Signings, Cuts, Trades

[Simba]

im there looking at who's coming available and legitimately starting to think those 3 or 4 teams with a ton of cap space could legitimately for the first time ever build themselves into legit contenders (at least for a year or 2) purely out of free agency

for the first time ever you could probably technically actually build an elite offensive line out of the guys available in free agency - not sure i can remember a time when that was even remotely possible

will be very interesting to see what the jets and colts do - think the colts are in a great spot but still dont trust their QB at all lol - think the jets have a legitimate chance to turn their whole franchise around

Agreed. OL has been ravaged by this cap situation. Usually that's a hard position to find but some teams just got incredibly lucky this year, and they don't have to outbid many others. Also tanks OBJ's trade value a little bit with the shear number of available options, so you have to think a trade is becoming more and more unlikely by the day.

 

[JO_75]

Poor Schwartz... celebrated his Anniversary with his wife yesterday and cut today. Damn what a cruel world.

Mitchell had been dealing with a back injury since week 7 and is getting surgery soon to fix it. Seems these are more injury related than anything.

 

[rmcjacket23]

Poor Schwartz... celebrated his Anniversary with his wife yesterday and cut today. Damn what a cruel world.

Mitchell had been dealing with a back injury since week 7 and is getting surgery soon to fix it. Seems these are more injury related than anything.

He's apparently considering retirement.

 

[rossihunter2]

Agreed. OL has been ravaged by this cap situation. Usually that's a hard position to find but some teams just got incredibly lucky this year, and they don't have to outbid many others. Also tanks OBJ's trade value a little bit with the shear number of available options, so you have to think a trade is becoming more and more unlikely by the day.

i guess it depends what phase a load of teams are in - there may well be a large group of teams who with no cap space are committing to just sucking at various spots this year so a vet with depressed value is fine for now

but there's still tons of teams with holes at tackle who will be looking for high quality play

i dont think any of these cuts have particularly impacted orlando's value - he's still a high quality tackle (that's hard to find), who's right now on a tiny salary (even harder to find and extra valuable in a year with very little cap space even with the understanding that you'd likely have to extend him

if anything i think it might even open up his market a bit more - teams that did have serviceable guys now have no one and not a ton of cap space to work with - which leaves them basically only with the dregs of free agency, orlando (via trade) or a draft pick (or multiple draft picks) who may or may not pan out

 

[rossihunter2]

lol

 

[rmcjacket23]

i guess it depends what phase a load of teams are in - there may well be a large group of teams who with no cap space are committing to just sucking at various spots this year so a vet with depressed value is fine for now

but there's still tons of teams with holes at tackle who will be looking for high quality play

i dont think any of these cuts have particularly impacted orlando's value - he's still a high quality tackle (that's hard to find), who's right now on a tiny salary (even harder to find and extra valuable in a year with very little cap space even with the understanding that you'd likely have to extend him

if anything i think it might even open up his market a bit more - teams that did have serviceable guys now have no one and not a ton of cap space to work with - which leaves them basically only with the dregs of free agency, orlando (via trade) or a draft pick (or multiple draft picks) who may or may not pan out

Agreed.

Plus, just look at the LT market, since that's where Brown is heading for:
Eric Fisher just became easily the best LT on the market, and I think he would qualify as "average" at this point.
You've got Trent Williams, who's 33 and has a history of injury concerns
Riley Reiff I guess could play LT, but he was never a good one, is probably better suited for RT, and is also 33.
Jason Peters is 39. No idea if he's even planning to play this year.
And Alejandro Villanueva, who is 33. I also somehow expect he may end up back in Pittsburgh anyway.

So like, as of now, its probably Fisher at 30 who stands the most to gain, but then its literally like 33+ year old guys who are easily in the twilight of their careers.

I think Brown, even having only played like a half a season of LT, would do substantially better than pretty much all of these guys if he was a FA, he'd be easily the most coveted LT on the market, and I don't think it would be particularly close either.

Like the market for Tackles is "improving" just based on who's getting cut, but I'm not seeing a team who's going to cut a quality Tackle on probably either side who's really that much under the age of 30. And a 25-26 year old hitting the market who's as good as Brown at either spot would have a very robust market.

 

[rossihunter2]

Agreed.

Plus, just look at the LT market, since that's where Brown is heading for:
Eric Fisher just became easily the best LT on the market, and I think he would qualify as "average" at this point.
You've got Trent Williams, who's 33 and has a history of injury concerns
Riley Reiff I guess could play LT, but he was never a good one, is probably better suited for RT, and is also 33.
Jason Peters is 39. No idea if he's even planning to play this year.
And Alejandro Villanueva, who is 33. I also somehow expect he may end up back in Pittsburgh anyway.

So like, as of now, its probably Fisher at 30 who stands the most to gain, but then its literally like 33+ year old guys who are easily in the twilight of their careers.

I think Brown, even having only played like a half a season of LT, would do substantially better than pretty much all of these guys if he was a FA, he'd be easily the most coveted LT on the market, and I don't think it would be particularly close either.

Like the market for Tackles is "improving" just based on who's getting cut, but I'm not seeing a team who's going to cut a quality Tackle on probably either side who's really that much under the age of 30. And a 25-26 year old hitting the market who's as good as Brown at either spot would have a very robust market.

exactly - and we can talk about a great tackle draft class potentially depressing his market but it's also likely that those teams most likely to be most into Orlando aren't likely to be picking in the top 20 anyway where the sure-fire guys will go

there's other options later in the 1st but no guarantees and a lot of those late 1st, 2nd round guys look to be good fits at RT vs LT (or with some maybe even sliding inside)

and it's not just that Orlando's market would be big as a free agent because it would be - but the fact that his first year will have a base salary of less than 3.5m on a future team means he's way cheaper than any of those free agent options in the 1 year where he'll have to be cheap (obviously gets more expensive if he gets extended but unlikely still to cost anywhere near as much in 2021 as any of the guys hitting the market)

 

[rmcjacket23]

lol

In fairness... Mahomes has a $24.8M cap hit this year, so hardly "team killing". Obviously it'll get worse in future years, but we're not there yet. He doesn't even have the highest cap hit on his own team right now.

Frank Clark, Chris Jones, and Tyranne Mathieu combined cost over $67M against the cap. If you add in Mahomes, those 4 players alone count for almost exactly 50% of the teams total salary cap.

 

[rossihunter2]

In fairness... Mahomes has a $24.8M cap hit this year, so hardly "team killing". Obviously it'll get worse in future years, but we're not there yet. He doesn't even have the highest cap hit on his own team right now.

Frank Clark, Chris Jones, and Tyranne Mathieu combined cost over $67M against the cap. If you add in Mahomes, those 4 players alone count for almost exactly 50% of the teams total salary cap.

oh i 100% don't buy into it - just thought it was funny

 

[Simba]

i guess it depends what phase a load of teams are in - there may well be a large group of teams who with no cap space are committing to just sucking at various spots this year so a vet with depressed value is fine for now

but there's still tons of teams with holes at tackle who will be looking for high quality play

i dont think any of these cuts have particularly impacted orlando's value - he's still a high quality tackle (that's hard to find), who's right now on a tiny salary (even harder to find and extra valuable in a year with very little cap space even with the understanding that you'd likely have to extend him

if anything i think it might even open up his market a bit more - teams that did have serviceable guys now have no one and not a ton of cap space to work with - which leaves them basically only with the dregs of free agency, orlando (via trade) or a draft pick (or multiple draft picks) who may or may not pan out

Devil's advocate side that I should have mentioned... these teams with no cap space would also be giving up a 1 to not have an extension in place. You can surely kick money down the line but that's a really hard deal to do right now if they have to make this many cuts just to get under the cap. And it's hard (but not impossible) to give up a 1 without an extension in place.

 

[rmcjacket23]

Devil's advocate side that I should have mentioned... these teams with no cap space would also be giving up a 1 to not have an extension in place. You can surely kick money down the line but that's a really hard deal to do right now if they have to make this many cuts just to get under the cap. And it's hard (but not impossible) to give up a 1 without an extension in place.

True, but the franchise tag is an option for next year also if they don't get an extension in place.
Hard to know exactly what that would be, but probably in the $17M range is what I've seen some project, which would probably be at or even slightly below Brown's market value anyway. Given that you're getting him at like $3.3M this year, that essentially means you can get him for 2 years at around $20M total, without even a long term extension in place. And if you were a team that I guess had some ?s about whether he can be a good LT long term, it gives you 1-2 years to figure that out before you commit.

I do agree that a really cap-strapped team, like the Saints or Eagles, probably won't be in the market for that trade. But even a team who has like $5-10M in space or something like that can easily take on a $3.3M cap hit in most cases, and could also still sign an extension with a big signing bonus that gets prorated. He could get a lucrative deal and still have a 2021 cap hit of like $7-8M or less in a lot of cases.

 

[Simba]

True, but the franchise tag is an option for next year also if they don't get an extension in place.
Hard to know exactly what that would be, but probably in the $17M range is what I've seen some project, which would probably be at or even slightly below Brown's market value anyway. Given that you're getting him at like $3.3M this year, that essentially means you can get him for 2 years at around $20M total, without even a long term extension in place. And if you were a team that I guess had some ?s about whether he can be a good LT long term, it gives you 1-2 years to figure that out before you commit.

I do agree that a really cap-strapped team, like the Saints or Eagles, probably won't be in the market for that trade. But even a team who has like $5-10M in space or something like that can easily take on a $3.3M cap hit in most cases, and could also still sign an extension with a big signing bonus that gets prorated. He could get a lucrative deal and still have a 2021 cap hit of like $7-8M or less in a lot of cases.

Oh agreed with that. It's a risk/reward type of thing. Just a tough year to expect a team to give up a 1 because those cheap guys are going to be the backbone of a lot of teams this year. A deal absolutely could materialize but it just seems to get more and more difficult by the day. The teams with money have kind of a dealer's choice and the teams without money could use a nice rookie contract. OBJ could work for some teams for sure, but his market definitely has some pretty big limitations in this cluster of a year.

 

[rmcjacket23]

Oh agreed with that. It's a risk/reward type of thing. Just a tough year to expect a team to give up a 1 because those cheap guys are going to be the backbone of a lot of teams this year. A deal absolutely could materialize but it just seems to get more and more difficult by the day. The teams with money have kind of a dealer's choice and the teams without money could use a nice rookie contract. OBJ could work for some teams for sure, but his market definitely has some pretty big limitations in this cluster of a year.

I'm not expecting to get a 1. Really never have. If we do, it'll be a late 1 or a 2022 1. I think the offers we get will be in the 2nd + day 3 pick areas, which is also ultimately why I don't think he gets dealt.

Outside chance we could get a decent deal if he's traded mid-season to a contender who is desperate for Oline help, but I would assume we're a contender also, and that we would need to have somebody on the roster who can step into that role and not derail our season.

Basically another reason why I don't think a trade will happen. If we're trying to win in 2021, it just doesn't make a ton of sense. If Lamar tears his ACL in September and we're 2-6 by Halloween, then I'd take whatever offer I can get for him and move on.

 

[JAAM]

6 teams showing interest in Orlando

https://www.nfl.com/news/six-teams-showing-interest-in-baltimore-ravens-ot-orlando-brown-jr

 

[Simba]

6 teams showing interest in Orlando

https://www.nfl.com/news/six-teams-showing-interest-in-baltimore-ravens-ot-orlando-brown-jr

Interesting note in there that a contract would have to come along with the trade.

 

[rossihunter2]

6 teams showing interest in Orlando

https://www.nfl.com/news/six-teams-showing-interest-in-baltimore-ravens-ot-orlando-brown-jr

the problem for me here is that Giardi seemed to suggest that we'd only be looking at a day 2 pick in compensation - i cannot fathom a world in which we decide that's good enough compensation

apparently the Vikings are one of the teams interested (which makes a lot of sense)

my guess is colts and chargers at least 2 of the other teams "interested"

it was very pointed "All parties involved seem confident a deal will get done to send Brown elsewhere for his fourth NFL season,"

but i just dont see a day 2 pick being anywhere enough to make that a foregone conclusion - suggests to me that there must be at least 1 team getting close to the amount of compensation we'd accept

 

[jboy19]

the problem for me here is that Giardi seemed to suggest that we'd only be looking at a day 2 pick in compensation - i cannot fathom a world in which we decide that's good enough compensation

apparently the Vikings are one of the teams interested (which makes a lot of sense)

my guess is colts and chargers at least 2 of the other teams "interested"

it was very pointed "All parties involved seem confident a deal will get done to send Brown elsewhere for his fourth NFL season,"

but i just dont see a day 2 pick being anywhere enough to make that a foregone conclusion - suggests to me that there must be at least 1 team getting close to the amount of compensation we'd accept

Agreed. Since a Compensatory 3rd is a foregone conclusion if he stays this season, I don't see the difference between even a high 2nd and the Comp pick being worth giving up a season without, arguably, the best pair of tackles in the NFL.

 

[JAAM]

Something tells me Orlando will be a Viking, and I think EDC will really try to grab Thielen, or at the very least, a swap of firsts and a third from them. I do want Thielen though. He’s relatively cheap this season.

 

[JoeyFlex5]

give me the jags 33rd and 65th picks for big O. at 27 i am seriously comfortable with replacing him, the class is so deep that guys will slide, when you got guys like teven jenkins, AVT, dillon radunz, jalen mayfield, and liam eichenberg all having a fair argument to go between 20-40 or 30-40 then you are almost certain to find a guy who you are comfortable with, personally i would take any of those guys except for eichenberg at 27. then you have the 33rd pick which is a pick you can wheel and deal all night with, and the 65th pick, both picks being in the best value range of this class, flipping the 33rd could prove to be huge as well.

probably shouldnt hope for such specific outcomes lol but whatever

 

[JoeyFlex5]

Something tells me Orlando will be a Viking, and I think EDC will really try to grab Thielen, or at the very least, a swap of firsts and a third from them. I do want Thielen though. He’s relatively cheap this season.

seems odd that they would give us so much extra after that even player swap. the swap and third makes it so one sided