The Running Game, the Turnovers, and the Same Ol’ Ravens

[rmcjacket23]

Semantics dude, the extension carries the dual purpose of restructuring. The real word we want is flexible, he needs to be more team friendly going forward if he wants to "run it back" throughout his prime.

So no, they're not semantics. Restructures just shift $ around on existing contracts. Extensions add years to the deal. Restructures become less favorable to the team the later in the contract they do it, because there's less years to prorate (unless you keep adding void years).

For example, a "restructure" for Andrews largely achieves nothing, because there's no additional years to prorate the bonus conversion over. In order to reduce his cap hit, you'd need to either cut him, extend him or ask him for a paycut (unlikely).

 

[Deebo813]

And if he gets paid as a front line starter somewhere else, I think he'll struggle to live up to his contract. Which ironically, matches Goedert. Goedert is #4 in AAV among TEs, and he's not been a top 5 TE in this league the last five years.

If you know goedert has been there before eagles signed brown and smith than that should let you know the drop off on his production. Its not a lack of skill issue for him because when you watch the games, he still gets open and is a threat! No tight end in eagles current system would put up amazing stats.

 

[Deebo813]

And if he gets paid as a front line starter somewhere else, I think he'll struggle to live up to his contract. Which ironically, matches Goedert. Goedert is #4 in AAV among TEs, and he's not been a top 5 TE in this league the last five years.

Unless you can see the future.. nothing has shown that likely would struggle elsewhere.. yea depending where he goes, if its not a tightend friendly team he may not produce as well but based off what he has shown here, along with his talent…. Nothing has shown that he would struggle.

 

[rmcjacket23]

Unless you can see the future.. nothing has shown that likely would struggle elsewhere.. yea depending where he goes, if its not a tightend friendly team he may not produce as well but based off what he has shown here, along with his talent…. Nothing has shown that he would struggle.

So both of these statements are true:
1. Nothing has shown that he would struggle.
2. Nothing has shown that he would thrive.

The only film you have on him is a guy who operates as a #2 TE in a run-heavy offense, who plays pretty well when he gets targets and volume. That's it. That's the maximum info you or I have. I think if he operated as a #1 TE in a pass-friendlier offense, where he may be asked to play 70-80% of snaps, like Mark did when he was peaking, he may not look quite as good.

The fallacy that exists here, in my opinion, is that there are several offenses in this league that don't utilize the TE in a productive-enough role where that player is going to produce the kinds of stats you'd expect from a guy who, allegedly, could get $12-14M/year on the open market (not my comp, of course).

 

[rmcjacket23]

If you know goedert has been there before eagles signed brown and smith than that should let you know the drop off on his production. Its not a lack of skill issue for him because when you watch the games, he still gets open and is a threat! No tight end in eagles current system would put up amazing stats.

Which is consistent with a) the injuries that occur to TEs, which are common league-wide, and b) that not all teams in the league use TEs heavily in their offense. So it probably doesn't make sense for a lot of teams to pay $14M for a TE who isn't going to be utilized heavily in the offense.

There's also plenty of versions of this team where the Ravens themselves put less emphasis on the TE position as a high-passing contributor. Historically we have, but we've also rarely had receivers this good and a RB this good.

 

[Deebo813]

So both of these statements are true:
1. Nothing has shown that he would struggle.
2. Nothing has shown that he would thrive.

The only film you have on him is a guy who operates as a #2 TE in a run-heavy offense, who plays pretty well when he gets targets and volume. That's it. That's the maximum info you or I have. I think if he operated as a #1 TE in a pass-friendlier offense, where he may be asked to play 70-80% of snaps, like Mark did when he was peaking, he may not look quite as good.

The fallacy that exists here, in my opinion, is that there are several offenses in this league that don't utilize the TE in a productive-enough role where that player is going to produce the kinds of stats you'd expect from a guy who, allegedly, could get $12-14M/year on the open market (not my comp, of course).

When mark went out last season, i believe he played pretty well. Even changed up the offense a little for him by throwing tight end screens or what not. Im not sure if he was being doubled like peak mark though so like you can say he could very well struggle

 

[Deebo813]

Us not being in the SB is like heat losing mavs in the finals or lakers losing to pistons! i feel like we shouldve been in back to back superbowls easily. 2 healthy seasons in a row and we couldnt pull it off. Next year, its only gonna get harder.

 

[rmcjacket23]

When mark went out last season, i believe he played pretty well. Even changed up the offense a little for him by throwing tight end screens or what not. Im not sure if he was being doubled like peak mark though so like you can say he could very well struggle

He generally did fine. In the 8 games Mark missed, he was a 4-5 target/week guy, and he would average 3/46 per week.
If you extrapolated that over a whole season, he'd go for 53/790, which is pretty good. Those numbers would put him just ahead of what Andrews did this year, in what was considered a "down year" for him.

And again, I think that production comes in an offense like the 2023 Ravens, which gives 25% of its targets to TEs. I'm not sure there's a ton of NFL offenses that operate that way. Some may be higher, but I would imagine most are significantly lower.

And again, I don't personally think 53/790 is something I would pay 5 years and $70M for.

 

[gtalk12]

Us not being in the SB is like heat losing mavs in the finals or lakers losing to pistons! i feel like we shouldve been in back to back superbowls easily. 2 healthy seasons in a row and we couldnt pull it off. Next year, its only gonna get harder.

We don't consistently execute the easy shit like the Chiefs do.

Until we sort that out, we won't be able to overcome ourselves let alone that team.

 

[Baltimorican]

If you extrapolated that over a whole season, he'd go for 53/790, which is pretty good. Those numbers would put him just ahead of what Andrews did this year, in what was considered a "down year" for him.

And again, I think that production comes in an offense like the 2023 Ravens, which gives 25% of its targets to TEs. I'm not sure there's a ton of NFL offenses that operate that way. Some may be higher, but I would imagine most are significantly lower.

And again, I don't personally think 53/790 is something I would pay 5 years and $70M for.

800 yds/yr is better than any of the TE's currently making 12-13m/yr like Kmet/Freirmuth/NJoku. It's more than Evan Engram bangs out in his fully healthy years and he makes north of 14m. All of those guys I just mentioned are more comparable to Likely in a full time role than Hunter Henry.

 

[purplepittabread88]

Franchise tag is a an extremely viable option for a player in likely. And when kelce, kittle, and Andrew's contracts are all up / retired, the top 5 will probably average 12-14 mil tbh. That way we could see him play without mark for a year and decide his true value after

Additionally, no way we would do it, but tagging Richard would be an effective and cheap way to retain him...

 

[rmcjacket23]

800 yds/yr is better than any of the TE's currently making 12-13m/yr like Kmet/Freirmuth/NJoku. It's more than Evan Engram bangs out in his fully healthy years and he makes north of 14m. All of those guys I just mentioned are more comparable to Likely in a full time role than Hunter Henry.

Right but 800 yards is on the high end IF he's the #1 TE in an offense that utilizes TEs a lot. And he stays healthy for a full season, which is a lot harder to do when you're playing 70-80% of snaps than it is playing 40-50%.

Also no idea where you got your numbers from. Njoku had an 880 yard season just last year, where he was close to the #1 target in that offense and led the team in receptions and TDs. And his per game stats are monstrously better. Like many TEs, he misses a bunch of time. Part of the reason why TE contracts haven't exploded like other positions.
And Engram had a 960 yard season just last year, where again, he was among the team leaders in targets and receptions. And shockingly, like many TEs, he struggles with injury concerns.

I think most NFL teams will struggle to visualize Likely's "ceiling" at being on the level of Njoku or Engram, and I don't think there's many teams out there willing to make Likely a top target sharer in their offense where he would get the volume to put up those numbers. I think that's true in Baltimore also.

 

[rmcjacket23]

Franchise tag is a an extremely viable option for a player in likely. And when kelce, kittle, and Andrew's contracts are all up / retired, the top 5 will probably average 12-14 mil tbh. That way we could see him play without mark for a year and decide his true value after

Additionally, no way we would do it, but tagging Richard would be an effective and cheap way to retain him...

No way.
For starters, next years franchise tag for TEs is north of $14M, and it'll likely be higher in 2026. Ignoring the fact that I think that's above market value in terms of AAV, the Ravens won't (and I don't think will be able to afford to) actually carry his cap hit at that price point in 2026.

And while I don't know for sure if there's an actual FT value for FBs, I imagine it falls under the RB value, which would put Ricard at $13.6M for 2025. That's an obvious "o hell no".

 

[Baltimorican]

Right but 800 yards is on the high end IF he's the #1 TE in an offense that utilizes TEs a lot. And he stays healthy for a full season, which is a lot harder to do when you're playing 70-80% of snaps than it is playing 40-50%.

Also no idea where you got your numbers from. Njoku had an 880 yard season just last year, where he was close to the #1 target in that offense and led the team in receptions and TDs. And his per game stats are monstrously better. Like many TEs, he misses a bunch of time. Part of the reason why TE contracts haven't exploded like other positions.
And Engram had a 960 yard season just last year, where again, he was among the team leaders in targets and receptions. And shockingly, like many TEs, he struggles with injury concerns.

I think most NFL teams will struggle to visualize Likely's "ceiling" at being on the level of Njoku or Engram, and I don't think there's many teams out there willing to make Likely a top target sharer in their offense where he would get the volume to put up those numbers. I think that's true in Baltimore also.

Engram & Njoku have highs over 800, they don't average it even in their healthy years. I believe Likely as a TE1 projects to pretty much exactly what YOU projected him to, about 60-70 rec, 700-900 yds. It won't be difficult at all to visualize it when he already did it for half a season and has performed that way even as a TE2 when given the targets. He's got rare RAC ability for a TE, WR athleticism and a knack in the red zone. All of that is on tape, much more tape than Goedert had. His floor is a top 10 receiving TE, his ceiling is pro bowler and he's under 26.

So I keep going back to Goedert because that's exactly where he fits in. If the dummy year I added to the contract is burning your eyes then ignore it. Goedert got 4/48 and adjusted for sal cap inflation that would put Likely at about 4/50-55. Any top franchise would give him that in a heartbeat if they had the need at TE.

 

[rmcjacket23]

Engram & Njoku have highs over 800, they don't average it even in their healthy years. I believe Likely as a TE1 projects to pretty much exactly what YOU projected him to, about 60-70 rec, 700-900 yds. It won't be difficult at all to visualize it when he already did it for half a season and has performed that way even as a TE2 when given the targets. He's got rare RAC ability for a TE, WR athleticism and a knack in the red zone. All of that is on tape, much more tape than Goedert had. His floor is a top 10 receiving TE, his ceiling is pro bowler and he's under 26.

So I keep going back to Goedert because that's exactly where he fits in. If the dummy year I added to the contract is burning your eyes then ignore it. Goedert got 4/48 and adjusted for sal cap inflation that would put Likely at about 4/50-55. Any top franchise would give him that in a heartbeat if they had the need at TE.

My projection was his ceiling based on what he did as a TE1 in this offense without Andrews. If your projection is higher, that's not based on film or what he's actually done. His averages would of course be lower, especially if he had the same injury projections as other high-end TEs have.

Cap inflation doesn't occur in a vacuum, i.e. if the cap rises 10% it doesn't mean all contracts do. TE and RB positional values haven't come close to keeping up with cap inflation.
I don't think a "top franchise" is going to pay that to a TE anyway, because I think a lot of them will allocate cap resources to different positional groups AND would just target somebody similar in the draft. There's been several very strong, draft-able pass catching TEs coming out of the draft the last few years. And they're making impacts earlier than they ever have.

 

[Baltimorican]

I don't think a "top franchise" is going to pay that to a TE anyway, because I think a lot of them will allocate cap resources to different positional groups AND would just target somebody similar in the draft.

Dalton Kincaid. You don't think that's exactly the type of contract he gets when it's time to up him? I've been talking about Goedert for pages now, you don't think the Eagles are a top franchise? The Bills signed Dawson friggin Knox to the exact 4/53 contract I'm suggesting for Likely, that dude is practically a blocking TE. Vikings, another very well constructed roster, pay Hockinson 14m+. He's good but he's a hair short of elite. I'm not even talking about what the elite TE's on the great rosters make or will make (Kelce/laporta).

Hells, we could say you have it completely BACKWARDS. Specifically because the WR market has exploded and the TE market hasn't, the top franchises see a ton of value in a 12-14m top end pass catching TE.

 

[rmcjacket23]

Dalton Kincaid. You don't think that's exactly the type of contract he gets when it's time to up him? I've been talking about Goedert for pages now, you don't think the Eagles are a top franchise? The Bills signed Dawson friggin Knox to the exact 4/53 contract I'm suggesting for Likely, that dude is practically a blocking TE. Vikings, another very well constructed roster, pay Hockinson 14m+. He's good but he's a hair short of elite. I'm not even talking about what the elite TE's on the great rosters make or will make (Kelce/laporta).

Hells, we could say you have it completely BACKWARDS. Specifically because the WR market has exploded and the TE market hasn't, the top franchises see a ton of value in a 12-14m top end pass catching TE.

I think the more contracts you list of contracts where players got high contracts and haven't lived up to those contracts, which there are several among TEs at this point, the more data points GMs have to not overspend at that position. at the end of the day, a lot of these guys have actual production to show for it, whereas with Likely whatever compensation he gets will likely be tied to future forecasting. Which is a great bargaining position for GMs.

 

[Baltimorican]

I think the more contracts you list of contracts where players got high contracts and haven't lived up to those contracts, which there are several among TEs at this point, the more data points GMs have to not overspend at that position. at the end of the day, a lot of these guys have actual production to show for it, whereas with Likely whatever compensation he gets will likely be tied to future forecasting. Which is a great bargaining position for GMs.

The Eagles don't regret paying Goedert. Sure they would have loved for him to overperform the contract instead of very slightly underperform it but they don't regret it at all. Pretty much all of the contracts I've mentioned have been warranted except Knox who was immediately rolled back to about 3/30.

 

[purplepittabread88]

Dalton Kincaid. You don't think that's exactly the type of contract he gets when it's time to up him? I've been talking about Goedert for pages now, you don't think the Eagles are a top franchise? The Bills signed Dawson friggin Knox to the exact 4/53 contract I'm suggesting for Likely, that dude is practically a blocking TE. Vikings, another very well constructed roster, pay Hockinson 14m+. He's good but he's a hair short of elite. I'm not even talking about what the elite TE's on the great rosters make or will make (Kelce/laporta).

Hells, we could say you have it completely BACKWARDS. Specifically because the WR market has exploded and the TE market hasn't, the top franchises see a ton of value in a 12-14m top end pass catching TE.

Agreeded 14 sounds way more than it actually is. A wr who is as effective as likely costs 24(?) mil minimum