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General Draft Thoughts

see brandon aiyuk for me is one of the WRs who i think is worthy of a top 40 type pick but your point is generally well made - the player you might get at 55 (unless someone falls) is not going to be too far off what you might find late 3 or early 4 vs what you'd get early 2/late 1
I wouldn't be surprised if Aiyuk gets selected in 1st
 


Underrated.

I know he’s light for a typical ravens edge rusher, but it doesn’t seem to matter for him as it does other edge prospects of a similar size.

*probably would hesitate, but i would be very interested to give him a shot
 
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Man I’ve really liked uche from the start, but i just have such a hard time being all in.

this is one of those decisions that could be easy as a fan, but as a gm who has to assume the responsibility of a bust, you’re gonna really struggle to make the call. Uche is an excellent talent really and a natural football player which I use as basically the highest compliment, but the size and the hybrid label makes it so damn hard to send the card in, he may fall quite a bit for that reason
 
What’s everyone’s thoughts on Kyle dugger as a LB? Small school guys are hard to evaluate but dugger is so dominant on film that you can clearly see he didn’t belong in that environment, and he does have LB traits and tendencies, very downhill guy, very big and physical, covers a shitload of ground really quickly and often does so effortlessly in a strafe sort of motion, natural hip flipper, great pickups in shallow zones, takes great angles in run support.
 
What’s everyone’s thoughts on Kyle dugger as a LB? Small school guys are hard to evaluate but dugger is so dominant on film that you can clearly see he didn’t belong in that environment, and he does have LB traits and tendencies, very downhill guy, very big and physical, covers a shitload of ground really quickly and often does so effortlessly in a strafe sort of motion, natural hip flipper, great pickups in shallow zones, takes great angles in run support.

with dugger im not really worrying about what position he plays - more about what his role would be on this defence and the role would be pretty massive as a LB/Dime who can probably play as a deep safety in a cover 2 if you need because of his range - wouldnt be enamoured with him in the 1st but i have him right around the range i have troy dye and malik harrison in if that helps - someone who will make an early impact

to me he's a safety but im not worried about that with him (in terms of positional need knocking him down the board)
 
What’s everyone’s thoughts on Kyle dugger as a LB? Small school guys are hard to evaluate but dugger is so dominant on film that you can clearly see he didn’t belong in that environment, and he does have LB traits and tendencies, very downhill guy, very big and physical, covers a shitload of ground really quickly and often does so effortlessly in a strafe sort of motion, natural hip flipper, great pickups in shallow zones, takes great angles in run support.

Havent seen nothing of him but another safety that could be a solid LB could be Tanner Muse out of Clemson. He was in on an awful lot of plays and could be a nice day 3 addition. Would be a spteams demon right from the start imo.
 
with dugger im not really worrying about what position he plays - more about what his role would be on this defence and the role would be pretty massive as a LB/Dime who can probably play as a deep safety in a cover 2 if you need because of his range - wouldnt be enamoured with him in the 1st but i have him right around the range i have troy dye and malik harrison in if that helps - someone who will make an early impact

to me he's a safety but im not worried about that with him (in terms of positional need knocking him down the board)
I’ve started to really get on board with him in R2 because I think he’s got Derwin James potential and could be a legit LB but could also play not
Only strong but also free safety
 
since i started hardcore following the draft in 2014 the only time ive seen a media consensus on a ravens pick was CJ Mosley

perriman was not consensus in 2015, stanley wasnt even on the radar in 2016, humphrey was 1 of about 3 bama players who were popular at that pick but OJ Howard was the most consistent pick as i recall, 2018 lamar was posited but there was definitely no consensus - the most popular player mocked to us in 2018 was calvin ridley, 2019 hollywood really wasnt as popular as you remember

so from my perspective CJ Mosley and maybe Marlon Humphrey were the only years where the most popular ravens pick was actually the ravens pick

more often than not we broke the consensus
Analysts doing mocks have a hard time nailing us down. Jimmy Smith was universally mocked to us but that was a long time ago. Mosley maybe ... Stanley no, but they did get the position right, but most had us taking Tunsil. Who knows, that may have been correct if not for the gas mask bong reveal on draft day.

Mocks are too often based on need. They look at their own big board and jam players into slots based on that team's need. To get us right, they'd need to predict our board and then determine who on our board will be left when we're on the clock. That's virtually impossible to do.

Our glaring need is ILB but I'll be surprised if that is our position selected in round 1. My guess is we'd like to get Queen, but he won't fall to us and we won't be willing to trade up to get him. If he falls to 21 or 22 ... we'll explore a trade up, but even that will may still take more than we're willing to give up. I think we love having 5 day 1/2 picks and want to use them given the depth in this draft.
 
Analysts doing mocks have a hard time nailing us down. Jimmy Smith was universally mocked to us but that was a long time ago. Mosley maybe ... Stanley no, but they did get the position right, but most had us taking Tunsil. Who knows, that may have been correct if not for the gas mask bong reveal on draft day.

Mocks are too often based on need. They look at their own big board and jam players into slots based on that team's need. To get us right, they'd need to predict our board and then determine who on our board will be left when we're on the clock. That's virtually impossible to do.

Our glaring need is ILB but I'll be surprised if that is our position selected in round 1. My guess is we'd like to get Queen, but he won't fall to us and we won't be willing to trade up to get him. If he falls to 21 or 22 ... we'll explore a trade up, but even that will may still take more than we're willing to give up. I think we love having 5 day 1/2 picks and want to use them given the depth in this draft.

it's also why EDC can normally nail down who we're going to be picking before draft night starts because he at that point has a general sense of who we're high on that the rest of the league isnt as high on

i honestly am not even sure that if queen (or any other LB) is there that we'll draft them at 28 - from a team building perspective id be interested to know what the analytics say about drafting a LB in round 1 but my guess is they arent kind to the position generally
 
it's also why EDC can normally nail down who we're going to be picking before draft night starts because he at that point has a general sense of who we're high on that the rest of the league isnt as high on

i honestly am not even sure that if queen (or any other LB) is there that we'll draft them at 28 - from a team building perspective id be interested to know what the analytics say about drafting a LB in round 1 but my guess is they arent kind to the position generally
PFF published a research article in feburary addressing offensive and defensive value and which round is best for a certain position.
Unfortunately I don't have a subscription anymore, but I can tell you that linebackers are basically the equivalent of running backs and cornerbacks are generally drafted well in the 1st.
I know there are different models and other variables but it's the most recent study.
 
PFF published a research article in feburary addressing offensive and defensive value and which round is best for a certain position.
Unfortunately I don't have a subscription anymore, but I can tell you that linebackers are basically the equivalent of running backs and cornerbacks are generally drafted well in the 1st.
I know there are different models and other variables but it's the most recent study.

that was my inkling - that LBs value-wise are more easily replaceable than players at other positions just like RBs on offence and partly they are replaceable because their best operation is as part of a platoon so having a 3 down player is less valuable than at other positions

that being said there's clearly a difference somewhat just from the money that LBs are getting on the open market vs the money RBs are getting on the open market
 
that was my inkling - that LBs value-wise are more easily replaceable than players at other positions just like RBs on offence and partly they are replaceable because their best operation is as part of a platoon so having a 3 down player is less valuable than at other positions

that being said there's clearly a difference somewhat just from the money that LBs are getting on the open market vs the money RBs are getting on the open market
True linebackers are still regarded as an integral part of a defense and wear the green dot aka qbs on defense. That's why I think they receive a premium.
 
I think what is being said here is that if you are going to value an ILB as a 1st round talent, he damn well better be a stud ... a 3 down guy who can shed blocks, cover and be a leader on D. Is there such a guy in this draft? Maybe that's Queen but we may not view him as that either.

Given the investments we've made at DE and in apparently holding on to Judon, that's why I said that we are unlikely IMO to draft ILB in the first round. Maybe if Queen falls to us but I don't see us going out of our way to make that pick. I also don't think we're going to go with Murray despite the majority of mocks I'm seeing who are forcing that guy to us based on need.

I think we're far more likely to fill that position in with a lower end pick and probably a low profile guy or two off the cut list (much like we did in 2019).
 
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