The 2023 Offseason Thread

[Adreme]

OK, and that's where we disagree. A "bust" isn't changeable. You either are or you aren't. There's no "well maybe they'll turn it around". Its definitive or not at all.

Nothing is unchanging though. By that logic you have to wait at least 10 years to evaluate players in a draft because at any given point they could turn it around and that just is a nonsensical way to look at it. Geno Smith was a bust. Now he is a good player. Zach Wilson has been a huge bust but he could turn it around. The same is true of Josh Rosen.

Conversely that would mean that no player can be called a success because they might suddenly get worse. A far less common scenario but not unheard of (Ezekiel Elliot being great for 2 years average for 1 then just dropping off a cliff comes to mind). Therefore using your metric you cannot discuss or evaluate any player because at any given point they can change because they absolutely will change. Whether it is for the better or worse is unknown but they will change so any discussion of players is pointless.

 

[rmcjacket23]

Nothing is unchanging though. By that logic you have to wait at least 10 years to evaluate players in a draft because at any given point they could turn it around and that just is a nonsensical way to look at it. Geno Smith was a bust. Now he is a good player. Zach Wilson has been a huge bust but he could turn it around. The same is true of Josh Rosen.

Conversely that would mean that no player can be called a success because they might suddenly get worse. A far less common scenario but not unheard of (Ezekiel Elliot being great for 2 years average for 1 then just dropping off a cliff comes to mind). Therefore using your metric you cannot discuss or evaluate any player because at any given point they can change because they absolutely will change. Whether it is for the better or worse is unknown but they will change so any discussion of players is pointless.

Pretty much yes.
Or you can call a player a bust if they don't provide benefit to your team.
Geno Smith was a bust for the Jets, because he achieved none of the objectives they wanted. If he plays better for somebody else, that's fine, but what does that do for the Jets?

Darren Waller was a bust here. What does him being good in Vegas do for the Ravens?

And yes, this would precisely be the idea that fans should just wait longer to evaluate players. I don't think I have to provide the long, long, long list of Ravens draft picks who did nothing for 2, 3 years, and then all of the sudden became high end players towards the back end of their rookie deals. Some of them got extensions here (Bowser), others went on to play well elsewhere.

If they adopted your model, they would have been labeled as busts almost immediately, and then magically "revised" to non-bust status when they actually start playing well. Doesn't sound like a player problem to me. Sounds like a fan problem. Fans have the option to just be more patient.

My model assesses the entirety of their tenure on a team. Not a short-term metric that flips and flops whenever its convenient. Zeke is never going to be a "bust" for the Cowboys, because they got everything they imagined out of him, and then some. Sure, he'll eventually suck, but does that mean the Cowboys should have never drafted him because he was great for 5 years but terrible for the last two?

 

[JoeyFlex5]

Pretty much yes.
Or you can call a player a bust if they don't provide benefit to your team.
Geno Smith was a bust for the Jets, because he achieved none of the objectives they wanted. If he plays better for somebody else, that's fine, but what does that do for the Jets?

Darren Waller was a bust here. What does him being good in Vegas do for the Ravens?

And yes, this would precisely be the idea that fans should just wait longer to evaluate players. I don't think I have to provide the long, long, long list of Ravens draft picks who did nothing for 2, 3 years, and then all of the sudden became high end players towards the back end of their rookie deals. Some of them got extensions here (Bowser), others went on to play well elsewhere.

If they adopted your model, they would have been labeled as busts almost immediately, and then magically "revised" to non-bust status when they actually start playing well. Doesn't sound like a player problem to me. Sounds like a fan problem. Fans have the option to just be more patient.

My model assesses the entirety of their tenure on a team. Not a short-term metric that flips and flops whenever its convenient. Zeke is never going to be a "bust" for the Cowboys, because they got everything they imagined out of him, and then some. Sure, he'll eventually suck, but does that mean the Cowboys should have never drafted him because he was great for 5 years but terrible for the last two?

tHeY nEvEr GoT a SuPeR bOwL oUt Of ZeKe

 

[rmcjacket23]

tHeY nEvEr GoT a SuPeR bOwL oUt Of ZeKe

Cool. I don't think people expect a RB to win them a SB by themselves. They didn't get a SB out of literally any player that's played for them in the last nearly 30 years, so I guess they're all busts too.

O, and Lamar is a bust also (based on this backwards bizarro world).

 

[SaltyDog]

Fair enough. He did have a good playoff game against the Bengals. Mostly a regrettable season.

Mostly regrettable 2 seasons. I would not call him a bust just yet but definitely a disappointment so far.

 

[SaltyDog]

I can't find it but they wrote it

The reason I questioned it was that Fox called the game.

To the point of your post they may be similar in tendencies but definitely not in experience.

 

[ravenslord]

Mostly regrettable 2 seasons. I would not call him a bust just yet but definitely a disappointment so far.

Here's the thing. If Oweh is such an athletic freak like everyone said,how come he is not getting sacks?

 

[RavensMania]

Cool. I don't think people expect a RB to win them a SB by themselves. They didn't get a SB out of literally any player that's played for them in the last nearly 30 years, so I guess they're all busts too.

O, and Lamar is a bust also (based on this backwards bizarro world).

I guess AJ Green is also a bust or Marino for that matter.

 

[rmcjacket23]

Here's the thing. If Oweh is such an athletic freak like everyone said,how come he is not getting sacks?

1. He's a raw athlete, not a technically proficient pass rusher.
2. NFL teams don't typically evaluate pass rushers purely based on sack totals. That's more of a fan-driven thing. Significant pressures can lead to turnovers, incompletions, etc. All of which are wins for the defense.

I think given how long its been since we had taken a first round pass rusher, the bar was probably set a little too high for him. But he's also probably just not quite as good as we hoped he would be.

 

[JoeyFlex5]

Cool. I don't think people expect a RB to win them a SB by themselves. They didn't get a SB out of literally any player that's played for them in the last nearly 30 years, so I guess they're all busts too.

O, and Lamar is a bust also (based on this backwards bizarro world).

No shit lol

 

[Adreme]

Pretty much yes.
Or you can call a player a bust if they don't provide benefit to your team.
Geno Smith was a bust for the Jets, because he achieved none of the objectives they wanted. If he plays better for somebody else, that's fine, but what does that do for the Jets?

Darren Waller was a bust here. What does him being good in Vegas do for the Ravens?

And yes, this would precisely be the idea that fans should just wait longer to evaluate players. I don't think I have to provide the long, long, long list of Ravens draft picks who did nothing for 2, 3 years, and then all of the sudden became high end players towards the back end of their rookie deals. Some of them got extensions here (Bowser), others went on to play well elsewhere.

If they adopted your model, they would have been labeled as busts almost immediately, and then magically "revised" to non-bust status when they actually start playing well. Doesn't sound like a player problem to me. Sounds like a fan problem. Fans have the option to just be more patient.

My model assesses the entirety of their tenure on a team. Not a short-term metric that flips and flops whenever its convenient. Zeke is never going to be a "bust" for the Cowboys, because they got everything they imagined out of him, and then some. Sure, he'll eventually suck, but does that mean the Cowboys should have never drafted him because he was great for 5 years but terrible for the last two?

By that logic trading for Roquan Smith was a mistake because Harrison could have become an all pro because he was only 2 years so it is wrong to evaluate him and replace him so quickly. Similarly the Ravens do not need new WRs because and Proche might suddenly make the combo of Chase and Jefferson look like some 2nd tier WRs. They probably wont but they could and it would be a mistake to evaluate otherwise when they are only 2 or 3 years in. Similarly the Cardinals must have been wrong for dumping Josh Rosen after a year because the evaluation was too quick.

All of that sounds like lunacy because it is. Because you are what you have done and while the only constant in this world is change, you can still evaluate based on what has happened and use that to predict, with reasonable accuracy, what will happen. Teams have not and will not just wait out a full rookie contract before deciding on a player nor do I think would anyone here argue that is the correct tactic because they are willing to label a bust. Also if you are a day 3 pick who was on the team the entire rookie you are not a bust. The goal for day 3 picks is to be backups/fringe starters; for day 2 picks to be solid starter, and for the 1st round picks to be the core of the team.

 

[Dom McRaven]

Cool. I don't think people expect a RB to win them a SB by themselves. They didn't get a SB out of literally any player that's played for them in the last nearly 30 years, so I guess they're all busts too.

O, and Lamar is a bust also (based on this backwards bizarro world).

Lamar is the only exception to this rule because apparently he's a RB too so.......

 

[rmcjacket23]

By that logic trading for Roquan Smith was a mistake because Harrison could have become an all pro because he was only 2 years so it is wrong to evaluate him and replace him so quickly. Similarly the Ravens do not need new WRs because and Proche might suddenly make the combo of Chase and Jefferson look like some 2nd tier WRs. They probably wont but they could and it would be a mistake to evaluate otherwise when they are only 2 or 3 years in. Similarly the Cardinals must have been wrong for dumping Josh Rosen after a year because the evaluation was too quick.

All of that sounds like lunacy because it is. Because you are what you have done and while the only constant in this world is change, you can still evaluate based on what has happened and use that to predict, with reasonable accuracy, what will happen. Teams have not and will not just wait out a full rookie contract before deciding on a player nor do I think would anyone here argue that is the correct tactic because they are willing to label a bust. Also if you are a day 3 pick who was on the team the entire rookie you are not a bust. The goal for day 3 picks is to be backups/fringe starters; for day 2 picks to be solid starter, and for the 1st round picks to be the core of the team.

Actually its different logic. NFL teams are allowed to label somebody a bust (i.e. replace them) because they've seen everything you've seen AND they've seen everything you haven't. All you've seen is what they've done on Sundays. They've seen what they've done on Monday-Saturday. They have more info than you do, because you're just a fan.

So if a team thinks Josh Rosen isn't good enough, they can label him a bust, because they're qualified to do so. You are not. I am not.

That's the difference.

The last part is far too broad. There's no absolute expectations for all draft picks based on the round they're drafted in. Teams will view two players taken in the first round to be dramatically different and have different expectations for them. Nothing is done in a vacuum. Fans want it to be in a vacuum, but they're wrong about that frequently.

 

[SaltyDog]

Here's the thing. If Oweh is such an athletic freak like everyone said,how come he is not getting sacks?

Good question. I know he had a “eye opening” combine. I think he even set a record for the 40 YD. He moved up on many draft boards after that. speed and athleticism doesn’t always equal success though. Technique can be just as important, and sometimes young players take a while to get it. IDK, we’ll see what happens this year, but he needs to get to that next level or the “B” word will be used relentlessly.

 

[rmcjacket23]

Official...

 

[SepticeyePoe]

Return to Monke(n)

 

[Thezone27]

The reason I questioned it was that Fox called the game.

To the point of your post they may be similar in tendencies but definitely not in experience.

oh no, in an article

 

[Nurps]

ALL ABOARD THE MONKEN TRAIN!!!!

WHOOOOOOTTTTT!!!! WHOOOOOOOOTTTT!!!

 

[Davesta]

Official...

Let’s gooo (hopefully)

 

[Bama Ravens]

Not sure how I feel. He did some great things with Stetson Bennett. His offense isn’t overly exciting and Georgia has been criticized of being an old school offense at times, but that offense also won two straight national titles, though. I think he’ll be fine, though.