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The Random Thought Thread

rmcjacket23

Ravens Ring of Honor
but the statistics say the complete opposite of this - false accusations make up a minuscule number of sexual assault, sexual harassment and rape cases - an almost negligible number are affected by those false accusations - it's incredibly unlikely for a false accusation to ever succeed in a case because it's already immensely difficult for actual survivors of sexual violence to even get to court in the first place...

on the other hand, the number of incidents of sexual violence that are successfully tried is a ridiculously low number - the amount of hurdles that survivors have to jump through just to get to court let alone actually win is immense and leads to under-reporting, lack of trust in the justice system and accusations of being a "false accuser" when convictions don't happen...

for a case to actually make it to some sort of legitimate criminal charge or court appearance is so difficult

so while you're right that it's possible all these things could be happening - the statistics are very much more in his favour than yours and to assume the women are blackmailing him in some way is fine if that's how you personally want to go about it but as a journalist it's irresponsible and ignores the wider issues of rape culture

at some point, sports journalism and sports in general has to catch up to other industries that have somewhat changed after "me too" (albeit nowhere near enough) - but sports has largely escaped that shift
This may be true at a macro level, but people have long since been scrutinizing the "data" involved in these types of analysis as "incomplete" on many levels. For starters, many false accusations never get to "court" or even to the legal level, because of the lack of evidence required to even get an arrest or to get a court to listen to arguments. The "data" in these statistical samples only reflect false accusation that were deemed to false through some sort of legal action. Basically, it generally doesn't involve somebody publicly or privately threatening to sue, tarnishing character, etc.

This also involves the vast number of civil settlements, which also come with NDA's, that involve no criminal chargers whatsoever, and became of the settlement agreements, isn't being disclosed to anybody. You could argue that covers both sides of the coin, but its also not exactly uncommon for a high profile person to pay somebody to simply shut up, despite doing nothing wrong. Especially if that amount is significantly less than the time and legal hassle of defending the nuisance.

In reality though, the statistical likelihood in this case doesn't really matter. There has already been a very public figurative and literal trial of rich people going to court over sexual assault charges that simply never occurred. If it happens even one time in the mass media, it's time to stop presuming guilt until proven innocence.

Now, I'd be the first to tell you that my line of thinking may be somewhat naïve. Because the court of public opinion, which is really what matters more than anything in situations like these, frequently takes a "guilty until proven innocence" stance, and usually is very light on the "caring" part about facts and circumstances.
 

rossihunter2

Staff Member
Moderator
Where are those numbers coming from ?


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recent study by the UN i think - 97% of women in the UK have been sexually harassed with a further 96% saying they didn't report because of a belief it didn't change anything (these numbers have been highlighted in recent weeks because we just had a major public outpouring after a women was kidnapped and murdered with an off-duty police officer having been charged)

obviously that's the UK not the US but unlikely the 2 figures are much different - im sure those equivalent stats and studies will be readily available
 

redrum52

Hall of Famer
recent study by the UN i think - 97% of women in the UK have been sexually harassed with a further 96% saying they didn't report because of a belief it didn't change anything (these numbers have been highlighted in recent weeks because we just had a major public outpouring after a women was kidnapped and murdered with an off-duty police officer having been charged)

obviously that's the UK not the US but unlikely the 2 figures are much different - im sure those equivalent stats and studies will be readily available



I have a feeling that if men reported a lot of the behavior deemed "harassment" the numbers would be higher for them.
 

BoredMarine13

Ravens Ring of Honor
recent study by the UN i think - 97% of women in the UK have been sexually harassed with a further 96% saying they didn't report because of a belief it didn't change anything (these numbers have been highlighted in recent weeks because we just had a major public outpouring after a women was kidnapped and murdered with an off-duty police officer having been charged)

obviously that's the UK not the US but unlikely the 2 figures are much different - im sure those equivalent stats and studies will be readily available

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mashable.com/article/sexual-harassment-un-women-uk.amp

The problem is the study is bought and paid for by UN Women UK. No doubt some truth to it but another published research finding that aims for a certain result even if it’s a false positive.


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rossihunter2

Staff Member
Moderator
https://www.google.com/amp/s/mashable.com/article/sexual-harassment-un-women-uk.amp

The problem is the study is bought and paid for by UN Women UK. No doubt some truth to it but another published research finding that aims for a certain result even if it’s a false positive.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

it is not the first nor the last study that suggests the statistics are at least somewhat similarly staggering as this...
i merely mentioned this one because it was the most recent one and the 97% number has been widely accepted by society at large within my country...

and there's a big difference between a study creating a false positive vs other similar studies - the recent "race report" in the UK has widely been disparaged both within and without my country for being positively laughable and clearly agenda driven...

not sure what agenda un women could have that could influence the data or the results - what do they get out of a 97% number like that...

and obviously it's purely anecdotal but i must say i find it very easy to believe that number...
 

Ludy51

Hall of Famer
Logging on to the website today like...
197ffed1d81f87b5d7a0d21e27c789d7.gif
 

JoeyFlex5

Hall of Famer
https://www.aol.com/sports/yasiel-puig-denies-totally-false-001000222.html?guccounter=1

Yasiel Puig accused yesterday of sexual assault in 2018, he comes right out and says I have the text messages to prove it was consensual, according to puig she doesn’t want her fiancé to know she did this so she’s calling it assault, and he’s got receipts.

Women. Want. Rich. Athletes. This is why I’m so reluctant to accept this class action lawsuit style of case that’s building against Watson, I don’t buy the AB allegations because just based on the story everything except for the non consensual part sounded made up and for the same reasons as this puig case.

And men like me aren’t the reason people don’t believe rape survivors, questions aren’t raised because I’m out here shouting to the world to not believe rape survivors(I’m not), questions are raised because this kind of shit happens ALL THE TIME with rich athletes and young men with bright futures and a lot to lose.

the difference between an athletes life being ruined and not, is often something as simple as saving a text message. What the hell can you do when 3 years later you’re randomly accused of this? Most aren’t saving 3 years of texts, so good for puig.

I’m not gonna keep going on about this, it’s just the timing of it, we were discussing this exact thing the last 2 days and then this comes out and it’s just exhibit A of what I’ve been saying.
 

JO_75

Hall of Famer
By June 1st, Las Vegas will be reopening at 100%. This means the Raiders will be having fans and The Flock take over of Vegas can commennce!
 
By June 1st, Las Vegas will be reopening at 100%. This means the Raiders will be having fans and The Flock take over of Vegas can commennce!

Amazing news! I plan to drive from California and be there!! My wife and mom are Raider fans so it’s works out perfect for me. Also helps that I LOVE Vegas so I can’t wait lol

Any news on the price of tickets tho?
 

rmcjacket23

Ravens Ring of Honor
it is not the first nor the last study that suggests the statistics are at least somewhat similarly staggering as this...
i merely mentioned this one because it was the most recent one and the 97% number has been widely accepted by society at large within my country...

and there's a big difference between a study creating a false positive vs other similar studies - the recent "race report" in the UK has widely been disparaged both within and without my country for being positively laughable and clearly agenda driven...

not sure what agenda un women could have that could influence the data or the results - what do they get out of a 97% number like that...

and obviously it's purely anecdotal but i must say i find it very easy to believe that number...
Right but obviously sexual harassment and sexual abuse are on very different ends of the spectrum in terms of severity. I can believe that a gigantic majority of women THINK that they have been sexually harassed in their lifetime. I also believe that many women treat the definition of "harassment" at the absolute broadest possible levels, and that very few of the said instances would warrant any sort of criminal action... for obvious reasons.
 

rmcjacket23

Ravens Ring of Honor
https://www.aol.com/sports/yasiel-puig-denies-totally-false-001000222.html?guccounter=1

Yasiel Puig accused yesterday of sexual assault in 2018, he comes right out and says I have the text messages to prove it was consensual, according to puig she doesn’t want her fiancé to know she did this so she’s calling it assault, and he’s got receipts.

Women. Want. Rich. Athletes. This is why I’m so reluctant to accept this class action lawsuit style of case that’s building against Watson, I don’t buy the AB allegations because just based on the story everything except for the non consensual part sounded made up and for the same reasons as this puig case.

And men like me aren’t the reason people don’t believe rape survivors, questions aren’t raised because I’m out here shouting to the world to not believe rape survivors(I’m not), questions are raised because this kind of shit happens ALL THE TIME with rich athletes and young men with bright futures and a lot to lose.

the difference between an athletes life being ruined and not, is often something as simple as saving a text message. What the hell can you do when 3 years later you’re randomly accused of this? Most aren’t saving 3 years of texts, so good for puig.

I’m not gonna keep going on about this, it’s just the timing of it, we were discussing this exact thing the last 2 days and then this comes out and it’s just exhibit A of what I’ve been saying.
While I agree with the overall premise, there are two things that I think are very hard to reconcile in this particular instance:
1. The sheer volume of women who are willing to go to court over this, and seemingly, based on yesterday's info, willing to put their name on it to do it. That's not necessarily a guilty action in my eyes based on volume, but I don't recall ever seeing somebody with this "fame" having this many complaints about him and not being accountable for at least some of them.
2. I'll steal this one from Colin Cowherd again, because I think he hit it right on the head... it's very, very, very, very rare for an NFL athlete to solicit so many massages from so many women in different areas. Most pro athletes that play at his level threat their bodies with exceptional care. Without their bodies, they're essentially nothing.
The Texans have a training staff and, from what I read, multiple masseuses essentially on-call for NFL athletes. I don't know for sure, but I'd be willing to bet they're better at massage therapy than literally anybody Watson is going to find on instagram, twitter, or wherever the hell he found these women.
Most pro athletes would never let a whole bunch of different people touch their body. Guys with that much money and that much interest in their body typically have a small group of people who are allowed to work on them. The only reason anybody can think of why this would make sense is for one reason... sex.

Now, whether what he did rises to the level of criminal is a whole different story. But I think its getting borderline impossible (and his lawyer has largely stopped trying) to use a defense in this situation that involves "I'm an athlete who likes massages".
 

rmcjacket23

Ravens Ring of Honor
Amazing news! I plan to drive from California and be there!! My wife and mom are Raider fans so it’s works out perfect for me. Also helps that I LOVE Vegas so I can’t wait lol

Any news on the price of tickets tho?
I priced tickets pre-pandemic last year for a Raiders game in the fall (which obviously wasn't against the Ravens). I think nose-bleed seats in the corners of the upper deck could be had for 300-400. It was 500-600 if you wanted upper deck, mid-field. I never bothered to look lower.
 

JoeyFlex5

Hall of Famer
While I agree with the overall premise, there are two things that I think are very hard to reconcile in this particular instance:
1. The sheer volume of women who are willing to go to court over this, and seemingly, based on yesterday's info, willing to put their name on it to do it. That's not necessarily a guilty action in my eyes based on volume, but I don't recall ever seeing somebody with this "fame" having this many complaints about him and not being accountable for at least some of them.
2. I'll steal this one from Colin Cowherd again, because I think he hit it right on the head... it's very, very, very, very rare for an NFL athlete to solicit so many massages from so many women in different areas. Most pro athletes that play at his level threat their bodies with exceptional care. Without their bodies, they're essentially nothing.
The Texans have a training staff and, from what I read, multiple masseuses essentially on-call for NFL athletes. I don't know for sure, but I'd be willing to bet they're better at massage therapy than literally anybody Watson is going to find on instagram, twitter, or wherever the hell he found these women.
Most pro athletes would never let a whole bunch of different people touch their body. Guys with that much money and that much interest in their body typically have a small group of people who are allowed to work on them. The only reason anybody can think of why this would make sense is for one reason... sex.

Now, whether what he did rises to the level of criminal is a whole different story. But I think its getting borderline impossible (and his lawyer has largely stopped trying) to use a defense in this situation that involves "I'm an athlete who likes massages".
This is true and I’m also not absolving Watson of all guilt, I just hate how the court of public opinion convicts people the second any kind of news breaks, and I also felt that the timing of it all was very odd, I don’t want to speculate on outlandish shit, but can we really put it past the Texans front office to formulate a scheme with the way Watson was speaking out? That organization is pretty widely regarded to be toxic as fuck, and after the WFT scandals I would never put it past a lowly franchise with shitty ownership like the Texans.
 

rmcjacket23

Ravens Ring of Honor
This is true and I’m also not absolving Watson of all guilt, I just hate how the court of public opinion convicts people the second any kind of news breaks, and I also felt that the timing of it all was very odd, I don’t want to speculate on outlandish shit, but can we really put it past the Texans front office to formulate a scheme with the way Watson was speaking out? That organization is pretty widely regarded to be toxic as fuck, and after the WFT scandals I would never put it past a lowly franchise with shitty ownership like the Texans.
I mean... I don't see what the Texans gain from it. They can't trade him now even if they wanted to, and if they wanted to mend fences and salvage the relationship, this certainly can't help.

Plus, the legal system will take care of it in due time one way or another, so once that's over, it'll likely be business as normal.
 

rossihunter2

Staff Member
Moderator
Right but obviously sexual harassment and sexual abuse are on very different ends of the spectrum in terms of severity. I can believe that a gigantic majority of women THINK that they have been sexually harassed in their lifetime. I also believe that many women treat the definition of "harassment" at the absolute broadest possible levels, and that very few of the said instances would warrant any sort of criminal action... for obvious reasons.

that's just one statistic of course - it's just indicative of how large the scale is and how utile women see the legal systems as being with regards to dealing with sexual violence

other recent studies (again UK but hard to imagine the percentages will be much different elsewhere - this one is from 2017) have 20% of women having survived sexual assault since they were 16 (so doesn't even include any statistics relating to children) and 3.1% of women aged between 16-59 report having survived sexual assault in the previous year

lots of lots of statistics abound but globally it seems like the accepted figures are somewhere between 1 in 3 and 1 in 5 women experience sexual violence (without including "harassment")
 
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