The 1st half, The Refs and The Collapse

[rossihunter2]

surprised 2021 was better than 2019. Really surprised actually.

my guess is that 2021 number is going to be helped significantly by some of the comebacks - i imagine some of those will have been well outside of 4th and 2
we also ran a bunch of option with legit QB pulls with Huntley in the backfield and got great results with that later in the year

 

[rossihunter2]

I don't disagree, but that was three years ago, 2019... we made it when we went for it very consistently that year. If we are still playing on analytics from that season, we need to re-calibrate. If someone can find it would be interesting to know the year by year stats.

we're not though
1 of the examples of memorable plays i mentioned was from last year

it sucks that we're at 40% 4th down conversion this year but it's a 4 week sample size and is situational as crazy

 

[rossihunter2]

I would caution that turnovers are volatile and that you can't rely on your opponents to make mistakes as a form of good defense. I'm not sure what the numbers look like year to year, but I'd imagine turnovers jump around.

You're not always going to get a tipped ball interception and it's probably even rarer to get a fumble by a running back, so you've got to be able to stand on your own without turnovers. Turnovers should just be an extra nice bonus.

i agree on a season by season basis turnovers do normally regress back to the mean generally
but it's not necessarily that you cant play for turnovers - or interceptions at least... tipped passes are of course a big variable and RB fumbles for sure - but having a great post safety breaking on the ball is huge, having guys who are actual playmakers on the ball all over the backend is huge too

marcus williams should have 5 picks - he has 3

im not saying this is going to hold necessarily, but that it's definitely not impossible to structure your defence around finding turnovers - we've got a lot more eyes in the secondary on the QB this year

 

[BoredMarine13]

Look at this quote from Von Miller:

Some of the tendencies that we had maybe thought of throughout the week, they were a little bit different, so we kind of understood, just throughout the game, that if they were in certain formations, if they were in certain personnel groups, this is what they were doing. Early on in the game, we were still trying to figure it out, but as we got through the game, and you started to see plays repeat itself, we were able to kind of settle down and see the same plays over and over again, and, like I said, make the plays when we had to.

Seems to me this is the reason we come out guns blazing then stall in the second half. Coming from the horses mouth the same plays are repeated over and over so the opposing team adjusts and stops the offense.

O yea here we go, @Davesta get the torches. It’s fire Roman time!

 

[RavensMania]

O yea here we go, @Davesta get the torches. It’s fire Roman time!

and when Likely is on the field it is Likely a pass....over 80% of the time. This week was 91%

 

[Davesta]

O yea here we go, @Davesta get the torches. It’s fire Roman time!

Bro… it’s the same story. Greg Roman recycles the same plays 1st half to 2nd half. ESPN made fun of his ass for doing this



I’m sick of Greg Roman. Harbs can kick rocks too. The master of Rah-Rah and special teams. Can only do so much in-game adjustments for special teams mofo.

*end rant*

 

[drjohnnyfever]

we're not though
1 of the examples of memorable plays i mentioned was from last year

it sucks that we're at 40% 4th down conversion this year but it's a 4 week sample size and is situational as crazy

One or two memorable against how many that make this seem like it's not the lock 75-80% some on the team and around here think? That's the point in questioning it. How many outs to the right flat did we see fail to Andrews over the past couple years on 4th? I don't think I'd be complaining with others if success weren't more common than failure at this point. I'm not saying that because I expect you to respond. I'm just saying that it's surprising that it's only marginally better than 50-50 overall, and I'm not as willing to forgive as you seem to be on this year's paltry 40% just because it's 4 games in. It's like a gambler thinking this is the one I'm going to change my luck on and then bunkos out.

I get aggressiveness. But it seems to me we need to take a step back and play football sometimes too. Field position, taking points when you can...

 

[drjohnnyfever]

Bro… it’s the same story. Greg Roman recycles the same plays 1st half to 2nd half. ESPN made fun of his ass for doing this



I’m sick of Greg Roman. Harbs can kick rocks too. The master of Rah-Rah and special teams. Can only do so much in-game adjustments for special teams mofo.

*end rant*

I'd love to be able to love and laugh respond, because this is exactly how I feel!

 

[OURavensFan]

Lol where did I say fire Roman? I admit the offense has improved a lot since last year. The issue is his lack of ability to adjust is what I was getting at.

Wasn’t saying you per se, but they’ll feed on that lack of adjustments to attack his scheme and style

 

[Varkcus]

The stat on ESPN this morning was that Lamar is 27/36 in converting 4th and 2 or less. So its basically right at 75%. I think Orlovsky referenced 80%.
That doesn't equate for area on the field, though.

He's 2/5 this year on 4th down, that's 4th down from any distance but I would guess most of those are from 1 to 3 yards.

Allen on the other hand is 6/7. They seem to go for it on the regular from 4th and short. I read they've even done it in their own territory.

With QB's like Lamar and Allen you should be able to convert 4th and short on a consistent basis that's why I think it was a good choice to go for it on 4th and 2 as the thinking was even if we didn't get it, the Bills would have the ball on our 2, obviously it blew up on us.

 

[rossihunter2]

One or two memorable against how many that make this seem like it's not the lock 75-80% some on the team and around here think? That's the point in questioning it. How many outs to the right flat did we see fail to Andrews over the past couple years on 4th? I don't think I'd be complaining with others if success weren't more common than failure at this point. I'm not saying that because I expect you to respond. I'm just saying that it's surprising that it's only marginally better than 50-50 overall, and I'm not as willing to forgive as you seem to be on this year's paltry 40% just because it's 4 games in. It's like a gambler thinking this is the one I'm going to change my luck on and then bunkos out.

I get aggressiveness. But it seems to me we need to take a step back and play football sometimes too. Field position, taking points when you can...

here's the data we've been waiting for



basically the ravens have been great on 4th down
havent really had many short 4th and goals since 2019 at all (only 1)

but have struggled generally in short yardage since 2019 - it seems like people are conflating those failures with 4th down and confusing the 2

 

[rossihunter2]

in 2020 we found success in short yardage late in the year with 22 personnel but with Gus and JK as the backs - we also found success in the passing game that way too

not expecting that from gus straight away - he wasnt known for his explosion albeit he became more athletic and explosive as he spent longer with the ravens but it'll likely take some time for him to get close to that 2020 level of explosion

but hopefully he can still give us a boost in short yardage and between the tackles when he gets back to healthy

 

[RavensMania]

in 2020 we found success in short yardage late in the year with 22 personnel but with Gus and JK as the backs - we also found success in the passing game that way too

not expecting that from gus straight away - he wasnt known for his explosion albeit he became more athletic and explosive as he spent longer with the ravens but it'll likely take some time for him to get close to that 2020 level of explosion

but hopefully he can still give us a boost in short yardage and between the tackles when he gets back to healthy

can't wait to have Gus back. Hopefully he regains his form, because JK and Gus are a great one two punch and with a healthy Hill that would be a good tandem.

 

[JoeyFlex5]

Glass half full

This doesn’t take ANYTHING into consideration, like the pressures and penetrations he did give up but weren’t finished, and the help he had, but REGARDLESS of all that it’s an incredibly good sign, at the end of the day he didn’t let his qb get hit against a first ballot HOF edge rusher who’s almost still in his prime(honestly, dude hasn’t slowed down but half a tick since 2015) and that’s a goddamn good start for a 4th round project who had as much SPECIAL potential as any blue chip player in the draft.

I was a huge faalele fan on these boards and I’m so hype to see him playing alright, he definitely still needs multiple years of development but I think he’s gonna be a really good one.

 

[RavensMania]

This doesn’t take ANYTHING into consideration, like the pressures and penetrations he did give up but weren’t finished, and the help he had, but REGARDLESS of all that it’s an incredibly good sign, at the end of the day he didn’t let his qb get hit against a first ballot HOF edge rusher who’s almost still in his prime(honestly, dude hasn’t slowed down but half a tick since 2015) and that’s a goddamn good start for a 4th round project who had as much SPECIAL potential as any blue chip player in the draft.

I was a huge faalele fan on these boards and I’m so hype to see him playing alright, he definitely still needs multiple years of development but I think he’s gonna be a really good one.

and yet none of us saw him playing left tackle. What the hell was he available in the fourth round for. Too many GM's overthinking it.

he allowed 3 hurries btw.

 

[rossihunter2]

This doesn’t take ANYTHING into consideration, like the pressures and penetrations he did give up but weren’t finished, and the help he had, but REGARDLESS of all that it’s an incredibly good sign, at the end of the day he didn’t let his qb get hit against a first ballot HOF edge rusher who’s almost still in his prime(honestly, dude hasn’t slowed down but half a tick since 2015) and that’s a goddamn good start for a 4th round project who had as much SPECIAL potential as any blue chip player in the draft.

I was a huge faalele fan on these boards and I’m so hype to see him playing alright, he definitely still needs multiple years of development but I think he’s gonna be a really good one.

watching him through 2 weeks you can see how far he's come already
idk that it's gonna be as many years of development as we were worried it might

2023 might be the year tbh with a good offseason

 

[rossihunter2]

morgan moses has got caught lunging like this a few times this season - happened a few times in short yardage vs the dolphins too
he's played well at times, and has been pretty good in pass pro but has been guilty of being the guy who's missed his block multiple times now in some high leverage short yardage situations

 

[D1City55]

I know he exited the game, but Bateman needs the Football more. I know he had his drops but let's be real here, he's by far and away the teams #1 and best WR. You don't just turn away from him because of drops; you don't have many options. Hopefully he's back sunday, with the lack of depth and talent at WR this guy should be getting 10+ targets a game. I can't even argue for a more evenly dispursed target share for the WRs when Proche has been a no-show and we know Robinson isn't worth a bevy of targets. At this point our top two guys are Bateman and Duvernay, they need the football more. It's really starting to get annoying.

 

[cobrajet]

I know the defense played like crap yesterday, but a lot of our defensive players have some age on them and a lot of them have just came back from injury or are banged up. All I am saying is that it certainly didn’t help matters that the offense couldn’t sustain any drives that led to points, which did not allow for any decent breather or for any momentum shift back to us. The offense has also got to do their part.

 

[BoredMarine13]

Bro… it’s the same story. Greg Roman recycles the same plays 1st half to 2nd half. ESPN made fun of his ass for doing this



I’m sick of Greg Roman. Harbs can kick rocks too. The master of Rah-Rah and special teams. Can only do so much in-game adjustments for special teams mofo.

*end rant*

Damn that was sad to watch. I knew he was stubborn but damn