Next Up: @ Bills (Divisional Round)

[redrum52]

I think Justin should see more snaps this game.

 

[JoeyFlex5]

Yeldon will likely be playing and he is a really good pass catching back but unsure how much playing time he will get. Bills typically use their backs for pass pro more than anything tho. The key will be if you can get there on the blitzes...advanced metrics seem to suggest the Ravens have struggled with that this year.

If they can't get there it is going to be a long day in coverage. The closest any team had at having success with this style was Pittsburgh, who statistically is a much better pass rushing team than the Ravens in basically every metric. Once they actually decided to block Heyward who was single handedly wrecking the gameplan most of the first half they torched them.

Will be interesting to see if Stills is active for this to give another deep threat to threaten them downfield other than Brown. Diggs can, but he usually runs intermediate routes.

the ravens corners have been a carousel of injuries and Covid for most of the season and literally for the first time since September have we had our top 4 corners in.

I’ll be honest, I think it’s gonna be less blitz crazy and more 4-5 man rushes from here on out, lots of window dressing from the defense and the panic will come from the confusion of who drops and who doesn’t, but that doesn’t mean there’s nobody dropping and your receivers are all on an island.

that was quite literally the adjustment that turned the WC game for the ravens, they began shading safeties and mixing up coverages so aj brown wasn’t streaking down the sideline with nobody up top.

I also am not convinced you can beat this ravens team exclusively by airing it out, they are built for that, a balanced attack to draw in the LBs and safeties on PA is how the chiefs and titans always gave the ravens the shits, Andy Reid can freeze a LB/S better than any coach I’ve ever seen, I’m not sure the bills have the horses to fully air it out all day against this team as a winning gameplan

 

[Ludy51]

I think Justin should see more snaps this game.

Personally I think he should stick to playing kicker

 

[ravenslord]

The Bills are Ravens IMO are pretty evenly matched. Because of that I think the turnover battle will decide who wins this one.

I just hope its the Ravens who win it.

 

[Sonyab1974]

What the hell is up with these cocky ass Bills fans coming in here today? Good lord

I'm not being cocky. I'm being nice. There are some nice Ravens fans here. I feel very welcome. I like it here.

 

[JoeyFlex5]

I'm not being cocky. I'm being nice. There are some nice Ravens fans here. I feel very welcome. I like it here.

Not you lol, and tbh I don’t think this guy Matt is particularly cocky either, no more than we are lol, he’s just telling us why he likes his teams chances and we’re responding with more of the same

 

[UPennChem]

I will admit that I have not watched a ton of Buffalo this year. That being said I have seen some, and a lot of the highlights and the such. They're a good team, but what I saw specifically against Indy was really not impressive to me. I like our ability to run on them and I don't think they'll run on us. I think it all comes down to limiting their passing attack, but even more so, Lamar just not chucking it deep on first down for interceptions. We've seen that like 4 times this year and I'm not a fan lol.

 

[JoeyFlex5]

I will admit that I have not watched a ton of Buffalo this year. That being said I have seen some, and a lot of the highlights and the such. They're a good team, but what I saw specifically against Indy was really not impressive to me. I like our ability to run on them and I don't think they'll run on us. I think it all comes down to limiting their passing attack, but even more so, Lamar just not chucking it deep on first down for interceptions. We've seen that like 4 times this year and I'm not a fan lol.

Yeah, I’m really getting annoyed with Lamar punting on first down every time we play a good team.

 

[Deebo813]

Hey, BillsMafia member here! Looking forward to the game, should be an exciting matchup and will vault one of the 2 QBs from the 2018 class into the AFC Championship game.

One point I want to make in regards to your comment is that the Bills have thrived against teams that employ a similar type of defense as the Ravens do. Allen has destroyed man coverage this year and has been the most blitzed QB in the NFL, and it works at times but the Bills have been exceptional at picking up blitzes all year long, and especially the RB's, whose main job in this offense in blitz pickup/pass pro.

Zack Moss is going to be a huge loss in this game for that reason. He has been amazing at this and stonewalls his defender most times. Singletary has been really good as well, but more often dose just enough to give Allen time to get the throw off. The dropoff will likely be with either TJ Yeldon or Antonio Williams.

Just to throw some stats out there against teams that played a similar style as the Ravens(blitz and man coverage), Allen was 121 of 174(69.5% completion) for 1,603 yards, 16 TDs, 3 INTs and 2 more rushing TDs with a QB Rating of 121.9. These teams were Miami(twice, although he only played the first half against Miami in the 2nd game), Seattle, LA Rams, Pittsburgh. In those games, the Bills averaged 38.4 points per game and Allen averaged 356 yards passing, twice going for over 400.

In charting data against just Man Coverage(blitz/no blitz), Allen has 26 TDs against 2 INTs and the highest rating in the NFL.

Also to note, the Bills have played top 10 defenses 5 times this year --- LA Rams(1), Pittsburgh(3), San Fran(5), Colts(7), Chargers(10) and are 5-0, averaging 29.8 points a game.

Against top 10 pass defenses(LA Rams(1), Pittsburgh(3), San Fran(4), New England(7--twice), LA Chargers(9), Arizona(10)) the Bills are 6-1 with the only loss coming on the "Hail Murray" and average 30.6 points a game. Allen stats in these games: 168 of 243(69.1%) for 1,839 yards, 17 TDs and 6 INTs with a passer rating of 104.3.

Just pointing out that no matter what way you want to slice it, Allen has excelled against top defenses(Miami entered week 17 with the #1 scoring defense in the NFL and we hung 56 points on them) and while I understand your confidence in your defensive play, that has not been a recipe for success against the Bills and especially Josh Allen this year, especially with the style of defense the Ravens employ.

Look for a lot of deep over routes that feature the Bills WRs running across the field and away from the defender in the 15-25 yard range and a lot of deep comebacks with Diggs and Brown threatening the defense deep and when they turn and run, they snap off the route and pickup 15-20 yards. Allen's arm strength makes these almost impossible to defend because the ball gets there so fast and his anticipation has become so good.

Beasley is the security blanket across the middle and a big reason why the Bills are the #1 team in the NFL at converting 3rd downs. Knox is an athletic but still inconsistent TE that sometimes has inconsistent hands but can run good seam routes at times. Against Pittsburgh when the Bills were struggling to pick up the blitz in the first half, Knox was used as an H-Bock to help in the 2nd. Look for something similar if the Ravens can cause issues early.

Allen also makes Mahomes like throws a few times a game and has exceptional pocket presence and ability to slide around the pocket and also get outside on the edges away from pressure and make something happen. When he escapes to the right he has been killing teams with deep sideline strikes to WRs that start scrambling with him.

He can be somewhat careless with the ball, especially when running so the Ravens could cause some fumbles if they rip at the ball. He has been a lot better at getting down but Allen can try and do too much at times due to his extreme competitiveness. Sometimes he doesn't know when to stop fighting for an extra yard or two and it can get him into trouble.

Additionally, here are some isseus looking at the advanced metrics I could see for Baltimore:

Ravens blitz the most in the NFL at 44.1%, but they only get pressure 24.0%(11th best) and hurries 9.1%(20th best). They only have 39 sacks on the year, only one more than the Bills. What this seems to indicate is they blitz a lot but don't get there and even worse don't make the QB hurry his throws. I can promise you that if this holds true in this game the secondary is going to get torched. And yes, I understand you have very good corners, but so does Miami and so do the Rams and the Bills threw for 11 TDs in 2.5 games against them.

Bills did a tremendous job at shutting down ravens run game last year but I am very nervous about it because the Bills seem always allow several big runs every game and seemingly have issues shoring up the problem once teams find something that works in game. Also Addison is nowhere near as good as Shaq Lawson was at setting the edge and playing the run so that is definitely a big change from last year. Dream scenario for the Bills would be to get up big early and force the Ravens out of their run game.

Never base an outcome of a game on numbers. So many different aspects are involved.

 

[JAAM]

I'm not being cocky. I'm being nice. There are some nice Ravens fans here. I feel very welcome. I like it here.

I wasn’t talking about you. Get over yourself, Sonya.

Just kidding. Welcome to the board

 

[JAAM]

I will admit that I have not watched a ton of Buffalo this year. That being said I have seen some, and a lot of the highlights and the such. They're a good team, but what I saw specifically against Indy was really not impressive to me. I like our ability to run on them and I don't think they'll run on us. I think it all comes down to limiting their passing attack, but even more so, Lamar just not chucking it deep on first down for interceptions. We've seen that like 4 times this year and I'm not a fan lol.

I have because I had Josh and Stefon in fantasy. They have no run game. Josh is still prone to making stupid decisions like last season. Gabriel Davis is a hell of a deep threat. Cole is pretty much unstoppable in the slot so he needs to be the primary focus after doubling Stefon. Defense is atrocious. We need to control TOP and run it down their throat

 

[Sonyab1974]

I wasn’t talking about you. Get over yourself, Sonya.

Just kidding.

Why you little!!!

Welcome to the board

Thank you!!!

 

[JoeyFlex5]

Hey, BillsMafia member here! Looking forward to the game, should be an exciting matchup and will vault one of the 2 QBs from the 2018 class into the AFC Championship game.

One point I want to make in regards to your comment is that the Bills have thrived against teams that employ a similar type of defense as the Ravens do. Allen has destroyed man coverage this year and has been the most blitzed QB in the NFL, and it works at times but the Bills have been exceptional at picking up blitzes all year long, and especially the RB's, whose main job in this offense in blitz pickup/pass pro.

Zack Moss is going to be a huge loss in this game for that reason. He has been amazing at this and stonewalls his defender most times. Singletary has been really good as well, but more often dose just enough to give Allen time to get the throw off. The dropoff will likely be with either TJ Yeldon or Antonio Williams.

Just to throw some stats out there against teams that played a similar style as the Ravens(blitz and man coverage), Allen was 121 of 174(69.5% completion) for 1,603 yards, 16 TDs, 3 INTs and 2 more rushing TDs with a QB Rating of 121.9. These teams were Miami(twice, although he only played the first half against Miami in the 2nd game), Seattle, LA Rams, Pittsburgh. In those games, the Bills averaged 38.4 points per game and Allen averaged 356 yards passing, twice going for over 400.

In charting data against just Man Coverage(blitz/no blitz), Allen has 26 TDs against 2 INTs and the highest rating in the NFL.

Also to note, the Bills have played top 10 defenses 5 times this year --- LA Rams(1), Pittsburgh(3), San Fran(5), Colts(7), Chargers(10) and are 5-0, averaging 29.8 points a game.

Against top 10 pass defenses(LA Rams(1), Pittsburgh(3), San Fran(4), New England(7--twice), LA Chargers(9), Arizona(10)) the Bills are 6-1 with the only loss coming on the "Hail Murray" and average 30.6 points a game. Allen stats in these games: 168 of 243(69.1%) for 1,839 yards, 17 TDs and 6 INTs with a passer rating of 104.3.

Just pointing out that no matter what way you want to slice it, Allen has excelled against top defenses(Miami entered week 17 with the #1 scoring defense in the NFL and we hung 56 points on them) and while I understand your confidence in your defensive play, that has not been a recipe for success against the Bills and especially Josh Allen this year, especially with the style of defense the Ravens employ.

Look for a lot of deep over routes that feature the Bills WRs running across the field and away from the defender in the 15-25 yard range and a lot of deep comebacks with Diggs and Brown threatening the defense deep and when they turn and run, they snap off the route and pickup 15-20 yards. Allen's arm strength makes these almost impossible to defend because the ball gets there so fast and his anticipation has become so good.

Beasley is the security blanket across the middle and a big reason why the Bills are the #1 team in the NFL at converting 3rd downs. Knox is an athletic but still inconsistent TE that sometimes has inconsistent hands but can run good seam routes at times. Against Pittsburgh when the Bills were struggling to pick up the blitz in the first half, Knox was used as an H-Bock to help in the 2nd. Look for something similar if the Ravens can cause issues early.

Allen also makes Mahomes like throws a few times a game and has exceptional pocket presence and ability to slide around the pocket and also get outside on the edges away from pressure and make something happen. When he escapes to the right he has been killing teams with deep sideline strikes to WRs that start scrambling with him.

He can be somewhat careless with the ball, especially when running so the Ravens could cause some fumbles if they rip at the ball. He has been a lot better at getting down but Allen can try and do too much at times due to his extreme competitiveness. Sometimes he doesn't know when to stop fighting for an extra yard or two and it can get him into trouble.

Additionally, here are some isseus looking at the advanced metrics I could see for Baltimore:

Ravens blitz the most in the NFL at 44.1%, but they only get pressure 24.0%(11th best) and hurries 9.1%(20th best). They only have 39 sacks on the year, only one more than the Bills. What this seems to indicate is they blitz a lot but don't get there and even worse don't make the QB hurry his throws. I can promise you that if this holds true in this game the secondary is going to get torched. And yes, I understand you have very good corners, but so does Miami and so do the Rams and the Bills threw for 11 TDs in 2.5 games against them.

Bills did a tremendous job at shutting down ravens run game last year but I am very nervous about it because the Bills seem always allow several big runs every game and seemingly have issues shoring up the problem once teams find something that works in game. Also Addison is nowhere near as good as Shaq Lawson was at setting the edge and playing the run so that is definitely a big change from last year. Dream scenario for the Bills would be to get up big early and force the Ravens out of their run game.

So you just said 29.8 points per game

You’re putting enough faith in your defense to hold this offense under 30 points? And also not factoring in time of possession?

Empty numbers friend.

 

[RavensMania]

 

[Ludy51]

Hoping for some bad weather to let our teams identity have an advantage

 

[Dom McRaven]

From 2013 to last season, I couldn't STAND the Bills because the times I would root for them they would lose and vice versa. So aggravating. This year, however? My hatred for this team has vanished. Allen has been balling. Why the other purple team gave up Diggs is beyond me. They really have been killing it.

Due to my hatred for the other two teams in the AFC, I'd be okay with rooting for the Bills to rep the AFC in the Super Bowl. Besides, I love Griselda's music so seeing Westside Gunn, Conway, and Benny The Butcher celebrate their team make (and win) it to the Super Bowl is good enough for me.

Welcome to all of the Bills fans who made their way onto our forum.

 

[Matt]

the ravens corners have been a carousel of injuries and Covid for most of the season and literally for the first time since September have we had our top 4 corners in.

I’ll be honest, I think it’s gonna be less blitz crazy and more 4-5 man rushes from here on out, lots of window dressing from the defense and the panic will come from the confusion of who drops and who doesn’t, but that doesn’t mean there’s nobody dropping and your receivers are all on an island.

that was quite literally the adjustment that turned the WC game for the ravens, they began shading safeties and mixing up coverages so aj brown wasn’t streaking down the sideline with nobody up top.

I also am not convinced you can beat this ravens team exclusively by airing it out, they are built for that, a balanced attack to draw in the LBs and safeties on PA is how the chiefs and titans always gave the ravens the shits, Andy Reid can freeze a LB/S better than any coach I’ve ever seen, I’m not sure the bills have the horses to fully air it out all day against this team as a winning gameplan

That would be really smart on the DC's part because we have really beaten up on man coverage no matter who has tried it. Obviously, there are always going to be a mix of coverages, nobody just plays 1 coverage or style of coverage all game long, it is more about tendencies, etc.

Allen was less effective against zones, especially early in the year but he has been pretty good against them since the 2nd half of the year, really understanding and being able to recognize/diagnose the defense and coverages and understanding where to go with the ball against them. Also not trying to force something that isn't there due to his arm strength, which got him into trouble a lot in his first 2 years.

Typically what happens in these situations is the Bills may struggle for the first part of the game until they get a good grasp for what a team is doing, and then they will start moving the ball and picking up chunk plays. The longer you can delay that from happening, the better. Steelers delayed it most of the first half because we kept Allowing Heyward to wreck the gameplan, but once we doubled him and put Knox in at H-Back for additional blocking, Allen started dissecting them. Also, against zone, containing Allen in the pocket is huge. Zones typically break down the longer the play goes and Allen outside the pocket and on the move is deadly against zone because our WR's are excellent at finding the soft spot in the zones and staying there and Allen has the arm strength to make a throw to anyplace on the field even when on the run or throwing back across the field, which is usually a big no-no for most QB's because they don't have the velocity to get the ball there.

 

[Matt]

I will admit that I have not watched a ton of Buffalo this year. That being said I have seen some, and a lot of the highlights and the such. They're a good team, but what I saw specifically against Indy was really not impressive to me. I like our ability to run on them and I don't think they'll run on us. I think it all comes down to limiting their passing attack, but even more so, Lamar just not chucking it deep on first down for interceptions. We've seen that like 4 times this year and I'm not a fan lol.

I didn't like our game against Indy either. Bills did really well at limiting Colts on the ground through 3 quarters, holding them to under 3 YPC in the run game but their pass D was getting picked apart by Rivers on 3rd and short to medium because we kept sending pressure but almost never got there. Once we went up by 14, Bills started playing their preferred double high safety to take away deep passes and then the Colts started gashing them on the ground. Bills cannot stop the run with the front 7, they need safety and corner involvement, but when they do this they are highly effective at it. Limited Henry and Jacobs earlier this season to barely over 3 YPC when doing this.

On offense, the Bills simply didn't have many possessions. Indy was very disciplined on defense and rarely blitzed. They played zone and tried to get there with their front 4. Didn't work very often but Allen was patient and was taking 5 yard gains when that was available to him. Allen doesn't like that and wants to push the ball down the field, which gets him in trouble sometimes, but he has been much better at that this year. Allen breaking contain and throwing on the run was killing Indy and will pretty much kill any zone defense, which tends to get weaker the longer the play goes on and especially once WRs start doing scramble drills and the structure of the zone breaks down. Even with all of that, Allen put up a 75% completion percentage, 324 yards and 3 total TDs with no INTs. He was the highest rated QB of the weekend and definitely made the most "wow" plays.

However, that game wasn't some "out of his mind" game that Allen played that he can't duplicate. That is kind of becoming the norm from him. Obviously you would like to not see 90% of the offense go through him where he is the main running threat, but that is kind of he way the gameplan worked out. Daboll is very matchup oriented in terms of what he wants to do on a weekly basis and gameplans can wildly vary week to week depending on who we are playing and where we feel our best matchups are.

The Ravens run D is kind of a moot point in this game. The Bills, unless they feel they have a huge matchup advantage like against the Patriots and Chargers, are mostly disinterested in running the ball. Against good or great run D's they will just not bother and let Allen throw because in general we are exceptional at pass pro and blitz pickup, and Allen has become very good at recognizing, changing plays to get them out of bad playcalls, understanding coverages even when disguised and then making the right throws to the right players. Bills have no issues being 70-30 or maybe even 80-20 at times pass/run.

 

[Matt]

Not you lol, and tbh I don’t think this guy Matt is particularly cocky either, no more than we are lol, he’s just telling us why he likes his teams chances and we’re responding with more of the same

Never my intent to be cocky, I have just watched over and over again that teams playing a similar style of D to the Ravens get burnt badly by Allen, which gives me a lot of confidence that if they play that type of defense the result will be the same. Even the Colts when they tried it for one play and blitzed Allen he made them pay with a 35 yard laser to Diggs for a TD. I understand that most Ravens fans think their corners would prevent that, and you should also be confident if that is what you have seen most of the year.

I think either way it is going to be a great matchup. Both QB's believe they are the baddest MOFO on the field when they play and they both are usually right. This game it might be a toss-up tho. Different styles but both highly effective. The one thing I would say is that if you think what you saw from Allen last year is an indication of what you will get this year, you will be in for a huge surprise. Allen is pretty much able to do what Mahomes can do for KC at QB now and that isn't an understatement. In some ways he has better numbers this year and they are really close in terms of stats, QBR, QB Rating, etc. Allen is actually more accurate, completing almost 70% of his passes which is astounding considering the degree of difficulty many of his passes are...he isn't like Brees or Bridgewater where they complete high numbers because they are throwing 5 or 6 yard passes all day long...Allen is throwing a lot of 15-25 yard passes and making plays on the move. It's been a leap that I am not sure even the most diehard Bills fan could have predicted. But Allen is obsessed with working on flaws and his whole offseason was to work on fixing mechanics that were causing inconsistencies in his throws and in improving his understanding of defenses, recognition, etc. The Allen that steps on the field Saturday is every bit as worthy of being league MVP as Lamar was last year.

 

[Matt]

View attachment 2583

Those numbers go to 26 TDs and 2 INTs against man coverage.