The 1st half, The Refs and The Collapse

[rossihunter2]

Look at this quote from Von Miller:

Some of the tendencies that we had maybe thought of throughout the week, they were a little bit different, so we kind of understood, just throughout the game, that if they were in certain formations, if they were in certain personnel groups, this is what they were doing. Early on in the game, we were still trying to figure it out, but as we got through the game, and you started to see plays repeat itself, we were able to kind of settle down and see the same plays over and over again, and, like I said, make the plays when we had to.

Seems to me this is the reason we come out guns blazing then stall in the second half. Coming from the horses mouth the same plays are repeated over and over so the opposing team adjusts and stops the offense.

i mean it's not like these plays arent on tape though...
we didnt do anything dramatically different to what we've done in previous weeks

 

[rossihunter2]

 

[Florida Raven Fan]

i mean it's not like these plays arent on tape though...
we didnt do anything dramatically different to what we've done in previous weeks

I mean yeah they watch the tape for these reason duh. But this is more telling on Gro isn't the knock on him that he doesn't adjust. If you keep trying the same plays and they stop you then where's your adjustment?

 

[allblackraven]

oweh's young and athletic and good in both phases - but when we get up above 80-85% the level of difficulty is going to increase massively

bowser was able to do that in some games last year but he's also got a lot of off-ball/coverage responsibilities which are a little different energy-wise to some of the trench-work

it's not going to change for oweh at all until we get houston and bowser back - if we can just get him back down below 80% i think we're gonna be in the sweet spot

Hopefully he stays healthy until they come back.

 

[rossihunter2]

I mean yeah they watch the tape for these reason duh. But this is more telling on Gro isn't the knock on him that he doesn't adjust. If you keep trying the same plays and they stop you then where's your adjustment?

i guess idk that i agree that the bills really stopped us...
i wish we'd run the ball a little in the 2nd half when the conditions got worse - the bills used allen in the running game in key spots and i think the ravens could have done more with lamar

but also we had a poor 2nd half in terms of execution - there were plays there and available that would have been huge daggers to the bills and we just didnt execute - bateman's slant that he dropped and might have housed, hill's big run where his hamstring went was gonna be a huge play, lamar missing duvernay wide open in the endzone on that final play on offence - that's 3 potential massive plays that turn into maybe TDs that became 0 points - idk what adjustment the bills made but those plays still happened

if he's talking about personnel based tells then sure - but they should have been able to work a bunch of that stuff out before the game even started

it's not like other teams don't repeat plays a lot lol

 

[OURavensFan]

Look at this quote from Von Miller:

Some of the tendencies that we had maybe thought of throughout the week, they were a little bit different, so we kind of understood, just throughout the game, that if they were in certain formations, if they were in certain personnel groups, this is what they were doing. Early on in the game, we were still trying to figure it out, but as we got through the game, and you started to see plays repeat itself, we were able to kind of settle down and see the same plays over and over again, and, like I said, make the plays when we had to.

Seems to me this is the reason we come out guns blazing then stall in the second half. Coming from the horses mouth the same plays are repeated over and over so the opposing team adjusts and stops the offense.

Oh god, here comes the fire Roman rally. It also sucks just like last year we’re all debating another heartbreaking 4th down decision. Please just beat the Bengals, we’ll be in good shape if we can do that

 

[rmcjacket23]

Defensive Notes vs Bills Week 4 2022 | FilmstudyBaltimore

www.filmstudybaltimore.com

For those that don't read Ken's column, some interesting notes here.

He brought up one thing I hadn't thought of, which is that the failed conversion on the goal line is amplified and significantly worse by the fact that its an INT. It's basically 18 yards of free field position. The idea of the "worst case scenario", barring a turnover, is that the Bills start on their own 2 yard line, meaning play calling because limited and the Ravens can play call quite a bit differently. Because its an INT, Bills now have a wide open playbook at their disposal.
Do also appreciate the thought process around the TD, i.e. even if the Ravens kick the FG, there's scenarios where they can get the ball back, because teams don't really have the luxury of "timing" up TD scores. If the Bills want to drive down and win the game in regulation, it could potentially happen quick enough that the Ravens get the ball back.

 

[rossihunter2]

Defensive Notes vs Bills Week 4 2022 | FilmstudyBaltimore

www.filmstudybaltimore.com

For those that don't read Ken's column, some interesting notes here.

He brought up one thing I hadn't thought of, which is that the failed conversion on the goal line is amplified and significantly worse by the fact that its an INT. It's basically 18 yards of free field position. The idea of the "worst case scenario", barring a turnover, is that the Bills start on their own 2 yard line, meaning play calling because limited and the Ravens can play call quite a bit differently. Because its an INT, Bills now have a wide open playbook at their disposal.
Do also appreciate the thought process around the TD, i.e. even if the Ravens kick the FG, there's scenarios where they can get the ball back, because teams don't really have the luxury of "timing" up TD scores. If the Bills want to drive down and win the game in regulation, it could potentially happen quick enough that the Ravens get the ball back.

yeah some of us brought that up earlier in the thread i think
but harbs also talked about that in his presser

 

[gtalk12]

I agree. Though, again, lack of options is driving that. No Houston, no Ojabo, no Bowser. You get Houston back you can at least play more of a 3 man rotation, so maybe each is playing 2/3 of snaps instead of like 80-90%.

If healthy, this should dramatically improve over time. But in short term, yes, its an issue.

Agreed. Health is going to change this defense dramatically.

You can't lose 3 guys that play a similar position and think it's going to be sweet. Same goes for our MLB. It can't just be Queen back there. It's too much for him.

 

[redrum52]

Defensive Notes vs Bills Week 4 2022 | FilmstudyBaltimore

www.filmstudybaltimore.com

For those that don't read Ken's column, some interesting notes here.

He brought up one thing I hadn't thought of, which is that the failed conversion on the goal line is amplified and significantly worse by the fact that its an INT. It's basically 18 yards of free field position. The idea of the "worst case scenario", barring a turnover, is that the Bills start on their own 2 yard line, meaning play calling because limited and the Ravens can play call quite a bit differently. Because its an INT, Bills now have a wide open playbook at their disposal.
Do also appreciate the thought process around the TD, i.e. even if the Ravens kick the FG, there's scenarios where they can get the ball back, because teams don't really have the luxury of "timing" up TD scores. If the Bills want to drive down and win the game in regulation, it could potentially happen quick enough that the Ravens get the ball back.

The int killed field position but on 4th down I'm not mad at him trying something in the back of the endzone. The second point about getting the fg and there being plenty of time left was my gripe. We take the 3 they can't just try to time up getting a td. At least in that scenario we most likely have ball last and the more capable unit has control of the outcome.

And you'd think a team that practices against our qbs would be better at contain.

 

[RavensMania]

travis jones snaps i imagine are somewhat situational - bills are not a heavy personnel team nor a run-heavy team - not as much need for a massive nose tackle all game

the JPP and oweh numbers are frightening - the fact that copeland only played 7 snaps is surprising too... i get that he's not a game-changer but surely just to spell oweh or JPP for a few snaps here and there you'd think he'd get more than 7

nick boyle is becoming the most expensive special teamer in the league

Travis Jones had a good game

 

[RavensMania]

Yes but how many hurries? Like 15?

he allowed 3 hurries. lol

 

[Florida Raven Fan]

Oh god, here comes the fire Roman rally. It also sucks just like last year we’re all debating another heartbreaking 4th down decision. Please just beat the Bengals, we’ll be in good shape if we can do that

Lol where did I say fire Roman? I admit the offense has improved a lot since last year. The issue is his lack of ability to adjust is what I was getting at.

 

[RavensMania]

and he's basically doing this with no help on the other side.

 

[drjohnnyfever]

BoredMarine13 said:

I'm curious, under Harbs tenure, how successful we've been converting 4th downs inside the 5-yard line/ 2pt Conversions. I can only remember the Seahawks game from 2019, but I feel like there were a few more successful plays that year. Unfortunately, this year seems genuinely terrible. I don't recall us ever being this bold pre Lamar.

The stat on ESPN this morning was that Lamar is 27/36 in converting 4th and 2 or less. So its basically right at 75%. I think Orlovsky referenced 80%.
That doesn't equate for area on the field, though.

This is still great info and something the fire Harbs crowd needs to consider. Frustrating not to convert, but more often than not its working in our favor.

This needs some more context by season for me. I look for those kinds of stats, but I can never find them. I agree that we have been successful in going for it in the past, but the last couple of years don't pass the eye test for me. Is it possible that we went for it so often in 2019 when we were unstoppable that those numbers are skewed? I just feel like there wouldn't be so many adamant about it if it were something we weren't seeing failing in these similar situations enough to make it noticeable.

 

[drjohnnyfever]

people get mad because they remember the ones we dont convert in high leverage moments and there's a recency bias too with the dolphins troubles at the goal-line

they forget most of the high leverage ones we make - outside of seattle which is only remembered because of the moment with harbs and lamar, and maybe the chiefs one to seal the win last year in week 2

I don't disagree, but that was three years ago, 2019... we made it when we went for it very consistently that year. If we are still playing on analytics from that season, we need to re-calibrate. If someone can find it would be interesting to know the year by year stats.

 

[rmcjacket23]

BoredMarine13 said:

I'm curious, under Harbs tenure, how successful we've been converting 4th downs inside the 5-yard line/ 2pt Conversions. I can only remember the Seahawks game from 2019, but I feel like there were a few more successful plays that year. Unfortunately, this year seems genuinely terrible. I don't recall us ever being this bold pre Lamar.




This needs some more context by season for me. I look for those kinds of stats, but I can never find them. I agree that we have been successful in going for it in the past, but the last couple of years don't pass the eye test for me. Is it possible that we went for it so often in 2019 when we were unstoppable that those numbers are skewed? I just feel like there wouldn't be so many adamant about it if it were something we weren't seeing failing in these similar situations enough to make it noticeable.

So without looking at down and distance...
4th down conversions by year:
2022: 40%
2021: 66.7%
2020: 57.1%
2019: 60.7%

Now that's total 4th down conversions, not based on yardage. But there's really not much deviation in there at a macro level.

 

[RavensMania]

BoredMarine13 said:

I'm curious, under Harbs tenure, how successful we've been converting 4th downs inside the 5-yard line/ 2pt Conversions. I can only remember the Seahawks game from 2019, but I feel like there were a few more successful plays that year. Unfortunately, this year seems genuinely terrible. I don't recall us ever being this bold pre Lamar.




This needs some more context by season for me. I look for those kinds of stats, but I can never find them. I agree that we have been successful in going for it in the past, but the last couple of years don't pass the eye test for me. Is it possible that we went for it so often in 2019 when we were unstoppable that those numbers are skewed? I just feel like there wouldn't be so many adamant about it if it were something we weren't seeing failing in these similar situations enough to make it noticeable.

So without looking at down and distance...
4th down conversions by year:
2022: 40%
2021: 66.7%
2020: 57.1%
2019: 60.7%

Now that's total 4th down conversions, not based on yardage. But there's really not much deviation in there at a macro level.

surprised 2021 was better than 2019. Really surprised actually.

 

[29BmoreBird22]

turnovers are a critical part of this though and it's not like those opportunities to have turnovers disappeared in the 2nd half - ravens just didnt take advantage of them

I would caution that turnovers are volatile and that you can't rely on your opponents to make mistakes as a form of good defense. I'm not sure what the numbers look like year to year, but I'd imagine turnovers jump around.

You're not always going to get a tipped ball interception and it's probably even rarer to get a fumble by a running back, so you've got to be able to stand on your own without turnovers. Turnovers should just be an extra nice bonus.

 

[drjohnnyfever]

So without looking at down and distance...
4th down conversions by year:
2022: 40%
2021: 66.7%
2020: 57.1%
2019: 60.7%

Now that's total 4th down conversions, not based on yardage. But there's really not much deviation in there at a macro level.

Excellent. How do you do that?! But knowing the micro level, the situations where there was failure would shed even more light on it. Seems like it is a true 50-50 nearly.