The 2023 Offseason Thread

[QtR Nevermore]

Just from a practical standpoint... can you really ever be over-drafted in the third round? Especially at a position like that...

The third round isn't a throwaway round in the draft. It's still a fairly premium pick and the NFL as a whole has a decently high hit rate in the 3rd - though the Ravens have struggled in that range recently.

For me, it was a little early to take a flyer on Stephens when there are always prospects with more production or athleticism that seem like better bets at that range. (Maybe picks like that are why it hasn't been great for the Ravens)

 

[QtR Nevermore]

Yeah but there's not much you can do once a 2nd or 3rd starter from the same position goes down.

True, but it happens so regularly at DB that you've got to plan for it at this point with more DBs on the roster, instead of having to find street FAs every year.

 

[Simba]

The third round isn't a throwaway round in the draft. It's still a fairly premium pick and the NFL as a whole has a decently high hit rate in the 3rd - though the Ravens have struggled in that range recently.

For me, it was a little early to take a flyer on Stephens when there are always prospects with more production or athleticism that seem like better bets at that range. (Maybe picks like that are why it hasn't been great for the Ravens)

Look at that 2021 draft again though. You could argue Stephens has been one of the more effective players out of everyone who was drafted in that class after him, sans Amon-Ra St. Brown and year 2 Talanoa Hufanga. The rest is basically a bunch of shit. That was the Covid year class and it shows.

 

[rmcjacket23]

The third round isn't a throwaway round in the draft. It's still a fairly premium pick and the NFL as a whole has a decently high hit rate in the 3rd - though the Ravens have struggled in that range recently.

For me, it was a little early to take a flyer on Stephens when there are always prospects with more production or athleticism that seem like better bets at that range. (Maybe picks like that are why it hasn't been great for the Ravens)

True, but its also not a round you would expect to get a high quality Corner or even Safety out of either. Especially true at Corner. You want premium Corners, most of the time, you need premium draft picks. If the objective is to get like a quality interior Olineman or a quality Right Tackle or inside linebacker, I'd agree with you, we should be aiming higher in round 3 than a Stephens-type.

FWIW, I don't really see quality Corners/Safeties we could have gotten in same round or later that are impact players from that draft class. In fact from rounds 4-7, you really don't see much in the way of impact players from that draft class in general. Could have gotten a RB like Stevenson or a WR like Amon-Ra St. Brown, but that would have required us to double dip at WR in that class early, or take a RB a year after taking Dobbins.

Stephens would check the box of a ceiling of an average NFL Safety or like a solid CB3. It's just at the moment he's our CB2, which probably isn't ideal.

 

[JoeyFlex5]

On the Ravens defense? I think you're the first and only person who has ever tried to argue that.

I don't hate Stephens but I don't think he's ever looked good enough to see the field on defense in the NFL, not yet anyway. If he is hated, it might be because he was vastly over-drafted. However, his versatility was touted as a reason they picked him so (relatively) high, so I'm not sure it can also be an excuse.

I think he's looked a little better at CB than S, so the switch helped him, if anything.

He’s had some very good games, he’s been pretty good overall, and has not ever looked as bad as you’re saying. “Never looked good enough to see the field on defense” is not even close to an accurate description of Stephens in his 2 seasons.

 

[rmcjacket23]

True, but it happens so regularly at DB that you've got to plan for it at this point with more DBs on the roster, instead of having to find street FAs every year.

OK, but we've check that box too.
We've drafted 6 DBs in the last three years. Do you think that's not enough?
With the exception of 2020, which was a year where we were completely loaded with veteran DB talent, we've taken a DB before the end of round 4 for like a decade straight. Some years we took two in that timeframe.

Its not a volume failure. Its the reality that DBs later on day 2 and into day 3 pretty universally struggle in this league. A lot of them never amount to even average players until like years 3-4. That's why they keep getting rotated out of the league so quickly.

 

[QtR Nevermore]

Look at that 2021 draft again though. You could argue Stephens has been one of the more effective players out of everyone who was drafted in that class after him, sans Amon-Ra St. Brown and year 2 Talanoa Hufanga. The rest is basically a bunch of shit. That was the Covid year class and it shows.

It wasn't a great draft, but there were several DBs selected after Stephens who have been OK.

I'm not a criticizing the pick, the draft is always a gamble and every team misses, but it is a criticism of the process. If a player you like is expected to go in the 7th/UDFA (He was #292 on the consensus) it's still better to take a shot on a more highly regarded player early and pick them up later, that's still true even if the earlier player busts, because evaluations are never perfect.

 

[rmcjacket23]

It wasn't a great draft, but there were several DBs selected after Stephens who have been OK.

I'm not a criticizing the pick, the draft is always a gamble and every team misses, but it is a criticism of the process. If a player you like is expected to go in the 7th/UDFA (He was #292 on the consensus) it's still better to take a shot on a more highly regarded player early and pick them up later, that's still true even if the earlier player busts, because evaluations are never perfect.

Right but the fallacy is the "consensus" rankings suck a lot, so if that's the baseline for your evaluation, you've not done a quality evaluation. Different teams value different measurements, stats, etc. differently, especially in the context of the systems they run. Routinely see players who have 2-3 round differences in evaluations among two different teams.

I think the deeper you get into the draft, the wider the differential in evaluations of players. 3rd or 4th rounders who are off other teams boards entirely. Hell half the time its for off-field or medical concerns. There's no even consensus on the health of certain players, let alone the on-field output.

The historical track record of mock analysts or people that study this far more religiously ain't very good. And so I don't think its wise for teams to put much stock in those evaluations. They're seeing the same things everybody else is seeing. They're just projecting it forward differently.

 

[Sandtown]

One position we haven't talked about is FB. I like Ricard and what he's done for the Ravens but I'm not sure if he plays as much as he did in Roman's scheme.

It's possible he may be playing more at the tight end position this year given that The Ravens loss Josh Oliver whom was their best blocking tight end and if anyone watched Monken offense before he definitely like to ask his tight ends to block,

 

[RavensMania]

It's possible he may be playing more at the tight end position this year given that The Ravens loss Josh Oliver whom was their best blocking tight end and if anyone watched Monken offense before he definitely like to ask his tight ends to block,

it will be interesting to see how Ricard is used, considering Monken doesn't use a FB.

 

[RaineV1]

It wasn't a great draft, but there were several DBs selected after Stephens who have been OK.

I'm not a criticizing the pick, the draft is always a gamble and every team misses, but it is a criticism of the process. If a player you like is expected to go in the 7th/UDFA (He was #292 on the consensus) it's still better to take a shot on a more highly regarded player early and pick them up later, that's still true even if the earlier player busts, because evaluations are never perfect.

Teams should always trust their scouts over the media consensus.

 

[allblackraven]

When can we expect to see the structure of Lamar's contract?

 

[RaineV1]

Honestly, if a team would be willing to give us a second or two third round picks for Queen I'd take it. We have a log jam at LB, and at this point he's a one year rental. It could be a good idea to move on from Queen early and let Simpson get some experience before the big, late season games.

 

[BoredMarine13]

So with Roman gone, Lamar signed, and a seemingly successful draft, what are we supposed to fight about? So boring when things fall into place.

 

[rmcjacket23]

When can we expect to see the structure of Lamar's contract?

"Traditional" was what was reported, without having seen it. Means it won't be structured like Watson's.

Really just need to see what his cap hits this year and next are. They can go super low this year if they want, but I wouldn't.

Next years hit I'll find interesting. My guess is it'll be in the $30-35M range, but haven't seen any details yet.

 

[QtR Nevermore]

True, but its also not a round you would expect to get a high quality Corner or even Safety out of either. Especially true at Corner. You want premium Corners, most of the time, you need premium draft picks. If the objective is to get like a quality interior Olineman or a quality Right Tackle or inside linebacker, I'd agree with you, we should be aiming higher in round 3 than a Stephens-type.

FWIW, I don't really see quality Corners/Safeties we could have gotten in same round or later that are impact players from that draft class. In fact from rounds 4-7, you really don't see much in the way of impact players from that draft class in general. Could have gotten a RB like Stevenson or a WR like Amon-Ra St. Brown, but that would have required us to double dip at WR in that class early, or take a RB a year after taking Dobbins.

Stephens would check the box of a ceiling of an average NFL Safety or like a solid CB3. It's just at the moment he's our CB2, which probably isn't ideal.

The stars go early but Corner/Safety aren't position where starters are only found early in the draft.

KC won the SB with a 7th round secondary. A 6th rounder almost won DROY last year. Late round DBs are starting around the league.

There aren't too many stars from R4-7 of that draft, but there are plenty of starters, which is what teams should be looking for at that stage.

 

[QtR Nevermore]

Teams should always trust their scouts over the media consensus.

Of course, but the consensus does have a wisdom of crowds quality to it and is at least partly based on what scouts etc are saying, so it does give teams a rough benchmark of where players will go. EDC recently said they did pay attention to these things.

 

[rmcjacket23]

The stars go early but Corner/Safety aren't position where starters are only found early in the draft.

KC won the SB with a 7th round secondary. A 6th rounder almost won DROY last year. Late round DBs are starting around the league.

There aren't too many stars from R4-7 of that draft, but there are plenty of starters, which is what teams should be looking for at that stage.

Right, and most of them are starting and producing at the same level as Stephens. You're literally describing the same people.

 

[QtR Nevermore]

Right, and most of them are starting and producing at the same level as Stephens. You're literally describing the same people.

Apparently so. It seems like I'm much lower on Stephens than everyone else. I must be missing something if everyone thinks he has performed like an NFL starter apart from me.

I thought he looked like a practice squad player who was only on the roster because he was a draft pick.

 

[UPennChem]

Apparently so. It seems like I'm much lower on Stephens than everyone else. I must be missing something if everyone thinks he has performed like an NFL starter apart from me.

I thought he looked like a practice squad player who was only on the roster because he was a draft pick.

Stephens played games last year where there were flashes of actual top tier play. Then there were games where he got picked on a lot.

Stephens has the body and athleticism you want, he just hasn't been consistent. Which isn't crazy considering he was a RB 4 years ago and a Safety 2 years ago.