We're in agreement across the board here.
I didn't see the lack of running to be an issue. As you said, the Ravens didn't have many possessions in the first half to run more because of back to back turnovers. And in the second half, the Ravens were scoring, anyway. There wasn't a point where running was the better option. Perhaps the 2PT plays? But even those were open, but not executed.
And yes, both fumbles were back breakers.
The first gave the Bills the TD (the DPI really hurt, but that's a different discussion) and ensured the Ravens didn't get one final drive to end the half.
The second fumble meant the Ravens potential go ahead drive was halted and the Bills scored a field goal, making the final drive a must have 8 point drive.
Either of those fumbles don't happen and the Ravens have a very good shot at winning.