Lamar Jackson

[rossihunter2]

Lots of talk about Jackon, Mayfield, and Allen’s possible new contract. Lamar is clearly the best player of the three and i would be in no hurry to sign before those gentlemen. However, I cant help but think Lamar is making a huge mistake using his mom to help negotiate this contract. Raven's front office will use this to their advantage for a more team friendly deal.


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except looking at the rodgers, wilson, watson situations etc. - it would behoove them to do a deal that's fair to lamar to make sure he's happy - an extra 2m here and there is much less important than making sure it's a good deal that works for both sides

and it's unlikely he loses more in the contract value than he would pay an agent anyway...

as long as he and his mom felicia are able to negotiate the nuances of the deal if there's anything non-straightforward in there then they'll be fine
and it's not like it's just them - it'll be like the rookie deal where they negotiate it and then have a lawyer (or multiple lawyers) look through it all too

and it's worth noting that there have been some big deals done fairly recently with no agents involved - but this is the biggest but only because lamar's a superstar and a QB

 

[rossihunter2]

Yeah way, way, way more calculated than it seems. There's a reason why rookies are the one's usually doing the "no agent" thing, and that's because rookie contracts are already slated and there's nothing to negotiate over. It's pretty much just the default from the CBA agreement.

Pretty much all of these size contracts are different. Dak's deal is a TON different than, say, what Mahomes got. Same with Watson. All huge contracts, but all structured very differently by the teams.

The biggest issue I'd have is that, when you're doing the negotiations yourself, there's nobody else to call but you. Like we can sit here and pretend like Lamar's mom is heavily involved, but realistically, they're not calling her. They're calling him. And so if its Thursday of Steelers week, and the team is interested in getting an extension done, do you want your QB spending a few hours of his day looking over contract language and trading phone calls/messages with management and lawyers over contract details, or do you want him focused on learning the gameplan and prepping for his opponent?

If I were Lamar, I wouldn't negotiate at all mid-season, which severely limits your negotiating windows to begin with and makes things a lot more complicated for both parties.

THAT is the reason why most players have agents. It's the same reason why most people use real estate agents to sell homes. Do I actually need one? No, never. Could I sell my house without one? Certainly.
But my time is very valuable to me, since its the only thing I have that I can't ever get more of.

agents also act as buffers if teams or players want to rail at the situation without creating bad blood, the agents can bare the brunt of that and pick and choose what to pass on and how to tonally ease that messaging

but the in-season stuff is a complication for sure - but it just makes me more confident that a deal might get done this offseason - not sure how the cap space would work but i think they'll be hoping to get it done and get it done before allen and/or mayfield - they may not get a discount on lamar but they may force the bills and browns to pay more for their guys if they go first

 

[airconteka]

Yeah way, way, way more calculated than it seems. There's a reason why rookies are the one's usually doing the "no agent" thing, and that's because rookie contracts are already slated and there's nothing to negotiate over. It's pretty much just the default from the CBA agreement.

Pretty much all of these size contracts are different. Dak's deal is a TON different than, say, what Mahomes got. Same with Watson. All huge contracts, but all structured very differently by the teams.

The biggest issue I'd have is that, when you're doing the negotiations yourself, there's nobody else to call but you. Like we can sit here and pretend like Lamar's mom is heavily involved, but realistically, they're not calling her. They're calling him. And so if its Thursday of Steelers week, and the team is interested in getting an extension done, do you want your QB spending a few hours of his day looking over contract language and trading phone calls/messages with management and lawyers over contract details, or do you want him focused on learning the gameplan and prepping for his opponent?

If I were Lamar, I wouldn't negotiate at all mid-season, which severely limits your negotiating windows to begin with and makes things a lot more complicated for both parties.

THAT is the reason why most players have agents. It's the same reason why most people use real estate agents to sell homes. Do I actually need one? No, never. Could I sell my house without one? Certainly.
But my time is very valuable to me, since its the only thing I have that I can't ever get more of.

Why wouldn’t they call his mum? That would be pretty disrespectful and we ain’t that type of organisation. We know she’s the reason he remained in the QB position, they just need a lawyer for the contract language.

 

[Deebo813]

Yeah way, way, way more calculated than it seems. There's a reason why rookies are the one's usually doing the "no agent" thing, and that's because rookie contracts are already slated and there's nothing to negotiate over. It's pretty much just the default from the CBA agreement.

Pretty much all of these size contracts are different. Dak's deal is a TON different than, say, what Mahomes got. Same with Watson. All huge contracts, but all structured very differently by the teams.

The biggest issue I'd have is that, when you're doing the negotiations yourself, there's nobody else to call but you. Like we can sit here and pretend like Lamar's mom is heavily involved, but realistically, they're not calling her. They're calling him. And so if its Thursday of Steelers week, and the team is interested in getting an extension done, do you want your QB spending a few hours of his day looking over contract language and trading phone calls/messages with management and lawyers over contract details, or do you want him focused on learning the gameplan and prepping for his opponent?

If I were Lamar, I wouldn't negotiate at all mid-season, which severely limits your negotiating windows to begin with and makes things a lot more complicated for both parties.

THAT is the reason why most players have agents. It's the same reason why most people use real estate agents to sell homes. Do I actually need one? No, never. Could I sell my house without one? Certainly.
But my time is very valuable to me, since its the only thing I have that I can't ever get more of.

Understandable but that shit is way easier than what people make it seems to be.it just havent been done as much so mfs acting like its gonna be a disaster.. as far as time, i agree but thats also why they are trying to get it done before season..

 

[BoredMarine13]

Understandable but that shit is way easier than what people make it seems to be.it just havent been done as much so mfs acting like its gonna be a disaster.. as far as time, i agree but thats also why they are trying to get it done before season..

I think your severely underselling the complexities in the kind of a contract Lamar is about to receive….. There’s a reason the best agents in the game all went to law school(Condon, Rosenhaus , Dogra, Dunn etc..)


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[rmcjacket23]

Understandable but that shit is way easier than what people make it seems to be.it just havent been done as much so mfs acting like its gonna be a disaster.. as far as time, i agree but thats also why they are trying to get it done before season..

Yeah not buying it. You haven't really given any examples of what makes it easier that people don't understand. I just don't think that opinion is supportable with any evidence or explanation of such.

It largely hasn't been done because there's a lot of drawbacks, which I described a couple specific to this situation. It's not because fans are somehow more financially literate than players are, and that players are lazy. There's a ton of players that, if they had the ability to save like 10% of their millions by not paying an agent, they would do so. And still, most don't. There's a reason for that, and the reason really isn't "they're making it more difficult than it seems".

Maybe it will get done before the season. I would bet it doesn't. And one could extend the season into August or even late July, which is when training camp starts. Many players set training camp as the artificial deadline for discussions, because there's very little down time between training camp, preseason, and regular season start.

Training camp can be a good catalyst for deals, because agents (and players) can typically meet in person with management and deal with these things face-to-face, as opposed to playing phone tag for months. But when you don't have an agent, that means you're meeting with Lamar. And he doesn't have nearly the time that agents do.

 

[rmcjacket23]

I think your severely underselling the complexities in the kind of a contract Lamar is about to receive….. There’s a reason the best agents in the game all went to law school(Condon, Rosenhaus , Dogra, Dunn etc..)


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Well, to be fair, the complexities of the contract can be handled by lawyers. Agents act as a buffer, and more importantly, use leverage and have a much greater understanding of NFL market values and team cap structures.

Again, somewhat similar to a real estate purchase. A lawyer can handle the actual contract language. But agents put in the work of drumming up interest, negotiating pricing and terms, etc.

 

[rmcjacket23]

Why wouldn’t they call his mum? That would be pretty disrespectful and we ain’t that type of organisation. We know she’s the reason he remained in the QB position, they just need a lawyer for the contract language.

I mean, she'd probably be involved, but I've also seen nothing to suggest she's even remotely qualified to handle the negotiations of a 9 figure contract. Like I'm probably just as easily qualified to handle's Lamar's negotiations as she is, and I have no background in either.

 

[rmcjacket23]

except looking at the rodgers, wilson, watson situations etc. - it would behoove them to do a deal that's fair to lamar to make sure he's happy - an extra 2m here and there is much less important than making sure it's a good deal that works for both sides

and it's unlikely he loses more in the contract value than he would pay an agent anyway...

as long as he and his mom felicia are able to negotiate the nuances of the deal if there's anything non-straightforward in there then they'll be fine
and it's not like it's just them - it'll be like the rookie deal where they negotiate it and then have a lawyer (or multiple lawyers) look through it all too

and it's worth noting that there have been some big deals done fairly recently with no agents involved - but this is the biggest but only because lamar's a superstar and a QB

Agree with this. Fans often get too caught up in "overpaid" by trivial amounts.
Like I mocked fans for the original Flacco deal, and I was still right, even after his performance. People thought him getting $20M a year was an overpay. Yet, there was no argument possible that he should get less than $18M. That was the absolute floor for negotiations, based on his success in the league and how he comped with other players.

So like with Lamar, Dak got $40M average with $126M guaranteed. Watson got $39M average with $110M guaranteed. Lamar should, justifiably, be above those guys. So $40M is basically the floor, with probably like $120M guaranteed the floor also. If we get a discount, it will be a miniscule amount off of that. If it comes in higher than that, so be it. If it's $43M a year, that's completely fine. I would gladly pay my franchise player $2-3M a year above market value. If the contract is going to be a bust, it won't be over $2-3M. Not like anybody is going to assess five years from now and be like "yeah he was great value at 40, but at 43 he was way overpriced". Reality doesn't work that way.

 

[RavensMania]

Agree with this. Fans often get too caught up in "overpaid" by trivial amounts.
Like I mocked fans for the original Flacco deal, and I was still right, even after his performance. People thought him getting $20M a year was an overpay. Yet, there was no argument possible that he should get less than $18M. That was the absolute floor for negotiations, based on his success in the league and how he comped with other players.

So like with Lamar, Dak got $40M average with $126M guaranteed. Watson got $39M average with $110M guaranteed. Lamar should, justifiably, be above those guys. So $40M is basically the floor, with probably like $120M guaranteed the floor also. If we get a discount, it will be a miniscule amount off of that. If it comes in higher than that, so be it. If it's $43M a year, that's completely fine. I would gladly pay my franchise player $2-3M a year above market value. If the contract is going to be a bust, it won't be over $2-3M. Not like anybody is going to assess five years from now and be like "yeah he was great value at 40, but at 43 he was way overpriced". Reality doesn't work that way.

Totally agree with this and I'm on board with thinking that 40m is actually a discount

 

[Ellicottraven]

Except Tom Brady wasn't taking discounts when he was Lamar's age (or even like 5-10 years older than him), so he won't be giving any discounts here either.

Also, a "discount" for Lamar is like $38M a year. That would be what a "discount" looks like.

That is a big discount. $40M is actually a discount considering the value he brings to the team and what other QBs have been paid already.

 

[ndub]

You think other teams would pay 40M for Action Jackson? Or do other teams just see him as one dimensional athletic Qb who can’t make outside passes and that’s all?

 

[rmcjacket23]

You think other teams would pay 40M for Action Jackson? Or do other teams just see him as one dimensional athletic Qb who can’t make outside passes and that’s all?

I think if he were to actually hit the open market, there would be many, many, many teams that would give him $40M, or find a way to give him $40M. Regardless of what you think of him as a passer, he's a playmaker, and more importantly for an Owner, he's somebody that people will gladly plop down a good chunk of change to pay to watch. Not something fans usually consider, but its certainly something Owners consider.

I mean he's a top 5-8 QB in this league on everyone's list, regardless of what you think of him as a passer. That means there's, at a minimum, probably 25 teams that would upgrade at QB with him.
The issue comes down to price. There are teams that would love to have him but would never be able to afford him in the current landscape.
If I assumed that teams could get creative and trade away the players they have and/drafted at QB, and could somehow create the cap space, I think all of these teams would give Lamar $40M on average over a 4-5 year period:
AFC:
No brainers: Jets, Dolphins, Patriots, Steelers, Raiders, Broncos, Colts.
None of those teams can realistically think their QB options are better than Lamar. A couple of those teams, like the Broncos and Raiders, I think would throw gobs and gobs of money at Lamar. Especially the Raiders.
I think Chiefs and Bills would obviously not be interested, and I think the Jags, Bengals and Chargers think they have young studs, so they probably wouldn't be interested.
Houston would be interested if they were serious about moving on from Watson. And Tennessee and Cleveland would be wildcards to me, in that I think Lamar is clearly better than both of their QBs, but they also like their guys and may think the price doesn't match the value.

NFC:
No brainers: Redskins, Giants, Eagles, Bears, Lions, Vikings, Saints, Falcons, Panthers
The only teams I think that would be totally uninterested, due to the "win now mode", is Seattle, GB and probably Tampa. Dallas is out because they love Dak so much.
San Fran and LA Rams would be interesting. 49ers probably fall into the class of Jacksonville, and I honestly don't know what McVay would think about Lamar.

I think there's 16 teams, at a minimum, that would have no hesitation dropping their current QB and signing Lamar to market value, if he were available today. The barrier would be money.
Of the other 15 teams, I think there's a bunch that would consider it also.

 

[rmcjacket23]

That is a big discount. $40M is actually a discount considering the value he brings to the team and what other QBs have been paid already.

I mean I guess. But my point is... it's not really going to change the teams ability to navigate the salary cap. Like if your market value is $40M, and he signs for $38M (as examples), does that mean we have a lot of other ways to make the roster better? Nope. It's $2M. $2M will be basically the veteran minimum in a few years most likely. So his "discount" only allows you to sign one veteran minimum player, who's not typically a game changer.

Same thing on the reverse side. If "market value" is $40M, and he signs for $43M, does that mean we're screwed with the cap because the latter is $3M more? Nope. Again, its the difference between like one veteran minimum player.
That's sort of the point of my argument. All these fans want to nickel and dime and haggle over trivial amounts of salary cap. You rarely see NFL teams let franchise players walk over like $1-2M a year. At the QB position, I'm not sure it's ever really happened for players of this magnitude. Arbitrarily overpaying QBs doesn't appear to be a thing that really any NFL team is concerned with.

 

[ndub]

I think if he were to actually hit the open market, there would be many, many, many teams that would give him $40M, or find a way to give him $40M. Regardless of what you think of him as a passer, he's a playmaker, and more importantly for an Owner, he's somebody that people will gladly plop down a good chunk of change to pay to watch. Not something fans usually consider, but its certainly something Owners consider.

I mean he's a top 5-8 QB in this league on everyone's list, regardless of what you think of him as a passer. That means there's, at a minimum, probably 25 teams that would upgrade at QB with him.
The issue comes down to price. There are teams that would love to have him but would never be able to afford him in the current landscape.
If I assumed that teams could get creative and trade away the players they have and/drafted at QB, and could somehow create the cap space, I think all of these teams would give Lamar $40M on average over a 4-5 year period:
AFC:
No brainers: Jets, Dolphins, Patriots, Steelers, Raiders, Broncos, Colts.
None of those teams can realistically think their QB options are better than Lamar. A couple of those teams, like the Broncos and Raiders, I think would throw gobs and gobs of money at Lamar. Especially the Raiders.
I think Chiefs and Bills would obviously not be interested, and I think the Jags, Bengals and Chargers think they have young studs, so they probably wouldn't be interested.
Houston would be interested if they were serious about moving on from Watson. And Tennessee and Cleveland would be wildcards to me, in that I think Lamar is clearly better than both of their QBs, but they also like their guys and may think the price doesn't match the value.

NFC:
No brainers: Redskins, Giants, Eagles, Bears, Lions, Vikings, Saints, Falcons, Panthers
The only teams I think that would be totally uninterested, due to the "win now mode", is Seattle, GB and probably Tampa. Dallas is out because they love Dak so much.
San Fran and LA Rams would be interesting. 49ers probably fall into the class of Jacksonville, and I honestly don't know what McVay would think about Lamar.

I think there's 16 teams, at a minimum, that would have no hesitation dropping their current QB and signing Lamar to market value, if he were available today. The barrier would be money.
Of the other 15 teams, I think there's a bunch that would consider it also.

Dayumm… your analysis is amazing on this one. I love it. You sir will always be someone I now look up to in terms of analysis/etc. Thank you for chiming in

 

[rossihunter2]

Agree with this. Fans often get too caught up in "overpaid" by trivial amounts.
Like I mocked fans for the original Flacco deal, and I was still right, even after his performance. People thought him getting $20M a year was an overpay. Yet, there was no argument possible that he should get less than $18M. That was the absolute floor for negotiations, based on his success in the league and how he comped with other players.

So like with Lamar, Dak got $40M average with $126M guaranteed. Watson got $39M average with $110M guaranteed. Lamar should, justifiably, be above those guys. So $40M is basically the floor, with probably like $120M guaranteed the floor also. If we get a discount, it will be a miniscule amount off of that. If it comes in higher than that, so be it. If it's $43M a year, that's completely fine. I would gladly pay my franchise player $2-3M a year above market value. If the contract is going to be a bust, it won't be over $2-3M. Not like anybody is going to assess five years from now and be like "yeah he was great value at 40, but at 43 he was way overpriced". Reality doesn't work that way.

the issue with the flacco deal (in reality) was the structure with the lack of flexibility and the way it forced the ravens into sending tons of guaranteed money into the future and also required them to redo the deal

many fans quibbled over the price but the real issue was probably more about the structure of the cap hits

 

[rossihunter2]

You think other teams would pay 40M for Action Jackson? Or do other teams just see him as one dimensional athletic Qb who can’t make outside passes and that’s all?

most teams in the league will happily pay lamar 40m+
on the open market, he for sure becomes the highest paid player in the league (probably even over mahomes because of the way the market works)

just look at how much kirk cousins was paid (relative to that time) when he finally hit the open market... lamar's a different class and calibre of QB to cousins and most of the league would likely be in on Lamar in this instance - would probably end up resetting the market

 

[Deebo813]

Crazy how yall underestimate people lol.. being under qualified dnt mean you cant do the job or get the job done..

 

[Deebo813]

You think other teams would pay 40M for Action Jackson? Or do other teams just see him as one dimensional athletic Qb who can’t make outside passes and that’s all?

I think a team like the niners would def pay him that much if they could. Maybe a team like titans also

 

[rmcjacket23]

the issue with the flacco deal (in reality) was the structure with the lack of flexibility and the way it forced the ravens into sending tons of guaranteed money into the future and also required them to redo the deal

many fans quibbled over the price but the real issue was probably more about the structure of the cap hits

Agreed. I just recall fans having very little understanding of salary cap and how contract structures worked back then (and many still don't), and all anybody seemed to care about was the average salary.

I'm the biggest proponent of that being one of the worst contract structures I've seen this organization do, BUT, in their defense, they were, somewhat, trying to (unrealistically) run it back. Like there were a lot of people who thought the 2013 Ravens were going to be a really good team. And that 2014 team was pretty good. If Flacco's cap number is $5M higher, which it probably should have been, is that team as good? I doubt it. I don't even know that Steve Smith is there.