It's injury recovery, and its usage. And I'm guilty of the latter, but the premise is... if I give Dobbins 250 carries in a workhorse role, is 6.0 YPC or whatever he averaged down the stretch reasonable? Like that's at a all-time legendary type level.
Realistically more volume means his YPC probably comes down. It's still solid, but I'm not sure he's ever going to get a bellcow type role here anyway. Even more in an offense that figures to throw the ball a lot more this year.
And like he may be able to get something similar to an Aaron Jones contract (though probably not for 4 years), but like Jones contract, while looks great on the surface (4 for $48M), he got $13M gtd, which was his signing bonus. He got no gtd $ beyond year 1. And he took a substantial paycut just this offseason two years into his deal to avoid getting cut entirely.
The reality is that the top of the RB market in terms of AAV of what would actually get paid is in the $10-12M range. That's the ceiling. He'd have to show he belongs in that group. Today, he doesn't.