PFF's Mike Renner wrote an interesting article:
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With Jackson’s PFF grade going from 91.1 in the regular season last year to 74.2 now, it’s hard not to wonder if defenses have, in fact, “figured out” the Ravens' quarterback. I put that in quotation marks because the notion itself is a bit silly. There’s no completely figuring out such a dynamic athlete at the position, and even with his struggles, Jackson brings one of the highest floors at the position on a weekly basis.
But at the same time, the Ravens' scheme is one of a kind compared to the rest of the NFL. Just like the Patriots' deployment of quarters coverages against the LA Rams in the Super Bowl put Sean McVay’s offense in a funk that lasted throughout the next season, there’s a legitimate worry that unique offensive schemes can be “figured out” to a degree with certain defensive tactics.
Let’s look into what the Chiefs, Bengals and now the Patriots — three of Jackson's four worst passing grades on the season, with the other being against a Steelers defense that gives everyone fits — did to neutralize the reigning MVP.
The first thing to note is that not much of real consequence has changed with the Ravens' offense philosophically. With Greg Roman still on as offensive coordinator, their usage of shifts and motion (71.1% in 2019 vs. 68.8% in 2020), play action (35.2% vs. 32.4%) and heavy sets have been unchanged. What
has changed is how teams have been willing to match them.
The two things that jump off the tape when studying what those three defenses were able to do against Jackson was their almost counterintuitive usage of lighter personnel and man coverage.
To understand why those are counterintuitive, you have to first understand the genius of the Ravens' rushing offense. What Baltimore does offensively is really a spread attack disguised as a smash-mouth one. The offense deploys multiple tight ends and fullbacks and run concepts like counter or power. Those are
downhill run concepts, but because of the jet or orbit motions and options they tag onto them, the majority of their biggest run plays come
laterally. The two plays below are great examples of this.
This first one is a quarterback counter play against the Chiefs. Traditionally, counter wants to hit inside the pullers straight upfield. Because the roles are flipped here and the blocking is set up for the quarterback, the linebackers take the eye candy of the running back who is running wide left instead of maintaining their responsibilities versus the pulling linemen. No one has contain to the playside, and it doesn’t matter if someone pulls around as the lead blocker — this play is going for a massive gain.
The second is seemingly a power run against the Bengals from 21 personnel where they once again get the defense packed in tight. This time, the defense doesn’t see the eye candy of the orbit motion from
Devin Duvernay until it’s too late. And once again, it's a massive run well outside the tackles that has nothing to do with the offensive line.
The counterintuitive nature, as I’m sure you’ve picked up on by now, is that defenses have had to combat these types of runs with more beef in the box for almost the entire history of football. With the way the Ravens are set up, though, having the speed to track to the edge to make tackles is arguably as important, if not more, than being stout up front. Going lighter doesn’t mean being worse against the run.
Defenses have started figuring this out, and the Ravens have already seen 102 snaps against dime personnel (six-plus defensive backs) in 2020 after seeing only 76 in all of 2019. The consequence of opposing defenses being far more willing to defend Baltimore's running game with lighter personnel is that there has been far more speed to match the passing attack, as well.
Jackson’s most efficient passing situations last season came on early downs against base personnel, earning a 90.9 passing grade in those situations. When faced with nickel or dime packages that season, the MVP earned only a 76.8 passing grade on 326 dropbacks. Now, that grade is 66.0 and he’s on pace for over 70 more such dropbacks.
That passing grade has dropped in those situations largely because teams are far more willing to play man coverage against Jackson on money downs. This is counterintuitive because defensive coordinators are usually hesitant to play man against mobile quarterbacks — especially one of Jackson’s caliber. With defenders’ eyes locked in on their particular receivers, you don’t have more than maybe one guy to try and track down Jackson if he breaks the pocket. That’s a scary thought.
The aforementioned Chiefs, Bengals and Patriots, however, played man coverage a combined 24 times on 38 third-down plays against Jackson. He earned a 31.5 passing grade on those plays, and he has just a 52.5 passing grade against man coverage for the season. Those three teams played man against Jackson more than any of the nine defenses he’s faced this season. One important change they often made against Jackson, however, was to either eschew the traditional deep middle defender altogether or double spy him. Below, you can see the Chiefs deploying doing the former and the Pats doing the latter.
On this third-and-6 early in the second quarter, the Chiefs sit what looked to be their middle-of-the-field safety at the sticks on this man blitz against empty. Not only will a blitz clog up escape lanes, but the safety's eyes are on the quarterback and he should be able to make a stop should Jackson break the pocket.
Here, you can see the Patriots deploying a spy (circled in red) along with a traditional hole player (circled in white) in man coverage on a third down that would end with a completion short of the sticks Sunday night.
Jackson has a very high-level understanding of zone concepts and how the Ravens' offense attacks them. He’s one of the best anticipation throwers in the NFL. It’s why he shreds over the middle of the field. Against man coverage, however, ball placement is still king. Anticipation still helps plenty, but there’s no substitute for being able to hit small windows — and Jackson simply hasn’t done that.
This season, Jackson’s 5.0 yards per attempt against man coverage ranks dead last among starters, while his 65.0 adjusted completion percentage is fifth-worst. And that worry about Jackson running wild? He’s scrambled past the line on only four out of 79 dropbacks against man coverage this season, with two of those resulting in first downs.
Is Jackson figured out? Hell no. Is there a playbook for how to better attack what the Ravens are doing offensively? 100%. Combine that with the fact that their offensive line is now a shell of the 2019 version with right guard Marshal Yanda retired and left tackle Stanley out for the season with an ankle injury, and it’s difficult to see this ship being righted anytime soon.
