The Random Thought Thread

[Adreme]

Time of possession is a stat that desperately needs to have a newer version put in. The current version is okay but still to me slightly inaccurate.

If I can use an extreme example lets say 2 teams have a 15-play drive with 30 seconds between plays to make it easy(count time of theplay in here to make it easy). That means both drives took 7.5 minutes real time.

Lets say team 1 runs it all 15 times so they get 7.5 minutes ToP. Team 2 passes it instead and lets say either because they only completed it on 3rd down or the receiver got out of bounds that only 5 times did the clock run.

Time of possession favors team 1 but in reality they possessed it the same length of time.

 

[JoeyFlex5]

Time of possession is a stat that desperately needs to have a newer version put in. The current version is okay but still to me slightly inaccurate.

If I can use an extreme example lets say 2 teams have a 15-play drive with 30 seconds between plays to make it easy(count time of theplay in here to make it easy). That means both drives took 7.5 minutes real time.

Lets say team 1 runs it all 15 times so they get 7.5 minutes ToP. Team 2 passes it instead and lets say either because they only completed it on 3rd down or the receiver got out of bounds that only 5 times did the clock run.

Time of possession favors team 1 but in reality they possessed it the same length of time.

The important metric in that stat is game time taken away, not real time. Yeah, real time the defense gets worn out, but TOP is more valuable due to eliminating chances for the opposing offense to score, if you have a 25/35 TOP difference then you have taken away a lot of chances for your opponent to score

 

[Adreme]

The important metric in that stat is game time taken away, not real time. Yeah, real time the defense gets worn out, but TOP is more valuable due to eliminating chances for the opposing offense to score, if you have a 25/35 TOP difference then you have taken away a lot of chances for your opponent to score

I mean your opponent has the roughly (due to halftime) the exact same number of opportunities to score as you do. Its possible to have 35-25 and both sides have 14 opportunities to score and its possible to be 30-30 with each side only having 7 opportunities to score. It just depends on the type of offense being run.

I remember a cowboys game a few years back that was like 45-42 and yet the top was almost 40-20

 

[cobrajet]

I mean your opponent has the roughly (due to halftime) the exact same number of opportunities to score as you do. Its possible to have 35-25 and both sides have 14 opportunities to score and its possible to be 30-30 with each side only having 7 opportunities to score. It just depends on the type of offense being run.

I remember a cowboys game a few years back that was like 45-42 and yet the top was almost 40-20

I still have to wonder if anyone has any statistics on if the team with the defense on the field less had an advantage at the end of the game because they were fresher, because I don't remember having any late fourth quarter collapses in the second half of the season. Maybe that was just because we had Wink instead of Pees.

 

[JoeyFlex5]

I mean your opponent has the roughly (due to halftime) the exact same number of opportunities to score as you do. Its possible to have 35-25 and both sides have 14 opportunities to score and its possible to be 30-30 with each side only having 7 opportunities to score. It just depends on the type of offense being run.

I remember a cowboys game a few years back that was like 45-42 and yet the top was almost 40-20

But when you consistently dominate TOP like that, the odds are that your long sustaining drives result in points, forcing the opposing offense to be perfect, because they know they won’t get many chances to score and to keep up they gotta walk away with points every time.

We saw it multiple times, against KC mahomes threw countless Hail Mary type super risky passes, and to our misfortune he was able to complete a lot of them, but if he doesn’t complete that no look pass on third and long, the Hail Mary on 4th and long, and if Eric weddle makes a piss easy tackle early in the game short of the sticks rather than shoulder and miss, then that game is a complete blowout, we forced the best offense in the league to take risks that would result in turnovers with 9/10 qbs in the league. The chargers were the same, rivers felt the only way to really move the ball was against our weakest corner which was Brandon Carr and he went after him 1v1 and immediately was picked, gates pointlessly fought for an extra few yards and fumbled, things like that come out of desperation because you know you have to take risks to try to squeeze points out of every possession.

Against this ravens team, one drive resulting in a punt at any point in the game could and will likely be the determining factor. There is a high chance that there’s a turnover and/or multiple three and outs, while we march down the field and pull 3 or more points from a majority of our possessions, forcing a turnover out of desperation or getting that one extra three and out is gonna win most games for us. That’s the beauty of TOP. Without a great defense, it doesn’t meant much, but we are built to win this way.

 

[Adreme]

I still have to wonder if anyone has any statistics on if the team with the defense on the field less had an advantage at the end of the game because they were fresher, because I don't remember having any late fourth quarter collapses in the second half of the season. Maybe that was just because we had Wink instead of Pees.

I think it was a combination of less prevent and the fact that the Ravens were managing to reduce the total number of possessions in a game. ToP does not necessarily indicate that though and I just have to wonder if there is a better way to track that statistic because as it is now its one of those self-fulfilling statistics similar to the stats on teams that run the ball winning more often which of course is true because you run the ball more when you are winning so thus you have more ToP because you are winning.

 

[cobrajet]

I think it was a combination of less prevent and the fact that the Ravens were managing to reduce the total number of possessions in a game. ToP does not necessarily indicate that though and I just have to wonder if there is a better way to track that statistic because as it is now its one of those self-fulfilling statistics similar to the stats on teams that run the ball winning more often which of course is true because you run the ball more when you are winning so thus you have more ToP because you are winning.

Yeah I don't think Wink is a big fan of the Prevent Defense.....Thank God!

 

[cobrajet]

I was watching Pro Football Talk this morning and Florio was talking about the CFL and says, "Remember when the CFL tried to invade America and actually put a team in Baltimore and even called them the Baltimore Colts? Look it up folks." Maybe Florio should get his facts straight before putting his foot in his mouth. Baltimore joined the CFL and was highly successful here with the team they named the Stallions. It was highly supported by the city and the Stallions even won the Grey Cup. We would probably still have the team if Art did not move his team here.

 

[JO_75]

Joe Flacco went 3/4 for 19 yards in his only drive of the game against the Seahawks. Though he may face pressure from Drew Lock who looked very good tonight. I would hate it for Joe to be benched after we traded him and him thinking he was going to be the starter only to be beaten out by a rookie.

 

[allblackraven]

Joe Flacco went 3/4 for 19 yards in his only drive of the game against the Seahawks. Though he may face pressure from Drew Lock who looked very good tonight. I would hate it for Joe to be benched after we traded him and him thinking he was going to be the starter only to be beaten out by a rookie.

Bah, it wouldn't be first time for him.

 

[JoeyFlex5]

Joe Flacco went 3/4 for 19 yards in his only drive of the game against the Seahawks. Though he may face pressure from Drew Lock who looked very good tonight. I would hate it for Joe to be benched after we traded him and him thinking he was going to be the starter only to be beaten out by a rookie.

Well... he could just be better and put in more work.

Flacco was a goddamn SB MVP and consistently scared the whole afc every year because they knew if the ravens made the playoffs then there’s a good chance they gotta beat playoff joe to make it to the dance.

Why he decided to stop working to get better, and kinda just went about it like a 9-5 and went home and had another baby every week, is beyond me. I root for joe and hope for the best for him, but if he loses his job again it’ll be his fault.

 

[purp]

Well... he could just be better and put in more work.

Flacco was a goddamn SB MVP and consistently scared the whole afc every year because they knew if the ravens made the playoffs then there’s a good chance they gotta beat playoff joe to make it to the dance.

Why he decided to stop working to get better, and kinda just went about it like a 9-5 and went home and had another baby every week, is beyond me. I root for joe and hope for the best for him, but if he loses his job again it’ll be his fault.

I always hated the “January Joe” narrative because the unsaid part of it lies in “if they make the playoffs.” Joe could’ve been a great one but he just never showed the internal motivation to be that every day. Given the history of QB play in Ravens history it was a huge step forward for our franchise but man...what could’ve been.

 

[cobrajet]

I always hated the “January Joe” narrative because the unsaid part of it lies in “if they make the playoffs.” Joe could’ve been a great one but he just never showed the internal motivation to be that every day. Given the history of QB play in Ravens history it was a huge step forward for our franchise but man...what could’ve been.

I agree, Joe was a likable guy and I will never forget those playoff games and that incredible Super Bowl run, but what you and @JoeyFlex5 said was why I have become such a fan of Lamar so quickly. You see the passion in this young man. He seems so humble has such a willingness to learn. When he comes off the field he is taking to his teammates not sitting on the bench like a statue. If he makes a mistake, he is the first to acknowledge it and learn from it. I am going to be honest, watching Lamar makes me wish I was young again and I could round up some guys in the old neighborhood and go play. I liked Joe, but for me, Lamar definitely makes it even more fun to watch Ravens football now.

 

[purp]

I agree, Joe was a likable guy and I will never forget those playoff games and that incredible Super Bowl run, but what you and @JoeyFlex5 said was why I have become such a fan of Lamar so quickly. You see the passion in this young man. He seems so humble has such a willingness to learn. When he comes off the field he is taking to his teammates not sitting on the bench like a statue. If he makes a mistake, he is the first to acknowledge it and learn from it. I am going to be honest, watching Lamar makes me wish I was young again and I could round up some guys in the old neighborhood and go play. I liked Joe, but for me, Lamar definitely makes it even more fun to watch Ravens football now.

Amen, brother. That’s what it’s all about.

 

[cobrajet]

After seeing some of the younger guys step up on the defensive line, I am not really upset Gerald McCoy turned us down anymore. Anyone else?

 

[RavensMania]

After seeing some of the younger guys step up on the defensive line, I am not really upset Gerald McCoy turned us down anymore. Anyone else?

Agree and it's his loss. Of course, I wasn't totally on the McCoy train anyway.

 

[cobrajet]

I am still not sold on the pass interference challenges. I hope some ticky tacky challenge does not bite us in the backside. Especially when we see the Saints in the Super Bowl and the refs feel they owe them from last season....lol.

 

[RL52TheGreatest]

I am still not sold on the pass interference challenges. I hope some ticky tacky challenge does not bite us in the backside. Especially when we see the Saints in the Super Bowl and the refs feel they owe them from last season....lol.

Teams are going to challenge it like crazy during the preseason to see what the limits are, but once the regular season hits then it's back to being frugal. Keep in mind that the amount of challenges that a coach gets is still the same so they're not just going to challenge every questionable PI call unless they're absolutely sure that it's going to get overturned.

 

[allblackraven]

Well... he could just be better and put in more work.

Why he decided to stop working to get better, and kinda just went about it like a 9-5 and went home and had another baby every week, is beyond me.

$120mil at age 27?

 

[purp]

$120mil at age 27?

I dunno, the dude went to McDonald’s to celebrate that contract. To me it was more symptomatic of guy blessed with rare physical traits that was good with being good enough.