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The Random Thought Thread

I still think they made the right choice. Chances of a team driving into FG range with 19 seconds and no timeouts are so slim. Cover the deep half and the sidelines and you’re set. But they fucked that up AND added a penalty on top it it. 999/1000 times you win in that situation. Tonight was that one time.

And especially with the Raiders defense. Give the Dolphins a minute to drive and get a TD... I’d say the odds are exponentially higher.
Gonna have to disagree with you. I was fine with it for the first two downs, but taking a knee to run off some clock when you are only going to be up by 2 points AND with a kicker who just missed an extra point isn't the way to play, imo.
 
With the Colts being banged up on the O line, the Steelers front should give Rivers issues.

Hopefully, it’s a get-right game for Pit.

Cant believe I just said that
 
If we don’t get into the playoffs , we can thank Chucky and his group of defensive dimwits for this preposterous loss !

Lookin at you Pats loss... If we don't make it remember the leads we gave up in the Steelers and Titans games with the embarrassing loss in NE.
 
Gonna have to disagree with you. I was fine with it for the first two downs, but taking a knee to run off some clock when you are only going to be up by 2 points AND with a kicker who just missed an extra point isn't the way to play, imo.

Again, odds say differently. Just the perfect storm tonight of randomness that led to that loss. You had a CB that got caught staring into the flat for no apparent reason and a dumb ass penalty. 99.99% of the time you walk out with a W. Odds are much less putting that defense on the field and asking them to stop a TD with about 1 minute on the clock. I understand the “playing scared” aspect but the analytics would push strongly to go for the FG. Just pure unfortunate circumstance and players not executing.
 
With the Colts being banged up on the O line, the Steelers front should give Rivers issues.

Hopefully, it’s a get-right game for Pit.

Cant believe I just said that
I know, tell me about it. If the Steelers win against the Colts, the Bills may end up playing starters vs the Dolphins. It would give us a couple chances to get a higher seed than the 7th seed.
 
Lookin at you Pats loss... If we don't make it remember the leads we gave up in the Steelers and Titans games with the embarrassing loss in NE.
Yeah I agree but to not get in to the playoffs at 11-5 which is where we should be would be really unusual. I guess it’s happened before in NFL history but I can’t recall it.
 
Again, odds say differently. Just the perfect storm tonight of randomness that led to that loss. You had a CB that got caught staring into the flat for no apparent reason and a dumb ass penalty. 99.99% of the time you walk out with a W. Odds are much less putting that defense on the field and asking them to stop a TD with about 1 minute on the clock. I understand the “playing scared” aspect but the analytics would push strongly to go for the FG. Just pure unfortunate circumstance and players not executing.
I'm a big proponent for analytics and your probably right that analytics say to do that, but they aren't taking into account needing to go down the field with 19 seconds left to score a TD vs. getting into fg range vs the Raiders poor defense. Analytics aren't the end all be all.

Use up the clock on 1st and 2nd and then on 3rd down get that touchdown. That's how I would have played it. If they didn't get it so be it, they could go for the fg on 4th down.
 
I'm a big proponent for analytics and your probably right that analytics say to do that, but they aren't taking into account needing to go down the field with 19 seconds left to score a TD vs. getting into fg range vs the Raiders poor defense. Analytics aren't the end all be all.

But if they score on 3rd and 1 instead of taking a knee, they have about 1 minute left on the clock to drive down the field, not 19 seconds. The knee ran the clock down.

With 19 seconds on the clock and no timeouts, all you have to do is force one tackle in the middle of the field. Cover the sidelines. Cover the deep half. Poor execution plus the penalty did them in. You get a tackle anywhere and they have a Hail Mary or lateral play in their back pocket and that’s it.
 
But if they score on 3rd and 1 instead of taking a knee, they have about 1 minute left on the clock to drive down the field, not 19 seconds. The knee ran the clock down.

With 19 seconds on the clock and no timeouts, all you have to do is force one tackle in the middle of the field. Cover the sidelines. Cover the deep half. Poor execution plus the penalty did them in. You get a tackle anywhere and they have a Hail Mary or lateral play in their back pocket and that’s it.
I know, but they still need a TD and if the Raiders went for two, which they would have, then the Dolphins probably would have only tied it with a TD. I understand the analytics but I'm happier with the TD. Now I wouldn't have felt safe if they got the td on 1st or 2nd down.
 
I know, but they still need a TD and if the Raiders went for two, which they would have, then the Dolphins probably would have only tied it with a TD. I understand the analytics but I'm happier with the TD. Now I wouldn't have felt safe if they got the td on 1st or 2nd down.

I think damn near every coach in the league would have put their defense out there with 19 seconds and no timeouts for a FG vs. 1 minute for a TD. You literally need 1 stop in bounds or to prevent the 15-20 yard chunks on the sideline. Execute once and you win. Hindsight is 20/20 and things just went as poorly as they possibly could. But you put Gruden or any coach in that situation again? I bet they do the same thing again.
 
If we don’t get into the playoffs , we can thank Chucky and his group of defensive dimwits for this preposterous loss !

I get the sentiment and it does suck that it’s 2020 and Jon Gruden isn’t a good coach anymore, but it is the Ravens fault they’ll possibly miss playoffs at 11-5. They had/have one of the easiest schedules in the league. They can’t really take off the month of November and then spend December complaining that the Raiders/Steelers can’t/won’t help them out down the stretch.
 
I know, but they still need a TD and if the Raiders went for two, which they would have, then the Dolphins probably would have only tied it with a TD. I understand the analytics but I'm happier with the TD. Now I wouldn't have felt safe if they got the td on 1st or 2nd down.

This. They had killed the TO. Try to get the td on 3rd. My other problem is how penalty happy the refs are. If they were up the full 3 I'm good with it. Not in that situation.
 
Holy.

You have the ball on the 1 and decide to kick a field goal. The Raiders did this twice and left 8pts on the table.

That one really hurts.

The Dolphins are a great story and all, but they are playing way over their heads IMO. Too bad the Ravens didn’t play them this season

the raiders did not convert a single 3rd down through 4 quarters
 
Again, odds say differently. Just the perfect storm tonight of randomness that led to that loss. You had a CB that got caught staring into the flat for no apparent reason and a dumb ass penalty. 99.99% of the time you walk out with a W. Odds are much less putting that defense on the field and asking them to stop a TD with about 1 minute on the clock. I understand the “playing scared” aspect but the analytics would push strongly to go for the FG. Just pure unfortunate circumstance and players not executing.

it's just frustrating with the texans fumbling twice inside the 5 in consecutive games against the colts and this game too

the fact that not one of these scenarios have gone our way despite reasonably at least one of them should have
 
But if they score on 3rd and 1 instead of taking a knee, they have about 1 minute left on the clock to drive down the field, not 19 seconds. The knee ran the clock down.

With 19 seconds on the clock and no timeouts, all you have to do is force one tackle in the middle of the field. Cover the sidelines. Cover the deep half. Poor execution plus the penalty did them in. You get a tackle anywhere and they have a Hail Mary or lateral play in their back pocket and that’s it.

the other thought though is that if you score a TD they have to go 40 yds further with only 40 seconds extra clock
 
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