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The 2023 Offseason Thread

rmcjacket23

Ravens Ring of Honor
do you know the exclusive tag numbers?
Not official yet, and actually won't be official even when Ravens apply it.

It's average top 5 cap hits for the position group, but its finalized when FA "ends" (which FA doesn't really end, so its weird), which is usually mid-April.

I could be wrong on the mechanics, but if its the average of the top 5 QB cap hits, then as of today, it's $45.4M, which is what people have been estimating.

What I'm highly intrigued by is what happens if those cap hits change, and I 100% think they will:

1. For starters, the #1 cap hit is Watson, at a hair under $55M. I don't think there's any way that stays there. I think they'll absolutely convert salary to bonus and drop that down significantly. I think his cap number will drop down to $40M or so, perhaps even less.

2. Dak Prescott is the #2 cap hit, at $49.1M. That's with a base salary of $31M. Given the Cowboys are projected to be over the cap as of now, it wouldn't surprise me if they tried to bring his down. Problem for them is he's a FA after 2024, so they'd pretty much require an extension to lower his cap hit. And not sure that's what they want to do with him at the moment. This one will be interesting to watch.

3. #5 cap hit is Tannehill, at $36.6M. They are heavily over the cap, and he's owed a non-guaranteed $27M base salary. I think he's getting cut or traded. Though this one doesn't matter too much, because guys like Cousin/Ryan/Brady/Carr all have similar cap hits.

But if my understand of the tag is correct, if the Brown restructure Watson's deal and drop his cap hit even down to $40M (and I think they'll go lower than that), that alone would save the Ravens ~$3M in cap space, as it would lower the average down to $42.4M.

I think fans need to keep their eyes on what happens with Watson's contract and what happens with Dak's contract. They could impact the tag number for Lamar.
 

RavensMania

Staff Member
Administrator
Not official yet, and actually won't be official even when Ravens apply it.

It's average top 5 cap hits for the position group, but its finalized when FA "ends" (which FA doesn't really end, so its weird), which is usually mid-April.

I could be wrong on the mechanics, but if its the average of the top 5 QB cap hits, then as of today, it's $45.4M, which is what people have been estimating.

What I'm highly intrigued by is what happens if those cap hits change, and I 100% think they will:

1. For starters, the #1 cap hit is Watson, at a hair under $55M. I don't think there's any way that stays there. I think they'll absolutely convert salary to bonus and drop that down significantly. I think his cap number will drop down to $40M or so, perhaps even less.

2. Dak Prescott is the #2 cap hit, at $49.1M. That's with a base salary of $31M. Given the Cowboys are projected to be over the cap as of now, it wouldn't surprise me if they tried to bring his down. Problem for them is he's a FA after 2024, so they'd pretty much require an extension to lower his cap hit. And not sure that's what they want to do with him at the moment. This one will be interesting to watch.

3. #5 cap hit is Tannehill, at $36.6M. They are heavily over the cap, and he's owed a non-guaranteed $27M base salary. I think he's getting cut or traded. Though this one doesn't matter too much, because guys like Cousin/Ryan/Brady/Carr all have similar cap hits.

But if my understand of the tag is correct, if the Brown restructure Watson's deal and drop his cap hit even down to $40M (and I think they'll go lower than that), that alone would save the Ravens ~$3M in cap space, as it would lower the average down to $42.4M.

I think fans need to keep their eyes on what happens with Watson's contract and what happens with Dak's contract. They could impact the tag number for Lamar.
don't they use the top 5 cap hits from the previous season?
 

rmcjacket23

Ravens Ring of Honor
don't they use the top 5 cap hits from the previous season?
I don't believe so, no. Would be awesome if they do, though, since it would lower the number tremendously.

Top 5 cap hits from last season would only average out to $33.1M, which basically isn't much more than the non-exclusive tag.

Pretty sure its current year, and its not defined until later in the FA period.
 

rmcjacket23

Ravens Ring of Honor
don't they use the top 5 cap hits from the previous season?
OK so I found this also, which may explain it...
"The cost of the non-exclusive tag is calculated by averaging the top five cap hits at the position for the previous five years. That number is then adjusted proportionally to the salary cap for the upcoming season"

So it would be five year average of top 5 hits, but then I assume they take it as a % of the total cap for the current year.

The math doesn't add up to me though. If you take the average top 5 QB hits over a 5 year period, and put as % of total salary cap, it'll be right at about 15% of the cap.
15% of the 2023 cap number is ~$34M. Pretty sure that's not the accurate calculation.
 

rmcjacket23

Ravens Ring of Honor
Also this was Brian's tweet from yesterday...
These are the official non-exclusive tag numbers. For Lamar, this would be $32.416M. The Exclusive tag - average of top 5 QB Cap #’s as of right b4 the draft - is going to be in the $45M range.

Top 5 as of right before the draft makes sense, as that's how people are getting ~$45M right now. I think that comes down, though.
 

Davesta

Ravens Ring of Honor


Sooo do we get a auto comp pick if we let our pro bowler walk and he sign somewhere else? Anything will do..
 

RavensMania

Staff Member
Administrator
Also this was Brian's tweet from yesterday...
These are the official non-exclusive tag numbers. For Lamar, this would be $32.416M. The Exclusive tag - average of top 5 QB Cap #’s as of right b4 the draft - is going to be in the $45M range.

Top 5 as of right before the draft makes sense, as that's how people are getting ~$45M right now. I think that comes down, though.
I'm seeing that the estimate franchise tag (exclusive) for QB would be around 45.2m
 

gtalk12

Ravens Ring of Honor

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