The Random Thought Thread

[rossihunter2]

And that's possible. But assuming they're bringing back the same GM and coach, this is a group that picked Trubisky over Mahomes and Watson. There's not a lot of faith in their identification and development of QB talent. I think their best chance at getting a franchise QB is ending up with a top 5 pick and having somebody they can't possibly screw up fall into their laps.

the problem for that staff and GM is that they wont be around to make that top 5 pick if they get one...

 

[rmcjacket23]

the problem for that staff and GM is that they wont be around to make that top 5 pick if they get one...

Right. Which is why I think they'll go the veteran QB route. If you draft somebody at, say, 20, he may not be a year 1 starter. So now you've drafted a guy at 20, you then either keep Trubisky or sign a veteran for next year, and you're almost certainly no better of a team next year than this year.

Which means Nagy certainly gets fired, Pace is probably 50/50 to keep his job, and a new coach and/or GM inherits a QB at #20 he may not even like.

 

[Deebo813]

Just seen the full route from hollywood on the first td and man that shit was ugly.. ugly as in i dnt know how the cb let that work

 

[Deebo813]

If we call a bad game and lose to titans, do you all think both john and roman get fired

 

[rmcjacket23]

If we call a bad game and lose to titans, do you all think both john and roman get fired

Not a chance in hell. None of our coordinators or HC are getting fired with a loss at any point this postseason.

I honestly don't think Steve will even entertain the thought.

 

[RavensMania]

This is the draft order up until and including his estimates of the teams that will lose in wild card weekend.

 

[rossihunter2]

Just seen the full route from hollywood on the first td and man that shit was ugly.. ugly as in i dnt know how the cb let that work

not sure what the DB can do about it - he's got no help and Hollywood's quicker than him and the CB had outside leverage which meant that any in-breaking route was putting him at a major disadvantage

 

[UPennChem]

Given that EDC tried to trade for Ertz, do you 1, think he might try again next year when the cost should be even lower? Seems like from his crying hus time is up in Philly. I also wonder if the Eagles will be dumb enough to just cut him.

 

[Deebo813]

Not a chance in hell. None of our coordinators or HC are getting fired with a loss at any point this postseason.

I honestly don't think Steve will even entertain the thought.

Idk man. If this game was turn out like last year, which i think wont happen... i dnt think roman will be our oc next season but then again he is great at run scheming so idk

 

[rmcjacket23]

Idk man. If this game was turn out like last year, which i think wont happen... i dnt think roman will be our oc next season but then again he is great at run scheming so idk

I don't even have a problem with the play calling from last year, so why would it be different?

All the people that thought we lost because Roman was "pass happy" or whatever you want to call it should go back and look at how the game unfolded and the play selection. Its a myth that's not supportable with evidence.

Neither Steve nor John are going to fire a guy over one bad game. If Roman's not our OC next season, it'll be because he got a HC gig, or because he doesn't want to be the coach. It won't be because he got fired.

 

[JAAM]

I’m so happy Prime was a Raven

 

[cdp]

Let's hope Jimmy suits up for the titans game! His contract (&extension) is an absolute bargain.

 

[JoeyFlex5]

I don't even have a problem with the play calling from last year, so why would it be different?

All the people that thought we lost because Roman was "pass happy" or whatever you want to call it should go back and look at how the game unfolded and the play selection. Its a myth that's not supportable with evidence.

Neither Steve nor John are going to fire a guy over one bad game. If Roman's not our OC next season, it'll be because he got a HC gig, or because he doesn't want to be the coach. It won't be because he got fired.

You always say this and use down and distance, score, and time left to support your arguments, but the ravens have time and time again shown that those factors simply don’t apply to their run game the same way it applies to others.

You really should stop looking at the ravens play calling through the same lens as a traditional offense, we have the most untraditional offense in the league.

 

[rmcjacket23]

You always say this and use down and distance, score, and time left to support your arguments, but the ravens have time and time again shown that those factors simply don’t apply to their run game the same way it applies to others.

You really should stop looking at the ravens play calling through the same lens as a traditional offense, we have the most untraditional offense in the league.

How have they shown that time and time again? When have the Ravens shown that their running game has been effective in coming back from two or three score deficits? This offense is non-traditional when the game is close, or when they're winning. That's when its non-traditional.

When the Ravens deficit grows, they run a traditional offense. They've shown that time and time again also. They simply don't have a choice. NFL teams would BEG the Ravens to run the ball when they're down 20 points in the second half. They'll let you get 4-5 yard carries all game long. It'll take 6-7 minutes to score, and the defense will gladly take that.

 

[JoeyFlex5]

How have they shown that time and time again? When have the Ravens shown that their running game has been effective in coming back from two or three score deficits? This offense is non-traditional when the game is close, or when they're winning. That's when its non-traditional.

When the Ravens deficit grows, they run a traditional offense. They've shown that time and time again also. They simply don't have a choice. NFL teams would BEG the Ravens to run the ball when they're down 20 points in the second half. They'll let you get 4-5 yard carries all game long. It'll take 6-7 minutes to score, and the defense will gladly take that.

But they aren’t gaining 4-5 yards they’re gashing across all gaps for 10+ yards routinely, they have driven the length of the field with nearly all run plays in a matter of minutes and they’ve done it many times.

literally no other team runs the ball like the ravens, that’s why it’s non traditional, not because of how often we run, but how effectively and explosively. Lamar and dobbins break 20+ yarders so frequently at this point that we move the ball like a passing offense on the ground.

I just don’t buy the narrative that if we’re down 2 scores or if it’s 3rd and 5 or more that it’s automatically time to air it out.

You can’t quantify every single aspect of football with analytics, last year the theory was that the ravens offense was at its best in the spread because analytics said so, when in reality there were a few games where Lamar went absolutely nuts out of the spread and it skewed the stats, nobody is arguing the ravens should run spread all day in 2020. The analytics suggest that all offenses are more efficient when passing on first down, we don’t actually believe that’s the case with these ravens do we? Sometimes the analytics need context. This team should never have to air it out unless it’s in dire circumstances, balance should always be the key, and I’m talking down 14 at the beginning of the 4th quarter we should still be running the ball, because this team can absolutely make that comeback while staying grounded, but you’re supporting airing it out in situations like the chiefs game where we’re down one score in the second quarter, I will just never ever fall in line with that because it’s traditional thinking and all analytics based, this team is anything but traditional

 

[rmcjacket23]

But they aren’t gaining 4-5 yards they’re gashing across all gaps for 10+ yards routinely, they have driven the length of the field with nearly all run plays in a matter of minutes and they’ve done it many times.

literally no other team runs the ball like the ravens, that’s why it’s non traditional, not because of how often we run, but how effectively and explosively. Lamar and dobbins break 20+ yarders so frequently at this point that we move the ball like a passing offense on the ground.

I just don’t buy the narrative that if we’re down 2 scores or if it’s 3rd and 5 or more that it’s automatically time to air it out.

You can’t quantify every single aspect of football with analytics, last year the theory was that the ravens offense was at its best in the spread because analytics said so, when in reality there were a few games where Lamar went absolutely nuts out of the spread and it skewed the stats, nobody is arguing the ravens should run spread all day in 2020. The analytics suggest that all offenses are more efficient when passing on first down, we don’t actually believe that’s the case with these ravens do we? Sometimes the analytics need context. This team should never have to air it out unless it’s in dire circumstances, balance should always be the key, and I’m talking down 14 at the beginning of the 4th quarter we should still be running the ball, because this team can absolutely make that comeback while staying grounded, but you’re supporting airing it out in situations like the chiefs game where we’re down one score in the second quarter, I will just never ever fall in line with that because it’s traditional thinking and all analytics based, this team is anything but traditional

I didn't conjure 4-5 yards out of thin air. 5.5 yards is the average run in this Ravens offense. Seems like a very natural place to start. If they were gaining 10 yards on every run, then why isn't their average 10 yards or better? Answer... because they're not getting 10 yards on every run. They're averaging 5.5 yards per run. For every run of 10+ yards, there's a couple runs that are a yard or two. That's how averages work.

This notion that the Ravens just line up against every team, and against all resistance, and just break off 10 yard runs whenever they feel like it isn't rooted in fact. They CAN do it, but its not consistent, nor is it something that's guaranteed. They have more 1-2 yard or less runs than they do 10 yard runs. One is just as likely to happen as another.

Not every game is against Cincinnati, or Dallas, or Jacksonville. You face teams that actually offer resistance, like we did Tennessee last year. Those chunk runs didn't happen in the first quarter when the game was close. They didn't happen in the second quarter when the game was close. If they started happening once you're down 15 points in the second half, its only a matter of time before the defense decides to stop it again.

The Tennessee lost wasn't due to ineffective play calling. The people that think it was are developing that opinion from a position of pretending like playing Tennessee is the same as playing every other team. It was ineffective running, turnovers, dropped passes, failure to convert short yardage in critical spots, and Tennessee capitalizing on nearly all of our offensive mistakes.

I actually hope one day the Ravens do what you suggest. I hope they're down like 15 points in the early 4th quarter, and they just go out and run their normal offense as if nothing is even wrong. And we'll go down and maybe score a TD, or get held to a FG, after a 4-5 minute drive. And then the other team will get the ball, probably drive some, rinse, repeat.

And you'll get down to the last minute or so of the game, and the Ravens will be down two scores still, and you'll realize "o crap, we're out of time". And then you'll be begging for urgency, hurry up offense, etc.

I'm not even suggesting you can't ever run the ball when you're down two scores. But if you're expecting some kind of 50/50 balance or a run-heavy approach when the clock is against you, good luck with that. It's not going to translate into wins.

 

[JoeyFlex5]

I didn't conjure 4-5 yards out of thin air. 5.5 yards is the average run in this Ravens offense. Seems like a very natural place to start. If they were gaining 10 yards on every run, then why isn't their average 10 yards or better? Answer... because they're not getting 10 yards on every run. They're averaging 5.5 yards per run. For every run of 10+ yards, there's a couple runs that are a yard or two. That's how averages work.

This notion that the Ravens just line up against every team, and against all resistance, and just break off 10 yard runs whenever they feel like it isn't rooted in fact. They CAN do it, but its not consistent, nor is it something that's guaranteed. They have more 1-2 yard or less runs than they do 10 yard runs. One is just as likely to happen as another.

Not every game is against Cincinnati, or Dallas, or Jacksonville. You face teams that actually offer resistance, like we did Tennessee last year. Those chunk runs didn't happen in the first quarter when the game was close. They didn't happen in the second quarter when the game was close. If they started happening once you're down 15 points in the second half, its only a matter of time before the defense decides to stop it again.

The Tennessee lost wasn't due to ineffective play calling. The people that think it was are developing that opinion from a position of pretending like playing Tennessee is the same as playing every other team. It was ineffective running, turnovers, dropped passes, failure to convert short yardage in critical spots, and Tennessee capitalizing on nearly all of our offensive mistakes.

I actually hope one day the Ravens do what you suggest. I hope they're down like 15 points in the early 4th quarter, and they just go out and run their normal offense as if nothing is even wrong. And we'll go down and maybe score a TD, or get held to a FG, after a 4-5 minute drive. And then the other team will get the ball, probably drive some, rinse, repeat.

And you'll get down to the last minute or so of the game, and the Ravens will be down two scores still, and you'll realize "o crap, we're out of time". And then you'll be begging for urgency, hurry up offense, etc.

I'm not even suggesting you can't ever run the ball when you're down two scores. But if you're expecting some kind of 50/50 balance or a run-heavy approach when the clock is against you, good luck with that. It's not going to translate into wins.

I didn’t say they average 10 YPC, I said they break off 10+ yarders routinely, which is rooted in fact, so there you go, hard analytics again with no context, this team runs for 5YPC so running while down on the scoreboard is futile.

I also don’t suggest long methodical drives while down 2 scores, there’s not a fine line between 2 minute offense and 4 minute offense, there’s a whole shitload of middle ground between them, you don’t have to air it out as soon as you’re down, you don’t have to grind out 8 minute drives every time you wanna stay balanced.

 

[rmcjacket23]

I didn’t say they average 10 YPC, I said they break off 10+ yarders routinely, which is rooted in fact, so there you go, hard analytics again with no context, this team runs for 5YPC so running while down on the scoreboard is futile.

I also don’t suggest long methodical drives while down 2 scores, there’s not a fine line between 2 minute offense and 4 minute offense, there’s a whole shitload of middle ground between them, you don’t have to air it out as soon as you’re down, you don’t have to grind out 8 minute drives every time you wanna stay balanced.

No, running while down on the scoreboard isn't futile. Running the same offense we run (even if its "non traditional") and expecting the same output when you're down 2-3 scores is futile, just because it worked when you weren't down 2-3 scores.

The context that I think you're missing is that you seem to think we can just decide what we want to do and execute on it whenever we feel like it. I would think, if nothing else, the Tennessee game shows you that we can't. You can run up-tempo and be "balanced" and still end up punting after having the ball for less than 2 minutes. That's certainly possible in this offense. The reason teams go pass-heavy in these types of spots is because, even in this offense, the average pass completion gets at least double the yardage of the average running play. And an incompletion, which gets no yardage, at least stops the clock, as opposed to a running play which gains no yardage, which doesn't. THAT is why teams throw in that spot, and even run-heavy teams do. Because a failed pass attempt stops the clock, and a completed pass attempt, on average, is going to gain significantly more yardage than a running play will. And when you're down 2-3 scores in the 2nd half, the clock is almost as important as your ability to matriculate the ball down the field and score.

 

[JoeyFlex5]

No, running while down on the scoreboard isn't futile. Running the same offense we run (even if its "non traditional") and expecting the same output when you're down 2-3 scores is futile, just because it worked when you weren't down 2-3 scores.

The context that I think you're missing is that you seem to think we can just decide what we want to do and execute on it whenever we feel like it. I would think, if nothing else, the Tennessee game shows you that we can't. You can run up-tempo and be "balanced" and still end up punting after having the ball for less than 2 minutes. That's certainly possible in this offense. The reason teams go pass-heavy in these types of spots is because, even in this offense, the average pass completion gets at least double the yardage of the average running play. And an incompletion, which gets no yardage, at least stops the clock, as opposed to a running play which gains no yardage, which doesn't. THAT is why teams throw in that spot, and even run-heavy teams do. Because a failed pass attempt stops the clock, and a completed pass attempt, on average, is going to gain significantly more yardage than a running play will. And when you're down 2-3 scores in the 2nd half, the clock is almost as important as your ability to matriculate the ball down the field and score.

I understand that, I know how football works lol, but see you clearly think I’m only talking about when were in desperation mode, I’m talking about the entire game, because we have went pass happy at times where it just absolutely makes no sense, against KC this year and last year, and Tennessee in the playoffs we went spread and pass heavy almost immediately, against the Eagles and the first game against the bengals we got way too pass happy and the offense looked like absolute shit and we had the lead and it was like wtf are you guys doing, it’s a thing that has happened in a number of games, airing it out when it just doesn’t make sense, it’s not like this is some imaginary thing fans have made up, when the ravens commit to the run (and the OL doesn’t suck) they absolutely roll tf over teams, it’s not a coincidence, we have gotten away from that too many times over the past 2 years.

the past 5 weeks the OL has done better and we have executed much better overall, but the biggest difference in this offense is that with Lamar, gus, and dobbins, we are cranking out explosive runs constantly.

 

[rossihunter2]

I’m so happy Prime was a Raven

not sure i agree with his take on "the kids" here lol