If I am the NFL I would want to punish the Browns as well and make that suspension 16 games and not 17 just to spite the Browns because reportedly if he is suspended an entire year his contract tolls (which solves the Browns entire cap problem) so let him have 1 game just to make sure that it counts for a year in the contract.
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The 2022 Offseason Thread
- Thread starter rossihunter2
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UPennChem
Hall of Famer
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rmcjacket23
Ravens Ring of Honor
Cap problem really isn't an issue anyway. The Browns can (and will) convert a large chunk of his 2023 salary into a bonus and prorate, which means it'll be untouchable from suspension. They likely won't drop it down to like $1M like this year, but I would almost guarantee his base salary for 2023 will be less than $10M before the dust settles. Likely in the $5M range.
They were always going to do that anyway. Contract was structured like that for a reason. 0% chance the Browns are going to carry Watson at a $55M cap hit next year. Suspended or not.
Yes but had they had they would have been able to resign players for next year but after that are going to have to let important pieces walk because they simply would not be able to sign them. There just would not be a way. The Saints have managed to get under the cap but they have done it having to make those exact same tough calls and when you are having to lose key players and not having a draft, then the team will certainly be worse and that left them really a 1 year window, 2023, to win anything but now if they toll the contract because of the suspension that all changes and they can be active in free agency or at least resign all their key players.
drjohnnyfever
Pro Bowler
The whole Watson thing has been so predictable. He's gonna be gone for the season and the NFLPA is going to appeal and around it's going to go for the entire season, drawing attention to a situation that the NFL just wants to go away.
ravenslord
Ravens Ring of Honor
I'm concerned about this guy. He looks slow.
UPennChem
Hall of Famer
I say we should really temper any judgment so far because it is still so early.
With that being said though, I will say a light concern probably makes some sense given that usually the defense dominates early in camp. The defense actually has been dominanting so far, but Hamilton in particular is more often right now getting beat then he is winning. Our receivers certainly aren't elite and Likely is getting the better of him. He's running with the twos. McDonald says he's going to have to earn playing time. That's not a good sentence. MM says he showed up at TC slumped compared to a rookie camp.
You'd certainly wish he was doing better. Let's just say that. The real thing though is we have no idea how this is going to translate to game action. Look no further than Boykin vs Jamar Chase.
rmcjacket23
Ravens Ring of Honor
But it doesn't change. If they toll the contract, his cap impact for 2023 dramatically decreases. That would increase the number of players they can sign, not decrease it.
Watson is not going to have a gigantically high cap hit in 2023 under any circumstances. Doesn't matter if the contract tolls or not. They've got easy restructure ability in all scenarios.
I like 53 man predictions too, so here's mine before we even get to the games. Will be curious to see how this changes once we see reps in preseason, especially on the ST units.
QB (2):
In: Lamar Jackson, Tyler Huntley
Just Missed:
Out: Brett Hundley, Anthony Brown
No surprises here. Hundley is bad and Brown needs a complete revamp of his mechanics. Might be combing through for a better PS option than these 2.
RB (5):
In: JK Dobbins, Mike Davis, Justice Hill, Tyler Badie, Pat Ricard (FB)
Just Missed: Corey Clement, Gus Edwards (IR/PUP)
Out: Nate McCrary, Ben Mason (FB)
With the news of Gus not being ready, Davis feels a lot safer. Not throwing Clement out of the hunt just yet though, but his skillset seems more similar to Hill and Badie.
WR (5):
In: Rashod Bateman, James Proche, Devin Duvernay, Tylan Wallace, Jaylon Moore
Just Missed: Binjimen Victor, Shemar Bridges, Slade Bolden
Out: Bailey Gaither, Devon Williams, Makai Polk, Raleigh Webb
I expect WR to remain fluid. Seems like Moore is in the lead right now but Bridges continues to do well with his reps according to reports. I expect them to go light here on the 53 but heavy on the PS and maybe rotate in by week.
TE (3):
In: Mark Andrews, Nick Boyle, Isaiah Likely
Just Missed: Josh Oliver, Charlie Kolar (IR)
Out: Tony Poljan
Oliver has by all accounts put up a good camp so far but just misses on numbers. Kolar goes to IR with his recent surgery. He'll likely make the original 53 and head to IR shortly thereafter. Plenty of guys on the roster that can be cut and re-signed to support that.
OL (9):
In: Ronnie Stanley, Tyre Phillips, Tyler Linderbaum, Kevin Zeitler, Morgan Moses, Ja'Wuan James, Daniel Faalele, Patrick Mekari, Ben Cleveland
Just Missed: Ben Powers, Trystan Colon
Out: David Sharpe, Jaryd Jones-Smith, Khalil McKenzie, Jimmy Murray
This might be one of the more competitive spots and it depends on health and ultimately, cap savings. That's why I have Powers out right now but he could just as easily be on. I have James in as well but still not super convinced there either.
DL (6):
In: Calais Campbell, Michael Pierce, Justin Madubuike, Travis Jones, Brent Urban, Broderick Washington
Just Missed: Isaiah Mack
Out: Aaron Crawford, Rayshad Nichols
I think we'd be talking about Mack more if we weren't so deep already, but should be a prime PS guy.
ILB (4):
In: Patrick Queen, Josh Bynes, Malik Harrison, Kristian Welch
Just Missed: Zakoby McClain
Out: Josh Ross, Diego Fagot
McClain is my dark horse right now. At the open practice, he looked to be on all of the ST units so keep an eye on him. Harrison would be my surprise cut as it currently stands, but keeping him on for now.
OLB (5):
In: Odafe Oweh, Justin Houston, Tyus Bowser, Vince Biegel, Daelin Hayes
Just Missed: Jeremiah Moon
Out: Steven Means, Chuck Wiley, David Ojabo (NFI)
I'm starting to feel that Biegel might be closer to a lock than the bubble. He's so active out there and has been getting a ton of reps in Bowser's place.
CB (6):
In: Marlon Humphrey, Marcus Peters, Kyle Fuller, Brandon Stephens, Jalyn Armour-Davis, Pepe Williams
Just Missed: Kevon Seymour
Out: Ar'Darius Washington (PUP), Robert Jackson, David Vereen, Denzel Williams
Seymour stays in the battle because of the ST ability. He became a key component last year, but numbers don't support it. I like Ar'Darius still but him still recovering might lead to him just sticking on PUP for a late season return should we need him
S (5):
In: Marcus Williams, Kyle Hamilton, Chuck Clark, Geno Stone, Tony Jefferson
Just Missed:
Out:
I feel like the only real "question" here is if TJ is the de facto cut and re-sign later/sign to the PS and get some elevations.
ST (3):
In: Justin Tucker, Jordan Stout, Nick Moore
Just Missed:
Out:
It's still feels weird not typing Koch and Cox here.
The roster feels pretty cut and dry right now other than WR and OL. I think there could be a surprise or two but for the most part, I feel like we have a good idea who is still in the hunt as of right now.
QB (2):
In: Lamar Jackson, Tyler Huntley
Just Missed:
Out: Brett Hundley, Anthony Brown
No surprises here. Hundley is bad and Brown needs a complete revamp of his mechanics. Might be combing through for a better PS option than these 2.
RB (5):
In: JK Dobbins, Mike Davis, Justice Hill, Tyler Badie, Pat Ricard (FB)
Just Missed: Corey Clement, Gus Edwards (IR/PUP)
Out: Nate McCrary, Ben Mason (FB)
With the news of Gus not being ready, Davis feels a lot safer. Not throwing Clement out of the hunt just yet though, but his skillset seems more similar to Hill and Badie.
WR (5):
In: Rashod Bateman, James Proche, Devin Duvernay, Tylan Wallace, Jaylon Moore
Just Missed: Binjimen Victor, Shemar Bridges, Slade Bolden
Out: Bailey Gaither, Devon Williams, Makai Polk, Raleigh Webb
I expect WR to remain fluid. Seems like Moore is in the lead right now but Bridges continues to do well with his reps according to reports. I expect them to go light here on the 53 but heavy on the PS and maybe rotate in by week.
TE (3):
In: Mark Andrews, Nick Boyle, Isaiah Likely
Just Missed: Josh Oliver, Charlie Kolar (IR)
Out: Tony Poljan
Oliver has by all accounts put up a good camp so far but just misses on numbers. Kolar goes to IR with his recent surgery. He'll likely make the original 53 and head to IR shortly thereafter. Plenty of guys on the roster that can be cut and re-signed to support that.
OL (9):
In: Ronnie Stanley, Tyre Phillips, Tyler Linderbaum, Kevin Zeitler, Morgan Moses, Ja'Wuan James, Daniel Faalele, Patrick Mekari, Ben Cleveland
Just Missed: Ben Powers, Trystan Colon
Out: David Sharpe, Jaryd Jones-Smith, Khalil McKenzie, Jimmy Murray
This might be one of the more competitive spots and it depends on health and ultimately, cap savings. That's why I have Powers out right now but he could just as easily be on. I have James in as well but still not super convinced there either.
DL (6):
In: Calais Campbell, Michael Pierce, Justin Madubuike, Travis Jones, Brent Urban, Broderick Washington
Just Missed: Isaiah Mack
Out: Aaron Crawford, Rayshad Nichols
I think we'd be talking about Mack more if we weren't so deep already, but should be a prime PS guy.
ILB (4):
In: Patrick Queen, Josh Bynes, Malik Harrison, Kristian Welch
Just Missed: Zakoby McClain
Out: Josh Ross, Diego Fagot
McClain is my dark horse right now. At the open practice, he looked to be on all of the ST units so keep an eye on him. Harrison would be my surprise cut as it currently stands, but keeping him on for now.
OLB (5):
In: Odafe Oweh, Justin Houston, Tyus Bowser, Vince Biegel, Daelin Hayes
Just Missed: Jeremiah Moon
Out: Steven Means, Chuck Wiley, David Ojabo (NFI)
I'm starting to feel that Biegel might be closer to a lock than the bubble. He's so active out there and has been getting a ton of reps in Bowser's place.
CB (6):
In: Marlon Humphrey, Marcus Peters, Kyle Fuller, Brandon Stephens, Jalyn Armour-Davis, Pepe Williams
Just Missed: Kevon Seymour
Out: Ar'Darius Washington (PUP), Robert Jackson, David Vereen, Denzel Williams
Seymour stays in the battle because of the ST ability. He became a key component last year, but numbers don't support it. I like Ar'Darius still but him still recovering might lead to him just sticking on PUP for a late season return should we need him
S (5):
In: Marcus Williams, Kyle Hamilton, Chuck Clark, Geno Stone, Tony Jefferson
Just Missed:
Out:
I feel like the only real "question" here is if TJ is the de facto cut and re-sign later/sign to the PS and get some elevations.
ST (3):
In: Justin Tucker, Jordan Stout, Nick Moore
Just Missed:
Out:
It's still feels weird not typing Koch and Cox here.
The roster feels pretty cut and dry right now other than WR and OL. I think there could be a surprise or two but for the most part, I feel like we have a good idea who is still in the hunt as of right now.
If the contract tolls, then they are fine in 2023 and going forward. If the contract does not toll, then they could resign their guys in 2023 (not do anything else of course) but 2024 and on they would have to start letting their people go just like NO because they would be in the exact same cap situation.
rmcjacket23
Ravens Ring of Honor
Well, sort of. What's the salary cap going to be in 2024? I don't know and neither do you. If it's $250M or more, which it very well could be, they'll be just fine. They'll be able to afford just about anybody they want.
Also, the same restructure they do in 2023 can be done in 2024. They can keep kicking the can. Because once they get to the end of the contract, assuming he's still playing at a high level, you just give him another new extension and push some of the existing money into those years.
Like part of the reason the Saints have cap issues now is because Brees is gone. They couldn't keep pushing the money down the line because the player retired. As long as the player is around and playing well, you can pretty much keep pushing money down the road for a long, long time.
But the easiest premise is this... in 2,3,4 years, is $55M cap hit for a QB going to be prohibitive? My opinion, no. Might only be 15-20% of the cap, which isn't prohibitive at all. They'll need to draft well just like anybody else, but it doesn't mean they'll be out of cash entirely.
people are getting too focused on 1v1s - he's going to lose 1v1s, most defenders do, but especially tall dudes who play safety
what's promising is that even at the stadium practice where he had that 1 or 2 plays where he got beat in the 1v1s, he excelled in the 7on7 and 11v11 drills even when left single-covered
right now there's too much panic about this after only a week of practice and only 1 day of pads
UPennChem
Hall of Famer
I agree with the general sentiment here for sure. Wayyyy to early to be saying much if anything. But I'm not considering any one v ones. That would be stupid. But Likely has been dominanting him supposedly in 7 on 7s right?
i think kolar being an i/r return situation eases a lot of the roster stress
having TJ there as someone we can maybe do a cut and re-sign also eases a lot of issues that might have come up
ar'darius staying on PUP may well be his saving grace - love him and his tape from college but he had/has zero shot at the 53 with the current roster makeup
im with you on biegel - felt weird seeing him getting those starting reps opposite oweh at the stadium practice when houston wasn't in - especially with hayes healthy - but that's a pretty strong sign even this early in camp that he's at least somewhat in their roster plans (not unlike ja'wuan james playing at LT with the 1s)
always gonna like mack after what he did in that covid bengals game on 25 snaps
as you say - pretty cut and dry
WR and LG the only real questions with starting implications
OLB/LB feels like where it could potentially get a little weird during the preseason if we get more clarity on biegel and see some things from one of the udfa LBs albeit so far seems pretty clear that they're mostly all well on the outside looking in - think mcclain was the only guy i saw getting reps next to anyone notable at the stadium practice and you say he was on the ST units... that's normally a pretty good sign
will be paying close attention to the ST unit reps during preseason for clues to who might be making it
dominating feels like the wrong word
beat him twice in tight coverage and shook him once... remember the defenders aren't allowed to play physically at the catch-point in practice beyond just sticking their hand in there - so much of kyle's man coverage game is about exploding out of the breakpoint in his 2nd and 3rd step and attacking the ball as it arrives using his length, physicality and explosion
UPennChem
Hall of Famer
Makes sense. I'm not worried about him. More worried about Linderbaum. Apparently there's been a lot of pressure up the middle
And even if you did have to keep Kolar, I think you could still make it work with one of those vets for a few weeks until another spot opened up.
Yeah even if Ar'Darius does come back before the season, it seems like he's destined to be cut. He played a lot more slot CB last year and you have Stephens and Pepe ahead of him for a similar role at this point.
Biegel is definitely intriguing. Helps that he has inside outside versatility even though it's been all outside so far. But he's also been a quality STer in his career so he feels pretty safe to me right now. Also just feels like a Ravens guy who might bounce on and off the roster but they still re-sign year after year - almost Jordan Richards style.
But yeah in relation to the last point, kind of disappointing that none of the UDFAs have really stepped up, especially at WR. Sounds like Bridges has done the most so far but still hasn't lit the world on fire. Otherwise, it seems like McClain and Moon have been the only other 2 that have at least raised some eyebrows. Still think both are still firmly on the outside looking in but all it takes is for them to show up on ST in preseason to change that.
worth pointing out with regards to those 2 udfas though that even standing out on special teams might not be enough to make the 53 with the PS call-up rules - it's why i think it would be tough for them to go to 5 ILBs on the roster (especially with biegel making it at OLB if he does) because that last ILB is gonna be a special teamer and that guy can ultimately be a PS call up