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The Well-Mannered Politics Thread

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JoeyFlex5

Hall of Famer
Canada is a cartel run region and Ireland is a hunky dory place in recent years? News to me.

In any case, look at France, Germany, any Scandanavian country, China (Asia is massive for opiates).

It's not like there's a little discrepency; it's so monumental that drugs aren't an explanation. People are more likely to steal or rob than they are to kill when it comes to drugs.

I'll also say the horribly ironic thing about the entire cartel situation is over 80% of all guns seized from cartels are American made.
I'm not referring to drug addicts killing people lol, I'm referring to the drug trade governing our biggest cities, a massive number of the murders come as a result of gang activity and he drug trade, when it comes to gang violence and drug trade homicides, entire nations pale in comparison to cities like Baltimore, Chicago, St. Louis, and Detroit.

Also, the point referencing cartels is that they fuel a drug trade in the US fiercely, far more than the U.K. Can be fueled by anyone, they don't live in the same landmass as the indigenous home of cocaine, it had nothing to do with any kind of cartel violence spilling over borders.

Cmon I know you're better than that lol, if that was my reason for citing those factors then I'd be an idiot.
 

29BmoreBird22

Staff Member
Moderator
Writer
I'm not referring to drug addicts killing people lol, I'm referring to the drug trade governing our biggest cities, a massive number of the murders come as a result of gang activity and he drug trade, when it comes to gang violence and drug trade homicides, entire nations pale in comparison to cities like Baltimore, Chicago, St. Louis, and Detroit.

Also, the point referencing cartels is that they fuel a drug trade in the US fiercely, far more than the U.K. Can be fueled by anyone, they don't live in the same landmass as the indigenous home of cocaine, it had nothing to do with any kind of cartel violence spilling over borders.

Cmon I know you're better than that lol, if that was my reason for citing those factors then I'd be an idiot.
That's what I was referring to- studies show that a very small minority of deaths are attributed to drugs in some shape or form.

I was trying to find a concrete answer for what percentage can be attributed to drugs and the high I found was 25% and the low was 10%.

I do think drug violence makes up a portion of the problem, but to credit it as the driving force or the biggest issue would very naive to me.
 

JoeyFlex5

Hall of Famer
That's what I was referring to- studies show that a very small minority of deaths are attributed to drugs in some shape or form.

I was trying to find a concrete answer for what percentage can be attributed to drugs and the high I found was 25% and the low was 10%.

I do think drug violence makes up a portion of the problem, but to credit it as the driving force or the biggest issue would very naive to me.
Well it can be extremely subjective as to what constitutes drug related violence, which blurs those lines, but the simple fact is that if you eliminate NYC, Chicago, Baltimore, DC, and Detroit, then a staggering percentage of murders disappear, and drug and gang culture is responsible for a mass majority in those cities. Without these absolutely absurd numbers from these cities our murder per capita would paint a much prettier picture.
 

52520Andrew

Pro Bowler
Yeah London had less than half the amount of murders in 2017 that Baltimore had. Sure they have a bit more this year than New York but remember New York is in the midst of crime as low as they have had in decades. But I guess that doesn't fit any propaganda network's narrative now does it?

Well it can be extremely subjective as to what constitutes drug related violence, which blurs those lines, but the simple fact is that if you eliminate NYC, Chicago, Baltimore, DC, and Detroit, then a staggering percentage of murders disappear, and drug and gang culture is responsible for a mass majority in those cities. Without these absolutely absurd numbers from these cities our murder per capita would paint a much prettier picture.

You sure about that?

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Source:
https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-is-london-really-deadlier-than-new-york
 

JoeyFlex5

Hall of Famer
Yeah London had less than half the amount of murders in 2017 that Baltimore had. Sure they have a bit more this year than New York but remember New York is in the midst of crime as low as they have had in decades. But I guess that doesn't fit any propaganda network's narrative now does it?



You sure about that?

8gAmv6bSAmYG6uxQcqFnuY_3ZEP2uq6OX5T76-u3bhcMKtxIlF15DXLuc_PBzoc65Xm2erTlDZkhiNjUo8QRpnqUmrQwdvjqeWQkpu5gcx2U_R54SSDvV60IrhMLqf0J4q2LB6AzoejL0bwudY1U9fcUiH_WOrnI8GGNXkXFxeX7RS05rJnI6YFB6p6Nv5J6jcLr7cM6miBI4c3GHBENw4b3lUDbuKNTi3TkYdlqtRQGKjAxbRSl860jMh1yUGjE7CXhc-5Dv1bbRJMdt68PMTNvdCJ1dEdHHMg4iLOCuKJsLQjWeLWO5nis7UGqXOOSfwou4zJqTKgotKfsjccBNwI1cqr2lx-yIr-RiLz51A7cfPoX9lwX26oEUiH9O-uHDJ0yRNi8pk6Ewt-btCSlbKdu9KBsZKLGANJAYC1pJgMybO-NwVcs2AHnGQaul7MXLSt85DG9spXfRcRFH78aG7CjjSC61c4b8Y_O-Ycuzw5a3h0cVdN1C1nFToC_XgjSe-7jeysT7YZ2v-CEe9YHbJKenCOERn9xRwhc4NHCyar-ekLO3z3vn2_qS4ECaGvEFQokKrTON4AxrgPoZZuw2NrOvH4A3uy7W6RTXME=w960-h540-no


Source:
https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-is-london-really-deadlier-than-new-york
Ok then, leave the NYC murders in the count and point still stands lol, which actually furthers said point. A few cities with rampant drug trade and gang activity make up a majority of US murders
 

JO_75

Hall of Famer
So the FBI raided Trump's lawyers but yet had the Florida School shooter in their sights all along and did nothing to stop them. Glad to see the FBI has their priorities straight. I seriously do not understand how the FBI visited that dude's house multiple times and even cleared him as not being a threat.
 

rossihunter2

Staff Member
Moderator
And hell while I'm at it wth is this??

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2018/0...kes-there-is-never-reason-to-carry-knife.html

London murders spiking. Without guns?? Tell me it aint so.

This just goes to show its never enough.

so a few things to bring into this conversation about knife crime in london...

1) it is a london problem not a UK problem which suggests that it isnt a universal problem throughout the UK
2) there has been a huge but unusual spike in knife crime without a specific attributable reason - the start of 2018 has been extra deadly but its not like there's been a major situational change that this has been caused by - this has not been a building trend but a surprising burst statistically
3) in the wake of the spike in knife crime (and other violent crimes) our government has implemented new rules that control the distribution and sale of knives - home deliveries for example are now being banned if bought online (i.e. the person selling the knives has to have seen you at some point), specific models of knives are being restricted and redefined to allow police greater powers to confiscate, and substances like acid are being restricted to over-18s and must only be carried with justifiable reasons (now the police will be able to confiscate even if there is no obvious immediate threat of harm)
4) an important point to know is that part of the reason this spike is so big is that our government has cut 21,000 police officers and significantly reduced the metropolitan police's community policing abilities
5) our government is still operating an economy built on policies of austerity and i imagine that, at least partially, that is responsible - there is currently a severe lack of jobs, affordable housing and there have been cuts to health services (which are all known contributors to rises in knife crime in London)

we shall see if this spike continues to rise - its incomparable though with the 90s and early 2000s in London and is the first significant rise since 2003 when knife crime started rapidly declining (albeit the rise in comparison still contributes to a much lower net crime rate overall) and I think with the "ruling" party's lack of a true majority in parliament and the significant inroads made by the opposition who are anti-austerity in the last election i have to think that austerity will have to end soon enough which should hopefully contribute to preventing a lot of instances of potential knife crime
 
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52520Andrew

Pro Bowler
Ok then, leave the NYC murders in the count and point still stands lol, which actually furthers said point. A few cities with rampant drug trade and gang activity make up a majority of US murders

I feel like you can make that statement about most places, gangs aren't a purely American invention. In fact gangs and drugs are the primary things being blamed for the London spike in crime.


The rest of this post doesn't apply to anyone, just me ranting about the media in general.

Part of me bringing New York up is that it is the primary comparison being used to London in a lot of these stories. Like London is seeing higher crime than normal and NYC is seeing much lower crime than normal. And even if you look in the numbers in the fox article, you see how London had less than half the number of homicides New York did(130 vs 290). So London at it's worst is comparable to NYC at it's best if I am being very nice to NYC.

But all the right seems to be getting worked up about London having crime and are pointing at it primarily as a means to argue against gun control. Like yeah there is a certain amount of crime that will never be able to be stopped and cities generally have more crime than rural areas but London is easily safer than many cities in the U.S. Like when was the last time London had a higher homicide rate than New York? Or Chicago? Or LA? It is kinda silly all these places are championing London around as an example of gun control not solving everything but fail to realize that London is generally a much safer place.

Would be like saying Aaron Rodgers is not as good as Deshone Kizer because Kizer had more passing yards last year. And yeah Rodgers was injured last year, that is the point. Any actual research to compare these cities will tell you London is the safer place on average.

And then you have the left who are championing this hurricane season already as above average with a likely impact from a major hurricane. Like do I think that has a decent chance at happening? Maybe, but there is a heck of a lot of certainty and after the year we had last year, it is just going to get people's expectations sky high. And then if nothing happens, people just discredit it all and won't take it seriously until the next storm hits.

Contrary to what the media often puts out, weather is far from a certain topic even a few days out in time. Part of it is just that we can't sample the atmosphere perfectly and any errors in the data put into weather models compounds on itself quite rapidly until you get 10 days out and don't know what will happen. There were model runs of hurricane Irma 10 days out that had it going out to sea, or into NYC, far from where the actual storm ended up. Granted this was way out in time and the NHC did a fantastic job forecasting Irma overall(They aren't dumb, their cone only goes 5 days out and has gotten a lot more accurate over the years), the amount of uncertainty when forecasting these types of storms has definitely gone down.

But I say this to illustrate that we don't know what things will be like that far into the future. If El Nino forms in the pacific, that could cause things to quiet down like in years past(at least before 2017) as El Nino has a history of suppressing hurricanes in the Atlantic. Or maybe things get a lot more favorable and we have a season like last year. We don't know this far out, even the people putting out the official predictions don't and would probably tell you that. That is why they update their predictions a couple times as time moves forward in June and in August.

But to the media none of that matters, the only thing that matters is pushing their narrative and getting clicks. And then if it looks like there is going to be a bad season, no one pays attention like last year until the big one hits because the media ends up crying wolf every other year.

TLDR: I am not a fan of the media in general and encourage people to find the facts themselves and come to their own conclusions as opposed to trusting a handful of people on only one side of the political spectrum.
 

rossihunter2

Staff Member
Moderator
The rest of this post doesn't apply to anyone, just me ranting about the media in general.

Part of me bringing New York up is that it is the primary comparison being used to London in a lot of these stories. Like London is seeing higher crime than normal and NYC is seeing much lower crime than normal. And even if you look in the numbers in the fox article, you see how London had less than half the number of homicides New York did(130 vs 290). So London at it's worst is comparable to NYC at it's best if I am being very nice to NYC.

But all the right seems to be getting worked up about London having crime and are pointing at it primarily as a means to argue against gun control. Like yeah there is a certain amount of crime that will never be able to be stopped and cities generally have more crime than rural areas but London is easily safer than many cities in the U.S. Like when was the last time London had a higher homicide rate than New York? Or Chicago? Or LA? It is kinda silly all these places are championing London around as an example of gun control not solving everything but fail to realize that London is generally a much safer place.

exactly...

the other thing to mention is that not only is london worse than its been for a long time and NYC at its best for a long time but that NYC is a notoriously "safe" city in the US and London is by far the worst place for violent crime in the UK (obviously other UK cities have gang/knife violence but not quite to the same degree)

so not only is london at its worst vs NYC at its best its also comparing the worst place in the UK vs one of the generally better places in the US for these kinds of figures...

the comparison only makes sense because you could regard them both as cultural capitals of their respective countries with similar population sizes but that comparison doesnt really make a fair US vs UK debate in terms of violence and violent crime
 

29BmoreBird22

Staff Member
Moderator
Writer
Well it can be extremely subjective as to what constitutes drug related violence, which blurs those lines, but the simple fact is that if you eliminate NYC, Chicago, Baltimore, DC, and Detroit, then a staggering percentage of murders disappear, and drug and gang culture is responsible for a mass majority in those cities. Without these absolutely absurd numbers from these cities our murder per capita would paint a much prettier picture.
I'm trying to remember the exact numbers on it, but it's not as drastic a shift as people might expect.

And you are right- it is hard to define, which is why I think we see a 10% to 25% range.
 

JoeyFlex5

Hall of Famer
I feel like you can make that statement about most places, gangs aren't a purely American invention. In fact gangs and drugs are the primary things being blamed for the London spike in crime.


The rest of this post doesn't apply to anyone, just me ranting about the media in general.

Part of me bringing New York up is that it is the primary comparison being used to London in a lot of these stories. Like London is seeing higher crime than normal and NYC is seeing much lower crime than normal. And even if you look in the numbers in the fox article, you see how London had less than half the number of homicides New York did(130 vs 290). So London at it's worst is comparable to NYC at it's best if I am being very nice to NYC.

But all the right seems to be getting worked up about London having crime and are pointing at it primarily as a means to argue against gun control. Like yeah there is a certain amount of crime that will never be able to be stopped and cities generally have more crime than rural areas but London is easily safer than many cities in the U.S. Like when was the last time London had a higher homicide rate than New York? Or Chicago? Or LA? It is kinda silly all these places are championing London around as an example of gun control not solving everything but fail to realize that London is generally a much safer place.

Would be like saying Aaron Rodgers is not as good as Deshone Kizer because Kizer had more passing yards last year. And yeah Rodgers was injured last year, that is the point. Any actual research to compare these cities will tell you London is the safer place on average.

And then you have the left who are championing this hurricane season already as above average with a likely impact from a major hurricane. Like do I think that has a decent chance at happening? Maybe, but there is a heck of a lot of certainty and after the year we had last year, it is just going to get people's expectations sky high. And then if nothing happens, people just discredit it all and won't take it seriously until the next storm hits.

Contrary to what the media often puts out, weather is far from a certain topic even a few days out in time. Part of it is just that we can't sample the atmosphere perfectly and any errors in the data put into weather models compounds on itself quite rapidly until you get 10 days out and don't know what will happen. There were model runs of hurricane Irma 10 days out that had it going out to sea, or into NYC, far from where the actual storm ended up. Granted this was way out in time and the NHC did a fantastic job forecasting Irma overall(They aren't dumb, their cone only goes 5 days out and has gotten a lot more accurate over the years), the amount of uncertainty when forecasting these types of storms has definitely gone down.

But I say this to illustrate that we don't know what things will be like that far into the future. If El Nino forms in the pacific, that could cause things to quiet down like in years past(at least before 2017) as El Nino has a history of suppressing hurricanes in the Atlantic. Or maybe things get a lot more favorable and we have a season like last year. We don't know this far out, even the people putting out the official predictions don't and would probably tell you that. That is why they update their predictions a couple times as time moves forward in June and in August.

But to the media none of that matters, the only thing that matters is pushing their narrative and getting clicks. And then if it looks like there is going to be a bad season, no one pays attention like last year until the big one hits because the media ends up crying wolf every other year.

TLDR: I am not a fan of the media in general and encourage people to find the facts themselves and come to their own conclusions as opposed to trusting a handful of people on only one side of the political spectrum.
I never meant to even bring up a NYC debate, just the issue of the drug trade in a few major cities being the driving force behind our murder count
 

JoeyFlex5

Hall of Famer
I'm trying to remember the exact numbers on it, but it's not as drastic a shift as people might expect.

And you are right- it is hard to define, which is why I think we see a 10% to 25% range.
I think it's much harder to define than that, MUCH harder. Stats are juked in these disaster cities so severely that corner beefs involving the drug trade are written off as just senseless killings, witness killings aren't considered drug related, hell im willing to bet that the open season in Chicago is just written off as hoodlums shooting it up, when in reality it's almost entirely drug related
 

rossihunter2

Staff Member
Moderator
I never meant to even bring up a NYC debate, just the issue of the drug trade in a few major cities being the driving force behind our murder count

oh ok - the only reason i kinda ragged on was because ive seen so many people in the US bring up gun laws etc. and guns as a relevant point of debate in the rise in knife crime in london when it has absolutely nothing to do with the violence in london so i kind of got a bit touchy lol
 

JoeyFlex5

Hall of Famer
And just like last years chemical bombings, there is zero confirmation or proof from any side, and I hate being a conspiracy theorist, but with trump saying he's withdrawing from Syria entirely, it doesn't make sense for Assad to almost instantly gas civilians. I almost feel that the rebels could very possibly have gassed innocents to draw US troops back in, even if t meant gassing some of their own.

I almost want trump to say "fuck it, we did this a year ago, here we are again, either I bomb the living piss out of every Assad loyalist or I wash my hands of this mess. Putin, control ya boy or you finna catch this fade" then investigate the rebels, any findings of chemical weapons get destroyed and you tell the rebels to stand down if you don't wanna get gassed.

If the civil war ends and the gassing continues, then you make a move, then it's no question who th guilty party is. I want the son of a bitch punished for his crimes but not at the risk of destabilizing the whole world.
 

Willbacker

Ravens Ring of Honor
oh ok - the only reason i kinda ragged on was because ive seen so many people in the US bring up gun laws etc. and guns as a relevant point of debate in the rise in knife crime in london when it has absolutely nothing to do with the violence in london so i kind of got a bit touchy lol

My point is that murders still happen even w/o guns and then after gun control the politicians will go for more whereas you cant own pistols or knives. They take one thing and then work for the next. Next it will be anything pointy like a screwdriver or a fork.
 

rossihunter2

Staff Member
Moderator
My point is that murders still happen even w/o guns and then after gun control the politicians will go for more whereas you cant own pistols or knives. They take one thing and then work for the next. Next it will be anything pointy like a screwdriver or a fork.

And my point is that anyone who brings guns up as a relevant point in London crime statistics obviously has no understanding of when/why/what is going on here
 

29BmoreBird22

Staff Member
Moderator
Writer
I think it's much harder to define than that, MUCH harder. Stats are juked in these disaster cities so severely that corner beefs involving the drug trade are written off as just senseless killings, witness killings aren't considered drug related, hell im willing to bet that the open season in Chicago is just written off as hoodlums shooting it up, when in reality it's almost entirely drug related
This will probably only go in circles, but there's a reason it's a 15% variant- it is hard to estimate, but we aren't talking 50%, 60%. Researches put A LOT of effort into helping to define a range and I would take 25% as a very good high.
 

Inqui

Pro Bowler
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-43747211

Trump looking at rejoining the TPP. Probably the right call, though it'll be harder to join a multilateral bloc "on our terms" than it was to spearhead it in the first place. And if he's interested in hedging against Chinese influence in the most dynamic and fast-growing region in the world he probably shouldn't have bailed either.
 
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