Signings, Cuts, Trades

[Grim]

True on Smith, but then again, his guaranteed money was very small ($20M, none after the first year). The question is whether a team paying Judon will be willing to go quite a bit higher in guaranteed money than ZaDarius got. My suspicion is yes.

Dee Ford got $33M guaranteed, and Clark got a whopping $62M guaranteed. I think Judon will have no issue at all getting $35-40M guaranteed from somebody. Frankly, I think the Dee Ford contract, with a bit more guaranteed money and possibly a slightly higher AAV, is probably where Judon is going to slot in.

And in a trade, yes, I think they'd we'd ask for at least a 2nd round pick in return. If we took that deal to the Jets for Jamal Adams, my guess is they'd want at least a 3rd back from us.

I do tend to agree with the premise that we often overvalue our own players on the market, but in this case, Judon is easily a top 3-5 open market guy when it comes to outside edge rushers, given that some of the bigger names, like Clowney, Barrett, etc. aren't likely to get that far.

Agreed. I suspect it’s very possible that Judon could be the #1 pass rusher depending on what happens with Clowney. I’ve heard nothing that makes me think Barrett & Ngakoue hit the open market. Clowney is his only real competition if that’s the case

 

[RavensMania]

Agreed. I suspect it’s very possible that Judon could be the #1 pass rusher depending on what happens with Clowney. I’ve heard nothing that makes me think Barrett & Ngakoue hit the open market. Clowney is his only real competition if that’s the case

Although it's quite possible Ngakoue doesn't want to be in Jacksonville, I believe they would tag him if he didn't sign a contract. No way Barrett hits free agency after they have said they plan on signing him, so i agree Judon could be the number one Edge player left

 

[rossihunter2]

I think we’re vastly overrating teams interest in Judon lol. That would likely still call for either a 1 or 2.

plus doesn’t Judon have to sign the tag? That’s definitely not a given. Judon has made himself very clear that he wants to get everything he can from FA, if he feels he’s being screwed over by the ravens I can definitely see him sitting out.

plus I don’t think the ravens want to do that, robbing a player of their free will in FA is just really out of character for this organization and it’s not really a good look. I think the most we could get for Judon in a trade honestly is a 3, and at that point it’s not even worth the drama or the risk.

in a tag and trade scenario it would be in judon's interest to sign the tag as long as the team he's going to isnt somewhere he doesnt want to play because the team that trades for him will likely be giving him a long-term deal

and teams always want edge rushers - look at what guys like frank clark and dee ford got on the trade market - he's gonna get similar money on the open market to those guys (probably more) so id be surprised if there wasnt significant interest if teams knew he was on the block

but as you say that's not the ravens MO - i think the only way this happens is if we tag Judon because we want to negotiate a long-term deal but its clear that we wont be able to come to terms and there's a threat judon holds out or something like that so we explore other options to get as much as we can

but im not worried about judon not signing the tag if there's a trade on the cards

 

[rmcjacket23]

in a tag and trade scenario it would be in judon's interest to sign the tag as long as the team he's going to isnt somewhere he doesnt want to play because the team that trades for him will likely be giving him a long-term deal

and teams always want edge rushers - look at what guys like frank clark and dee ford got on the trade market - he's gonna get similar money on the open market to those guys (probably more) so id be surprised if there wasnt significant interest if teams knew he was on the block

but as you say that's not the ravens MO - i think the only way this happens is if we tag Judon because we want to negotiate a long-term deal but its clear that we wont be able to come to terms and there's a threat judon holds out or something like that so we explore other options to get as much as we can

but im not worried about judon not signing the tag if there's a trade on the cards

Largely agree here.
I don't think the risk of him not signing the tag will be there, because ultimately, I think any team that's going to do that trade is already negotiating with his agent on a long term deal. Meaning it's just a question of when the Jets would lock up Judon long term, as opposed to if.

In my opinion, the risks associated with this sort of concept are too high in my opinion. For starters, if you're going to do it, there's two things that you have to be certain of:
1. That you already have a trade candidate in place before you apply the tag, and that you're extremely confident the trade will go through. OR...
2. You're content with him playing on the tag.

Because the reality is... the moment you slap the tag on him, that's $16-17M in cap space that can't be spent until the trade is completed. The trade could take days, or it could take weeks or months. The Chiefs traded Ford to the 49ers within two weeks, which was a pretty quick turnaround. Seattle had to carry Frank Clark on the tag for nearly two months before they dealt him to the Chiefs.

In my opinion, you can't tag Judon unless you're willing to pay him the tag to play here this year. If you are content with that, and want to explore trades, so be it. But this idea that you can tag him and then rescind the tag if you don't find a trade partner is a disaster decision in my opinion. Why? Because you're probably not pulling the tag until May. And in May, who's left to sign, unless you're just using the money to extend your own players.

There's a TON of risk here, because the tag is costly. It'll easily eat up 40% or more of the teams available cap space. Ultimately, if this gets done, it gets done early. Within the first week or so of FA.

 

[rossihunter2]

Largely agree here.
I don't think the risk of him not signing the tag will be there, because ultimately, I think any team that's going to do that trade is already negotiating with his agent on a long term deal. Meaning it's just a question of when the Jets would lock up Judon long term, as opposed to if.

In my opinion, the risks associated with this sort of concept are too high in my opinion. For starters, if you're going to do it, there's two things that you have to be certain of:
1. That you already have a trade candidate in place before you apply the tag, and that you're extremely confident the trade will go through. OR...
2. You're content with him playing on the tag.

Because the reality is... the moment you slap the tag on him, that's $16-17M in cap space that can't be spent until the trade is completed. The trade could take days, or it could take weeks or months. The Chiefs traded Ford to the 49ers within two weeks, which was a pretty quick turnaround. Seattle had to carry Frank Clark on the tag for nearly two months before they dealt him to the Chiefs.

In my opinion, you can't tag Judon unless you're willing to pay him the tag to play here this year. If you are content with that, and want to explore trades, so be it. But this idea that you can tag him and then rescind the tag if you don't find a trade partner is a disaster decision in my opinion. Why? Because you're probably not pulling the tag until May. And in May, who's left to sign, unless you're just using the money to extend your own players.

There's a TON of risk here, because the tag is costly. It'll easily eat up 40% or more of the teams available cap space. Ultimately, if this gets done, it gets done early. Within the first week or so of FA.

yeah and ive said that in earlier posts that im still not entirely comfortable with this as an idea (also doesnt really fit the way the ravens historically have treated guys) - as you say the risk of tagging him is that it sets the minimum value of his future contract straight away - and while he probably ends up with more than the tag price anyway it still puts the team in a negotiating bind

and i think if at trade happens it's happening pre-free-agency even opens - EDC clearly likes to be efficient with these sorts of deals - look how quickly he dealt flacco last offseason

that being said i still think it's kind of unlikely that this will be an overt strategy - i think if we tag judon it will be with the expectation that we attempt to sign him long-term (not sure id love that idea but that's the reason id see us reasonably tagging judon) but then also have the option to trade should negotiations not go anywhere/judon refuses to sign the tag

 

[JAAM]

In a tag and swap, it should take Judon obviously, Chuck and probably a 3rd for Jamal and a late round pick, but how often does this even happen in the NFL?

 

[Deebo813]

In a tag and swap, it should take Judon obviously, Chuck and probably a 3rd for Jamal and a late round pick, but how often does this even happen in the NFL?

Imo this would be a great trade only if we didnt have other needs. Even if we keep judon, we still need another rusher. Gonna be dang near impossible to find two decent rushers in draft that can contribute right away

 

[rossihunter2]

In a tag and swap, it should take Judon obviously, Chuck and probably a 3rd for Jamal and a late round pick, but how often does this even happen in the NFL?

i just dont know that i even buy the interest in jamal adams because of the cost - feels a lot like the jalen ramsey rumours where we were interested in the position but not the player

i just cant rationalise this front office being willing to spend the required draft capital (and money) for jamal adams on top of everything else we already invested in the secondary

then again its also important to note that the interest in adams came well before chuck clark truly established himself - i would find it pretty far-fetched for us to go after adams now given that it would preclude us from bringing in help at positions where we truly need help

dont get me wrong he would improve this team - but in terms of improvement vs investment i think it would be a bad deal because of the inevitable price - not sure the jets would be interested either

 

[Grim]

i just dont know that i even buy the interest in jamal adams because of the cost - feels a lot like the jalen ramsey rumours where we were interested in the position but not the player

i just cant rationalise this front office being willing to spend the required draft capital (and money) for jamal adams on top of everything else we already invested in the secondary

then again its also important to note that the interest in adams came well before chuck clark truly established himself - i would find it pretty far-fetched for us to go after adams now given that it would preclude us from bringing in help at positions where we truly need help

dont get me wrong he would improve this team - but in terms of improvement vs investment i think it would be a bad deal because of the inevitable price - not sure the jets would be interested either

I’m not sure if Clark really precludes us from trading for Adams. If anything he would just add to the depth and we would likely run more 3 S sets. It even wouldn’t be a terrible addition considering how bad I think Earl Thomas was in run defense this year. He wasn’t terrible but he showed some really bad angles more than a couple times. He was great in pass coverage for the most part, but having all three wouldn’t be a problem. We’d find a way and Wink likes to blitz the DB, so that would disguise the blitz more to have 3 capable guys back there. If your LB are weak then it isn’t all that terrible.

I would prefer not to have a continued weakness at edge or LB though.

 

[rossihunter2]

I’m not sure if Clark really precludes us from trading for Adams. If anything he would just add to the depth and we would likely run more 3 S sets. It even wouldn’t be a terrible addition considering how bad I think Earl Thomas was in run defense this year. He wasn’t terrible but he showed some really bad angles more than a couple times. He was great in pass coverage for the most part, but having all three wouldn’t be a problem. We’d find a way and Wink likes to blitz the DB, so that would disguise the blitz more to have 3 capable guys back there. If your LB are weak then it isn’t all that terrible.

I would prefer not to have a continued weakness at edge or LB though.

i mean clark precludes us from getting adams because of the investment elsewhere on the backend
my only real objection to us getting adams is the opportunity cost of not being able to add players at other positions (because of the draft picks it'll cost - it would also mean that this is the last year chuck plays for us)

i guess it all depends on the compensation - not sure why the jets would want judon over adams though - albeit they have needed/wanted an EDGE in ages

 

[Grim]

i mean clark precludes us from getting adams because of the investment elsewhere on the backend
my only real objection to us getting adams is the opportunity cost of not being able to add players at other positions (because of the draft picks it'll cost - it would also mean that this is the last year chuck plays for us)

i guess it all depends on the compensation - not sure why the jets would want judon over adams though - albeit they have needed/wanted an EDGE in ages

I’m not a fan of trading away Clark either tbh. I like Adams a lot and would love to get him but I’m not sure I like the idea of losing Clark to get Adams if it came to that. I’ll say that scenario seems fan-driven to me. I’m not sure the Jets would want Clark at all. Judon makes sense for them and we’ve dealt players to them recently so there is history.

 

[rmcjacket23]

yeah and ive said that in earlier posts that im still not entirely comfortable with this as an idea (also doesnt really fit the way the ravens historically have treated guys) - as you say the risk of tagging him is that it sets the minimum value of his future contract straight away - and while he probably ends up with more than the tag price anyway it still puts the team in a negotiating bind

and i think if at trade happens it's happening pre-free-agency even opens - EDC clearly likes to be efficient with these sorts of deals - look how quickly he dealt flacco last offseason

that being said i still think it's kind of unlikely that this will be an overt strategy - i think if we tag judon it will be with the expectation that we attempt to sign him long-term (not sure id love that idea but that's the reason id see us reasonably tagging judon) but then also have the option to trade should negotiations not go anywhere/judon refuses to sign the tag

Agreed.
Keep in mind also that the window for franchise tags is February 25th-March 10th, and the tampering period opens on March 16th. So the window to tag and find a trade suitor prior to FA actually opening is basically three weeks. Not a lot of time in my estimation.

 

[rmcjacket23]

I’m not a fan of trading away Clark either tbh. I like Adams a lot and would love to get him but I’m not sure I like the idea of losing Clark to get Adams if it came to that. I’ll say that scenario seems fan-driven to me. I’m not sure the Jets would want Clark at all. Judon makes sense for them and we’ve dealt players to them recently so there is history.

I see no scenario where the Ravens trade Clark in a deal for Adams. It'll be for Judon + draft picks or just draft picks, if at all.

I agree that the idea of trading away Clark to get Adams makes no sense.

 

[rmcjacket23]

i mean clark precludes us from getting adams because of the investment elsewhere on the backend
my only real objection to us getting adams is the opportunity cost of not being able to add players at other positions (because of the draft picks it'll cost - it would also mean that this is the last year chuck plays for us)

i guess it all depends on the compensation - not sure why the jets would want judon over adams though - albeit they have needed/wanted an EDGE in ages

Only reason I'd think they'd shop Adams (and take Judon) is because they may feel like they've burned the bridge with Adams. He was clearly frustrated with the organization last year, and seems unlikely to sign a long term deal there. Granted, they still control his rights for at least two more years, so that could change. But if they don't think he'll commit long term, 2020 is the best year to try and trade him for value.

 

[rossihunter2]

Agreed.
Keep in mind also that the window for franchise tags is February 25th-March 10th, and the tampering period opens on March 16th. So the window to tag and find a trade suitor prior to FA actually opening is basically three weeks. Not a lot of time in my estimation.

that's 3 weeks though where outside of the combine, the league isnt allowed to contact players or agents from other teams (and the combine is sneaky too) - so while its not a lot of time, it's also a massive period of time where he'd be one of the few available players before the league year begins and that availability might be enough to spur a deal happen

think about how quickly free agent deals start getting announced during the tampering period - 3 weeks isnt a barrier to getting a deal done if there's willing partners

 

[rossihunter2]

Only reason I'd think they'd shop Adams (and take Judon) is because they may feel like they've burned the bridge with Adams. He was clearly frustrated with the organization last year, and seems unlikely to sign a long term deal there. Granted, they still control his rights for at least two more years, so that could change. But if they don't think he'll commit long term, 2020 is the best year to try and trade him for value.

if he was going into his 5th year and not his 4th year id be more convinced of their amenability to dealing him - but they've got 2 years of control and who knows if the coaching staff that he supposedly doesnt get on with will even be their for his 5th year - there was a chance that staff could have been 1 and done this year

 

[RavensMania]

that's 3 weeks though where outside of the combine, the league isnt allowed to contact players or agents from other teams (and the combine is sneaky too) - so while its not a lot of time, it's also a massive period of time where he'd be one of the few available players before the league year begins and that availability might be enough to spur a deal happen

think about how quickly free agent deals start getting announced during the tampering period - 3 weeks isnt a barrier to getting a deal done if there's willing partners

I totally agree, 3 weeks is more than enough time to get a deal done. Hell it will more than likely be completed before the tampering period has begun.

 

[rossihunter2]

I totally agree, 3 weeks is more than enough time to get a deal done. Hell it will more than likely be completed before the tampering period has begun.

if that's the road we're going down

 

[Grim]

I see no scenario where the Ravens trade Clark in a deal for Adams. It'll be for Judon + draft picks or just draft picks, if at all.

I agree that the idea of trading away Clark to get Adams makes no sense.

Exactly. I don’t think either team would be interested in moving Clark. I think Judon for Adams and a pick or two makes more sense.

that's 3 weeks though where outside of the combine, the league isnt allowed to contact players or agents from other teams (and the combine is sneaky too) - so while its not a lot of time, it's also a massive period of time where he'd be one of the few available players before the league year begins and that availability might be enough to spur a deal happen

think about how quickly free agent deals start getting announced during the tampering period - 3 weeks isnt a barrier to getting a deal done if there's willing partners

It will be interesting to see what happens in that window for sure. I expect movement and steam to pick up—if legitimate—at the coming Combine.

if he was going into his 5th year and not his 4th year id be more convinced of their amenability to dealing him - but they've got 2 years of control and who knows if the coaching staff that he supposedly doesnt get on with will even be their for his 5th year - there was a chance that staff could have been 1 and done this year

Regarding the coaching staff and any problems, I think it may or may not matter. I’m not sure how much Douglas and Gase are tied together, but it does seem like Gase has a bit of power in NY. Anything can happen, though, so maybe it does play a role.

 

[rmcjacket23]

if he was going into his 5th year and not his 4th year id be more convinced of their amenability to dealing him - but they've got 2 years of control and who knows if the coaching staff that he supposedly doesnt get on with will even be their for his 5th year - there was a chance that staff could have been 1 and done this year

True, but his value on the trade market will be a bit lower in 2021 compared to 2020. If you trade for him next year, you're paying the 5th year option, which will at least be in the $10-11M range (not 100% sure what anticipated price is). While Adams could probably get $15-16M on the open market, paying him $10-12M isn't that big of a bargain.

The bargain would be trading for him now and paying him chump change, which is what he is due this year.

Entirely possible they wait or don't trade him at all, but in my opinion, his trade value doesn't get any higher than it would be right now.