52520Andrew
Pro Bowler
Dow has been quite the roller coaster this week with all the China stuff, big rally today
Okay this is good
Yeah, there's something pretty rich about someone telling a former Murdoch journalist that "the media" is a homogenous leftist entity. I guess his feelings are more important than facts.What’s bizarre is Shapiro trying to get neill to admit he’s a leftist - he’s a strong conservative in the uk - tells you how far right conservatives in the us are
A lot of the tax cuts last year were temporary so many of those effects will have worn off (there's a reason analysts called it a "sugar hit") and they won't enjoy that windfall this fiscal year. It's crazy how much a couple of Tweets can affect the entire market though.Dow has been quite the roller coaster this week with all the China stuff, big rally today
A lot of the tax cuts last year were temporary so many of those effects will have worn off (there's a reason analysts called it a "sugar hit") and they won't enjoy that windfall this fiscal year. It's crazy how much a couple of Tweets can affect the entire market though.
But I'm sticking with my prediction that they'll strike a deal this year (maybe next year at a push if Trump wants to time it to the election cycle) that may look nice but it won't cover any of the substantial issues that have been complained about over the past several years. China will agree to buy a bunch of things or give token market access to a sector that's already established or something like that. Happy enough to be wrong, but I don't see any eventual payoff being worth the cost of the trade war to date (again as I've been saying for some time about trade wars). Not unlike NAFTA or the North Korea deals.
A lot of the tax cuts last year were temporary so many of those effects will have worn off (there's a reason analysts called it a "sugar hit") and they won't enjoy that windfall this fiscal year. It's crazy how much a couple of Tweets can affect the entire market though.
But I'm sticking with my prediction that they'll strike a deal this year (maybe next year at a push if Trump wants to time it to the election cycle) that may look nice but it won't cover any of the substantial issues that have been complained about over the past several years. China will agree to buy a bunch of things or give token market access to a sector that's already established or something like that. Happy enough to be wrong, but I don't see any eventual payoff being worth the cost of the trade war to date (again as I've been saying for some time about trade wars). Not unlike NAFTA or the North Korea deals.
I think the biggest thing at least this week is trade though, at least in the U.S. markets. Big reason for the rally yesterday was because Mnunchin said the talks with China have been constructive.
Yeah I think this trade war will just hurt all involved. I think the U.S. can manage better than China in this but there will be price increases from these tariffs that will affect consumers. Not to mention the farms needing a bailout.
I think for the most part though this bull market is on borrowed time and the bear isn't far off.
If memory serves, the repatriation rates (which were no small part in propping up the balance of trade ahead of the trade war) were a one-time thing. Could be wrong on that though. What I should have said is that the markets have already priced the tax cuts in so there won't be any more share price movements because of that.What tax cuts were temporary?? Trump is not going to take a deal just to make a deal. According to Trump the Chinese were trying to back off of earlier agreements they had made and then just figgered we'd give them extensions. Trump said f u. A deadline is a deadline. The market straightened out from the earlier tariffs and will do so again. Get rid of all tariffs. THATS FREE MARKET!!!
I agree that the US will probably come out less worse off than China, though getting shrapnel in the other guy's leg doesn't make shooting yourself in the foot a good idea. As you say the tariffs and bailouts (or subsidies or whatever terminology is used) for the main losers get paid for by the US consumer.I think the biggest thing at least this week is trade though, at least in the U.S. markets. Big reason for the rally yesterday was because Mnunchin said the talks with China have been constructive.
Yeah I think this trade war will just hurt all involved. I think the U.S. can manage better than China in this but there will be price increases from these tariffs that will affect consumers. Not to mention the farms needing a bailout.
I think for the most part though this bull market is on borrowed time and the bear isn't far off.
If memory serves, the repatriation rates (which were no small part in propping up the balance of trade ahead of the trade war) were a one-time thing. Could be wrong on that though. What I should have said is that the markets have already priced the tax cuts in so there won't be any more share price movements because of that.
I don't care about the goings-on in the process (that's he said, she said. The Chinese have their own statement out and that's no less valid than Trump saying something at a rally). I'm saying trade wars are dumb. Because they are. I mentioned three trade wars/skirmishes at various points in this thread that showed the costs weren't worth the benefits (one of which you agreed with because it was an Obama action) - and the best case scenario usually leaves everyone where they started. What might change my mind is if you can show me a trade war in which the benefits significantly outweighed the costs. That's the level of proof I'll take to change my mind, and this trade war's no different.
As it stands this one is estimated to have cost $19.2 billion so far ($6.9 in loss of efficiency and $12.3 in higher prices - bearing in mind that a tariff is ultimately paid by the consumer). At any rate that was six months ago and the costs will have kept rising since then. And as far as I can see, it doesn't include the cost to exporters from retaliatory tariffs. So if a deal is struck tomorrow the benefits will have to outweigh that.
http://www.princeton.edu/~reddings/papers/CEPR-DP13564.pdf
By the market straightening out I'm assuming you mean the stock market rising above what is was when this started? If so, that's the wrong way to look at it. If the stock market rises by 3%, that doesn't mean the market "straightened out" because there's a good chance it would have risen by 5% without the trade war. And that's before I get into issues like questioning the link between the stock market and how well off a country is, and how some parts of an index (which is how people judge a stock market) are more sensitive to trade than others.
The 3% and 5% thing were made up numbers to show how it works. The point is that the market has to get to where it would have been without the trade war. General growth, inflation and a return to easy monetary policy (sigh) all have impacts on the stock market and they would have happened regardless. This is also why I don't tend to post too much - every off-hand comment requires a paragraph's explanation in response.
OK, now you're speaking my language (for the most part). This will be a long post but I'll try to break it up so it's easy to follow. And I hope everyone else finds some interesting stuff out of it too.Yep I 100% agree I hate trade wars but this one is nessassary. Thing is we had been watching our manufacturing jobs go overseas for the cheaper labor which is helped tremendously by our low tariffs we had in place here for their goods and then our corporations were being taxed here at a ridiculous 38.5% rate so you basically couldn't blame them at least businesswise. Trump getting it down to 20% was a great start but still not enough imo. Next why is it ok for everybody to tax the crap out of our shit when we ship it over there where it basically makes it unaffordable except for the well off. I mean how much does a Harley cost overseas and since everything is so damn expensive that even over here American goods are higher priced than imported mainly from China and India for example. Hell even Canada was tariffing our dairy at something like 285%. That's just total BS!!The Chinese are even having our companies give them their intellectual intelligence (hope that's the right phrase) so they learn how to make whatever they're making but I more blame that on corporate greed just cuz they want to enter a market. As for higher prices I really haven't seen much of the price increase tbh. I mean a bad winter could make orange prices go up.
So therefore this is mainly for our manufacturing and agricultural businesses to fairly compete and I'm all for it. In the new USMCA when it freakin becomes official we'll begin exporting soybeans to Mexico instead of them buying them from Argentina and wages in American factories that have went down there will go dramatically up ( there will be a minimum per hour ) which helps the people down there and our tariffs will be cut from our dairy being transported to Canada and lumber will be cheaper to get down here. Remember Obama said manufacturing was dead here and what did Trump have a magic wand lol.
Again lets get rid of tariffs completely. Are other countries scared to compete against us fairly or are we just getting stepped on? It makes no sense to me that we get tariffed so highly. Maybe you can explain since I have no idea.
Glad you liked it. I don't feel like I could ever be accused of being anti-capitalist (whenever I do critique it it's more like Ravens fans talking about things that don't work about the team), and economics, finance and free trade is a big area of interest for me - not that you could tell lol. You don't need to sell me on the gains of free trade, and there's actually quite a bit to like about Trump's aims with China. I just find his approach so mind-blowingly frustrating because it's almost a playbook of what not to do. Fwiw though, this news did drop a day or two ago so maybe someone in the administration is a closet Purple Flock reader:@Inqui I guess when I ask for an explanation I get one lol and man that was a great read. I don't know much about the TPP but if it was anything like NAFTA where we're watching jobs march out of this country then I'm not for it. We have to keep people off the system. The American way is not being dependent on the govt so I cant stress enough the importance of this.
One thing I'll say is that "worth it" is a matter of opinion, so if your approach is to do whatever it takes to bring as many manufacturing jobs back as possible we've probably got different views on where the "worth it" line is. I did see that manufacturing output has grown about 7% over two years compared with the broader economy growing at around 6% to 6.5% in the same time. The economy added about 470,000 manufacturing jobs in Trump's term (https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES3000000001), so not miles off 600,000. Assuming every one of those jobs came because of the trade war (which I can guarantee wasn't the case), they'd have cost the US taxpayer $42,000 each and that's just from the trade war so far. That $20 billion is out of date by at least six months but probably closer to a year. I'd say that's underselling the costs and overselling the gains by quite a bit.One thing you did touch on was that developing countries were allowed to tariff higher and with China specifically we know that's not the case no more so 2,3 and 5 are what needs worked on and that's what I believe is happening. #6 is self explanatory since I explained the Mexico situation and I heard wages were rising in China (thank goodness just for the people) but we also have added 600,000 manufacturing jobs here ( don't completely quote me on that number ) and more hopefully more will be coming in. I sincerely hope you have to come back and say if it was worth it.
They have some really nice public golf courses too.Alabama is one messed up state. There is only two good things about that state.... Their Football Program & Talladega Superspeedway.
I read somewhere that if a woman gets raped and has an abortion she can now get punished more severely than the rapist. That's horrendous.Alabama is one messed up state. There is only two good things about that state.... Their Football Program & Talladega Superspeedway.
I read somewhere that if a woman gets raped and has an abortion she can now get punished more severely than the rapist. That's horrendous.