggressive move.

I'm much happier building on what we have, trying to keep Averett and working out the few big plays they seem to let go every game, then spending the 1st on a OT, OLB, DL.

Well none of those guys were available. We don’t know if we ever would’ve had a shot for von Miller and we don’t know if that trade is even gonna pan out, we don’t know if the fletcher cox rumors were legit, we don’t know if we could’ve gotten a trade for any of the positions you’re talking about. There wasn’t much trade activity this year, teams weren’t trying to trade away guys at key positions

 

[D1City55]

Judon has 9.5 sacks and it's only week 10.....

 

[redrum52]

Judon has 9.5 sacks and it's only week 10.....

He's been disruptive if you watch their games

 

[D1City55]

He's been disruptive if you watch their games

I haven't outside the Cowboys game and he was a monster that game.

 

[D1City55]

Well none of those guys were available. We don’t know if we ever would’ve had a shot for von Miller and we don’t know if that trade is even gonna pan out, we don’t know if the fletcher cox rumors were legit, we don’t know if we could’ve gotten a trade for any of the positions you’re talking about. There wasn’t much trade activity this year, teams weren’t trying to trade away guys at key positions

We had literally no cap this year, EDC tried his best but who the hell would take Xavien's cap hit? I'm not mad we tried to get him since we might need another No.2 CB soon and Howard will give this team what they're badly missing which is a playmaker. With no cap space, there was no way we were going to make a move. IDK why people are disappointed in an inevitable. There were also reports that no one was giving up OLs, even back ups and the Panthers couldn't even make a move for one; that and RB are the only moves that should have been taken seriously but no one was going to give up either of those to a conference rival.

 

[rossihunter2]

so i wonder if we've just been missing this so-called "blueprint" about how to beat this offence because it's not been super successful before...

i saw on the broadcast around an hour ago that the Broncos blitzed against the ravens 27 times including 13 zero-blitzes in that week 4 game...
their next highest blitzing game was against washington with 16...

clearly something that teams have identified much earlier than this dolphins and bengals game and yet the broncos was one of our more comfortable games

so ive gone back to see what we did against the broncos that was so successful especially as they were the team that truly set the blueprint for killing our running game:
1) we ran a lot of play-action and passing in general on 1st down - we've been a really bad 3rd down team this year so it's been really important to stay ahead of the chains to stop teams teeing off on our tackles and being able to play at the sticks on the backend
2) we spread the receivers out - miami was consistently able to tee off because we kept everyone in tight in close formations which makes it harder to identify the blitzers and also means they have less distance to travel to blitz... against the broncos we were frequently in empty and spread out which makes it really tough to have more than 5 or 6 guys lined up at the LoS - makes it much easier to sort out the protections too
3) this is the frustrating one: we had some guys run slants and drags in behind the void in the zero-blitz and were able to convert multiple times or get good gains

 

[JoeyFlex5]

so i wonder if we've just been missing this so-called "blueprint" about how to beat this offence because it's not been super successful before...

i saw on the broadcast around an hour ago that the Broncos blitzed against the ravens 27 times including 13 zero-blitzes in that week 4 game...
their next highest blitzing game was against washington with 16...

clearly something that teams have identified much earlier than this dolphins and bengals game and yet the broncos was one of our more comfortable games

so ive gone back to see what we did against the broncos that was so successful especially as they were the team that truly set the blueprint for killing our running game:
1) we ran a lot of play-action and passing in general on 1st down - we've been a really bad 3rd down team this year so it's been really important to stay ahead of the chains to stop teams teeing off on our tackles and being able to play at the sticks on the backend
2) we spread the receivers out - miami was consistently able to tee off because we kept everyone in tight in close formations which makes it harder to identify the blitzers and also means they have less distance to travel to blitz... against the broncos we were frequently in empty and spread out which makes it really tough to have more than 5 or 6 guys lined up at the LoS - makes it much easier to sort out the protections too
3) this is the frustrating one: we had some guys run slants and drags in behind the void in the zero-blitz and were able to convert multiple times or get good gains

So in other words, Roman really fucked this one. Yes the players were sloppy as shit, the line was horrid, passes were dropped, Lamar missed some and played like his hair was on fire, but the overarching theme here is, Roman has done well all year but really shit the bed in every way against Miami

 

[rossihunter2]

So in other words, Roman really fucked this one. Yes the players were sloppy as shit, the line was horrid, passes were dropped, Lamar missed some and played like his hair was on fire, but the overarching theme here is, Roman has done well all year but really shit the bed in every way against Miami

and i think that's happened for a couple of reasons - obviously you want to do better

but i think the lack of preparation available for a TNF road game is tough to make up for

and especially when a team throws you a wrinkle like this at an unprecedented rate (blitzing at rates not seen since 2015 by any team)

we should have done far better - that's roman but also the players executing too (because the blitzing only becomes an issue if the players dont execute on those running downs etc.)

but im less worried about having the tools to overcome this stuff now - because we've already done it - and there's not many teams around that even have the inclination or the corners to be able to do to us what the dolphins did

not many teams have the DBs to be able to do that - and it helps when your rookie free safety has the best game of his life

 

[JoeyFlex5]

and i think that's happened for a couple of reasons - obviously you want to do better

but i think the lack of preparation available for a TNF road game is tough to make up for

and especially when a team throws you a wrinkle like this at an unprecedented rate (blitzing at rates not seen since 2015 by any team)

we should have done far better - that's roman but also the players executing too (because the blitzing only becomes an issue if the players dont execute on those running downs etc.)

but im less worried about having the tools to overcome this stuff now - because we've already done it - and there's not many teams around that even have the inclination or the corners to be able to do to us what the dolphins did

not many teams have the DBs to be able to do that - and it helps when your rookie free safety has the best game of his life

Yeah that’s why I haven’t been tripping on this one. That game felt like a ridiculous outlier.

 

[Adreme]

Yeah that’s why I haven’t been tripping on this one. That game felt like a ridiculous outlier.

I have not gone particularly crazy because the entire NFL has lost its collective mind over the past 2 weeks when you look at all the results: Lions tying Steelers, Pats blowing out Browns, Washington beating Tampa, Vikings beating Chargers, Panthers blowing out Cardinals, Titans beating Rams, Broncos blowing out Cowboys, Jaguars beating the Bills, Browns blowing out the Bengals, and Falcons beating the Saints. Like these were all supposed to be games that did not go that way because in a lot cases the opponents were bad but the NFL teams are seemingly falling apart in the midseason and I expect most will right the ship but the past 2 weeks have been weird.

 

[rossihunter2]

Yeah that’s why I haven’t been tripping on this one. That game felt like a ridiculous outlier.

if it happens again and we have no solution again in-game - that's when ill be worried

that's when i'll go from barely concerned to full-blown panic mode

 

[Deebo813]

Yeah that’s why I haven’t been tripping on this one. That game felt like a ridiculous outlier.

I was thinking the same but them again, when you think about it.. we legit couldnt adjust to what they were doing. Game planning for it is much easier but adjusting mid game is what im worried about. They actually gave us the cover 0 look with no disguise and we couldnt get around it… whats gonna happen when teams start disguising it? Thats whats really concerning

 

[rossihunter2]

I was thinking the same but them again, when you think about it.. we legit couldnt adjust to what they were doing. Game planning for it is much easier but adjusting mid game is what im worried about. They actually gave us the cover 0 look with no disguise and we couldnt get around it… whats gonna happen when teams start disguising it? Thats whats really concerning

i mean tbf - they didnt just flat out rush everyone the whole time - part of what made it tricky was that they showed us cover-0 like 70% of the time but often they dropped guys from the line (in a way that's very familiar to us fans because we've seen Wink call plays like that with guys zone dropping from all over the place for the last 4 seasons)

it's not quite as simple as just them lining up in cover-0 and then blitzing everyone every time

but we had to find a way to punish them for lining up like that and creating that confusion up front

 

[Truth]

Judon's having perhaps his best pass-rushing season, and it's good to see, but I'm personally don't see him as our missing ingredient. The pressure numbers are gaudy but they're also largely situational. If you take out screens and roll outs, he's 30th in win rate among edge rushers with significant snaps. Still frustrating to watch in the running game.

 

[rossihunter2]

Judon's having perhaps his best pass-rushing season, and it's good to see, but I'm personally don't see him as our missing ingredient. The pressure numbers are gaudy but they're also largely situational. If you take out screens and roll outs, he's 30th in win rate among edge rushers with significant snaps. Still frustrating to watch in the running game.

people panicking that we lost him
he's got the sack numbers he never quite got here - but pressures, hits etc. are all in line with his production here

worth looking at his sack production and there's lots of "low quality" (to quote brandon thorn) and coverage sacks in his count this year - that's not to say he hasnt been great, it's just to contextualise and point out that he's not playing much different to how he played with the ravens

id say the biggest difference is his snap count has gone up and the pats use a lot less rotation at EDGE than we do

 

[rmcjacket23]

i mean tbf - they didnt just flat out rush everyone the whole time - part of what made it tricky was that they showed us cover-0 like 70% of the time but often they dropped guys from the line (in a way that's very familiar to us fans because we've seen Wink call plays like that with guys zone dropping from all over the place for the last 4 seasons)

it's not quite as simple as just them lining up in cover-0 and then blitzing everyone every time

but we had to find a way to punish them for lining up like that and creating that confusion up front

If you read Ken's game notes for the Oline, one thing he pointed out, which he felt was somewhat "alarming" is that we seemingly just "adjusted" by going max protect, i.e. we just kept trying to match numbers. We kept all of our TE's and RBs in as blockers, instead of either chipping or having them release into the flats, where they would have likely been uncovered.

Basically, the Dolphins usually brought one additional rusher than we could block (or more) on most occasions. And we never did anything about it. It sounds odd to basically allow free rushers, but many teams usually try to chip and release somebody who would likely be uncovered in a 3-4 WR set. We seemingly never did that.

The other "smart" aspect of what the Dolphins did was overload the Tackles and drop into coverage in the middle. So when they blitzed, they rarely blitzed up the middle. They brought pressure off the edge, and then they dropped some of their interior Dlineman back into coverage frequently to flood the middle.
Here's one quote:
"Nose tackle Adam Butler dropped 18 times (!!!) to coverage which is close to as many times as Martindale might drop all Ravens IDL combined in a full season."

Also worth pointing out that we didn't take advantage of situations where Lamar did have ample time and space. We only averaged 6 yards/play on the 12 snaps where Lamar had sufficient time to throw.

Also, a good call by you on what you said earlier about the pressure rate. This was NOT the heaviest blitz pressure Lamar has seen this year. The Broncos and Chargers both brought significantly more pressure in terms of numbers (rushing 5+) against Lamar. Lamar was very good against Denver, but actually, was not particularly effective (at least as a passer) against LAC... 6.2 YPA, 167 passing yards, two turnovers, 3 sacks. We just dominated in the running game and on defense, so it didn't matter.

 

[rossihunter2]

If you read Ken's game notes for the Oline, one thing he pointed out, which he felt was somewhat "alarming" is that we seemingly just "adjusted" by going max protect, i.e. we just kept trying to match numbers. We kept all of our TE's and RBs in as blockers, instead of either chipping or having them release into the flats, where they would have likely been uncovered.

Basically, the Dolphins usually brought one additional rusher than we could block (or more) on most occasions. And we never did anything about it. It sounds odd to basically allow free rushers, but many teams usually try to chip and release somebody who would likely be uncovered in a 3-4 WR set. We seemingly never did that.

The other "smart" aspect of what the Dolphins did was overload the Tackles and drop into coverage in the middle. So when they blitzed, they rarely blitzed up the middle. They brought pressure off the edge, and then they dropped some of their interior Dlineman back into coverage frequently to flood the middle.
Here's one quote:
"Nose tackle Adam Butler dropped 18 times (!!!) to coverage which is close to as many times as Martindale might drop all Ravens IDL combined in a full season."

Also worth pointing out that we didn't take advantage of situations where Lamar did have ample time and space. We only averaged 6 yards/play on the 12 snaps where Lamar had sufficient time to throw.

Also, a good call by you on what you said earlier about the pressure rate. This was NOT the heaviest blitz pressure Lamar has seen this year. The Broncos and Chargers both brought significantly more pressure in terms of numbers (rushing 5+) against Lamar. Lamar was very good against Denver, but actually, was not particularly effective (at least as a passer) against LAC... 6.2 YPA, 167 passing yards, two turnovers, 3 sacks. We just dominated in the running game and on defense, so it didn't matter.

i do find it odd that we didnt spread the defence out - even if we went heavy personnel with ricard etc. to get that defensive package in and then spread everyone out would have been more effective

max protect is great until it's being dictated by the defence at which point you're just encouraging them to keep teeing off with even less fear of punishment - and if you are going to do that then you have to occasionally throw in a chip and a leaking back or something - murray did that a little against the broncos (albeit was also well covered)

and in terms of ATS - i think what that shows (and ive seen it on the film this week) is that lamar was spooked by those looks that his internal clock was sped up - i saw him flapping in the pocket like he was under pressure from a completely clean pocket before the receivers in hit the breakpoints on one play (one which was highly likely to be recorded as ATS) - the sheer volume of pressure looks i think overwhelmed us and got lamar out of his comfort zone enough that even when they gave us time he was hurried up in his process

they'll all be frustrated when they watch the film but i think that's probably the thing that will frustrate lamar the most - the lack of composure (which isnt normal for him)

 

[JAAM]

I’m sure it’s been said but Sammy didn’t play a single snap after his fumble. Thank fuck.

 

[RavensMania]

This game was building for a while. As disappointing as it was, it was bound to happen.

This is a Ravens team that was incredibly close to losing to the Lions. It took a 4th and 19 conversion, missed delay of game and a record-setting field goal just to defeat Detroit.

This is still a playoff team, but they can't be having many more efforts like this down the stretch

technically we came close to losing to the Lions because of some pretty bad drops that would have been touchdowns from Hollywood. We definitely have played it close to the vest for almost the entire season though.

 

[RavensMania]

I have not gone particularly crazy because the entire NFL has lost its collective mind over the past 2 weeks when you look at all the results: Lions tying Steelers, Pats blowing out Browns, Washington beating Tampa, Vikings beating Chargers, Panthers blowing out Cardinals, Titans beating Rams, Broncos blowing out Cowboys, Jaguars beating the Bills, Browns blowing out the Bengals, and Falcons beating the Saints. Like these were all supposed to be games that did not go that way because in a lot cases the opponents were bad but the NFL teams are seemingly falling apart in the midseason and I expect most will right the ship but the past 2 weeks have been weird.

yes they have and things like this happen every year.