Here are a couple of excerpts in case you don't have time...Caveat it's from 2011, so there might have been some changes.
...
we find that their [GMs, Scouting] ability to predict performance is quite low [as found in similar studies]
...
We also find that teams discount the future at an extraordinary rate (136 percent). -> A 2020 3rd round pick is roughly equal to a 2021 2nd round pick (mean ~32.5)
...
What is the likelihood that a player is better than the next player chosen at his position? ... teams believe that they have the ability to distinguish the good from the great players, implying that this probability is high. If instead teams had no ability to judge talent, the probability would be 50 percent.The answer is 52 percent. Across all rounds, all positions, all years, the chance that aplayer proves to be better than the next best alternative is only slightly better than a coin-flip...
View attachment 2295
This is imho the most interesting finding, as it pretty much confirms what has happened over the last couple of years. It basically tells you which draftslot gives most bang for your buck. In this case for WR it's the second round. It says not that 1st round WRs don't produce, they can still have more yards than a 2nd round WR, but proportionally you're paying more.
This is valid across all positions:..
we find surplus value of the picks during the first round actually increases throughout most of the round: the player selected with the final pick in the first round on average produces more surplus to his team than the first pick!
Implied values relative to the 1st pick are: 5th pick 68%, 10th pick 51%, 16th 38%, 32nd 20% and 64th 7%.
Bottom line: Trade down. The more picks you have in the 1st and 2nd round the more chances you have. And you'd better draft well in the 2nd because there is the most value.
