I just updated the post. It was actually 16.9%...he let 12 catchable balls hit the turf
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General Draft Thoughts
- Thread starter rossihunter2
- Start date
Edgar
Ravens Ring of Honor
His injuries are a concern but his play is as well. Doesn't appear to get it. he seems to have another gear but is never able to access it. appears to be over thinking. doesn't have a plan as a pass rusher. he's raw.
I guess the hope is that you get him after a fall, perhaps in the third and ST/red shirt him with the hope that the light goes on in year two and you have something dynamic.
JoeyFlex5
Hall of Famer
What I’ve noticed with Lewis is he just doesn’t understand bend, he has the flexibility but he never uses it to finish a rush at the arc, I can’t remember a single time I’ve seen him dip low and flatten the edge after beating the tackle off the jump, but I’ve seen him use his flexibility on inside rushes and counters where he contorts the hell out of himself to get between 2 blockers.
he’s such a weird prospect and I just can’t get a read on him, I keep hearing about his ceiling and how great he could be, but it’s always based on 2 things; explosiveness, and length, you never hear someone who knows something about edge rushers talk about his bend, his rush moves, his smarts, anticipation, nothing, just “this guy is long and explosive”. It’s unfortunate because I have a really nagging feeling that we draft him early
DJ has said this - but if you’re taking Lewis, you’re expecting to get a raw bowl of clay to mould but you will have to mould him - he’s not a ready to go product
as much as I like Lewis, if we want him to start right away, this isn't the season to bring him in, due to the lack of offseason workouts.
i agree - i think he's a 3rd rounder though just on traits, versatility and pressure events - if he goes higher then a team is really confident on his ability to develop
LSURavenFan
Veteran
I would like Ruiz, but I just can't see him being on the board at 28. I find it extremely unlikely that 0 C/G get picked by pick 28.
There seems to be a group of players that could be available by 28
WR- Higgins, Aiyuk, Shenault, Reagor
Edge- Baun, Gross-Matos, Davidson, Epenesa
LB- Queen and Murray are getting lots of buzz. Doubt they are on the board by 28. Good news for those who would prefer Gay jr, or Dye.
S- Mckinney or Delpit. Mckinney may be the true BPA available, but doesn't fill a major need.
OT- Wilson. Jones, Jackson. Always the possibility that they can move to guard
There seems to be a group of players that could be available by 28
WR- Higgins, Aiyuk, Shenault, Reagor
Edge- Baun, Gross-Matos, Davidson, Epenesa
LB- Queen and Murray are getting lots of buzz. Doubt they are on the board by 28. Good news for those who would prefer Gay jr, or Dye.
S- Mckinney or Delpit. Mckinney may be the true BPA available, but doesn't fill a major need.
OT- Wilson. Jones, Jackson. Always the possibility that they can move to guard
oh I agree and I think that's where he will be drafted.
I think he absolutely believes all of the statements, but he is still using them as a smokescreen as well.
JoeyFlex5
Hall of Famer
1 disagreement is the OTs moving to G. I don’t see josh jones as a G at all but he absolutely should be a first round pick.
just from the way he talked to me it sounds like they arent expecting to pick murray or queen themselves - maybe that's a double bluff type deal where they want teams to think they're trying to make it sound like they're not interested but philosophically it makes sense for us not to be that interested in a LB high up
what was most clear in the conference call was that EDC reads a lot of studies on the draft and analytics about the draft in terms of picks etc. and it felt pretty honest - and those sorts of studies are normally strong on 2 different things:
the draft is largely dominated by luck so the more picks you have (within reason) the better your odds - that 1st round trade ups are fundamentally risky unless you think you're getting an elite talent and even then it might not be worth it given that those studies indicate teams only found success with those trade ups maybe 50% of the time
the other thing is the importance of positional value and round value coming together - basically LBs and RBs are replaceable enough and non-valuable in a way that makes it hard to justify taking them in the 1st round from a team-building perspective
so i agree that he believes what's being said but the 2 statements that i think were more misleading were the WR one (which was prompted by being asked what he meant on his joint presser conference call where he said the WR class was prolific) and the LB one where he was specifically asked about Queen and Murray
I absolutely believe him on 1st round trade ups and TEs
he was too specific about those 1st round OTs and what they offer moving inside for that to be a lie - only notable thing was that he name-checked Jedrick Wills, Tristan Wirfs and Mekhi Becton and completely left out Andrew Thomas - i wonder if that was a misspeak, a conscious decision to maybe make other team's second guess their Thomas evaluation, or maybe the Ravens dont view him as a first round talent - any of those 3 options are interesting
im not sold on him as a 1st round pick - but i think he will get picked there
important to point out that when prompted on that question he name-checked only 3 tackles when answering that question: Wills, Wirfs and Becton
not Thomas, Jones or Jackson (or anyone else)
Interesting fact for you all:
The Ravens have never made a pick at 28 in the first round before
we've taken Jimmy Smith at 27 (albeit it was on a skipped pick so should have been the 26th pick), we've taken Ben Grubbs at 29
but those are also the only picks we've made at those picks as well - never picked at 30 either...
i'll do the full 21-32 for everyone:
21: never picked at 21
22: Mark Clayton
23: Michael Oher
24: Ed Reed
25: Hayden Hurst, Marquise Brown
26: Ray Lewis, Breshad Perriman
27: Jimmy Smith
28: never picked at 28
29: Ben Grubbs
30: never picked at 30
31: Todd Heap
32: Matt Elam, Lamar Jackson
so a very mixed bag but some major hits in there too in that range
ultimately it's fairly meaningless but i find it interesting
The Ravens have never made a pick at 28 in the first round before
we've taken Jimmy Smith at 27 (albeit it was on a skipped pick so should have been the 26th pick), we've taken Ben Grubbs at 29
but those are also the only picks we've made at those picks as well - never picked at 30 either...
i'll do the full 21-32 for everyone:
21: never picked at 21
22: Mark Clayton
23: Michael Oher
24: Ed Reed
25: Hayden Hurst, Marquise Brown
26: Ray Lewis, Breshad Perriman
27: Jimmy Smith
28: never picked at 28
29: Ben Grubbs
30: never picked at 30
31: Todd Heap
32: Matt Elam, Lamar Jackson
so a very mixed bag but some major hits in there too in that range
ultimately it's fairly meaningless but i find it interesting
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JoeyFlex5
Hall of Famer
I think the trade up value is gonna be hugely skewed by qbs. That’s the most traditional position to trade up for and the failure rate of first round qbs is pretty damn high and idk the math on this but it feels like probably most first round qbs are traded up for unless you’re picking in the top 10
More fun facts:
the last decade of picks made at 28:
2019: Jerry Tillery
2018: Terrell Edmunds
2017: Taco Charlton
2016: Joshua Garnett
2015: Laken Tomlinson
2014: Kelvin Benjamin
2013: Sylvester Williams
2012: Nick Perry
2011: Mark Ingram
2010: Jared Odrick
ooft...
maybe let's trade out of that pick lol - that's horrendous
the last decade of picks made at 28:
2019: Jerry Tillery
2018: Terrell Edmunds
2017: Taco Charlton
2016: Joshua Garnett
2015: Laken Tomlinson
2014: Kelvin Benjamin
2013: Sylvester Williams
2012: Nick Perry
2011: Mark Ingram
2010: Jared Odrick
ooft...
maybe let's trade out of that pick lol - that's horrendous
i think positionally though that's acceptable value-wise
i cant remember where it was but i saw a study that basically said the only position other than QB you should even bother trading up for in round 1 is EDGE from a value standpoint
just generally even if the success rate is above 50% that's not a good option really anyway because unless the tradeup is huge you're losing the opportunity to draft at the original pick and you have to take into account who you might have got had you not traded up and whether it was worth it - and so even if 50% of the time you trade up you're successful, you might be just as likely to be successful if you stick at your original pick (but also have additional lottery tickets)
it's tough but i do think the analytics here are correct - ultimately unless you are sure there's an elite player in range, there's incredibly high risk in going up to get a player
and with regards to QB trades skewing - idk that QB trades in the 1st round have been that bad overall (certainly recently you could argue they've been fairly successful for the most part)
Ravensnation5220
Ravens Ring of Honor
Totally agree especially with the first 2. It's like to brush off the perception that were looking to trade up or draft a WR in the first 3 rounds. Which I think would be asinine