Like you, I think this is what's happening... a young guy is betting on himself. That's cool. Good for him.
The question is tho, are all the people who think the Watson deal was stupid ready for the Ravens to make an even dumber one? There are those on this board who seem to think that Lamar at any cost is ok. I was never on that team, but I do like Lamar and agree that he's the best QB this franchise has ever had. But when I look at the numbers, I don't think it's feasible to pay him what it's gonna take to keep him.
This year's cap is appx 210M. Watson's cap hit this year is low, but let's assume it is what it is for the rest of his contract - appx 54M. That's 1/4 of the total team's allotment on one player. And that is true for the remaining 4 years of his contract.
I'm no cap expert, but even spreading portions of those numbers over other years and paying more on the back end as the cap grows doesn't do much when you are considering it's a quarter and making it larger in later years means it remains at 1/4 or maybe 1/5 of the total.
Listen, I love Lamar. I do. I'm not afraid to comment on things I think he lacks. I did the same with Joe Flacco and I do remember the horror show of this team trying to find QB's after Dilfer and even during the Flacco years; whose contract is STILL panned as one of the worst ever. But are we willing to do the same thing?
Joe's contract hampered us from acquiring supporting talent and talent in other areas. We know this. Are you all saying that you are willing to dedicate a full 1/4 of the total team Cap to one guy? I'm not. I'm Gandalf on the fucking bridge on that. The whole league panned the guarantee the Brownies gave Watson and you're advocating for doing the same thing?! No, I'm sorry across that bridge you shall not cross!
But why did they do it - the Brownies? They did it because they had the space with a young team and they knew that by fouling us up it negotiating Lamar that they could scare us away from signing a good QB. We thought it was bad when Mahommes signed, it's worse now. The questions were the same then, "Can we do it?" I said maybe. Under these circumstances I say, "Thou shall not pass!" It would cripple the ability to field a continually competitive team.
Well couple thoughts on the cap:
1. It'll almost certainly continue to increase. Most expect in the next 2-3 years you'll see a "boom" in the cap because a) the cap is still somewhat artificially low from the Covid years and b) new TV contracts kicking in at the start of 2023.
So its feasible you'll see $20-30M jumps in the cap year-over-year in the near future. And I think you can tell by NFL contracts that the Owners are already expecting that.
2. Watson's current contract calls for $55M cap hits in 2023-2026. That seems high now, but again, if the cap is $260M in 3-4 years, which it very well could be, that doesn't look that prohibitive at all. Paying 20% of the cap on a QB doesn't really prohibit a team from winning a SB or even competing.
For context, the reigning SB champs spent over $45M in salary cap space on QBs last year.
3. The reason teams don't worry about those large cap hits is because if Watson performs like they expect him to, then they'll just sign him to an extension with a year or two left on his deal, which will allow them to lower the cap hit and just add more years to the deal, spreading it out even further.
Not to mention that his contract is basically all salary, so they have easy restructuring they can do any year they need cap space.
The reality is that players like this, at positions like this, for these kinds of deals, the cap isn't a huge concern. Extensions can be done, restructures can be done, and the position is just so valuable that teams don't care about if the player takes up 15,20, even 25% of the cap.
The only REAL question with Lamar is how much guaranteed money will you give him. And that'll come down to team preference and risk factors. Cap isn't as big of a concern for NFL Owners, because cap isn't real. It's fictitious. It doesn't impact the companies bottom line. Management and especially Ownership would need to consider whether guaranteeing $250M or whatever it would be to come in higher than Watson is an investment they want to make in Lamar.
