this article's been doing the rounds today and i think it just shows that there's a lot of GMs out there who learned about positional value and then stopped learning
EDC specifically talked today about how our analytics team (and we have a league-wide considered top 2 analytics department) thought that there was a market inefficiency in free agency and the draft with regards to safety and TE specifically where those positions are notably under-valued league-wide
he also talked about how too many teams value need too high - how they'll pick need over value
EDIT:
Matt adds the ben solak article he's referring to
For those who are wondering what the GM/Exec. means with this analogy:
There are 6 ways to roll 7, but only 2 to roll 11. The Ravens are banking on low probability picks instead of higher probability picks -> according to the Exec. edc should've drafted a WR instead of Hamilton, Johnson instead of Linderbaum, a healthy player instead of Ojabo and not a NT in the 3rd.
Here's what they said:
“A lot depends on how you view Linderbaum, because it is beauty in the eye of the beholder with him,” an evaluator said. “There is not a great precedent of guys his size being great players in the league. He is very similar size-wise to Garrett Bradburry who just got his fifth-year option declined. Kyle Hamilton checked every box except for the athletic component.”
If there were large numbers of 6-4 college safeties failing in the NFL year after year, we would know with greater certainty height was a limiting factor. But few safeties that tall exist at any level. Does that mean the hit rate is far lower for them?
“I’m more bullish on Baltimore, but I can see the skepticism,” an exec said. “While I like a lot of the players they picked, the positions they focused on were kind of weird: strong safety, center, nose tackle, punter, two tight ends. Kyle Hamilton fell and probably for a reason. He is a weird shape, tall and slow. Linderbaum was highly rated, but he’s a center. Ojabo, they got a quote-unquote value pick there, but he might not play.
Travis Jones, he is a guy that the analytics loved. His measurables were very good. But his tape was not.”
Trading Hollywood Brown, drafting zero receivers and loading up on tight ends could signal Baltimore doubling down on its run-heavy offense rather than trying to unlock a conventional passing game by surrounding
Lamar Jackson with upgraded traditional receiving weaponry.
“They just stick so heavily to their board that if someone is higher than a wide receiver, they are definitely going to take that other person, but they might be a little slow in adjusting to positional importance,” an exec said.