#1 misconception on the playoff picture: We control our own destiny. For those who feel that we can never win when we control our own destiny, rest easy -
we don't
BR.com says the odds of winning out and not getting in are "microscopic". The key is HOU losing out and PIT winning out. While not likely, that doesn't seem microscopic.
Don't use the ESPN playoff machine. It lies. In the stated scenario, it has us losing to HOU on common games, but we'd be tied in common games. It would come down to strength of victory. I don't think is not calculating that correctly.I'm pretty sure someone posted the NYT calculator - which not only has a better interface, but more importantly seems to be correct.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/nfl-playoff-picture.html
So the stated scenario would then have to involve games which influence strength of victory, but from what I can see, the most likely outcomes give HOU the wild card. From what I can tell, the NYT engine gives a percent based on the number of scenarios - but is not based on the likelihood of that scenario coming to pass.
Bottome line: If we win Saturday - root hard against PIT (as if you need to be told that) - but also root hard for a HOU win. Absolutely need for the Browns game to be a simple win and get in and not have to scoreboard watch in week 17.