NFL year after year has become more and more level of a playing field. There just aren't that many great teams. In fact, this year, I would say there aren't any great teams. With that being said it's all relative.
At the top I think you have:
1) Chiefs, Eagles, and 49ers.
2) Bills, Dolphins, Cowboys
3) Lions, Jags, Browns
After that are there even any teams that are relevant? Chargers, Bengals, Steelers?
I don't feel like there are 8 teams that could win the SB.
Funniest thing of all is idk where I'd put the Ravens. They could be better than literally everyone else or they could be Chargers tier. Let's see how this team matures on the back half.
For the AFC (assuming no long term injuries to their QBs):
Chiefs, Jags, Dolphins, Ravens, Bengals. I have high confidence those five teams will make the playoffs. No idea who wins the North, though. I have hopes for us, mostly because the Bengals have a tough stretch here in the next 5-6 weeks, but they also have a softer Dec schedule than the Ravens do. Bengals could be 5-5 or 5-6 and still end up finishing 10-7.
I think the Bills are a playoff team only because the AFC is much worse than anybody anticipated. I actually have decent wagers in the preseason on fading Buffalo to make the playoffs. Their "decline", which is a little overstated, is not surprising in the slightest. Buffalo really does very little "well" as a football team, has basically no identity, and there's a lot of noise on that team. Easily one of the least talented playoff teams.
I have no idea who takes the 7th spot, but I guess by default it'll be Pittsburgh. I have no faith in Cleveland. They're one of the top 3-4 most talented rosters in football, but Watson is injured and sucks when he's not injured. They're literally in a dog fight week in and week out against average or below average teams to win. Extremely dependent on their defense, and I think they'll just be too inconsistent to make it. Though their schedule isn't difficult.
Pittsburgh is slightly better than Cleveland, and has an easy schedule also.
Chargers are an afterthought. Stick a fork in them. They need to suck so they can fire Staley. Most of their tough games at home (meaningless in LA though), but they still play Ravens, Bills, Chiefs, Lions. They could easily lose all four of those games. That's 8-9 losses right there.
So if I were to guess today:
1. Chiefs
2. Jags
3. Dolphins
4. Ravens
5. Steelers
6. Bengals
7. Bills
Maybe some swapping in the seeds. I think Pittsburgh and Jacksonville will have better seeds than people think.