An now Alex Smith isn't even a comp
Or he can regress as a passer like Goff and Wentz have. I wouldn't pay him just yet. Id rather pay more later and be right than be wrong and pay now. That will absolutely destroy the team and we would be forced to tank to rebuild.
Well, for starters, I don't think Goff or Wentz have really regressed at all. I think Goff is the same QB he's been for years, they just can't run the ball like they used to. Wentz just has 3 defenders in his face on every play because their offensive line is pathetic and they have no receiving talent. Wentz will be an exceptional QB with the next team he plays on (assuming Philly moves on after this year), provided they don't make the same mistakes the Eagles did.
I'm just not seeing many ways Lamar can regress as a passer. I can see ways he doesn't improve, but I'm not seeing where he's all of the sudden going to become significantly worse. That'll be especially true if teams continue to sell out to stop the run.
The reality is...extending him now isn't going to crush the franchise, unless you hand him like a 10 year extension. He's got two years, at a minimum left, without an extension. A sharp decline as a passer isn't very likely in that short of a period of time, especially based off what we've seen so far. More likely if you see the decline it'll be 3,4,5 years from now, once his speed as a runner starts to decline and he becomes more of a pocket QB. So if you extend him now, you'll be on the back end of that deal when his skills potentially start to diminish.
I'm not really worried about how much its going to cost either. The point is you should actually try to align compensation with production, i.e. if you think he's going to be better when he's younger, you should pay him as better when he's younger. You wait 2 more years to extend him, you'll be handing a $40M, 4-5 year contract to a 27 year old QB who will almost certainly see diminishing running ability by 30. Not ideal if you ask me.
It doesn't kill a franchise to sign a guy early. It kills a franchise to have a descending player with a monsterous cap hit that you can't get out of.
Plus, remember, we didn't have to tank to get Lamar, so its not a guarantee we'd have to tank to get his replacement either.