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2022 General Draft Thoughts

BoredMarine13 said:
I feel good about our chances of landing a great player at 14. I think QB needy teams are going to panic. Sounds like they will have trouble trading back forcing them to take a QB earlier than they should. I can see the Seahawks/Skins/Falcons/Texans taking at least two QBs off the board before 14.
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I honestly see none of those teams taking a QB.

SEA is a good franchise and they aren't going to overdraft a QB.

Washington could but there's been no speculation at all. I feel like if Washington was thinking about it we'd know. They aren't some tight lipped organization.

Falcons are tanking for next year going to improve the OL or WR positions

Texans aren't going to take one of these guys when they have Mills. It's basically the same situation.
 
BoredMarine13 said:
Lack of star power causing teams to bail in the top half of round 1?
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I mean it’s how it should be honestly. Why I’ve been fighting the trade back narrative unless one of the premiere talents drops. A big reason why the guys were discussing at 14 if we have to stick are the same guys we’d want to trade back for. Needs to work for both sides for a trade to happen. And if we want to trade back, there also has to be someone trading up for. Not saying it will or won’t happen but it’s a tougher year since a lot of guys blend together after the top dogs.
 
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Also rumors abound that if a QB run happens this year, it's expected to be at the end of the 1st. Reports out there that teams like but don't love this QB class (as it should be) and there's some wariness about giving up the capital and attaching yourself to a meh guy when you can take a stab at the end of round 1 instead. Apparently teams feel if they miss out on a QB this year, it's not a big deal.

If you asked me, I feel like Carolina is the only team that NEEDS to do something at the position. Steelers, Saints, etc. have at least solid options and can be more patient if they so choose.
 
Simba said:
Also rumors abound that if a QB run happens this year, it's expected to be at the end of the 1st. Reports out there that teams like but don't love this QB class (as it should be) and there's some wariness about giving up the capital and attaching yourself to a meh guy when you can take a stab at the end of round 1 instead. Apparently teams feel if they miss out on a QB this year, it's not a big deal.

If you asked me, I feel like Carolina is the only team that NEEDS to do something at the position. Steelers, Saints, etc. have at least solid options and can be more patient if they so choose.
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This just makes sense. Given this and your other point, do you think this has also in some way made the trade up price somewhat diminished? Maybe we could hop a few spots for just a 4th or something as someone higher up is just looking for any additional draft capital?
 
UPennChem said:
This just makes sense. Given this and your other point, do you think this has also in some way made the trade up price somewhat diminished? Maybe we could hop a few spots for just a 4th or something as someone higher up is just looking for any additional draft capital?
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To an extent. Not sure "just a 4th" gets anything significant done but I can absolutely see a scenario where a team takes a little less to move back than they would in a typical year because those mid-round picks are being treated as gold this year.

Personally, I think a trade up this year for us is much more likely than it has been in recent years for us. If a guy falls to the back of that top 10, we're not prohibited from getting up there. Of course, that assumes what we deem as a top 5 talent is sitting there.
 
Simba said:
To an extent. Not sure "just a 4th" gets anything significant done but I can absolutely see a scenario where a team takes a little less to move back than they would in a typical year because those mid-round picks are being treated as gold this year.

Personally, I think a trade up this year for us is much more likely than it has been in recent years for us. If a guy falls to the back of that top 10, we're not prohibited from getting up there. Of course, that assumes what we deem as a top 5 talent is sitting there.
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Right! I know Schefter says there is not as much desire to trade up but I doubt there will be no trade backs. And I'm not saying you were implying that.

My only point here is there will likely be fewer trade backs and that may mean in the same way if EDC is really intent on moving back he may have to be less stingey with what he wants in return.

So many options to try and balance in real time between trading up, back, or staying put.
 
UPennChem said:
I honestly see none of those teams taking a QB.

SEA is a good franchise and they aren't going to overdraft a QB.

Washington could but there's been no speculation at all. I feel like if Washington was thinking about it we'd know. They aren't some tight lipped organization.

Falcons are tanking for next year going to improve the OL or WR positions

Texans aren't going to take one of these guys when they have Mills. It's basically the same situation.
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I have faith these organization will continue to make the wrong decisions. If they wait to long they also invite some other teams into the mix. Lets face it the QB purgatory creates pressure and doesn't sell many tickets.

The Falcons are one Marcus Mariota injury away from starting Felipe Franks. Wash is desperate for a face of the franchise. Texans are a guarantee to take a QB, likely 13, I don't buy the belief in Mills talk. Does Carolina really want Baker?

I just see a few teams slipping up, combine that with a couple WR off the board early, and I'm thinking a solid pick will fall right in our laps at 14.
 
BoredMarine13 said:
I have faith these organization will continue to make the wrong decisions. If they wait to long they also invite some other teams into the mix. Lets face it the QB purgatory creates pressure and doesn't sell many tickets.

The Falcons are one Marcus Mariota injury away from starting Felipe Franks. Wash is desperate for a face of the franchise. Texans are a guarantee to take a QB, likely 13, I don't buy the belief in Mills talk. Does Carolina really want Baker?

I just see a few teams slipping up, combine that with a couple WR off the board early, and I'm thinking a solid pick will fall right in our laps at 14.
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I hope you're right!!!!
 
UPennChem said:
Right! I know Schefter says there is not as much desire to trade up but I doubt there will be no trade backs. And I'm not saying you were implying that.

My only point here is there will likely be fewer trade backs and that may mean in the same way if EDC is really intent on moving back he may have to be less stingey with what he wants in return.

So many options to try and balance in real time between trading up, back, or staying put.
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Yeah I'd be hard pressed to believe that the top 16 goes in the order they're in now. The one issue with trading back is that if all of these teams are looking to do it, teams have an opportunity to climb higher for virtually the same cost. For instance, let's just say 11-14 are all looking to move back. Chances are that if you're a team looking to move up, the cost isn't going to be that different to get to 11 or 12 than it is to 14 in a market where teams are looking to move back and not many are looking to move up.

Essentially, I think a trade back hinges on 2 potential things...

1. If a Hamilton or Cross or someone like that is there. Of course, that brings up the question of whether or not those types of players are good enough to just stick and make the pick even if the "need" isn't as large for us.

2. We have Philly behind us and that's a prime spot for a WR. If a team wants to beat them, we're in a key spot.
 
Simba said:
Yeah I'd be hard pressed to believe that the top 16 goes in the order they're in now. The one issue with trading back is that if all of these teams are looking to do it, teams have an opportunity to climb higher for virtually the same cost. For instance, let's just say 11-14 are all looking to move back. Chances are that if you're a team looking to move up, the cost isn't going to be that different to get to 11 or 12 than it is to 14 in a market where teams are looking to move back and not many are looking to move up.

Essentially, I think a trade back hinges on 2 potential things...

1. If a Hamilton or Cross or someone like that is there. Of course, that brings up the question of whether or not those types of players are good enough to just stick and make the pick even if the "need" isn't as large for us.

2. We have Philly behind us and that's a prime spot for a WR. If a team wants to beat them, we're in a key spot.
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Yep I was gonna make your second point there. I think we have that going for us. Ultimately the number of QBs, WRs, and wildcard stuff, (Penning, Karlaftis, Linderbaum, Lloyd, Davis etc) that go early are gonna have a huge impact.
 
Simba said:
To an extent. Not sure "just a 4th" gets anything significant done but I can absolutely see a scenario where a team takes a little less to move back than they would in a typical year because those mid-round picks are being treated as gold this year.

Personally, I think a trade up this year for us is much more likely than it has been in recent years for us. If a guy falls to the back of that top 10, we're not prohibited from getting up there. Of course, that assumes what we deem as a top 5 talent is sitting there.
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Moving up in front of the Vikings could be massive. If it takes a 4+6 then give me that shit
 
UPennChem said:
Yep I was gonna make your second point there. I think we have that going for us. Ultimately the number of QBs, WRs, and wildcard stuff, (Penning, Karlaftis, Linderbaum, Lloyd, Davis etc) that go early are gonna have a huge impact.
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Exactly. I think we're starting to get confidence that some of these reports of top guys falling was probably just fabricated more than anything, which is both a good thing and a bad thing. Sure, the top talent might not make it down to 14. But if those guys go where they should go, that puts more pressure on that 8-15 range and we know some teams are going to reach for guys if there isn't a trade deal to be made. We might not get that top 5 talent in this scenario but it helps us get a top 10 talent.
 
Simba said:
Exactly. I think we're starting to get confidence that some of these reports of top guys falling was probably just fabricated more than anything, which is both a good thing and a bad thing. Sure, the top talent might not make it down to 14. But if those guys go where they should go, that puts more pressure on that 8-15 range and we know some teams are going to reach for guys if there isn't a trade deal to be made. We might not get that top 5 talent in this scenario but it helps us get a top 10 talent.
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Well said!
 
JoeyFlex5 said:
Moving up in front of the Vikings could be massive. If it takes a 4+6 then give me that shit
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I still think you're looking at a 3 minimum but it could be the later 3 and nobody bats an eye that it's well below market value this year.
 
I also think the Saints are about to fuck shit up and make a big play for a T on Thursday night. Everybody assumed that was QB but I think they're willing to make the big move to go up and get Ekwonu or Neal, with Cross as the consolation prize.
 
Simba said:
Personally, I think a trade up this year for us is much more likely than it has been in recent years for us. If a guy falls to the back of that top 10, we're not prohibited from getting up there. Of course, that assumes what we deem as a top 5 talent is sitting there.
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Yes I love the thought process, but who is the pick and what is our range? Maybe we trade up to get our guy picks 9-12? Stingley, Hamilton, KT, or Neal I'd move up for.
 
BoredMarine13 said:
I feel good about our chances of landing a great player at 14. I think QB needy teams are going to panic. Sounds like they will have trouble trading back forcing them to take a QB earlier than they should. I can see the Seahawks/Skins/Falcons/Texans taking at least two QBs off the board before 14.
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I hope you're right.
 
Simba said:
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tbf even in a normal draft year this would be the case

teams that are trading up normally dont even start those conversations until the day before at the earliest because no one knows if their guy is gonna be available

but it also makes sense for teams willing to trade down to let teams know that they're a potential target
 
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