the ravens corners have been a carousel of injuries and Covid for most of the season and literally for the first time since September have we had our top 4 corners in.Yeldon will likely be playing and he is a really good pass catching back but unsure how much playing time he will get. Bills typically use their backs for pass pro more than anything tho. The key will be if you can get there on the blitzes...advanced metrics seem to suggest the Ravens have struggled with that this year.
If they can't get there it is going to be a long day in coverage. The closest any team had at having success with this style was Pittsburgh, who statistically is a much better pass rushing team than the Ravens in basically every metric. Once they actually decided to block Heyward who was single handedly wrecking the gameplan most of the first half they torched them.
Will be interesting to see if Stills is active for this to give another deep threat to threaten them downfield other than Brown. Diggs can, but he usually runs intermediate routes.
Personally I think he should stick to playing kickerI think Justin should see more snaps this game.
What the hell is up with these cocky ass Bills fans coming in here today? Good lord
Not you lol, and tbh I don’t think this guy Matt is particularly cocky either, no more than we are lol, he’s just telling us why he likes his teams chances and we’re responding with more of the sameI'm not being cocky. I'm being nice. There are some nice Ravens fans here. I feel very welcome. I like it here.
Yeah, I’m really getting annoyed with Lamar punting on first down every time we play a good team.I will admit that I have not watched a ton of Buffalo this year. That being said I have seen some, and a lot of the highlights and the such. They're a good team, but what I saw specifically against Indy was really not impressive to me. I like our ability to run on them and I don't think they'll run on us. I think it all comes down to limiting their passing attack, but even more so, Lamar just not chucking it deep on first down for interceptions. We've seen that like 4 times this year and I'm not a fan lol.
Never base an outcome of a game on numbers. So many different aspects are involved.Hey, BillsMafia member here! Looking forward to the game, should be an exciting matchup and will vault one of the 2 QBs from the 2018 class into the AFC Championship game.
One point I want to make in regards to your comment is that the Bills have thrived against teams that employ a similar type of defense as the Ravens do. Allen has destroyed man coverage this year and has been the most blitzed QB in the NFL, and it works at times but the Bills have been exceptional at picking up blitzes all year long, and especially the RB's, whose main job in this offense in blitz pickup/pass pro.
Zack Moss is going to be a huge loss in this game for that reason. He has been amazing at this and stonewalls his defender most times. Singletary has been really good as well, but more often dose just enough to give Allen time to get the throw off. The dropoff will likely be with either TJ Yeldon or Antonio Williams.
Just to throw some stats out there against teams that played a similar style as the Ravens(blitz and man coverage), Allen was 121 of 174(69.5% completion) for 1,603 yards, 16 TDs, 3 INTs and 2 more rushing TDs with a QB Rating of 121.9. These teams were Miami(twice, although he only played the first half against Miami in the 2nd game), Seattle, LA Rams, Pittsburgh. In those games, the Bills averaged 38.4 points per game and Allen averaged 356 yards passing, twice going for over 400.
In charting data against just Man Coverage(blitz/no blitz), Allen has 26 TDs against 2 INTs and the highest rating in the NFL.
Also to note, the Bills have played top 10 defenses 5 times this year --- LA Rams(1), Pittsburgh(3), San Fran(5), Colts(7), Chargers(10) and are 5-0, averaging 29.8 points a game.
Against top 10 pass defenses(LA Rams(1), Pittsburgh(3), San Fran(4), New England(7--twice), LA Chargers(9), Arizona(10)) the Bills are 6-1 with the only loss coming on the "Hail Murray" and average 30.6 points a game. Allen stats in these games: 168 of 243(69.1%) for 1,839 yards, 17 TDs and 6 INTs with a passer rating of 104.3.
Just pointing out that no matter what way you want to slice it, Allen has excelled against top defenses(Miami entered week 17 with the #1 scoring defense in the NFL and we hung 56 points on them) and while I understand your confidence in your defensive play, that has not been a recipe for success against the Bills and especially Josh Allen this year, especially with the style of defense the Ravens employ.
Look for a lot of deep over routes that feature the Bills WRs running across the field and away from the defender in the 15-25 yard range and a lot of deep comebacks with Diggs and Brown threatening the defense deep and when they turn and run, they snap off the route and pickup 15-20 yards. Allen's arm strength makes these almost impossible to defend because the ball gets there so fast and his anticipation has become so good.
Beasley is the security blanket across the middle and a big reason why the Bills are the #1 team in the NFL at converting 3rd downs. Knox is an athletic but still inconsistent TE that sometimes has inconsistent hands but can run good seam routes at times. Against Pittsburgh when the Bills were struggling to pick up the blitz in the first half, Knox was used as an H-Bock to help in the 2nd. Look for something similar if the Ravens can cause issues early.
Allen also makes Mahomes like throws a few times a game and has exceptional pocket presence and ability to slide around the pocket and also get outside on the edges away from pressure and make something happen. When he escapes to the right he has been killing teams with deep sideline strikes to WRs that start scrambling with him.
He can be somewhat careless with the ball, especially when running so the Ravens could cause some fumbles if they rip at the ball. He has been a lot better at getting down but Allen can try and do too much at times due to his extreme competitiveness. Sometimes he doesn't know when to stop fighting for an extra yard or two and it can get him into trouble.
Additionally, here are some isseus looking at the advanced metrics I could see for Baltimore:
Ravens blitz the most in the NFL at 44.1%, but they only get pressure 24.0%(11th best) and hurries 9.1%(20th best). They only have 39 sacks on the year, only one more than the Bills. What this seems to indicate is they blitz a lot but don't get there and even worse don't make the QB hurry his throws. I can promise you that if this holds true in this game the secondary is going to get torched. And yes, I understand you have very good corners, but so does Miami and so do the Rams and the Bills threw for 11 TDs in 2.5 games against them.
Bills did a tremendous job at shutting down ravens run game last year but I am very nervous about it because the Bills seem always allow several big runs every game and seemingly have issues shoring up the problem once teams find something that works in game. Also Addison is nowhere near as good as Shaq Lawson was at setting the edge and playing the run so that is definitely a big change from last year. Dream scenario for the Bills would be to get up big early and force the Ravens out of their run game.
I wasn’t talking about you. Get over yourself, Sonya.I'm not being cocky. I'm being nice. There are some nice Ravens fans here. I feel very welcome. I like it here.
I have because I had Josh and Stefon in fantasy. They have no run game. Josh is still prone to making stupid decisions like last season. Gabriel Davis is a hell of a deep threat. Cole is pretty much unstoppable in the slot so he needs to be the primary focus after doubling Stefon. Defense is atrocious. We need to control TOP and run it down their throatI will admit that I have not watched a ton of Buffalo this year. That being said I have seen some, and a lot of the highlights and the such. They're a good team, but what I saw specifically against Indy was really not impressive to me. I like our ability to run on them and I don't think they'll run on us. I think it all comes down to limiting their passing attack, but even more so, Lamar just not chucking it deep on first down for interceptions. We've seen that like 4 times this year and I'm not a fan lol.
I wasn’t talking about you. Get over yourself, Sonya.
Just kidding.
Welcome to the board
So you just said 29.8 points per gameHey, BillsMafia member here! Looking forward to the game, should be an exciting matchup and will vault one of the 2 QBs from the 2018 class into the AFC Championship game.
One point I want to make in regards to your comment is that the Bills have thrived against teams that employ a similar type of defense as the Ravens do. Allen has destroyed man coverage this year and has been the most blitzed QB in the NFL, and it works at times but the Bills have been exceptional at picking up blitzes all year long, and especially the RB's, whose main job in this offense in blitz pickup/pass pro.
Zack Moss is going to be a huge loss in this game for that reason. He has been amazing at this and stonewalls his defender most times. Singletary has been really good as well, but more often dose just enough to give Allen time to get the throw off. The dropoff will likely be with either TJ Yeldon or Antonio Williams.
Just to throw some stats out there against teams that played a similar style as the Ravens(blitz and man coverage), Allen was 121 of 174(69.5% completion) for 1,603 yards, 16 TDs, 3 INTs and 2 more rushing TDs with a QB Rating of 121.9. These teams were Miami(twice, although he only played the first half against Miami in the 2nd game), Seattle, LA Rams, Pittsburgh. In those games, the Bills averaged 38.4 points per game and Allen averaged 356 yards passing, twice going for over 400.
In charting data against just Man Coverage(blitz/no blitz), Allen has 26 TDs against 2 INTs and the highest rating in the NFL.
Also to note, the Bills have played top 10 defenses 5 times this year --- LA Rams(1), Pittsburgh(3), San Fran(5), Colts(7), Chargers(10) and are 5-0, averaging 29.8 points a game.
Against top 10 pass defenses(LA Rams(1), Pittsburgh(3), San Fran(4), New England(7--twice), LA Chargers(9), Arizona(10)) the Bills are 6-1 with the only loss coming on the "Hail Murray" and average 30.6 points a game. Allen stats in these games: 168 of 243(69.1%) for 1,839 yards, 17 TDs and 6 INTs with a passer rating of 104.3.
Just pointing out that no matter what way you want to slice it, Allen has excelled against top defenses(Miami entered week 17 with the #1 scoring defense in the NFL and we hung 56 points on them) and while I understand your confidence in your defensive play, that has not been a recipe for success against the Bills and especially Josh Allen this year, especially with the style of defense the Ravens employ.
Look for a lot of deep over routes that feature the Bills WRs running across the field and away from the defender in the 15-25 yard range and a lot of deep comebacks with Diggs and Brown threatening the defense deep and when they turn and run, they snap off the route and pickup 15-20 yards. Allen's arm strength makes these almost impossible to defend because the ball gets there so fast and his anticipation has become so good.
Beasley is the security blanket across the middle and a big reason why the Bills are the #1 team in the NFL at converting 3rd downs. Knox is an athletic but still inconsistent TE that sometimes has inconsistent hands but can run good seam routes at times. Against Pittsburgh when the Bills were struggling to pick up the blitz in the first half, Knox was used as an H-Bock to help in the 2nd. Look for something similar if the Ravens can cause issues early.
Allen also makes Mahomes like throws a few times a game and has exceptional pocket presence and ability to slide around the pocket and also get outside on the edges away from pressure and make something happen. When he escapes to the right he has been killing teams with deep sideline strikes to WRs that start scrambling with him.
He can be somewhat careless with the ball, especially when running so the Ravens could cause some fumbles if they rip at the ball. He has been a lot better at getting down but Allen can try and do too much at times due to his extreme competitiveness. Sometimes he doesn't know when to stop fighting for an extra yard or two and it can get him into trouble.
Additionally, here are some isseus looking at the advanced metrics I could see for Baltimore:
Ravens blitz the most in the NFL at 44.1%, but they only get pressure 24.0%(11th best) and hurries 9.1%(20th best). They only have 39 sacks on the year, only one more than the Bills. What this seems to indicate is they blitz a lot but don't get there and even worse don't make the QB hurry his throws. I can promise you that if this holds true in this game the secondary is going to get torched. And yes, I understand you have very good corners, but so does Miami and so do the Rams and the Bills threw for 11 TDs in 2.5 games against them.
Bills did a tremendous job at shutting down ravens run game last year but I am very nervous about it because the Bills seem always allow several big runs every game and seemingly have issues shoring up the problem once teams find something that works in game. Also Addison is nowhere near as good as Shaq Lawson was at setting the edge and playing the run so that is definitely a big change from last year. Dream scenario for the Bills would be to get up big early and force the Ravens out of their run game.
the ravens corners have been a carousel of injuries and Covid for most of the season and literally for the first time since September have we had our top 4 corners in.
I’ll be honest, I think it’s gonna be less blitz crazy and more 4-5 man rushes from here on out, lots of window dressing from the defense and the panic will come from the confusion of who drops and who doesn’t, but that doesn’t mean there’s nobody dropping and your receivers are all on an island.
that was quite literally the adjustment that turned the WC game for the ravens, they began shading safeties and mixing up coverages so aj brown wasn’t streaking down the sideline with nobody up top.
I also am not convinced you can beat this ravens team exclusively by airing it out, they are built for that, a balanced attack to draw in the LBs and safeties on PA is how the chiefs and titans always gave the ravens the shits, Andy Reid can freeze a LB/S better than any coach I’ve ever seen, I’m not sure the bills have the horses to fully air it out all day against this team as a winning gameplan
I will admit that I have not watched a ton of Buffalo this year. That being said I have seen some, and a lot of the highlights and the such. They're a good team, but what I saw specifically against Indy was really not impressive to me. I like our ability to run on them and I don't think they'll run on us. I think it all comes down to limiting their passing attack, but even more so, Lamar just not chucking it deep on first down for interceptions. We've seen that like 4 times this year and I'm not a fan lol.
Not you lol, and tbh I don’t think this guy Matt is particularly cocky either, no more than we are lol, he’s just telling us why he likes his teams chances and we’re responding with more of the same