The Ty Huntley, The Big Plays and The Andy Dalton

[JoeyFlex5]

I was furious at it when it happened. The more I let it marinate I don't "hate" the idea of a blitz, but I think the personnel grouping that the Bears had out there pretty much showed that they knew it was coming. Like they went max protect. They went 3 wide and kept 7 in for protection, including a back and a TE. A lot of teams in that situation are going to go at least four wide and will sometimes send a back or TE out for release.

Not like the play call is rushed either. You have the ability to check out of that look on the defensive side. And we didn't. If they blitzed 7 against a five man protection, Andy almost certainly never gets that throw off, because he doesn't have time for a double move. Then Wink looks like a genius.

It's the combination of that call, coupled with the fact that the Bears knowing we're making that call, that make it look so bad. There's not a lot of OC's who would be like "yeah, we're going to run a double move in man coverage on 4th and 13, where an incompletion ends the game. Almost everybody has multiple routes right past the line of gain to keep the game going. They saw the coverage, had the perfect play called, and executed.

yes its almost as if they knew exactly what wink was calling because they had seen it time and time again

 

[purplepittabread88]

Maybe Wink is way smarter than we think. Imagine it's week 18 or the playoffs in the same situation. Disguised drop and only 4 rush, everyone drops.
No qb would expect that. It is an optimistic wish but maybe he switches it up when everyone, including the opposing qb, knows the blitz is coming.

I will revisit this post by February.

 

[JoeyFlex5]

I think the bigger issue is that he's trying to do the same things he's done in previous years with lesser personnel. You can do these things when you have Humphrey, Peters, Jimmy, Elliott, and Clark out there. You can't do these things when you have young guys like Westry, Stone, and Stephens all learning on the job. I appreciate the trust he's putting in these types of guys but you can't leave them on an island as often as they have been this year. I like the aggressiveness but it's been too often this season and we haven't adjusted that well.

i said this in the post you quoted though lol, when i said we have only two of our starting dbs and were still scheming as if were fielding multiple all pro corners

 

[JoeyFlex5]

Maybe Wink is way smarter than we think. Imagine it's week 18 or the playoffs in the same situation. Disguised drop and only 4 rush, everyone drops.
No qb would expect that. It is an optimistic wish but maybe he switches it up when everyone, including the opposing qb, knows the blitz is coming.

I will revisit this post by February.

so basically the 2019 patriots "bill belichick lost to the ravens on purpose, hes saving his playbook for the playoffs" and then they get bounced in the WC round

not a chance, this team isnt built to play losing game plans on purpose to keep a trick in your back pocket for later, no team in the nfl is, no nfl coach would ever do such a thing

 

[rmcjacket23]

Maybe Wink is way smarter than we think. Imagine it's week 18 or the playoffs in the same situation. Disguised drop and only 4 rush, everyone drops.
No qb would expect that. It is an optimistic wish but maybe he switches it up when everyone, including the opposing qb, knows the blitz is coming.

I will revisit this post by February.

Would they not expect it? Like maybe they don't expect the disguise, but rushing 4 and dropping 7 in coverage on 4th and 13, in what would be likely a mostly zone look, would be precisely what like 90% of coaches in the league would do on that play. It's what I expected us to do.

 

[Simba]

i said this in the post you quoted though lol, when i said we have only two of our starting dbs and were still scheming as if were fielding multiple all pro corners

More or less agreeing lol. Just expanding.

 

[ravenslord]

he recently talked about the injury (I think with zrebiec) - said he probably pushed it too hard too early to get back - been no indication from anyone that there’s anything career-ending here

said he’s gonna make sure that he doesn’t go too quick this time around - make sure he takes his time to get it right

I'm just trying to be a realist here. Three surgeries on the same ankle,two of which failed, is not good period. I really hope Ronnie is ok but I just have a bad feeling his injury could be career ending with the rumors of nerve damage.

I hope I am completely wrong.

 

[Simba]

I'm just trying to be a realist here. Three surgeries on the same ankle,two of which failed, is not good period. I really hope Ronnie is ok but I just have a bad feeling his injury could be career ending with the rumors of nerve damage.

I hope I am completely wrong.

There's just not enough info to know. The facts are that he had a major injury and him coming back in less than a year in the first place is a borderline miracle. Yes it sucks that he needed to go under the knife again but it's impossible to know if it's a "failed" surgery or they made some decisions to try to get him back earlier. Unfortunate but it's been routinely referred to as a pain management thing and if the surgery was more for that and less structural, it's hard to jump to a conclusion that it's some career ender.

 

[purplepittabread88]

The 4th and 11 was brutal but other DCs suck way worse than Wink. He is doing just enough to stay in Baltimore and it is perfect. We know his defense works great when every player is healthy

 

[JoeyFlex5]

The 4th and 11 was brutal but other DCs suck way worse than Wink. He is doing just enough to stay in Baltimore and it is perfect. We know his defense works great when every player is healthy

say we get an OL of AV-phillips-bozeman-zeitler-mekari and they start to gel and theyre hitting their stride come playoff time. and lamar, the wrs, the run game, all get clicking and theyre hot, and were in the playoffs and were making a run at it, and wink once again sends a heavy blitz and leaves a guy like westry on an island and gets burned again the same way we get burned time and time again on these money down blitzes, sending 6 rushers and generating no pressure at all because guys are running long looping stunts against 2-3 extra blockers because they know its coming, and we lose a winnable playoff game because of it, do you still feel this way? doesnt matter if every player is healthy, because that will never happen in the nfl, wink needs to adjust point blank period. we have rushers that can generate pressure. houston, oweh, campbell, madubuike, and bowser can generate pressure, he needs to start letting them, and giving these unseasoned dbs the help they need

 

[marklar]

QB observation: Fields and Huntley are of pretty similar age. One looks like he's 15, the other like he's 40. I guess age beats youth this time

 

[rossihunter2]

yes its almost as if they knew exactly what wink was calling because they had seen it time and time again

partly they'd seen it because we'd shown them tons of similar plays in that game and even that drive to positive results

 

[rossihunter2]

obviously you dont want to give up a TD but i would be interested to have seen whether our win probability would have been higher with them scoring or with them converting the 1st down...

because i have a sneaky feeling that we had a better chance of driving down the field for a TD than winning via a conversion with the bears running out the clock and missing a field goal...

something to be said for playing the marker hard and making sure that you guard the sticks with everything and if they get you over the top then fine... you'll live and die by the sword

 

[JoeyFlex5]

partly they'd seen it because we'd shown them tons of similar plays in that game and even that drive to positive results

which brings me back to it, its situational, they saw it enough, they knew what to do to counter it, they did it, and burned us.

just because it works the first four doesnt mean youre gonna 5/5, you become increasingly less likely to succeed with it every time you use the same strategy, its the nfl, you gotta play the chess match. that seems to be where the analytics fall short, what do the numbers say when a team has seen the same look time and time again and its a late game money down that could very well decide the outcome, how does the same strategy pan out against, say, a veteran qb who knows that the blitz is coming and the playcall is designed to beat it? now show me what the numbers say when a veteran qb/playcaller knows the blitz is coming, they design the play to pick up the blitz and beat it, and then bam we drop 7 guys in zone and they only have 3 routes being run and our 4 man rush actually pins their ears back for a standard speed rush and actually gets a little pressure?

 

[JoeyFlex5]

obviously you dont want to give up a TD but i would be interested to have seen whether our win probability would have been higher with them scoring or with them converting the 1st down...

because i have a sneaky feeling that we had a better chance of driving down the field for a TD than winning via a conversion with the bears running out the clock and missing a field goal...

something to be said for playing the marker hard and making sure that you guard the sticks with everything and if they get you over the top then fine... you'll live and die by the sword

thats all fine and dandy but we didnt have lamar jackson nor did we have hollywood and our OL was as bad as theyve ever been, we pulled off the comeback with a busted coverage but dont count on that.

i do like guarding the sticks, thats perfectly fine, i just dont like leaving westry on an island against near-max protect, at all.

 

[RavensMania]

I have to hard disagree with you on this. I dont think we ended up paying him any more than 2-3 mil a year. Being super average and being active for 16 games is worth every cent of that.
He was always healthy and did way more than he was fit to for us. Dude was a udfa guard starting at left tackle. I put more rage on the busts and injured linemen we had. Hurst was average, but he was always suited up. He was an incredible 6th lineman

It was a 4 yr / 17.5m with 8m guaranteed. 2 to 3m would have been absolutely fair.

I agree that Hurst always suited up for us, no argument there and I'm sure that went into the contract decision, but imo, incredible 6th OL is overstating it a bit. That being said, I do remember being ok with the extension at the time, but would have preferred it being for less money. I didn't hate him as much as @lostintranslation. With Lost, you'd think he stole his girlfriend.

 

[airconteka]

How lol… I see a possession clutch WR who isn’t highly reliant on getting pass interferences to move the ball. He’s a great catcher and a very very good all around WR

He seems adept at drawing in OPIs but because he is a tough guy rather than milking them.

 

[RavensMania]

he was a really solid LG for us actually, borderline starting caliber at times, but he occasionally had really low lows that were maddening. i think all in all he was just a harbaugh guy who had experience at multiple spots and that was why we wanted him

that last statement being a Harbaugh guy is absolutely correct.

 

[rmcjacket23]

obviously you dont want to give up a TD but i would be interested to have seen whether our win probability would have been higher with them scoring or with them converting the 1st down...

because i have a sneaky feeling that we had a better chance of driving down the field for a TD than winning via a conversion with the bears running out the clock and missing a field goal...

something to be said for playing the marker hard and making sure that you guard the sticks with everything and if they get you over the top then fine... you'll live and die by the sword

So my opinion... no way.

For starters, it'll depend on what the yardage is gained on a first down. If we give up a 30 yard play? Sure, I'd say let them score.
If we're talking a literal first down, lets put the ball at the 37. That's a 54 yard FG. I'd give them like a 25% chance of making that kick in those conditions, and that might be generous. Naturally they still have more plays to run, but I doubt they throw it again. If they managed to get another 5-6 yards rushing before trying the kick, you're still looking at a 45-50 yard FG, into the wind, on that field, which every player out there has said was in terrible shape, especially for kicking.

I get his view point, I just don't agree with it. He's basically defaulting to "a first down automatically means we lose the game", and I don't see it that way. In a dome against Tucker, maybe. That's not what this was.

 

[JoeyFlex5]

So my opinion... no way.

For starters, it'll depend on what the yardage is gained on a first down. If we give up a 30 yard play? Sure, I'd say let them score.
If we're talking a literal first down, lets put the ball at the 37. That's a 54 yard FG. I'd give them like a 25% chance of making that kick in those conditions, and that might be generous. Naturally they still have more plays to run, but I doubt they throw it again. If they managed to get another 5-6 yards rushing before trying the kick, you're still looking at a 45-50 yard FG, into the wind, on that field, which every player out there has said was in terrible shape, especially for kicking.

I get his view point, I just don't agree with it. He's basically defaulting to "a first down automatically means we lose the game", and I don't see it that way. In a dome against Tucker, maybe. That's not what this was.

EXACTLY

that kicker is not guaranteed to make any fg, especially a long af game winner at soldier field on a shitty weather day. that field is known for fucking over kickers.