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The 2022 Offseason Thread

It is quiet again on the D-coordinator's job. I know Cullen is being interviewed today. It would be so unfair to interview candidates with a decision already made no? Or is this just the way of the NFL? I cannot believe Harbs would treat his old D-line coach this badly.

More reason to think MacDonald is coming to Baltimore. Looks like Jimmy Harbs asking for Larry Foote to take over as DC.
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Depends on the answer I get from @rossihunter2 and @JoeyFlex5 , is Hill a good fit for us?
Absolutely. He looks like the prototype ravens safety based on what we saw from winks usage, and obviously macdonalds usage of him. He’s a big time athlete, he’s elite lining up at slot corner, has the movement skills to match up slot receivers and the size to take on TEs as well, and he’s an all around pretty competent safety in general, quick to read what’s happening in front of him, breaks all over the field with great pursuit and often turns what looks like a big gain into a modest gain by just eating up ground really fast for a tackle. Makes plays in the intermediate pass game.

is not a ball hawk or a single high type, has the range for it but just doesn’t excel there, probably because he appears to be more of a reactionary kinda player.

if we landed him in round 2 I’d lose my shit with excitement, if we took him at 14 I’d be livid, if we traded back and got him in the mid-late 20s I’d be unhappy. He’s a good safety for todays nfl being a potentially elite nickel db and starting caliber safety at the same time, and he’s a great fit here, but first round I just don’t know
 
Depends on the answer I get from @rossihunter2 and @JoeyFlex5 , is Hill a good fit for us?

one of my favourite prospects so far - just not sure he's going to be in range of any of our picks - ive got a 1st round grade on him but i dont think he's going to be worthy of the 14th pick

but i think he's long gone by 45

my notes on Hill so far:

- 6’0 192lbs

- Fluid athlete – great hips, good feet, explosive and fast – awesome burst, long speed and change of direction skills

- Not particularly long

- Versatile alignments – can man cover out of the nickel, play split-safety, in the box, middle of the field, even sometimes at outside corner etc.

- Oily hips and great footwork – flexible athlete

- Bundle of energy and effort – will chase down plays from the other side of the field and get in on the play

- Great awareness in zone coverage – understands his leverage, his help and what the whole field in front and behind him look like – just consistently demonstrating real intelligence and quick processing

- Route-recognition, play-recognition – good feel – pre-snap recognition - probably good film-study – have seen him bait QBs into poor throws so that he can make plays on the ball

- Good ball skills

- Intelligence and communication pops off the screen – often communicating and signaling pre and post-snap – clearly leading that secondary to keep guys in the right place to help guys pick up and pass off receivers in the coverage

- Breaks on the ball like lightning when he decides to go – great closing speed

- You see that explosion on blitzes too

- Aggressive attacking the LoS in the running game – will take on pullers with force and good technique – will run the alley and attack screens with effectiveness

- Physical – not backing down from a contest or a block

- Can overreact to jabs in man coverage and bite – technique off the release could be better especially when lined up at the LoS – has a tendency to try and get overly-physical and can lose his rhythm – has good recovery quickness and the ability to flip his hips to mirror

- Pedal is a little choppy – think that might be partly why he sometimes ends up opening up early in man coverage and can delay his break by a fraction

- Really good staying in phase but has the speed to recover if a receiver gets a step – probably why he gets aggressive at the LoS because he trusts himself to recover

- Good wrap tackler
 
Well, if I'm Lamar, there's no way I'm taking something in the $30-35M range.
Deshaun Watson is at $39M
Dak is at $40M
Josh Allen is at $43M

The lowest case scenario is you argue he's in "that range", which would put him right around $40M on average. Lamar has ver little reason to accept anything that doesn't have a 4 in front of it at this point, and I think the Ravens would know they're wasting their time with offers below that.

It's going to be $40M+ in AAV, and its going to be north of $100M in guaranteed money.
and I don't see him making less than 42m
 
mahomes made more mistakes during that period but the chiefs offence was still one of the most efficient and explosive offences in the league at that point - just their defence was horrible until about midseason
There were games where they lost ugly, and hit a wall in games where that were low scoring, Greenbay, New York, Dallas, Denver...ect, quite a sizable amount of games. There's not much you can attribute to injuries on that side either. I've watched a few of those and don't recall many big plays either. Drives stagnated and they weren't able to do much.
 
stopping the run is not that big a deal against playoff offences anymore - if you cant get pressure and/or you cant cover then it doesnt matter what you're doing against the run

and if we build a fortress (which i agree we should build a wall for him) it's not going to be necessarily to run the ball more - if anything it should be to protect lamar so he can go bombs away with this receiving corps we've built
If you can't stop the run it will be very difficult to rush the passer. We haven't had a ferocious pass rush for a long time but we've been able to get away with it by being able to stop the run and cover. None of our defense since Jackson took over as the starter have been particularly impressive in the pass rush. I do agree that we need to invest more in the pass rush, I've been preaching that but I would not want to lose our effectiveness against the run in order to build up a pass rush, even with a four-man front that can rush the passer, if a team is able to run it with success and ease then your pass rush won't be nearly as effective as it's been all year long.
 
There were games where they lost ugly, and hit a wall in games where that were low scoring, Greenbay, New York, Dallas, Denver...ect, quite a sizable amount of games. There's not much you can attribute to injuries on that side either. I've watched a few of those and don't recall many big plays either. Drives stagnated and they weren't able to do much.

that's more about mahomes adjusting to the way teams were playing them - teams have been happy to give him the underneath stuff and he's not wanted to take it earlier in the year - once he started just taking that stuff they've looked like the same old chiefs ever since
 
If you can't stop the run it will be very difficult to rush the passer. We haven't had a ferocious pass rush for a long time but we've been able to get away with it by being able to stop the run and cover. None of our defense since Jackson took over as the starter have been particularly impressive in the pass rush. I do agree that we need to invest more in the pass rush, I've been preaching that but I would not want to lose our effectiveness against the run in order to build up a pass rush, even with a four-man front that can rush the passer, if a team is able to run it with success and ease then your pass rush won't be nearly as effective as it's been all year long.

the best team the ravens have ever put on the field (in 2019) had the worst run defence in franchise history and the only time we've ever given up more than 100 yards per game on the ground and that was despite teams not getting much of a chance to run on us because we were blowing teams out and because we destroyed teams in time of possession - think we were something like 21st in the league in ypc

that defence was a top 5 defence - top 3 in points, top 4 in yards, 7th in turnovers, 2nd in first downs, 6th in air yards (and net air yards per attempt), 4th in points per drive and 5th in percentage of drives that ended with a turnover

in 2021 not a single team ran the ball more than they passed it - more than 3/4 of the league is passing it more than 55% of the time, and nearly a 1/3 of the league passed more than 60% of the time

teams dont like running the ball unless the defence is literally begging them to do it because passing is more likely to give you better outcomes - the ravens in 2019 and somewhat in 2020 were the exception that proved the rule - it took an historic running game to even make running the ball relevant in an explosive offence

however you build your defence you have to build it around the passing game - i would sacrifice lots of yards on the ground if it meant being more effective in the passing game on defence and partly that's because the passing game is where your defence is more likely to make big plays too - interceptions and sacks dont happen on running plays
 
Why are you concerned about stopping the run when pretty much the majority of the teams you'll need to beat to get to a SB have the ability to just throw the ball up and down the field on you at will?

Like stopping the run will help you beat Cleveland. And probably Pittsburgh. I don't know how super valuable it is to beating Buffalo, or Kansas City, or Cincinnati, or Los Angeles Chargers. Those are the teams I'm worried about for the next 5-10 years.

I'd rather have a strong secondary, a solid interior pass rush (which we don't have at all) and be mediocre or even below average against the run. I think that defense is more competitive in this NFL climate.

I don't think you can be terrible against the run and win, but I don't think you need to be great at it either. 49ers, Rams, Bengals, Chiefs. I don't think any of these teams has a great run defense at all. By rankings, they're generally fine, but they all average over 100 yards rushing/game allowed.

Kansas City is 30th in YPC allowed. Green Bay was 28th. New England, Dallas, Cincinnati, Buffalo all in the bottom half of the league.
Oh don't get me wrong here, I think developing a pass rush is very important and I've been vocal about it for a while but I don't think we're going to be able to develop a four-man rush comparable to certain playoff-caliber teams with the lack of cap space and holes to go along. I would love to develop a four-man rush but the interior of the DL is in trouble if we lose Campbell and Williams with no obvious successor there. It's going to be challenging to improve on certain aspects of the defense this off-season and the FO has their work cut out for them. Losing Campbell and Williams and not replacing them would be a huge blow. The 49ers and Rams are pretty good against the run. Bucs weren't all that great in the secondary and even though they had a great pass rush last year they were elite at stopping the run.

A lot of those teams listed have explosive offenses and can win a shoot-out. Greenbay playoffs losses in recent memory mostly came off the heels of their inability to stop the run. I'm not saying we have to be elite, but we can't afford a massive drop-off with this personnel.
 
If you can't stop the run it will be very difficult to rush the passer. We haven't had a ferocious pass rush for a long time but we've been able to get away with it by being able to stop the run and cover. None of our defense since Jackson took over as the starter have been particularly impressive in the pass rush. I do agree that we need to invest more in the pass rush, I've been preaching that but I would not want to lose our effectiveness against the run in order to build up a pass rush, even with a four-man front that can rush the passer, if a team is able to run it with success and ease then your pass rush won't be nearly as effective as it's been all year long.
Why do you think a team needs a good run D in order to generate pressure on a QB?
I see plenty of teams in this league that have a good pass rush with a mediocre or worse run defense.
Like I said earlier... you can't be terrible against the run. But if this team gave up 4.5 YPC instead of 4.0 YPC, I don't think it would prohibit them from making the SB. There really aren't that many teams in this league that can beat you, consistently, by running the ball.
 
Why do you think a team needs a good run D in order to generate pressure on a QB?
I see plenty of teams in this league that have a good pass rush with a mediocre or worse run defense.
Like I said earlier... you can't be terrible against the run. But if this team gave up 4.5 YPC instead of 4.0 YPC, I don't think it would prohibit them from making the SB. There really aren't that many teams in this league that can beat you, consistently, by running the ball.
I think he’s trying to say something more like if you can’t make teams somewhat one dimensional it’s hard to rush the passer.

kind of a dated way of thinking but until pretty recently it was true. Like if a team can run the ball all over you then it’s hard to call a defense with the purpose of covering receivers and rushing the qb because then they’ll continue to gash you. The modern nfl though it’s more about your offense applying pressure to the opposing offense, turning many games into shootouts, which is why that school of thought is phasing out
 
Oh don't get me wrong here, I think developing a pass rush is very important and I've been vocal about it for a while but I don't think we're going to be able to develop a four-man rush comparable to certain playoff-caliber teams with the lack of cap space and holes to go along. I would love to develop a four-man rush but the interior of the DL is in trouble if we lose Campbell and Williams with no obvious successor there. It's going to be challenging to improve on certain aspects of the defense this off-season and the FO has their work cut out for them. Losing Campbell and Williams and not replacing them would be a huge blow. The 49ers and Rams are pretty good against the run. Bucs weren't all that great in the secondary and even though they had a great pass rush last year they were elite at stopping the run.

A lot of those teams listed have explosive offenses and can win a shoot-out. Greenbay playoffs losses in recent memory mostly came off the heels of their inability to stop the run. I'm not saying we have to be elite, but we can't afford a massive drop-off with this personnel.
Its not going to happen in one year. Nobody ever thought it would. But I don't want to replace Brandon Williams with Brandon Williams. I want to replace Brandon Williams with somebody who will actually play on passing downs and not be on the sideline, like BWill has been for years. It might take two guys to do that. It might take two guys to do it, but I know I can get a pretty good run stopping lineman at really any point in the draft or even cheaply in FA. That's not a concern for me.

Focus on getting Dlineman who can get to the QB is a priority for the offseason. Its probably the second biggest priority behind upgrading the Oline. We certainly have cap and draft resources to make that happen.

And if it means we do a worse in the run game but better in pass rush, I'm 1000% for it.
 
I think he’s trying to say something more like if you can’t make teams somewhat one dimensional it’s hard to rush the passer.

kind of a dated way of thinking but until pretty recently it was true. Like if a team can run the ball all over you then it’s hard to call a defense with the purpose of covering receivers and rushing the qb because then they’ll continue to gash you. The modern nfl though it’s more about your offense applying pressure to the opposing offense, turning many games into shootouts, which is why that school of thought is phasing out

as you say - that's how it has worked in the past - but that's not how the nfl works anymore - teams dont run the ball to set up the pass anymore
teams dont get enough value out of running the ball to bother setting it up - the biggest value the running game has now is in creating space and time off play-action and in the psychological impact of allowing OL to lean on and wear defenders down to slow the rush

running the ball's great but the nfl has reversed in that you dont run the ball to set up the pass, now you run the ball to keep yourself from being 1-dimensional and to take advantage of favourable looks (if you can)
 
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I think he’s trying to say something more like if you can’t make teams somewhat one dimensional it’s hard to rush the passer.

kind of a dated way of thinking but until pretty recently it was true. Like if a team can run the ball all over you then it’s hard to call a defense with the purpose of covering receivers and rushing the qb because then they’ll continue to gash you. The modern nfl though it’s more about your offense applying pressure to the opposing offense, turning many games into shootouts, which is why that school of thought is phasing out
Well realistically, defenses making a team one dimensional doesn't really happen anymore. There's not a defense in this league that exists that can simply stop one unit from doing something on one side of the ball. There's no defense good enough to completely halt a teams running game, and there's no defense that's anywhere close to halting a quality passing attack.

Like we've kind of already seen the flaws in these philosophies. The 2019 Ravens were it. 6-7 minute drives, bludgeoning teams over and over again with the run, hit a bunch of play action and deep shots, win a bunch of games.

While I loved that offense, some pretty glaring holes started to occur, and were amplified in the playoffs. A mistake or two that is capitalized on by your opponent suddenly puts you down double digits, and now YOU are the team that's one dimensional.

Would also point out that the 2012 Ravens were historically one of the worst run defenses in the history of the franchise.

Pretty much three things I care about from a defense in the modern NFL...
1. Make their QB uncomfortable, which more and more, means interior pass rush.
2. Force turnovers.
3. Don't suck at the rest

Anything else you do well is a bonus. You can't be bad on an entire side of the ball, but you certainly don't have to be great at it.
 
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