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The Random Thought Thread
- Thread starter The Greek
- Start date
my criteria for a head coach would be one that has NEVER won the super bowl before. No head coach has ever won with multiple teams. I'd rather have an up and comer, quite honestly.
To be fair that is sort of a misleading statistic as winning a SB buys you a lot of years and not many have tried.
The main one I think of with that stat is Parcells and he clearly was great enough to elevate those teams.
redrum52
Hall of Famer
I don't like the move and no idea why it was done so quickly.
they evidently liked him and he must have interviewed well and philosophically been a good fit with the franchise
id imagine aaron rodgers probably liked him too
they'd interviewed quite a few candidates so there's no harm in being quick once you know who your guy is
GG.exe
Practice Squad
Good article here, using a tailored statistical method to compare how wasteful or not coaches are at calling "early timeouts".
Eg, everyone assumes Andy Reid is bad at clock management, wasting early timeouts instead of saving them, but this study shows Reid uses these early timeouts to specifically find the right plays to get points or key first downs on the next play.
https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/...mccarthy-cardinals-cowboys-mcvay-mahomes-nagy
snippet....
-----------
The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
The Rams led the league in early timeouts with 29 total, but as it turns out, Sean McVay is no dummy. The Rams averaged .346 EPA on offensive plays following a timeout and over half a point added following a defensive timeout. They were, overall, the 6th most efficient team in football after a timeout, and unsurprisingly, the teams you think of as dominant on offense tended to be dominant after timeouts. Kansas City was the most impressive team, as they frequently attacked downfield after taking an early timeout (17 total, 16 on offense), adding nearly a point of EPA (.808) per play to lead the league. New Orleans and the Los Angeles Chargers were right behind at .635 and .504 respectively. Miami is the big surprise in the top five, but their success after timeouts was driven mostly by small sample size (only 12 early timeouts on offense) and a few big plays. It’s hard to say conclusively that the Chiefs, for instance, made the correct decision when taking timeouts since five yards barely seems to matter to them, but it’s also hard to argue with their success.
It’s not hard to argue with the success of the teams at the bottom of this chart. Denver is officially last, but they also only called one early timeout on offense all season, so a rate stat isn’t really applicable with them. Arizona, Dallas, and the Giants all appear near the bottom, partially because they were generally poor offensive teams, and partially because each team’s quarterback, at some point, threw an interception on the play after a timeout. Interceptions and fumbles cause enormous EPA swings, and throwing one was the fastest way to get to the bottom of this metric.
Other Oddities
Most teams did not spend many timeouts on defense, but for some reason, the Atlanta Falcons spent 10 early defensive timeouts, three more than the next highest team. They actually did help a bit as the Falcons gained about half a point per subsequent play, but the need to call that many timeouts on defense does not reflect well on Atlanta’s coaching staff.
The Doug Pederson coaching tree seems to be stingy with timeouts generally. The Eagles were 27th with 11 total early timeouts, and they were joined near the bottom by teams employing former Pederson assistants to run their offenses: John DeFilippo’s Vikings (5) and Frank Reich’s Colts (4).
New Orleans, Kansas City, and the Rams all added double digit EPA on plays after early timeouts. No other team added more than 5.7.
The Dallas Cowboys were by far the worst overall team on plays after early timeouts, losing 6 points on defense and 12 on offense. If any team should have conserved their timeouts for extra possessions, it was them. Arizona was nearly as bad.
Conclusion
For all of the teams in the middle, it’s very unlikely that calling an early timeout was an efficient play. While it can occasionally lead to a beneficial outcome, it seems like most teams are still too cavalier with timeouts and lose out on opportunities for extra possessions because of it. The fact that the Packers can’t run a play out of a timeout to save their lives is simply terrible icing on awful, sub-Hostess cake.
Early TO - No Kicks and Punts
Early TO with Kicks and Punts
All Timeouts
Eg, everyone assumes Andy Reid is bad at clock management, wasting early timeouts instead of saving them, but this study shows Reid uses these early timeouts to specifically find the right plays to get points or key first downs on the next play.
https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/...mccarthy-cardinals-cowboys-mcvay-mahomes-nagy
snippet....
-----------
The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
The Rams led the league in early timeouts with 29 total, but as it turns out, Sean McVay is no dummy. The Rams averaged .346 EPA on offensive plays following a timeout and over half a point added following a defensive timeout. They were, overall, the 6th most efficient team in football after a timeout, and unsurprisingly, the teams you think of as dominant on offense tended to be dominant after timeouts. Kansas City was the most impressive team, as they frequently attacked downfield after taking an early timeout (17 total, 16 on offense), adding nearly a point of EPA (.808) per play to lead the league. New Orleans and the Los Angeles Chargers were right behind at .635 and .504 respectively. Miami is the big surprise in the top five, but their success after timeouts was driven mostly by small sample size (only 12 early timeouts on offense) and a few big plays. It’s hard to say conclusively that the Chiefs, for instance, made the correct decision when taking timeouts since five yards barely seems to matter to them, but it’s also hard to argue with their success.
It’s not hard to argue with the success of the teams at the bottom of this chart. Denver is officially last, but they also only called one early timeout on offense all season, so a rate stat isn’t really applicable with them. Arizona, Dallas, and the Giants all appear near the bottom, partially because they were generally poor offensive teams, and partially because each team’s quarterback, at some point, threw an interception on the play after a timeout. Interceptions and fumbles cause enormous EPA swings, and throwing one was the fastest way to get to the bottom of this metric.
Other Oddities
Most teams did not spend many timeouts on defense, but for some reason, the Atlanta Falcons spent 10 early defensive timeouts, three more than the next highest team. They actually did help a bit as the Falcons gained about half a point per subsequent play, but the need to call that many timeouts on defense does not reflect well on Atlanta’s coaching staff.
The Doug Pederson coaching tree seems to be stingy with timeouts generally. The Eagles were 27th with 11 total early timeouts, and they were joined near the bottom by teams employing former Pederson assistants to run their offenses: John DeFilippo’s Vikings (5) and Frank Reich’s Colts (4).
New Orleans, Kansas City, and the Rams all added double digit EPA on plays after early timeouts. No other team added more than 5.7.
The Dallas Cowboys were by far the worst overall team on plays after early timeouts, losing 6 points on defense and 12 on offense. If any team should have conserved their timeouts for extra possessions, it was them. Arizona was nearly as bad.
Conclusion
For all of the teams in the middle, it’s very unlikely that calling an early timeout was an efficient play. While it can occasionally lead to a beneficial outcome, it seems like most teams are still too cavalier with timeouts and lose out on opportunities for extra possessions because of it. The fact that the Packers can’t run a play out of a timeout to save their lives is simply terrible icing on awful, sub-Hostess cake.
Early TO - No Kicks and Punts
Early TO with Kicks and Punts
All Timeouts
He did elevate the teams and is one of the few to do so at his level, because he came close.
Anyway, as misleading as it is, it’s never been done
certainly lots of options for interesting narratives
as a european fan im dreading it lol...
@KC (Lamar vs Mahomes again)
@LA (NFC 2 seed vs AFC 4 seed)
@Seattle (similarly run teams with similar attitudes and similar qualities)
@Buffalo (Sophomore QB matchup)
Vs. NE (Pats Ravens heat)
Vs. NYJ (Sophomore QB matchup)
Vs. Arizona (Sophomore QB matchup)
either browns game (Sophomore QB division matchup)
either steelers game (because one of them always is)
im not gonna lie but the steelers games might have much less juice (in terms of national interest) than some of our other games this year)
although there's a few games there that i expect will end up as the Romo 4:25 game - like Ravens@Rams or @Seahawks
i could definitely see a primetime Ravens Browns game early in the year for sure, or @KC as an almost definite primetime game
lots of options you're right
Ronnie Stanley was 2nd in pass blocking efficiency with a 98.2 this season, according to PFF. Tyron Smith was first at 98.5
JoeyFlex5
Hall of Famer
Calling it right now, ravens cardinals TNF
if this is the case we need to play Lasley at cb. sure he may not catch the ball, but Rosen could get confused and pass him the ball
that would mean we get a home TNF game = not gonna happen
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lol i got too excited by the idea that i didnt even finish reading your post
Although not formally confirmed, here is an article about the comp pick for Jensen
https://ravenswire.usatoday.com/201...rd-round-compensatory-pick-for-c-ryan-jensen/
https://ravenswire.usatoday.com/201...rd-round-compensatory-pick-for-c-ryan-jensen/
Note that overthecap projected us having an extra 3rd last year too but it dropped below the cutoff and because of cancellations we ended up with a 6th not a 3rd
Cancellations this time wouldn’t work out so it’s less of a crucial cutoff but there’s still a big difference between 3rd comp and 4th comp
And loosely remembering the maths I did around free agency last year I’d say jensen’s deal is right on the cutoff and my personal guess is that it comes in just below a 3rd
I’m very ready to be happily surprised and fully admit I could be over-estimating the year-to-year inflation
cobrajet
Hall of Famer
Agree brother!