cdp
Ravens Ring of Honor
It's actually like trading. You have to realize losses early.
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The Random Thought Thread
- Thread starter The Greek
- Start date
rmcjacket23
Ravens Ring of Honor
I mean... there's not much to like at this point.
They're at ~$200M, so they'll probably be $15-25M over the cap.
Problem #1 is the albatross of a contract for Big Ben, who has a 2021 cap hit of $41.25M. It's the final year of his contract, so normally would be a prime extension candidate (and he'll probably still get it), but have to wonder how much longer they want to play that game with a then 39 year old QB who's clearly not the same. Maybe he gives them a sizeable discount down to like $20-25M a year and they can slash a lot of his cap hit down, but that's a big IF.
Ultimately, they're probably in a better position than others. They could get rid of Ebron and Vance McDonald and save over $11M alone, and they've got several highly paid players who will be going into their last year of their deals (Ben, Haden, Nelson, DeCastro, Pouncey), all four of the latter having cap hits in the $14-15M range. They could try to extend most of those guys and backload a bit and still be able to create space.
Now, the big question for them is what to do with their free agents. Dupree isn't under contract, and even coming off a torn ACL, still figures to fetch a decent price. Williams, Villaneuva, Alualu, JuJu, and Conner are all UFAs, among others. Retaining JuJu and Dupree alone would probably cost close to $30M a year in AAV. Can backload, but I'd imagine one of those guys will be gone.
Bottom line... they're not in huge trouble, but like most offseasons, I don't see a lot of ways where they can upgrade their team beyond the draft. They won't be players in FA, and will likely focus on keeping their own guys, and will obviously lose some.
im pretty confident juju's gone
until diontae johnson got a serious case of the dropsies it looked like he was the clear number 1 receiver there and they've got claypool who's looked promising and james washington who's also a nice complementary piece - i imagine they'll add another guy to that corps again but i dont think there's any way they keep juju
JoeyFlex5
Hall of Famer
With our low count of draft picks, we should avoid any free agent that would interfere with our ability to get a third or fourth comp. retain bowser and ngakoue, let every other FA walk, make budget signings only, unless there’s a slam dunk pick available in round 1 trade back.
it’s the only way we’ll restock.
JAAM
Hall of Famer
I agree with all of this but I really want one of Robinson, JuJu or Golladay lol. Just want that #1 for Lamar
I think Marvin Jones is a perfect fit for the Ravens.
rmcjacket23
Ravens Ring of Honor
Well I don't think Judon will net a 3rd rounder, and I'm not restricting our FA movements just to recoup a day 3 draft pick a year later. The window is closing on this team being able to maintain the quality of roster it has, given that Lamar is still on his rookie deal.
We're not going to be big spenders in FA because we won't have the money. But I'm not passing to get a good player we can afford just to get a 4th rounder in 2022.
why dont you think judon would bring in a 3rd rounder?
rmcjacket23
Ravens Ring of Honor
Depends on price. He's going to need an AAV probably of at least $14-15M to qualify, based on how that's been trending. Many of the third round comp picks projected for 2021 were QB's, meaning guy north of $20M.
Also, as I said before, its still NET free agents lost. You can't just let Judon walk and then sign 5 cheap guys and think you're getting ANY comp pick for him, because you won't. Its qualifying free agents lost compared to qualifying free agents gained.
And, remember, we don't have a third rounder right now. And while it looks like we'll pick up 2 or 3 comp picks for 2021, I don't know that any will be above round 5. So you've got two picks in the first two days. And this team has holes to fill and it's not just going to be done in the draft.
JoeyFlex5
Hall of Famer
Funny you would put jujus name under “#1”
JoeyFlex5
Hall of Famer
I’m not even implying he would, though I think there’s a solid chance he does.
but if you want any chance of competing beyond Lamar’s rookie deal, you gotta have young talent. If the ravens continue to go all in on years 3/4 for Lamar then we will extend him to a mega deal and it will be so absolutely terrible when all of our talent is either retired or on other teams or declining from age and we will have no young cheap talent to replace them.
I get what you’re saying, but I think the “all in” philosophy is just about maxed out for this team, in other words I’m not sure how we even could manage to bring in big name comp-cancelling FAs, the last 2 seasons and offseasons have been the all-in offseasons and right now it just looks like it’s time to get to the maintenance phase unless we wanna end up like the eagles or saints
the only thing is that we're unlikely to be looking at players with massive markets - just like in recent years it's possible that we do more of our filling out the roster with free agents shopping after the comp pick deadline
i'm expecting a 5th rounder and maybe a 6th rounder in 2021's draft - i just find it hard to believe that if judon or ngakoue (or both) sign elsewhere that we wont find a way to protect at least one of those comp picks
the cutoff number you mention seems to be about right - to me looks closer to 15 than 14m - but given that Judon's playing at nearly 17m this year, I find it hard to believe that his number's going to come down by the potentially 3m/yr required to not earn us a 3rd round comp pick
and if his number really is around 14m/yr then i imagine we'd re-sign him at that number
I will say that as well as Powers has done since taking over the start, this is still fairly surprising to me - seeing Bozeman on the list is much less surprising
that being said Powers did really well against the Steelers and Cowboys and he did solidly fine against the Browns - how he finishes this season will be a huge indicator of what his future looks like
but surprisingly i'd say center still looks like our weakest spot right now (other than RT) looking forwards to next year
rmcjacket23
Ravens Ring of Honor
I'm not suggesting we go Eagles or Rams level and sign expensive FAs and make significant trades. I'm saying if this team wants to win in the next couple years, it won't be able to do so merely by just drafting players. We haven't been good enough in the draft to do that.
They will need to sign moderate to cheap FAs to do it, and that will have impact on comp picks.
Once Lamar gets his huge deal, the Ravens will be forced to do what every other team in the league in that spot does... draft extremely well, retain maybe 4-5 really good players on market value deals, and let any other good players walk. That's the trade off of having a market-value QB.
I'll always be the guy who says drafting is important. But I'll never be the guy who tells you to not add players who can help you win a Lombardi just to protect a day 3 or even day 2 comp pick. A really, really, really good team at drafting is going to get a stud on that pick like 10-15% of the time, and maybe a starter-caliber like 40-50% of the time. At least half the time, the guy you didn't sign in FA to keep that pick is going to turn out to be a better football player than the guy you selected.
Its why the only teams that are pretty good at drafting have quantity over quality. You got teams that have been picking inside the top 5-10 consistently for a decade that still suck at football.
If there was ever a year to not worry about comp picks, for me, its 2021. You'll never get better free agents at cheaper prices than you will in 2021. If you're not going to take advantage of that, with the means to do so, then what's the point?
JoeyFlex5
Hall of Famer
all fair points
JoeyFlex5
Hall of Famer
man ben powers has looked really good to me, hes a guy im noticing a lot on replays.
if he continues to play like this im not dead set on IOL this whole offseason lol, i still desperately want a top center though.
josh myers round 2 it is i guess
i dont feel desperate for an IOL but if there's a high quality prospect available when we pick, im still sure as hell not turning it down especially if they play center
JAAM
Hall of Famer
Yea I know, but he just seems perfect for our offense. Just stop the stupid ass kid shit
Grim
Ravens Ring of Honor
Why do you think RT is a need? We have Orlando Brown and Stanley will be back.
I was going to ask you what you guys think the need is but you kind of answered it. We always hear how OL is a huge need literally every offseason then it becomes a problem early on in the season then settles down later. Powers and Bozeman both look very good and honestly so does Mekari. Would that stop me from adding a top talent? Nope, it sure wouldn’t but I think we could definitely use a guy to play swing tackle. I would also love to get a C too, perhaps early even.
what position would you go in your top 5? I would think TE & WR would be high up there, CB included. For me right now I would have CB, S, Wr, TE, OL, DL as my highest priorities.