The Random Thought Thread

[UPennChem]

it's taken significant investment to achieve the depth we have at WR, IOL and CB and we've actually invested a significant amount of money and draft capital in TE recently also

id love to improve that TE3 spot for sure - but i dont want to have to spend anything on that position to find that player because there's very little likely value in that player

I haven't started my college film watching, but you don't think it's possible to find a quality TE3 somewhere in the 4th round? Didn't we get Andrews in the 3rd round? I know it's a top heavy position, but there's gotta be depth somewhere behind the top surely right??

 

[Simba]

Yeah in my other post I mentioned something like a 4th round pick. All I'm looking for is someone who of they had to play the entire season as receiving TE1 could get 500 or 600 yards, not Andrews 1200. I legitimately believe Oliver could not do it.

I'm not a believer in Oliver either but he's a former 3rd round pick. That's basically the type of guy you get in that range nowadays. TE is so obsolete in college now that the good ones go early and the late rounders that make it are few and far between.

 

[rossihunter2]

I haven't started my college film watching, but you don't think it's possible to find a quality TE3 somewhere in the 4th round? Didn't we get Andrews in the 3rd round? I know it's a top heavy position, but there's gotta be depth somewhere behind the top surely right??

2018 was an incredible year for TEs

2021 was not - it entirely depends on the class

but tough to justify a 4th rounder on someone who in the best case scenario wont play for the entirety of their rookie contract except for a few running downs

and based on preliminary looks - i would say it doesnt seem like a banner year for receiving tight ends

 

[UPennChem]

2018 was an incredible year for TEs

2021 was not - it entirely depends on the class

but tough to justify a 4th rounder on someone who in the best case scenario wont play for the entirety of their rookie contract except for a few running downs

and based on preliminary looks - i would say it doesnt seem like a banner year for receiving tight ends

I understand your perspective entirely.

It's worth just sticking to your board come draft day. Every year people fall for some reason or another.

 

[Davesta]

good perspective on Roman and 2022

it will ultimately somewhat come down to what lamar thinks of roman

well.. Lamar and Hollywood are BFFs.. and Hollywood had problems with GRo in the past on how he doesn’t use his “Souljas.”

Good Bye!

 

[redrum52]

Te isn't the need. If he's our whole passing game that's already part of the problem. We have the wrs to make it happen, now we just need the mind and an OL. The wrs have to be more involved and I just don't see it happening with Roman.

 

[rossihunter2]

I'm not a believer in Oliver either but he's a former 3rd round pick. That's basically the type of guy you get in that range nowadays. TE is so obsolete in college now that the good ones go early and the late rounders that make it are few and far between.

and it's a complete crapshoot - you basically have 2 options - spend a high pick on one of the few guys from the few teams that actually use TEs - or you look at the guys who spend most of their time either blocking or not on the field and scout the traits

just looking at the best receiving TEs in the league:

1. Andrews - 3rd round
2. Kelce - 3rd round
3. Kittle - 5th round
4. Pitts - 1st round top 5 pick
5. Hockenson - 1st round top 10 pick
6. Fant - 1st round
7. Goedert - 2nd round
8. Gesicki - 2nd round
9. Ertz - 2nd round
10. Gronkowski - 2nd round
11. Schultz - 4th round
12. Waller - 6th round (converted from WR)
13. Kmet - 2nd round
14. Conklin - 5th round
15. Knox - 3rd round
16. Henry - 2nd round
17. Njoku - 1st round
18. Engram - 1st round
19. Jonnu Smith - 3rd round
20. Higbee - 4th round
21. Uzomah - 5th round
22. Freiermuth - 2nd round
23. Cook - 3rd round
24. Everett - 2nd round
25. Hooper - 3rd round
26. Irv Smith Jr - 2nd round
27. Hurst - 1st round
28. Ian Thomas - 3rd round
29. Arnold - udfa
30. Howard - 1st round
31. Williams - 2nd round
32. Ebron - 1st round
33. Jarwin - udfa
34. Logan Thomas - 4th round
35. Robert Tonyan - udfa
36. Rudolph - 2nd round
37. Doyle - udfa
38. Alie-Cox - udfa
39. Trautman - 3rd round
40. Akins - 3rd round
41. Herndon - 4th round
42. Brate - udfa

kind of went overboard with how far that list goes but you'll see the general trend that if you want anyone even vaguely useful in the passing game that you've likely got to expend at least a day 2 pick and that's by no means a guarantee with how many early pick TEs bust or underperform - but also how few TEs over-perform their draft spot

 

[Dom McRaven]

Pain.

 

[Michael M.]

stone's an ERFA and Ricard's a fullback so both of those guys are easy

Elliot will be completely down to price (not because of lamar but because we have stephens and stone) and what he gets offered elsewhere - i imagine the ravens will give him an offer but wont be too fussed if he decides to look elsewhere

averett's more complicated and again likely unrelated to lamar - more that it's unlikely we would be paying 4 CBs major 2nd contracts at the same time - so decision about averett will be related to what we decide to do with peters and/or tavon as well as what averett's price is on the market...

none of these decisions really have anything to do with lamar

and bozeman's future deal wont either - the ravens will be willing to pay him a good contract and he will either accept it or find more elsewhere (the ravens historically have always stuck to "right player right price" and rarely go over the number no matter how much cap space they have available)

Thank you, I feel better now! They have to keep Jackson without a doubt. I'm thinking about when they had to pay Flacco- he sucked up all their resources from which they never seemed to recover.

 

[UPennChem]

and it's a complete crapshoot - you basically have 2 options - spend a high pick on one of the few guys from the few teams that actually use TEs - or you look at the guys who spend most of their time either blocking or not on the field and scout the traits

just looking at the best receiving TEs in the league:

1. Andrews - 3rd round
2. Kelce - 3rd round
3. Kittle - 5th round
4. Pitts - 1st round top 5 pick
5. Hockenson - 1st round top 10 pick
6. Fant - 1st round
7. Goedert - 2nd round
8. Gesicki - 2nd round
9. Ertz - 2nd round
10. Gronkowski - 2nd round
11. Schultz - 4th round
12. Waller - 6th round (converted from WR)
13. Kmet - 2nd round
14. Conklin - 5th round
15. Knox - 3rd round
16. Henry - 2nd round
17. Njoku - 1st round
18. Engram - 1st round
19. Jonnu Smith - 3rd round
20. Higbee - 4th round
21. Uzomah - 5th round
22. Freiermuth - 2nd round
23. Cook - 3rd round
24. Everett - 2nd round
25. Hooper - 3rd round
26. Irv Smith Jr - 2nd round
27. Hurst - 1st round
28. Ian Thomas - 3rd round
29. Arnold - udfa
30. Howard - 1st round
31. Williams - 2nd round
32. Ebron - 1st round
33. Jarwin - udfa
34. Logan Thomas - 4th round
35. Robert Tonyan - udfa
36. Rudolph - 2nd round
37. Doyle - udfa
38. Alie-Cox - udfa
39. Trautman - 3rd round
40. Akins - 3rd round
41. Herndon - 4th round
42. Brate - udfa

kind of went overboard with how far that list goes but you'll see the general trend that if you want anyone even vaguely useful in the passing game that you've likely got to expend at least a day 2 pick and that's by no means a guarantee with how many early pick TEs bust or underperform - but also how few TEs over-perform their draft spot

Thanks for doing that!

 

[Simba]

and it's a complete crapshoot - you basically have 2 options - spend a high pick on one of the few guys from the few teams that actually use TEs - or you look at the guys who spend most of their time either blocking or not on the field and scout the traits

just looking at the best receiving TEs in the league:

1. Andrews - 3rd round
2. Kelce - 3rd round
3. Kittle - 5th round
4. Pitts - 1st round top 5 pick
5. Hockenson - 1st round top 10 pick
6. Fant - 1st round
7. Goedert - 2nd round
8. Gesicki - 2nd round
9. Ertz - 2nd round
10. Gronkowski - 2nd round
11. Schultz - 4th round
12. Waller - 6th round (converted from WR)
13. Kmet - 2nd round
14. Conklin - 5th round
15. Knox - 3rd round
16. Henry - 2nd round
17. Njoku - 1st round
18. Engram - 1st round
19. Jonnu Smith - 3rd round
20. Higbee - 4th round
21. Uzomah - 5th round
22. Freiermuth - 2nd round
23. Cook - 3rd round
24. Everett - 2nd round
25. Hooper - 3rd round
26. Irv Smith Jr - 2nd round
27. Hurst - 1st round
28. Ian Thomas - 3rd round
29. Arnold - udfa
30. Howard - 1st round
31. Williams - 2nd round
32. Ebron - 1st round
33. Jarwin - udfa
34. Logan Thomas - 4th round
35. Robert Tonyan - udfa
36. Rudolph - 2nd round
37. Doyle - udfa
38. Alie-Cox - udfa
39. Trautman - 3rd round
40. Akins - 3rd round
41. Herndon - 4th round
42. Brate - udfa

kind of went overboard with how far that list goes but you'll see the general trend that if you want anyone even vaguely useful in the passing game that you've likely got to expend at least a day 2 pick and that's by no means a guarantee with how many early pick TEs bust or underperform - but also how few TEs over-perform their draft spot

Exactly. For every hit you have on one of these pass catching types, there are like 10 or more busts. You can get a TE late that produces but the odds are slim. TE is just so obsolete in college that it becomes much more of a traits based scouting scenario and those are always wishy washy, especially for a position that has to learn so much.

 

[Davesta]

Is pick #12 the highest we could be slotted?

edit: seems like it, according to this thread.

 

[rossihunter2]

Thank you, I feel better now! They have to keep Jackson without a doubt. I'm thinking about when they had to pay Flacco- he sucked up all their resources from which they never seemed to recover.

big problem with flacco was the structure of that contract but also just the amount of dead money we had stuck in other big contracts that we got no value out of: pitta, ray rice, monroe

and some poor drafts compounding with those deals to create very little value

when you pay a QB a ton of money it does make it harder to pay the free agent "middle class" and it puts more pressure on your drafting to compensate for the loss of those veterans

i think you're already seeing that correction and with some pre-planning as well - EDC and the ravens have had it in mind that they need to prepare for Lamar's deal since at least a year ago - and you see that they've started compiling picks every year - and last year they even gave up a 2021 pick to acquire a better one in 2022 - we've already got 10 picks slated for 2022 including at least 4 in the first 2 days and 9 in the first 4 rounds - i imagine that we'll be trading out of at least 1 or 2 of those picks on draft day to acquire even more - that's a lot of youth and talent to add to the roster and we'll have to continue to operate that way

but the reason we'll have to operate that way is so that we can pay the guys we want to pay

 

[rossihunter2]

Is pick #12 the highest we could be slotted?

we can get as high as 12th - but that instantly becomes 13th if the vikings cant come back against the packers (which looks exceedingly unlikely)

15th looks like the most likely outcome to me with 16th as a possible worst case (if we lose)

a saints win moves us up 1 spot
a dolphins win moves us up 1 spot
the browns winning both of the next 2 weeks moves us up 1 spot

each seems to me to be entirely independent of other scenarios so each of those outcomes is equally effective (as long as we lose next week) at moving us higher

if we lose to the steelers it looks like our range is 13th-16th with 15th the most likely outcome and 13th by far the least likely

and if the steelers beat the browns tomorrow night i think 13th becomes impossible (it's already distinctly unlikely) - with the browns already eliminated from the playoffs and the steelers still just about still in the mix... it feels like the browns are unlikely to do us a "favour" and beat the steelers

in terms of conflict of interest between playoff scenarios and higher draft pick scenarios we can root for the jags and raiders to help us get to the playoffs without it affecting our potential for higher draft picks - we can also root for the browns this week and next week (i know yuck) and also the saints next week for a better draft pick without it affecting the playoff bid - the real conflict comes from the pats-dolphins game where a pats win has to happen to have a chance at the playoffs and a dolphins win gets us a spot higher in the draft

 

[Davesta]

we can get as high as 12th - but that instantly becomes 13th if the vikings cant come back against the packers (which looks exceedingly unlikely)

15th looks like the most likely outcome to me with 16th as a possible worst case (if we lose)

a saints win moves us up 1 spot
a dolphins win moves us up 1 spot
the browns winning both of the next 2 weeks moves us up 1 spot

each seems to me to be entirely independent of other scenarios so each of those outcomes is equally effective (as long as we lose next week) at moving us higher

if we lose to the steelers it looks like our range is 13th-16th with 15th the most likely outcome and 13th by far the least likely

and if the steelers beat the browns tomorrow night i think 13th becomes impossible (it's already distinctly unlikely) - with the browns already eliminated from the playoffs and the steelers still just about still in the mix... it feels like the browns are unlikely to do us a "favour" and beat the steelers

very informative! Thanks!

Kyle Hamilton it is! #SIIE

 

[JO_75]

I know it means us losing next week but this hilarious playoff scenario is now one I want to see just because it screws over the Steelers. Someone on reddit posted a playoff scenario where the Chargers & Raiders both making the playoffs IF their game next week ends.... IN A TIE. I even checked the ESPN playoff machine and it can happen.

Chargers & Raiders make the playoffs IF....
1. Steelers Win their final 2 Games
2. Jaguars beat the Colts
3. Chargers-Raiders TIE

I know the NFL will likely put Chargers-Raiders on Saturday Night to prevent this but an entire 70 minutes of kneel downs would be hilarious.

 

[RavensMania]

2018 was an incredible year for TEs

2021 was not - it entirely depends on the class

but tough to justify a 4th rounder on someone who in the best case scenario wont play for the entirety of their rookie contract except for a few running downs

and based on preliminary looks - i would say it doesnt seem like a banner year for receiving tight ends

being inactive every game isn't the way to go. Better to put that towards a bigger priority and one we can develop and can be used as a ST player as well.

 

[rossihunter2]

very informative! Thanks!

Kyle Hamilton it is! #SIIE

just added an edit about conflicts of interest but not that important lol

not watched kyle hamilton yet so not gonna #SIIE him right now

but it definitely looks to me right now like a blue-chip player at a high-priority position is probably going to be there if we pick in the top 15... especially if at least 1 QB goes

 

[rossihunter2]

I know it means us losing next week but this hilarious playoff scenario is now one I want to see just because it screws over the Steelers. Someone on reddit posted a playoff scenario where the Chargers & Raiders both making the playoffs IF their game next week ends.... IN A TIE. I even checked the ESPN playoff machine and it can happen.

Chargers & Raiders make the playoffs IF....
1. Steelers Win their final 2 Games
2. Jaguars beat the Colts
3. Chargers-Raiders TIE

I know the NFL will likely put Chargers-Raiders on Saturday Night to prevent this but an entire 60 minutes of kneel downs would be hilarious.

pats dolphins almost certainly ends up in the sunday night game

 

[D1City55]

Man I'm really happy with how Andrews has developed. This guy is such a stud, 1200 yards and 9 TDs and he'll probably finish with 1300 yards. For a WR alone those are great numbers but for a TE that's just another level type of production, flat out elite. Hollywood I think has flashed a lot of potential elite WR play and I think next year once the run game returns he's going to take his game to another level, it will be hard to play those DBs back with 2 man under against him.

Bateman will be a stud as well, I love his game and in the offseason, he was tearing it up. Missing the pre-season/most of training camp and the first six games of the year has held him back. This guy is the X WR we've been waiting for.

I think the team will address the trenches, they'll surely get a tackle soon and the interior of the OL was solid, the Kevin Zeitler signing was spectacular. I think Bozeman will, unfortunately, be gone but the Ts is where our problem was, a Healthy Stanley and an upgrade at RT changes that.

The defense will be remodeled but if they keep Marcus Peters then I'm cool with the CB depth and we do have Chuck Clarke for another year. They'll probably need a new FS, ILB, DT, and another Edge. They got a tough job ahead of them with not only replacing starters but adding depth. They defense will get a lot of attention this offseason.

I think this team will be on a revenge tour next year. Yeah, the defense won't be elite but they haven't been all that great this year.

Given how competitive this team has been with all the losses, I think we have plenty to look forward to next year.