The Random Thought Thread

[rmcjacket23]

He did have a lot of drops but alot of those drops were questionable passes as well, not all but a good number of them were those “catchable” passes that weren’t THAT catchable.

and don’t think I’m saying I expect dez Bryant to be some world beater, I think it’s a stretch for him to even get signed here(I say that because I think we like our wr room and we may not see room for him), but I do think that the super harsh analysis of him and saying definitively that his abilities have completely disappeared since 2017 is a little unwarranted, he was still productive though definitely on a decline, and his injury and reputation combined to basically make him a non factor in the market, it’s not like he completely fell off the planet talent wise, we have evidence of a decline, not a complete loss of ability, everything else was extrapolated

I don't think anybody suggested he simply can't play at all.

I'm saying when you factor in a) an obvious decrease in talent, b) coming off a very significant injury, c) having not played competitive football in two years, and d) coming to a team where targets and the ability to produce is extremely limited to the overall direction of the offense, I think expectations should be set to commensurate with the salary we would pay him, which is very low.

You mentioned ball placement from Dak. To be honest... I'm not sure playing with Lamar, at least based on what I saw last year, is a gigantic upgrade. Lamar isn't like a Brady/Manning surgical level with the football. Fans tend to pretend like completion % is the measurement of accuracy, but its not. Lamar throws a LOT of balls that are caught that aren't exactly in the perfect spot to be caught. He throws behind guys quite a bit, and his receivers are forced to use quite a bit of body control to catch some of his passes. I expect that will improve as he grows as a QB, but if we're going to defend Dez by saying a lot of his dropped passes are a result of less-than-ideal ball placement by the QB, I think it would be difficult for anybody to suggest that will dramatically improve with year 3 Lamar Jackson.

If I were to look at this statistically, here's the expectation I would set (and this would be aggressive in my opinion)...

Last year Lamar threw 400 passes. I'm assuming he's going to remain roughly in that range again. I think he could possibly go as high as 450, but I think anything higher than that is a major problem for the offense.

Assuming that Dez would be, at best, the 3rd option in the passing game, behind Hollywood and Andrews (and I think that's a stretch to be honest), the 3rd leading target share last season was Willie Snead with 46 targets in 16 games. Comes out to nearly 3 targets a game.

So if Dez were basically able to bypass the rest of the depth chart and be the #2 WR, I would guess he would get somewhere around 3-4 targets per game, on average. Those aren't receptions... those are targets. Assuming Lamar completes 2/3 of those, you're talking an average game of roughly 2-3 catches. At an average of roughly 13 YPC, that translates into somewhere around 30 yards/game.

So in what I see as a best case scenario, he would probably have a season of around 40 receptions for probably in the range of 400-500 yards. I think that's the absolute best Dez would give you. TDs would be hard to predict, but its hard to think you would get any more than maybe 3-4 on 40 catches.

In practicality, I think these numbers are aggressive. I think the Ravens are going to use the RBs in the passing game a LOT more this year (especially with Dobbins here, who is exceptional out of the backfield), and I think Boykin and Duvernay will also be in the mix for snaps/targets and have a ton more upside than Dez in my opinion.

I think we pretty much know that Hollywood, Boykin, Snead and Duvernay are making this team. Proche would have a good shot too. And I think they'd keep all 5 of those guys before they considered keeping Dez. Becomes a math/roster construction issue at that point. How many receivers are you going to carry. Dez not seemingly being a special teams guy probably isn't going to help either.

 

[Deebo813]

I don't think anybody suggested he simply can't play at all.

I'm saying when you factor in a) an obvious decrease in talent, b) coming off a very significant injury, c) having not played competitive football in two years, and d) coming to a team where targets and the ability to produce is extremely limited to the overall direction of the offense, I think expectations should be set to commensurate with the salary we would pay him, which is very low.

You mentioned ball placement from Dak. To be honest... I'm not sure playing with Lamar, at least based on what I saw last year, is a gigantic upgrade. Lamar isn't like a Brady/Manning surgical level with the football. Fans tend to pretend like completion % is the measurement of accuracy, but its not. Lamar throws a LOT of balls that are caught that aren't exactly in the perfect spot to be caught. He throws behind guys quite a bit, and his receivers are forced to use quite a bit of body control to catch some of his passes. I expect that will improve as he grows as a QB, but if we're going to defend Dez by saying a lot of his dropped passes are a result of less-than-ideal ball placement by the QB, I think it would be difficult for anybody to suggest that will dramatically improve with year 3 Lamar Jackson.

If I were to look at this statistically, here's the expectation I would set (and this would be aggressive in my opinion)...

Last year Lamar threw 400 passes. I'm assuming he's going to remain roughly in that range again. I think he could possibly go as high as 450, but I think anything higher than that is a major problem for the offense.

Assuming that Dez would be, at best, the 3rd option in the passing game, behind Hollywood and Andrews (and I think that's a stretch to be honest), the 3rd leading target share last season was Willie Snead with 46 targets in 16 games. Comes out to nearly 3 targets a game.

So if Dez were basically able to bypass the rest of the depth chart and be the #2 WR, I would guess he would get somewhere around 3-4 targets per game, on average. Those aren't receptions... those are targets. Assuming Lamar completes 2/3 of those, you're talking an average game of roughly 2-3 catches. At an average of roughly 13 YPC, that translates into somewhere around 30 yards/game.

So in what I see as a best case scenario, he would probably have a season of around 40 receptions for probably in the range of 400-500 yards. I think that's the absolute best Dez would give you. TDs would be hard to predict, but its hard to think you would get any more than maybe 3-4 on 40 catches.

In practicality, I think these numbers are aggressive. I think the Ravens are going to use the RBs in the passing game a LOT more this year (especially with Dobbins here, who is exceptional out of the backfield), and I think Boykin and Duvernay will also be in the mix for snaps/targets and have a ton more upside than Dez in my opinion.

I think we pretty much know that Hollywood, Boykin, Snead and Duvernay are making this team. Proche would have a good shot too. And I think they'd keep all 5 of those guys before they considered keeping Dez. Becomes a math/roster construction issue at that point. How many receivers are you going to carry. Dez not seemingly being a special teams guy probably isn't going to help either.

Man are you on point with this one.

 

[rossihunter2]

I don't think anybody suggested he simply can't play at all.

I'm saying when you factor in a) an obvious decrease in talent, b) coming off a very significant injury, c) having not played competitive football in two years, and d) coming to a team where targets and the ability to produce is extremely limited to the overall direction of the offense, I think expectations should be set to commensurate with the salary we would pay him, which is very low.

You mentioned ball placement from Dak. To be honest... I'm not sure playing with Lamar, at least based on what I saw last year, is a gigantic upgrade. Lamar isn't like a Brady/Manning surgical level with the football. Fans tend to pretend like completion % is the measurement of accuracy, but its not. Lamar throws a LOT of balls that are caught that aren't exactly in the perfect spot to be caught. He throws behind guys quite a bit, and his receivers are forced to use quite a bit of body control to catch some of his passes. I expect that will improve as he grows as a QB, but if we're going to defend Dez by saying a lot of his dropped passes are a result of less-than-ideal ball placement by the QB, I think it would be difficult for anybody to suggest that will dramatically improve with year 3 Lamar Jackson.

If I were to look at this statistically, here's the expectation I would set (and this would be aggressive in my opinion)...

Last year Lamar threw 400 passes. I'm assuming he's going to remain roughly in that range again. I think he could possibly go as high as 450, but I think anything higher than that is a major problem for the offense.

Assuming that Dez would be, at best, the 3rd option in the passing game, behind Hollywood and Andrews (and I think that's a stretch to be honest), the 3rd leading target share last season was Willie Snead with 46 targets in 16 games. Comes out to nearly 3 targets a game.

So if Dez were basically able to bypass the rest of the depth chart and be the #2 WR, I would guess he would get somewhere around 3-4 targets per game, on average. Those aren't receptions... those are targets. Assuming Lamar completes 2/3 of those, you're talking an average game of roughly 2-3 catches. At an average of roughly 13 YPC, that translates into somewhere around 30 yards/game.

So in what I see as a best case scenario, he would probably have a season of around 40 receptions for probably in the range of 400-500 yards. I think that's the absolute best Dez would give you. TDs would be hard to predict, but its hard to think you would get any more than maybe 3-4 on 40 catches.

In practicality, I think these numbers are aggressive. I think the Ravens are going to use the RBs in the passing game a LOT more this year (especially with Dobbins here, who is exceptional out of the backfield), and I think Boykin and Duvernay will also be in the mix for snaps/targets and have a ton more upside than Dez in my opinion.

I think we pretty much know that Hollywood, Boykin, Snead and Duvernay are making this team. Proche would have a good shot too. And I think they'd keep all 5 of those guys before they considered keeping Dez. Becomes a math/roster construction issue at that point. How many receivers are you going to carry. Dez not seemingly being a special teams guy probably isn't going to help either.

it's the reason why michael floyd never really had a chance last year to make the roster either, dez wont be playing special teams so he's not really battling the back-end of the WR depth chart he's battling the middle of the depth chart (the guys who are guaranteed to make the roster) - he's fighting them for snaps and if he makes enough of an impact he'll make the team and push them down but he wont be making the roster as WR5 or WR6 because then he's up against chris moore and he'll lose that battle on a special teams basis

 

[rmcjacket23]

it's the reason why michael floyd never really had a chance last year to make the roster either, dez wont be playing special teams so he's not really battling the back-end of the WR depth chart he's battling the middle of the depth chart (the guys who are guaranteed to make the roster) - he's fighting them for snaps and if he makes enough of an impact he'll make the team and push them down but he wont be making the roster as WR5 or WR6 because then he's up against chris moore and he'll lose that battle on a special teams basis

There's four WRs that are guaranteed to make the team. Dez is going to have to play ahead, and practice ahead, of guys like Duvernay and/or Boykin to be kept on the roster at cuts.

I don't think the team is going to throw in the towel on Boykin at this point.

 

[rossihunter2]

There's four WRs that are guaranteed to make the team. Dez is going to have to play ahead, and practice ahead, of guys like Duvernay and/or Boykin to be kept on the roster at cuts.

I don't think the team is going to throw in the towel on Boykin at this point.

boykin's guaranteed on the roster just for his WR blocking on the outside and his pure athleticism tbh

but you're right, dez is going to have to persuade the coaches and front office that he deserves more snaps than the rookies to make this team

 

[UPennChem]

Random thought, I think a week 1 win vs the browns could be really tone setting for the season. I also believe it could be equally tone setting if we lose. We have struggled vs the browns even going into Flaccos last years. They got us once and almost twice last year. I think a big part of why we were so good last year was the confidence and togetherness that came from hardwork and winning. Also a little bit extra special feelings about being so unique. The more we lose, the more of that feeling we're unstoppable will go. Which may or may not be a good thing lol. Could eliminate the overlooked them situation. But I think more than anything else I want a week 1 and week 3 win against KC.

 

[Corvus Purpura]

I'm still in awe that we essentially traded Vedvik for Campbell. Same 5th rounder.
Also that we got Marcus Peters for a 5th and a player we didn't need.
Campbell and Peters for 5th rounders, a 5th for Vedvik. Unbelievable. It continues to amaze me.

 

[purplepittabread88]

Article on Dj fluker was awesome. he lost 50 pounds and couldn’t even do a sit-up last year. wow. can’t post cuz on a plane but someone link it for others

 

[rossihunter2]

I'm still in awe that we essentially traded Vedvik for Campbell. Same 5th rounder.
Also that we got Marcus Peters for a 5th and a player we didn't need.
Campbell and Peters for 5th rounders, a 5th for Vedvik. Unbelievable. It continues to amaze me.

technically broderick washington was taken with the pick we got for vedvik but the vedvik pick was initially part of the campbell deal but then something happened that optioned it to a different 5th rounder we had

 

[Simba]

Article on Dj fluker was awesome. he lost 50 pounds and couldn’t even do a sit-up last year. wow. can’t post cuz on a plane but someone link it for others

It's a crazy transformation. He was a huge human to begin with but muscled Fluker looks like someone I'd never want to piss off. He's still a big guy so movement is going to be tough for him, but with his commitment to himself this offseason, you've got to believe we're getting the best version of himself. Is it good enough to hack it? Time will tell, but the work he put in is certainly encouraging.

 

[rossihunter2]

It's a crazy transformation. He was a huge human to begin with but muscled Fluker looks like someone I'd never want to piss off. He's still a big guy so movement is going to be tough for him, but with his commitment to himself this offseason, you've got to believe we're getting the best version of himself. Is it good enough to hack it? Time will tell, but the work he put in is certainly encouraging.

we'll see how he gets on but ive been watching tape on him - his best seasons were in a chargers uniform but he was never spectacular there and was still victimised sometimes by lateral type pass rush moves when lined up 1v1

watching his 2019 tape is a bit worrying at times - the bodywork helps to differentiate this fluker from that fluker but he's never been a spectacular guard (hence the reason he's never really stuck anywhere for a significant number of years after his rookie deal was up) and the more tape i watch of him in 2019 the more i wonder whether tyre phillips is that far away from that level already?

it will be telling if fluker's still getting all the 1s reps next week too but i think powers and phillips have a chance based on my study so far

2018 was straight up horrifyingly bad from fluker lol

 

[Simba]

we'll see how he gets on but ive been watching tape on him - his best seasons were in a chargers uniform but he was never spectacular there and was still victimised sometimes by lateral type pass rush moves when lined up 1v1

watching his 2019 tape is a bit worrying at times - the bodywork helps to differentiate this fluker from that fluker but he's never been a spectacular guard (hence the reason he's never really stuck anywhere for a significant number of years after his rookie deal was up) and the more tape i watch of him in 2019 the more i wonder whether tyre phillips is that far away from that level already?

it will be telling if fluker's still getting all the 1s reps next week too but i think powers and phillips have a chance based on my study so far

2018 was straight up horrifyingly bad from fluker lol

Just to be clear, I do not have high expectations. I think we'll have the best version of Fluker the NFL has seen but that's not a super hard line to cross. He's a good stopgap to start the year, especially since the young guys are behind the curve. Wouldn't shock me if he stayed a starter all year or ends up replaced midseason either, but I'd be surprised if he's not the guy out there week 1.

 

[JoeyFlex5]

Another player who’s been forgotten about in all the hype around our defense is jimmy smith. Everyone is so buzzed about Humphrey and peters, that they’re forgetting that you can count on one hand the number of teams that wouldn’t have healthy jimmy as their top 2 corner.

Feels like his name has been tossed out there a lot in the first 3 days of camp. I love the idea of jimmy smith getting to face lesser receivers on basically every snap, while the top options are shut down by our 1 and 2. Jimmy seems to have gained a shit ton of skill and savvy in the past 2 years and his physical tools seem every bit as intact as they’ve ever been. I’m expecting a nice year from him. Does it sound impossible to have every starter in our secondary in the pro bowl?

 

[Deebo813]

Another player who’s been forgotten about in all the hype around our defense is jimmy smith. Everyone is so buzzed about Humphrey and peters, that they’re forgetting that you can count on one hand the number of teams that wouldn’t have healthy jimmy as their top 2 corner.

Feels like his name has been tossed out there a lot in the first 3 days of camp. I love the idea of jimmy smith getting to face lesser receivers on basically every snap, while the top options are shut down by our 1 and 2. Jimmy seems to have gained a shit ton of skill and savvy in the past 2 years and his physical tools seem every bit as intact as they’ve ever been. I’m expecting a nice year from him. Does it sound impossible to have every starter in our secondary in the pro bowl?

Man i was just telling my cuz that i love jimmy smith. Underrated player on our team. He lost a few pounds i believe i read..

 

[JoeyFlex5]

Man i was just telling my cuz that i love jimmy smith. Underrated player on our team. He lost a few pounds i believe i read..

I just hope that when jimmy retires or leaves, he’s put together enough healthy seasons in Baltimore for the casual fan to start appreciating him so that his name can stop getting dragged through the mud. Since the super bowl run he’s been right up near the top of my list of favorite ravens consistently.

 

[Deebo813]

I just hope that when jimmy retires or leaves, he’s put together enough healthy seasons in Baltimore for the casual fan to start appreciating him so that his name can stop getting dragged through the mud. Since the super bowl run he’s been right up near the top of my list of favorite ravens consistently.

My boy thats a faclon fan always bring up that year where he player very good defense on julio. Think it was 2013

 

[Deebo813]

Other then a divisional team, i dnt think anyone in afc gonna beat us once playoffs hit. I love our chances over kc this time around once offs start. Matter fact, i think bills have a better chance at beating us than kc. I know its early but as of now, im really liking our chances. Not enough experienced teams in afc this season

 

[RL52TheGreatest]

I just hope that when jimmy retires or leaves, he’s put together enough healthy seasons in Baltimore for the casual fan to start appreciating him so that his name can stop getting dragged through the mud. Since the super bowl run he’s been right up near the top of my list of favorite ravens consistently.

He's been one of my favorite players ever since we drafted him. It has always sucked to see him get injured, and then to see the huge drop-off on our defense afterwards before we started stockpiling corners, but he was always one of the best corners in the league when he was on the field during his prime years. And now, he's still very, very good even though he's entering the later stages of his career. I think he can really thrive in the hybrid CB/S role that Carr had since he's always been a solid tackler and has great instincts/awareness.

 

[JAAM]

I’m done with this whack ass site

 

[Davesta]

I’m done with this whack ass site

NFL memes is a troll site. Can’t take them serious