Signings, Cuts, Trades

[gtalk12]

Oweh is walking after his 5th year option. Someone will give him an absurd contract based on potential and well be correct in letting him go

absurd is a strong word. He has not done anything close to ZDS or Judon to get that kind of contract.

I am with you though, I think he leaves

 

[29BmoreBird22]

Madubuike is a large part of the roster. You can’t leave your cornerstone players unsigned because you’re scared to lose other players, that’s football and if you are going to build a contender you need elite players at key spots plus depth, it’s just gonna take trading and stacking draft picks to maintain, we’re in a different phase of team building now that Lamar is signed, but letting star players walk to keep a stable of veteran role players is not a winning formula, I’ll take a backloaded rams-like approach over the 2013-2018 ravens where we spent our remaining cap space on one aging vet after another, thinking it would get us over the playoff hump.

I just don't think Madibuike is elite. I think he's a quality player and someone you'd love to keep on your roster, but I think his box score stats are largely inflated and he falls into the category of a player who will receive a bigger contract than he's worth. I am expecting definite regression. I think his current play is unsustainable. I wouldn't break the bank on him when the Ravens have a pretty bare bones roster at key positions elsewhere.

 

[29BmoreBird22]

Well would point out that restructures aren't the only option. If you cut Bowser, Ricard, and Hill, that's $12M in cap savings alone. Paycuts would also be obvious discussions for all three of those guys.
I probably wouldn't do it if we're moving on from Stanley, but cutting Moses is a possibility also. That's $5.5M in savings, and you have Mekari and Faalele on the roster for cheaper.

In addition, there are cap reductions to be had (in the short term) if you sign extensions with some of your expiring guys (OBJ, Zeitler, namely. OBJ in particular you could be cutting his cap hit in half nearly if you get him to agree to stay on a much cheaper contract.

And speaking of paycuts, I wouldn't take the idea of Stanley being asked to take a paycut off the table either. He's owed $15M next year, and I don't know if he could get that on the open market with his injury history and performance this year. A better overall "outcome" would be to broach Stanley for a paycut, keep him, and draft a Tackle at some point in the draft (meaning it doesn't have to be a first rounder).

The one true thing we don't know is if the Ravens will continue to use void years (my guess is they won't). If they're willing to do max void years on many deals, like they did with OBJ, for example, they can really do whatever they want.

I do expect Bowser to be cut, but I'm iffy on Ricard. Could see that one going either way. I do not see Hill being a cap casualty when it would leave the Ravens with zero healthy running backs on the roster and the Ravens have clearly shown they value Hill and his skillset. I'd also be surprised at a Moses cut because he's been really solid when healthy (and he is drastically healthier than not) and that would mean the Ravens aren't potentially turning over their entire line.

I certainty hope they re-sign Zeitler and OBJ, but I could see a world where they view Zeitler as too old and don't want to commit a long-term contract, but he wants one. I think they'll definitely try to work something out with OBJ. I think he loves being here and reports are the locker room loves him. He's also definitely stepped up recently, so I'd think he'll be back. Otherwise, the Ravens are left with Zay, Bateman, and Wallace and I don't think they want that.

I imagine they'll ask Stanley to take a paycut, and I wouldn't be shocked to see him decline. The Ravens aren't getting a quality replacement at $8M and Stanley almost assuredly knows he's gone in '24, anyway. Might want to cash in for a final year. Plus, I don't think the Ravens want impending holes at LG, RG, and LT. I also don't think they want Mekari starting there. I imagine they love his versatility too much to want to put him in the starting role if they can avoid it.

 

[Simba]

There have been debates about the pressure numbers so dropping this here for reference...

 

[Baltimorican]

Oweh is walking after his 5th year option. Someone will give him an absurd contract based on potential and well be correct in letting him go

If you know the breakout is coming, and I think it pretty clearly is, you can sign him on that potential right now. 4 yr/55m for Oweh, 4 yr 42m for Stephens. 2 players at premium positions for what Mads will cost with less guaranteed.

 

[Baltimorican]

We have no way of knowing until Lamar starts to age. I can tell you that of all the mobile QB's he's more like Wilson than Vick and Newton. He is 4th on the all time list and will pass 3rd by the end of the year in a fraction of the games.

Wilson is a thicker body type who averaged about 90 rushes/400 yds a season. Wilson is in the Prescott/McNabb/McNair/Hurts category and the track record on those guys is fall off at about 30 y/o with the cliff at early 30's. The Cowboys are gonna regret big time giving Prescott another big contract at 30 just like the Seahawks were so loathe to extend Russ at that age. Vick/Cunningham/Young/Jackson age even quicker.

If you're looking for a Roth type who can extend his elite career from the pocket into his mid 30's you're best bet is Josh Allen.

 

[rmcjacket23]

I do expect Bowser to be cut, but I'm iffy on Ricard. Could see that one going either way. I do not see Hill being a cap casualty when it would leave the Ravens with zero healthy running backs on the roster and the Ravens have clearly shown they value Hill and his skillset. I'd also be surprised at a Moses cut because he's been really solid when healthy (and he is drastically healthier than not) and that would mean the Ravens aren't potentially turning over their entire line.

I certainty hope they re-sign Zeitler and OBJ, but I could see a world where they view Zeitler as too old and don't want to commit a long-term contract, but he wants one. I think they'll definitely try to work something out with OBJ. I think he loves being here and reports are the locker room loves him. He's also definitely stepped up recently, so I'd think he'll be back. Otherwise, the Ravens are left with Zay, Bateman, and Wallace and I don't think they want that.

I imagine they'll ask Stanley to take a paycut, and I wouldn't be shocked to see him decline. The Ravens aren't getting a quality replacement at $8M and Stanley almost assuredly knows he's gone in '24, anyway. Might want to cash in for a final year. Plus, I don't think the Ravens want impending holes at LG, RG, and LT. I also don't think they want Mekari starting there. I imagine they love his versatility too much to want to put him in the starting role if they can avoid it.

Generally agree. Just mostly pointing out how the FO is going to look at things. If keeping JM is the priority (or really true with Queen also), and you're considering the FT or even a long-term extension, there's going to have to be cuts. Restructures won't be enough. And the guys I listed are the one's who make the most sense from a cut standpoint. There's a large contingent of our roster that basically can't be cut, due to size of the contract or the fact that they're cheaper on rookie deals.

Stanley will be interesting. I don't think he could get $15M elsewhere, so the option of "cashing in" I'm not certain is available to him. He would also be taking a huge risk that IF the Ravens opt to do nothing and keep him, and then find themselves taking a LT in the first round or somehow higher in the draft, he becomes a cut casualty immediately after that as a post-June 1. In which case he then heads to a FA market that is 3 months stale and post-draft, meaning many teams have filled their needs. It's a pretty big risk for him to take.

 

[rmcjacket23]

If you know the breakout is coming, and I think it pretty clearly is, you can sign him on that potential right now. 4 yr/55m for Oweh, 4 yr 42m for Stephens. 2 players at premium positions for what Mads will cost with less guaranteed.

Nobody really "knows" when a breakout is coming. Those contracts could also look like dog shit after a year or two if 2023 is the peak of what they bring.
I like both players, but I'd be surprised to see the Ravens in a position to hand out extensions to either this offseason. Oweh especially. Stephens would be a prime mid-season extension in '24 if he continues to perform next year at this level.

 

[Baltimorican]

Nobody really "knows" when a breakout is coming. Those contracts could also look like dog shit after a year or two if 2023 is the peak of what they bring.
I like both players, but I'd be surprised to see the Ravens in a position to hand out extensions to either this offseason. Oweh especially. Stephens would be a prime mid-season extension in '24 if he continues to perform next year at this level.

Maybe, but that's what the smart franchises do, they see the guy in practice every day for 3 yrs and buy into the breakout before it happens. Mads at 100m has just as much risk of not being that player for the next 5 yrs. If you wait for a guy like Stephens to show it for another 6 months its already too late.

 

[gtalk12]

Wilson is a thicker body type who averaged about 90 rushes/400 yds a season. Wilson is in the Prescott/McNabb/McNair/Hurts category and the track record on those guys is fall off at about 30 y/o with the cliff at early 30's. The Cowboys are gonna regret big time giving Prescott another big contract at 30 just like the Seahawks were so loathe to extend Russ at that age. Vick/Cunningham/Young/Jackson age even quicker.

If you're looking for a Roth type who can extend his elite career from the pocket into his mid 30's you're best bet is Josh Allen.

Have you seen Josh Allen play? That guy tries to run into guys all the time.

I am not sure that the Cowboys will regret paying Dak, nothing indicates that his game is going to fall flat on it's face. There's no sure thing in the NFL, whether you are a traditional QB or not. There is no way to guarantee that you will get every penny is going to be worth it for any given player. If you're a GM and worried about an injury, which can happen to any player in and out of the pocket, then you probably should not be a GM

 

[Baltimorican]

Have you seen Josh Allen play? That guy tries to run into guys all the time.

I am not sure that the Cowboys will regret paying Dak, nothing indicates that his game is going to fall flat on it's face. There's no sure thing in the NFL, whether you are a traditional QB or not. There is no way to guarantee that you will get every penny is going to be worth it for any given player. If you're a GM and worried about an injury, which can happen to any player in and out of the pocket, then you probably should not be a GM

Early in the year Prescott looked flat out cooked, wasn't running anymore and when he did didn't look good. He's had hip surgery. A great midseason run by his Oline (didn't give up a sack for like a month) and a half dozen scrambles where he turned back the clock is going to get him 4yrs/200m. As a long time fan of players like McNabb, McNair and Russ, I'd put the odds squarely on Dak not living up to it.

As for Allen, yes he could destroy himself like Cam or Culppeper but at least there is precedent for that body type/style playing well into mid late 30's with Roth and Elway. If Lamar has 10 elite seasons he would be the first of his kind. Worse still he'd be the first with more than 5-6 continuous elite seasons.

 

[rmcjacket23]

Maybe, but that's what the smart franchises do, they see the guy in practice every day for 3 yrs and buy into the breakout before it happens. Mads at 100m has just as much risk of not being that player for the next 5 yrs. If you wait for a guy like Stephens to show it for another 6 months its already too late.

Why is it too late? You can franchise him if he's that great, or sign him to an extension after he hits FA. Let the market decide what his value is. Maybe its less than what you have to pay him now. Marlon didn't even get extended until his year 4 season started, and he's a better player and prospect with a longer track record.

Mads contract will be bigger, but the gtd $ won't be. Mads gtd $ will be in the same range of what you gave Marlon/Stanley.

With Stephens, I don't even think he's accept that offer anyway, and with Oweh, I think he'd laugh it off. You're offering him less than $14M a year and he'll probably make close to that on the 5th year option if its picked up. And if you're not picking up his option, then there's really no point in discussing extension to begin with.

 

[Baltimorican]

Why is it too late? You can franchise him if he's that great, or sign him to an extension after he hits FA. Let the market decide what his value is. Maybe its less than what you have to pay him now. Marlon didn't even get extended until his year 4 season started, and he's a better player and prospect with a longer track record.

Mads contract will be bigger, but the gtd $ won't be. Mads gtd $ will be in the same range of what you gave Marlon/Stanley.

With Stephens, I don't even think he's accept that offer anyway, and with Oweh, I think he'd laugh it off. You're offering him less than $14M a year and he'll probably make close to that on the 5th year option if its picked up. And if you're not picking up his option, then there's really no point in discussing extension to begin with.

Franchising after the breakout is exactly what bad franchises with poor vision do. The good ones sign the year before.

 

[gtalk12]

Early in the year Prescott looked flat out cooked, wasn't running anymore and when he did didn't look good. He's had hip surgery. A great midseason run by his Oline (didn't give up a sack for like a month) and a half dozen scrambles where he turned back the clock is going to get him 4yrs/200m. As a long time fan of players like McNabb, McNair and Russ, I'd put the odds squarely on Dak not living up to it.

As for Allen, yes he could destroy himself like Cam or Culppeper but at least there is precedent for that body type/style playing well into mid late 30's with Roth and Elway. If Lamar has 10 elite seasons he would be the first of his kind.

Dak right now is having his second best season at the age of 30

 

[RavensMania]

2/3 names you mentioned have never been pass rushing guys. You didn’t bring them in to be that so no scheme is going to make them that. Maybe it is just a coincidence that JM is having his success at the same time a bunch of other pass rushers on the team are all having career years.

I just think it’s more likely the coverage is creating these opportunities so keeping that together is more important. I get the feeling he is going to get paid like he will be a 12-16 sack a year guy when he probably is in the 7-11 a year group for the next 5 years. 7-11 is still a very good player but not for the money he gets.

it's not just sacks though. If he were only getting sacks and not creating pressures than I would say let him go as I did earlier in the year, but he has had a lot more pressures over the last several weeks. He's only improving.

Do I think he gets 12-16 sacks next year, probably not, but do I feel he gets 20m+. Absolutely and I hope it's from the Ravens with a good contract structure.

 

[RavensMania]

Franchising after the breakout is exactly what bad franchises with poor vision do. The good ones sign the year before.

they absolutely tried this offseason and it is well documented. JM bet on himself. It's also why we extended B. Washington.

 

[rmcjacket23]

Franchising after the breakout is exactly what bad franchises with poor vision do. The good ones sign the year before.

Or the one's that make sure the breakout isn't just a flash in the pan. Plenty of contract extensions handed out to players after year 3 that ended up being bad contracts to ineffective players. And those are coming from "good GMs" too, as well as GMs who are no longer GMs.

And ultimately, if they walk, they walk. This team isn't going to plummet into oblivion because they didn't re-sign Brandon Stephens, or somehow have to pay him more because they waited longer to do it. Good player. Not great, generational, "can't win without him" player.

Per usual, the entirety of the next five years will live or die based on how your franchise QB performs.

 

[Baltimorican]

they absolutely tried this offseason and it is well documented. JM bet on himself. It's also why we extended B. Washington.

Yup, the LJ contract handcuffed us this offseason also. I'm not blaming the Ravens, just saying you have to keep making the smart plays and that doesn't include waiting for breakouts and franchising. Sign the other young guys instead.

 

[RavensMania]

Yup, the LJ contract handcuffed us this offseason also. I'm not blaming the Ravens, just saying you have to keep making the smart plays and that doesn't include waiting for breakouts and franchising. Sign the other young guys instead.

definitely what we have tried to do and have done with multiple players.

 

[SepticeyePoe]

Early in the year Prescott looked flat out cooked, wasn't running anymore and when he did didn't look good. He's had hip surgery. A great midseason run by his Oline (didn't give up a sack for like a month) and a half dozen scrambles where he turned back the clock is going to get him 4yrs/200m. As a long time fan of players like McNabb, McNair and Russ, I'd put the odds squarely on Dak not living up to it.

As for Allen, yes he could destroy himself like Cam or Culppeper but at least there is precedent for that body type/style playing well into mid late 30's with Roth and Elway. If Lamar has 10 elite seasons he would be the first of his kind. Worse still he'd be the first with more than 5-6 continuous elite seasons.

Aren't Cam and Allen about the same size?