Signings, Cuts, Trades

[JoeyFlex5]

Does Julio have a no-trade clause? Maybe I'm in the minority, but I cant imagine he really wants to come to Baltimore.

We're certainly closer to a Super Bowl than the Falcons, but his stats and role would decrease significantly in Baltimore. For someone who is a consistent 1,000 yard WR and “the guy”, is he really going to be ok taking on his new role? When he only sees 4-5 passes a game I'd imagine the frustration is inevitable for a WR of his caliber.


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If the Falcons are shopping him then I’d venture to guess he doesn’t have a no trade clause.

and with the ravens, you either wanna be here or you don’t, you wanna compete for a super bowl, you wanna be part of something new and unique and special, players gravitate to Lamar Jackson, the ravens are a pretty universally loved franchise by every player who’s ever been here. I’d find it really hard to believe that Julio, at his age, would come here and complain about lack of targets. There are plenty of receivers who would do just that, but not Julio, he just doesn’t fit that mold. A great WR=\=a diva WR

 

[BoredMarine13]

If the Falcons are shopping him then I’d venture to guess he doesn’t have a no trade clause.

and with the ravens, you either wanna be here or you don’t, you wanna compete for a super bowl, you wanna be part of something new and unique and special, players gravitate to Lamar Jackson, the ravens are a pretty universally loved franchise by every player who’s ever been here. I’d find it really hard to believe that Julio, at his age, would come here and complain about lack of targets. There are plenty of receivers who would do just that, but not Julio, he just doesn’t fit that mold. A great WR=\=a diva WR

Yeah but he's never had to worry about being the diva because he's averaged 132 targets a year since he entered the league. That includes his injury shortened years.
Probably a mute point since this isn't a Ravens type of trade, but if we did, is have concerns with his fit in a run-heavy offense.


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[JoeyFlex5]

Yeah but he's never had to worry about being the diva because he's averaged 132 targets a year since he entered the league. That includes his injury shortened years.
Probably a mute point since this isn't a Ravens type of trade, but if we did, is have concerns with his fit in a run-heavy offense.


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For a majority of players I’d say this is such an overblown topic.

a receiver coming off of their rookie deal looking to establish as much value as they possibly can? Sure, they don’t wanna choose the ravens in FA. But a 32 year old who is legit one of the greatest receivers of all time and has no rings under his belt, and gets traded here? Before training camp is finished Julio would be all in on the ravens. Getting them to commit to a deal on the open market has been troubling, this isn’t what we’re trying to do. There’s a difference between a FA looking for a prove it deal thinking Baltimore is too risky, and a player who is already here and in the midst of whatever run we’re trying to go on. If Julio complained about 6 targets a game instead of 8 at his age, and were winning, I’d be shocked.

 

[rmcjacket23]

The thing about it is that the big contract is the exact reason the Falcons would want to trade him, like I get that there’s obstacles, but in this scenario the Falcons may want to get this done as badly if not more than the ravens, they want the return, they want to clear the cap.

Understanding the cap constraints they have, but for me, why do you want the cap space in June? What are you going to do with it? Sign a bunch of cheap veterans on a team that would have the appeal of "rebuilding" (I don't think they are, but that would be partial perception)?

I think a Julio trades makes a TON of sense prior to the 2022 season. If you look at 2022 for them... they're royally screwed with the cap currently. They have $186M in contracts with ONLY 22 players on the roster. Matt Ryan is scheduled to count $48.6M against the 2022 cap, and his dead money is $40M.

Like you can trade him post June 1 and still get that cap savings for 2022, but its just the kind of thing where like getting it for 2021 doesn't really give them much in the way of improving their football team. Good chance all they'd do is rollover a lot of it into 2022, which nets you the same outcome.

IF they can get picks in the 2021 draft and use them, I'd be 100% on board with trading him if I were Atlanta. If I'm moving him after June for very little, if any, 2021 impact, I'm passing on the deal. Even if they select a QB at #4 (which I don't think they're going to), he ain't playing this year, and if I were them, I'd take Pitts, load up on defense, and try to make a run at being good for another 2-3 years with Ryan. That's what I would do.

 

[rmcjacket23]

Yeah but he's never had to worry about being the diva because he's averaged 132 targets a year since he entered the league. That includes his injury shortened years.
Probably a mute point since this isn't a Ravens type of trade, but if we did, is have concerns with his fit in a run-heavy offense.


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If he doesn't have a no-trade clause, it's likely moot. He gets traded to wherever Atlanta sends him. Only option he has it to not show up, but then he'll get fined a ton and forfeit some of his enormous salary. And if there's one thing we know about Julio... he's all about that $. Guy basically "held out" like his 2nd year into a big contract, because others around him got paid more.

 

[Simba]

The thing about it is that the big contract is the exact reason the Falcons would want to trade him, like I get that there’s obstacles, but in this scenario the Falcons may want to get this done as badly if not more than the ravens, they want the return, they want to clear the cap.

Its not necessarily the year 1 hit that’s the issue here. It’s that there are 3 remaining years for a 32 year old WR. And in order to get that guy, you’re going to have to restructure year 1 to fit him in and kick guaranteed money down the line to when he’s 35. It’s not a big contract in terms of the AAV but it’s a big contract in terms of length to acquire and manage.

 

[JoeyFlex5]

Understanding the cap constraints they have, but for me, why do you want the cap space in June? What are you going to do with it? Sign a bunch of cheap veterans on a team that would have the appeal of "rebuilding" (I don't think they are, but that would be partial perception)?

I think a Julio trades makes a TON of sense prior to the 2022 season. If you look at 2022 for them... they're royally screwed with the cap currently. They have $186M in contracts with ONLY 22 players on the roster. Matt Ryan is scheduled to count $48.6M against the 2022 cap, and his dead money is $40M.

Like you can trade him post June 1 and still get that cap savings for 2022, but its just the kind of thing where like getting it for 2021 doesn't really give them much in the way of improving their football team. Good chance all they'd do is rollover a lot of it into 2022, which nets you the same outcome.

IF they can get picks in the 2021 draft and use them, I'd be 100% on board with trading him if I were Atlanta. If I'm moving him after June for very little, if any, 2021 impact, I'm passing on the deal. Even if they select a QB at #4 (which I don't think they're going to), he ain't playing this year, and if I were them, I'd take Pitts, load up on defense, and try to make a run at being good for another 2-3 years with Ryan. That's what I would do.

Proactively going after draft currency really

 

[JoeyFlex5]

Its not necessarily the year 1 hit that’s the issue here. It’s that there are 3 remaining years for a 32 year old WR. And in order to get that guy, you’re going to have to restructure year 1 to fit him in and kick guaranteed money down the line to when he’s 35. It’s not a big contract in terms of the AAV but it’s a big contract in terms of length to acquire and manage.

Well, if we aren’t feeling the other options at wr and we aren’t happy with our wr room, what choice do you have?

we could be patient and run the risk of finding literally nobody to add. Maybe we just go another year with a weak wr room and we build up elsewhere, maybe we know we have a better shot at it next year? Idk, but if you aren’t happy with your wr room after the draft, and you think it’s a pressing issue, it might be a necessary burden. And I’d be disappointed in the FO if they don’t see it as a necessary burden, barring them coming away from the draft with a legitimately promising prospect, like a Bateman, Marshall, toney, Moore, hell even a nico Collins level player would satisfy me, but the value has to be there and the guy has to be available for us to draft them, neither of those are guaranteed

also keep in mind that the Falcons have been the most injured team in the league for years, they’re the new chargers, and the ravens have been, well i don’t even wanna say it because jinx, but yeah. Maybe less mileage and a better staff extends his career a bit to the point that he’s still playing well at the end of his deal.

 

[Simba]

Well, if we aren’t feeling the other options at wr and we aren’t happy with our wr room, what choice do you have?

we could be patient and run the risk of finding literally nobody to add. Maybe we just go another year with a weak wr room and we build up elsewhere, maybe we know we have a better shot at it next year? Idk, but if you aren’t happy with your wr room after the draft, and you think it’s a pressing issue, it might be a necessary burden. And I’d be disappointed in the FO if they don’t see it as a necessary burden, barring them coming away from the draft with a legitimately promising prospect, like a Bateman, Marshall, toney, Moore, hell even a nico Collins level player would satisfy me, but the value has to be there and the guy has to be available for us to draft them, neither of those are guaranteed

also keep in mind that the Falcons have been the most injured team in the league for years, they’re the new chargers, and the ravens have been, well i don’t even wanna say it because jinx, but yeah. Maybe less mileage and a better staff extends his career a bit to the point that he’s still playing well at the end of his deal.

Oh I totally get it. Just speaking from a contract standpoint and why it’s a “big” one that’s not necessarily easy to absorb. It’s absolutely doable but there are certainly barriers and other considerations. I mean, 3/$39M for Julio is a bargain compared to what guys get on the FA market. Just a trickier situation with all of the intricacies at play.

 

[Adreme]

Understanding the cap constraints they have, but for me, why do you want the cap space in June? What are you going to do with it? Sign a bunch of cheap veterans on a team that would have the appeal of "rebuilding" (I don't think they are, but that would be partial perception)?

I think a Julio trades makes a TON of sense prior to the 2022 season. If you look at 2022 for them... they're royally screwed with the cap currently. They have $186M in contracts with ONLY 22 players on the roster. Matt Ryan is scheduled to count $48.6M against the 2022 cap, and his dead money is $40M.

Like you can trade him post June 1 and still get that cap savings for 2022, but its just the kind of thing where like getting it for 2021 doesn't really give them much in the way of improving their football team. Good chance all they'd do is rollover a lot of it into 2022, which nets you the same outcome.

IF they can get picks in the 2021 draft and use them, I'd be 100% on board with trading him if I were Atlanta. If I'm moving him after June for very little, if any, 2021 impact, I'm passing on the deal. Even if they select a QB at #4 (which I don't think they're going to), he ain't playing this year, and if I were them, I'd take Pitts, load up on defense, and try to make a run at being good for another 2-3 years with Ryan. That's what I would do.

They sort of need to be able to rollover that 15m salary in savings into 2022 because they really need it.

I think most people, though I do not think teams do this, look at cap savings wrong. They look at it purely on a year-to-year basis and see numbers moving on a purely year-to-year basis. Sticking with Atlanta I can use another example with a player who will not get cut in Matt Ryan. Matt Ryan has a 48 million dollar cap hit next year and cutting him only saves 8 on its face. BUT if you think of it in terms of money you have to pay out cutting him saves 24 in cap space as you will not have to pay that out but the bonus always has to be payed out, it is just a matter of when.

Now 24m for a starting QB for a year is absolutely worth it so he will be their starter next year, but that is in my eyes a more accurate way of looking at the cap. For Julio this means if they trade him they save the 15m that they need desperately for next years cap. They only have 33m over the next 2 years with which to build a team with people they are going to need to pay.

 

[Adreme]

Its not necessarily the year 1 hit that’s the issue here. It’s that there are 3 remaining years for a 32 year old WR. And in order to get that guy, you’re going to have to restructure year 1 to fit him in and kick guaranteed money down the line to when he’s 35. It’s not a big contract in terms of the AAV but it’s a big contract in terms of length to acquire and manage.

Ya but it is basically 3 years 40 million. He is basically getting market value for an above-average WR.

 

[Simba]

Ya but it is basically 3 years 40 million. He is basically getting market value for an above-average WR.

I don’t disagree with that and touched on that on another post above. The issue is more that a team would need to find a way to absorb that now after they had already made some plans for both this year and the future. The money may not be big in the grand scheme of things, but it’s still difficult to just take on at this juncture, especially since you’d need to restructure it immediately. You can get some big savings but you’d be forced to push a decent sized chunk down the line. Doable? Absolutely. Best move? That’s what the cap nerds in the FO are for.

 

[rmcjacket23]

They sort of need to be able to rollover that 15m salary in savings into 2022 because they really need it.

I think most people, though I do not think teams do this, look at cap savings wrong. They look at it purely on a year-to-year basis and see numbers moving on a purely year-to-year basis. Sticking with Atlanta I can use another example with a player who will not get cut in Matt Ryan. Matt Ryan has a 48 million dollar cap hit next year and cutting him only saves 8 on its face. BUT if you think of it in terms of money you have to pay out cutting him saves 24 in cap space as you will not have to pay that out but the bonus always has to be payed out, it is just a matter of when.

Now 24m for a starting QB for a year is absolutely worth it so he will be their starter next year, but that is in my eyes a more accurate way of looking at the cap. For Julio this means if they trade him they save the 15m that they need desperately for next years cap. They only have 33m over the next 2 years with which to build a team with people they are going to need to pay.

I mean there's two ways teams look at this... cap spend vs cash spend.

Cap spend is, in some ways, fictional. Like its a made up budget for the league. Its important, and teams have to adhere to it, but its not "real" in terms of money. It doesn't impact the profitability of a business.

Teams cut or trade players all the time for little or no cap savings, purely because it costs the business (i.e. cash) too much to keep them.

With Ryan, lets say they draft a QB this year. Obviously, they basically can't move Matt Ryan this year.
But in 2022, he's owed almost $24M in cash (between salaries and bonuses). I seriously doubt any owner is going to be willing to pay Matt Ryan $24M after they used the #4 overall pick on a QB. So they'll move on from him one way or another. It'll just depend on timing and how they can maneuver the cap to make it work. They may end up cutting him entirely and taking a $40M dead money cap hit, with only the $8M in savings. But if that's their only option, it wouldn't be surprising. And again... a lot of that dead money hit the business in prior years. For the profitability of the business, that's just a straight $24M in cash savings. Very material to an NFL franchise.

I agree Atlanta could use the cap space for next year, but there's also cap savings to be had for next year if they move Julio next year as opposed to this year. However, his trade value would likely be higher this year, which is probably the main motivator.

Ultimately, it kind of just depends on what Atlanta's "vision" for the next 2-3 years is. If you think you can become a contender, trading away good players probably doesn't make sense. Draft as well as you can and plug holes as cheaply as you can. If they think the time is "now" to start the beginning of the end of the Ryan/Julio era, then moving one this year and moving one next makes all the sense in the world.

I don't know how they have QBs in this draft valued or who they like/don't like. They're going to miss out on 3 of them, so it just depends on what's available. I would personally think any team would be happy to have Justin Fields, but it appears plenty disagree.

 

[JoeyFlex5]

Oh I totally get it. Just speaking from a contract standpoint and why it’s a “big” one that’s not necessarily easy to absorb. It’s absolutely doable but there are certainly barriers and other considerations. I mean, 3/$39M for Julio is a bargain compared to what guys get on the FA market. Just a trickier situation with all of the intricacies at play.

Oh I don’t disagree at all that it’s tricky, I’m just saying that I wouldn’t put it past our guys and the Falcons to get it done. I think the Falcons are drafting a qb tonight and they’re ready to start clearing out and building up draft picks

 

[Simba]

Oh I don’t disagree at all that it’s tricky, I’m just saying that I wouldn’t put it past our guys and the Falcons to get it done. I think the Falcons are drafting a qb tonight and they’re ready to start clearing out and building up draft picks

That’s what has me most curious at this point. I know they’re probably enamored by Pitts (as they should be) but they need to pick a direction. If you’re going to roll with your 36 year old QB, you kind of signal that you’re going to make one last attempt to go for it, and trading away one of your best players doesn’t make sense. If they do go QB, you’re obviously building for the future and maximizing Julio’s trade value at 32 years old as opposed to 33 makes more sense. Only thing that really changes this thought process is if they want to build for the future but just don’t like the available QBs. And obviously we aren’t going to know if that’s the case or not should they pass on them.

 

[rmcjacket23]

That’s what has me most curious at this point. I know they’re probably enamored by Pitts (as they should be) but they need to pick a direction. If you’re going to roll with your 36 year old QB, you kind of signal that you’re going to make one last attempt to go for it, and trading away one of your best players doesn’t make sense. If they do go QB, you’re obviously building for the future and maximizing Julio’s trade value at 32 years old as opposed to 33 makes more sense. Only thing that really changes this thought process is if they want to build for the future but just don’t like the available QBs. And obviously we aren’t going to know if that’s the case or not should they pass on them.

I think the always important question is... how much do you like the QBs that will be available? Assuming Jones goes at #3 (I have no idea), its Fields or Lance. Are they in love with either of those guys? No clue. If they're not, I'm not taking one. If they are, pull the trigger. Lance would figure to be more of the "project" player who would fit the mold of somebody who could easily use a year as a backup in the NFL. Fields I think would be much more Pro-ready and I think it's a bit of a waste to have him sit for a year, but neither is like super detrimental.

Also, new HC there in Art Smith. I don't know what he wants to do. I would think Matt Ryan projects as the kind of QB who could run his offense very well, and I think adding Pitts to that offense would make them super explosive from a pass-game standpoint. The problem, beyond the cap needs, is they're so bad on defense and need so much help in other places. Oline probably isn't a weakness, but I wouldn't call it a stretch either, and they sucked badly at running the football. They need help in a LOT of phases to improve that roster, which makes a tear down more appealing. It's just a 2-3 year teardown, realistically.

 

[Simba]

I think the always important question is... how much do you like the QBs that will be available? Assuming Jones goes at #3 (I have no idea), its Fields or Lance. Are they in love with either of those guys? No clue. If they're not, I'm not taking one. If they are, pull the trigger. Lance would figure to be more of the "project" player who would fit the mold of somebody who could easily use a year as a backup in the NFL. Fields I think would be much more Pro-ready and I think it's a bit of a waste to have him sit for a year, but neither is like super detrimental.

Also, new HC there in Art Smith. I don't know what he wants to do. I would think Matt Ryan projects as the kind of QB who could run his offense very well, and I think adding Pitts to that offense would make them super explosive from a pass-game standpoint. The problem, beyond the cap needs, is they're so bad on defense and need so much help in other places. Oline probably isn't a weakness, but I wouldn't call it a stretch either, and they sucked badly at running the football. They need help in a LOT of phases to improve that roster, which makes a tear down more appealing. It's just a 2-3 year teardown, realistically.

Agreed. I don’t think they’re in a “go for it” situation here. Not enough talent on that roster right now to do so. But you know how big headed some people can get. I know Fontenot has a great reputation though so hopefully for the Falcons sake, he doesn’t get into that weird limbo mode where you’re trying to win but obviously just don’t have the pieces to do it.

 

[rmcjacket23]

Agreed. I don’t think they’re in a “go for it” situation here. Not enough talent on that roster right now to do so. But you know how big headed some people can get. I know Fontenot has a great reputation though so hopefully for the Falcons sake, he doesn’t get into that weird limbo mode where you’re trying to win but obviously just don’t have the pieces to do it.

So I'll defend them in this regard... they were probably one of the better 4-12 teams I'd ever seen. I mean I don't know the context of all of the games, but they had 8 one possession losses, which is pretty hard to do for a 4-12 team. I think they've got a good bit of talent in a lot of places, it's just so many of them are on offense AND they're so highly paid.

I think they got a little bit of "unlucky" in the sense that this is, what I perceive to be, a top-heavy offensive draft. Like you're probably talking 80% or more of the top half of the draft may be offensive players, when you factor in 4-5 QBs, 3 WRs, and probably 2-3 Olineman. Normally, they could get like an elite interior or edge rusher at this spot, but this draft doesn't really have one. Corner would probably be one of their bigger positions of need, but actually seems like that's a "reach" at #4, given that you are guaranteed to get the "best" non-QB in the draft at that spot.

Granted, they have picks to address defense, and that's probably what I'd do. If it were me, I'd be pushing to trade back and see if I can get more picks.

 

[Simba]

So I'll defend them in this regard... they were probably one of the better 4-12 teams I'd ever seen. I mean I don't know the context of all of the games, but they had 8 one possession losses, which is pretty hard to do for a 4-12 team. I think they've got a good bit of talent in a lot of places, it's just so many of them are on offense AND they're so highly paid.

I think they got a little bit of "unlucky" in the sense that this is, what I perceive to be, a top-heavy offensive draft. Like you're probably talking 80% or more of the top half of the draft may be offensive players, when you factor in 4-5 QBs, 3 WRs, and probably 2-3 Olineman. Normally, they could get like an elite interior or edge rusher at this spot, but this draft doesn't really have one. Corner would probably be one of their bigger positions of need, but actually seems like that's a "reach" at #4, given that you are guaranteed to get the "best" non-QB in the draft at that spot.

Granted, they have picks to address defense, and that's probably what I'd do. If it were me, I'd be pushing to trade back and see if I can get more picks.

They’re in a weird purgatory state where you know they have the right talent to be better than they were, but probably not enough talent to be a legit threat. And one draft isn’t enough to push them toward the legit threat side.

 

[rossihunter2]

Understanding the cap constraints they have, but for me, why do you want the cap space in June? What are you going to do with it? Sign a bunch of cheap veterans on a team that would have the appeal of "rebuilding" (I don't think they are, but that would be partial perception)?

I think a Julio trades makes a TON of sense prior to the 2022 season. If you look at 2022 for them... they're royally screwed with the cap currently. They have $186M in contracts with ONLY 22 players on the roster. Matt Ryan is scheduled to count $48.6M against the 2022 cap, and his dead money is $40M.

Like you can trade him post June 1 and still get that cap savings for 2022, but its just the kind of thing where like getting it for 2021 doesn't really give them much in the way of improving their football team. Good chance all they'd do is rollover a lot of it into 2022, which nets you the same outcome.

IF they can get picks in the 2021 draft and use them, I'd be 100% on board with trading him if I were Atlanta. If I'm moving him after June for very little, if any, 2021 impact, I'm passing on the deal. Even if they select a QB at #4 (which I don't think they're going to), he ain't playing this year, and if I were them, I'd take Pitts, load up on defense, and try to make a run at being good for another 2-3 years with Ryan. That's what I would do.

for the falcons it's not just about this year but about 2022 as well - they only have 20 players under contract for 2022 right now and despite that they're in the bottom half of the league in cap space despite being in a rebuild

they need picks in 2022 and they need cap for 2022...
a post-june trade does help them because it means they don't have to pay all that cap hit in 1 salary cap year