The 1st half, The Refs and The Collapse

[rmcjacket23]

Defensive Notes vs Bills Week 4 2022 | FilmstudyBaltimore

For those that don't read Ken's column, some interesting notes here.

He brought up one thing I hadn't thought of, which is that the failed conversion on the goal line is amplified and significantly worse by the fact that its an INT. It's basically 18 yards of free field position. The idea of the "worst case scenario", barring a turnover, is that the Bills start on their own 2 yard line, meaning play calling because limited and the Ravens can play call quite a bit differently. Because its an INT, Bills now have a wide open playbook at their disposal.
Do also appreciate the thought process around the TD, i.e. even if the Ravens kick the FG, there's scenarios where they can get the ball back, because teams don't really have the luxury of "timing" up TD scores. If the Bills want to drive down and win the game in regulation, it could potentially happen quick enough that the Ravens get the ball back.

 

[rossihunter2]

Defensive Notes vs Bills Week 4 2022 | FilmstudyBaltimore

For those that don't read Ken's column, some interesting notes here.

He brought up one thing I hadn't thought of, which is that the failed conversion on the goal line is amplified and significantly worse by the fact that its an INT. It's basically 18 yards of free field position. The idea of the "worst case scenario", barring a turnover, is that the Bills start on their own 2 yard line, meaning play calling because limited and the Ravens can play call quite a bit differently. Because its an INT, Bills now have a wide open playbook at their disposal.
Do also appreciate the thought process around the TD, i.e. even if the Ravens kick the FG, there's scenarios where they can get the ball back, because teams don't really have the luxury of "timing" up TD scores. If the Bills want to drive down and win the game in regulation, it could potentially happen quick enough that the Ravens get the ball back.

yeah some of us brought that up earlier in the thread i think
but harbs also talked about that in his presser

 

[gtalk12]

I agree. Though, again, lack of options is driving that. No Houston, no Ojabo, no Bowser. You get Houston back you can at least play more of a 3 man rotation, so maybe each is playing 2/3 of snaps instead of like 80-90%.

If healthy, this should dramatically improve over time. But in short term, yes, its an issue.

Agreed. Health is going to change this defense dramatically.

You can't lose 3 guys that play a similar position and think it's going to be sweet. Same goes for our MLB. It can't just be Queen back there. It's too much for him.

 

[redrum52]

Defensive Notes vs Bills Week 4 2022 | FilmstudyBaltimore

For those that don't read Ken's column, some interesting notes here.

He brought up one thing I hadn't thought of, which is that the failed conversion on the goal line is amplified and significantly worse by the fact that its an INT. It's basically 18 yards of free field position. The idea of the "worst case scenario", barring a turnover, is that the Bills start on their own 2 yard line, meaning play calling because limited and the Ravens can play call quite a bit differently. Because its an INT, Bills now have a wide open playbook at their disposal.
Do also appreciate the thought process around the TD, i.e. even if the Ravens kick the FG, there's scenarios where they can get the ball back, because teams don't really have the luxury of "timing" up TD scores. If the Bills want to drive down and win the game in regulation, it could potentially happen quick enough that the Ravens get the ball back.

The int killed field position but on 4th down I'm not mad at him trying something in the back of the endzone. The second point about getting the fg and there being plenty of time left was my gripe. We take the 3 they can't just try to time up getting a td. At least in that scenario we most likely have ball last and the more capable unit has control of the outcome.

And you'd think a team that practices against our qbs would be better at contain.

 

[RavensMania]

travis jones snaps i imagine are somewhat situational - bills are not a heavy personnel team nor a run-heavy team - not as much need for a massive nose tackle all game

the JPP and oweh numbers are frightening - the fact that copeland only played 7 snaps is surprising too... i get that he's not a game-changer but surely just to spell oweh or JPP for a few snaps here and there you'd think he'd get more than 7

nick boyle is becoming the most expensive special teamer in the league

Travis Jones had a good game

 

[RavensMania]

Yes but how many hurries? Like 15?

he allowed 3 hurries. lol

 

[Florida Raven Fan]

Oh god, here comes the fire Roman rally. It also sucks just like last year we’re all debating another heartbreaking 4th down decision. Please just beat the Bengals, we’ll be in good shape if we can do that

Lol where did I say fire Roman? I admit the offense has improved a lot since last year. The issue is his lack of ability to adjust is what I was getting at.

 

[RavensMania]

and he's basically doing this with no help on the other side.

 

[drjohnnyfever]

BoredMarine13 said:

I'm curious, under Harbs tenure, how successful we've been converting 4th downs inside the 5-yard line/ 2pt Conversions. I can only remember the Seahawks game from 2019, but I feel like there were a few more successful plays that year. Unfortunately, this year seems genuinely terrible. I don't recall us ever being this bold pre Lamar.

The stat on ESPN this morning was that Lamar is 27/36 in converting 4th and 2 or less. So its basically right at 75%. I think Orlovsky referenced 80%.
That doesn't equate for area on the field, though.

This is still great info and something the fire Harbs crowd needs to consider. Frustrating not to convert, but more often than not its working in our favor.

This needs some more context by season for me. I look for those kinds of stats, but I can never find them. I agree that we have been successful in going for it in the past, but the last couple of years don't pass the eye test for me. Is it possible that we went for it so often in 2019 when we were unstoppable that those numbers are skewed? I just feel like there wouldn't be so many adamant about it if it were something we weren't seeing failing in these similar situations enough to make it noticeable.

 

[drjohnnyfever]

people get mad because they remember the ones we dont convert in high leverage moments and there's a recency bias too with the dolphins troubles at the goal-line

they forget most of the high leverage ones we make - outside of seattle which is only remembered because of the moment with harbs and lamar, and maybe the chiefs one to seal the win last year in week 2

I don't disagree, but that was three years ago, 2019... we made it when we went for it very consistently that year. If we are still playing on analytics from that season, we need to re-calibrate. If someone can find it would be interesting to know the year by year stats.

 

[rmcjacket23]

BoredMarine13 said:

I'm curious, under Harbs tenure, how successful we've been converting 4th downs inside the 5-yard line/ 2pt Conversions. I can only remember the Seahawks game from 2019, but I feel like there were a few more successful plays that year. Unfortunately, this year seems genuinely terrible. I don't recall us ever being this bold pre Lamar.




This needs some more context by season for me. I look for those kinds of stats, but I can never find them. I agree that we have been successful in going for it in the past, but the last couple of years don't pass the eye test for me. Is it possible that we went for it so often in 2019 when we were unstoppable that those numbers are skewed? I just feel like there wouldn't be so many adamant about it if it were something we weren't seeing failing in these similar situations enough to make it noticeable.

So without looking at down and distance...
4th down conversions by year:
2022: 40%
2021: 66.7%
2020: 57.1%
2019: 60.7%

Now that's total 4th down conversions, not based on yardage. But there's really not much deviation in there at a macro level.

 

[RavensMania]

BoredMarine13 said:

I'm curious, under Harbs tenure, how successful we've been converting 4th downs inside the 5-yard line/ 2pt Conversions. I can only remember the Seahawks game from 2019, but I feel like there were a few more successful plays that year. Unfortunately, this year seems genuinely terrible. I don't recall us ever being this bold pre Lamar.




This needs some more context by season for me. I look for those kinds of stats, but I can never find them. I agree that we have been successful in going for it in the past, but the last couple of years don't pass the eye test for me. Is it possible that we went for it so often in 2019 when we were unstoppable that those numbers are skewed? I just feel like there wouldn't be so many adamant about it if it were something we weren't seeing failing in these similar situations enough to make it noticeable.

So without looking at down and distance...
4th down conversions by year:
2022: 40%
2021: 66.7%
2020: 57.1%
2019: 60.7%

Now that's total 4th down conversions, not based on yardage. But there's really not much deviation in there at a macro level.

surprised 2021 was better than 2019. Really surprised actually.

 

[29BmoreBird22]

turnovers are a critical part of this though and it's not like those opportunities to have turnovers disappeared in the 2nd half - ravens just didnt take advantage of them

I would caution that turnovers are volatile and that you can't rely on your opponents to make mistakes as a form of good defense. I'm not sure what the numbers look like year to year, but I'd imagine turnovers jump around.

You're not always going to get a tipped ball interception and it's probably even rarer to get a fumble by a running back, so you've got to be able to stand on your own without turnovers. Turnovers should just be an extra nice bonus.

 

[drjohnnyfever]

So without looking at down and distance...
4th down conversions by year:
2022: 40%
2021: 66.7%
2020: 57.1%
2019: 60.7%

Now that's total 4th down conversions, not based on yardage. But there's really not much deviation in there at a macro level.

Excellent. How do you do that?! But knowing the micro level, the situations where there was failure would shed even more light on it. Seems like it is a true 50-50 nearly.

 

[rossihunter2]

surprised 2021 was better than 2019. Really surprised actually.

my guess is that 2021 number is going to be helped significantly by some of the comebacks - i imagine some of those will have been well outside of 4th and 2
we also ran a bunch of option with legit QB pulls with Huntley in the backfield and got great results with that later in the year

 

[rossihunter2]

I don't disagree, but that was three years ago, 2019... we made it when we went for it very consistently that year. If we are still playing on analytics from that season, we need to re-calibrate. If someone can find it would be interesting to know the year by year stats.

we're not though
1 of the examples of memorable plays i mentioned was from last year

it sucks that we're at 40% 4th down conversion this year but it's a 4 week sample size and is situational as crazy

 

[rossihunter2]

I would caution that turnovers are volatile and that you can't rely on your opponents to make mistakes as a form of good defense. I'm not sure what the numbers look like year to year, but I'd imagine turnovers jump around.

You're not always going to get a tipped ball interception and it's probably even rarer to get a fumble by a running back, so you've got to be able to stand on your own without turnovers. Turnovers should just be an extra nice bonus.

i agree on a season by season basis turnovers do normally regress back to the mean generally
but it's not necessarily that you cant play for turnovers - or interceptions at least... tipped passes are of course a big variable and RB fumbles for sure - but having a great post safety breaking on the ball is huge, having guys who are actual playmakers on the ball all over the backend is huge too

marcus williams should have 5 picks - he has 3

im not saying this is going to hold necessarily, but that it's definitely not impossible to structure your defence around finding turnovers - we've got a lot more eyes in the secondary on the QB this year

 

[BoredMarine13]

Look at this quote from Von Miller:

Some of the tendencies that we had maybe thought of throughout the week, they were a little bit different, so we kind of understood, just throughout the game, that if they were in certain formations, if they were in certain personnel groups, this is what they were doing. Early on in the game, we were still trying to figure it out, but as we got through the game, and you started to see plays repeat itself, we were able to kind of settle down and see the same plays over and over again, and, like I said, make the plays when we had to.

Seems to me this is the reason we come out guns blazing then stall in the second half. Coming from the horses mouth the same plays are repeated over and over so the opposing team adjusts and stops the offense.

O yea here we go, @Davesta get the torches. It’s fire Roman time!

 

[RavensMania]

O yea here we go, @Davesta get the torches. It’s fire Roman time!

and when Likely is on the field it is Likely a pass....over 80% of the time. This week was 91%

 

[Davesta]

O yea here we go, @Davesta get the torches. It’s fire Roman time!

Bro… it’s the same story. Greg Roman recycles the same plays 1st half to 2nd half. ESPN made fun of his ass for doing this



I’m sick of Greg Roman. Harbs can kick rocks too. The master of Rah-Rah and special teams. Can only do so much in-game adjustments for special teams mofo.

*end rant*