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The Well-Mannered Politics Thread
- Thread starter usmccharles
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Inqui
Pro Bowler
I never said things will go back to normal. But some countries will suffer worse from it than others and I've already been over the ones who'll get out from it less badly. Like I say, I hope you'll be around in the future to talk about how to strengthen mental health facilities, suicide prevention and the like.
I'm not talking about cases that went unreported. The death rates are harder to gauge for that reason so that's why I went with a more conservative 1% rather than the official rates, which are closer to 4% or 6%. What I'm talking about is abnormal deaths or excess deaths. How they work is that if you have 10 people die every year, 3 people die of Covid one year and you have 15 deaths that year, you probably had 2 people die of Covid or something related to Covid that isn't coming up in the official Covid stats (again, the effect of the virus isn't just deaths). That's what we're seeing around the world right now.
https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid
You're right as well that population density is a huge factor in the spread, as are things like New York getting it worse than LA because they use public transport more. Sweden's actually a deceptively big country, with 22.2 people per sq km, compared with Finland's 15, Norway's 38 and Denmark's 134. Ideally you'd have a parallel universe where the same country or region runs a different thing in each universe because then you're only changing one factor. The Nordics (Iceland aside but there are still lessons about what you can do well) are almost as close as you're going to get because they have similar cultures, institutions, first case dates (Sweden got it quite a bit later) and populations (again Sweden aside but...).
Herd immunity is a sketchy concept at best because no one's really sure at what point it kicks in. Sweden seems to be assuming 60% have to get it and become immune, which is a lot of deaths and an even more overwhelmed system at a death rate of 1% (that's nearly 2 million dead in the US from Covid alone) but for other infectious diseases herd immunity is closer to 95% (which is why anti-vaxxers harm society). And that assumes the virus doesn't mutate, which the science still isn't settled on.
Ohio and Michigan were already in lockdown so future deaths is more relevant since the point of not coming back too early is to limit (or ideally prevent) the second wave. Like what @allblackraven and I were discussing about Europe. At any rate, Michigan's higher amount of cases means they're more at risk of reopening too early. We've been here before and you can see how stricter vs more lenient policies work overall.
https://www.economist.com/graphic-d...social-distancing-can-be-good-for-the-economy
Lockdowns work in the long run. There's a reason they've been humanity's big gun against major pandemics since at least the Black Plague.
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Willbacker
Ravens Ring of Honor
I never said things will go back to normal. But some countries will suffer worse from it than others and I've already been over the ones who'll get out from it less badly. Like I say, I hope you'll be around in the future to talk about how to strengthen mental health facilities, suicide prevention and the like.
I'm not talking about cases that went unreported. The death rates are harder to gauge for that reason so that's why I went with a more conservative 1% rather than the official rates, which are closer to 4% or 6%. What I'm talking about is abnormal deaths or excess deaths. How they work is that if you have 10 people die every year, 3 people die of Covid one year and you have 15 deaths that year, you probably had 2 people die of Covid or something related to Covid that isn't coming up in the official Covid stats (again, the effect of the virus isn't just deaths). That's what we're seeing around the world right now.
https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid
You're right as well that population density is a huge factor in the spread, as are things like New York getting it worse than LA because they use public transport more. Sweden's actually a deceptively big country, with 22.2 people per sq km, compared with Finland's 15, Norway's 38 and Denmark's 134. Ideally you'd have a parallel universe where the same country or region runs a different thing in each universe because then you're only changing one factor. The Nordics (Iceland aside but there are still lessons about what you can do well) are almost as close as you're going to get because they have similar cultures, institutions, first case dates (Sweden got it quite a bit later) and populations (again Sweden aside but...).
Herd immunity is a sketchy concept at best because no one's really sure at what point it kicks in. Sweden seems to be assuming 60% have to get it and become immune, which is a lot of deaths and an even more overwhelmed system at a death rate of 1% (that's nearly 2 million dead in the US from Covid alone) but for other infectious diseases herd immunity is closer to 95% (which is why anti-vaxxers harm society). And that assumes the virus doesn't mutate, which the science still isn't settled on.
Ohio and Michigan were already in lockdown so future deaths is more relevant since the point of not coming back too early is to limit (or ideally prevent) the second wave. Like what @allblackraven and I were discussing about Europe. At any rate, Michigan's higher amount of cases means they're more at risk of reopening too early. We've been here before and you can see how stricter vs more lenient policies work overall.
https://www.economist.com/graphic-d...social-distancing-can-be-good-for-the-economy
Lockdowns work in the long run. There's a reason they've been humanity's big gun against major pandemics since at least the Black Plague.
When they're talking about lockdowns with stricter and more lenient policies in your graph it is relating to how fast they started stricter social distancing. These cities still opened up relatively quickly tho. This graph below comes from National Geographic and each city is a 24 week timeline. This is the 2nd wave since the 1st wave was barely felt. So our 1st wave and their 1st wave was way worlds diffrent when you showed that one earlier graph which I feel was disingeniuos since they really had no idea of what was coming. We do.
We're already in at least our 10th week and have flattened the curve and have been on a downward trend since Apr 20th which was 4 weeks ago. I already showed you stats in the United States that showed you lockdown and open states.
Now I want to get into the comparisons of the disease with the timeline. I'm sure we can fully agree that medicine and technology right now are so far ahead of 1918 we really shouldn't even be comparing. They didnt even know what a virus was back then except they knew the basics that it was transferred by spitting,saliva, stuff like that. The Spanish Flu also was way diffrent on who it killed since it was seeming to take healthy people that were in their 20's thru 40's. It was also more deadly where peoples faces turned blue and frothy blood was coming out their ears,nose and mouth. Lot more scary than covid imo. It was also a war time era so the cities on the east coast got hit first mainly from returning servicemen so of course a lot of the more western cities reacted quicker cuz of info but the war also caused lack of medical personel. So the lockdowns made sense as they did for covid-19 but it also makes sense to open now to get the economy going. See there is no statistics even back then for deaths related to lockdown. They just get labeled as suicide,overdose,whatever. Read this post from @Sami84 . Not sure if you have but its very important. Also please consider financial ruin,starvation and poverty which is just as bad as death.
My question is how long do we stay shutdown in your opinion. Till the virus disappears? A vaccine is created? How long should people suffer in other ways?
allblackraven
Hall of Famer
When you say downward trend - what were the cumulative numbers before, if 24,000 new cases were reported on Friday?
Willbacker
Ravens Ring of Honor
I should have more clarified. I was talking about death totals by week. You're gonna have flareups but lets say you have a lockdown in the city. Is fresh air or people breathing off a central air unit better? Why is it a big box retailer can be open but a small business can't? Its shit like that that pisses me off. Joggers getting threatened by mayors. Not being able to go to drive in church services. A governor not allowing citizens to buy plants or home improvement items like paint. A man can't play catch with his daughter
https://www.nydailynews.com/coronav...0200408-plfk64splfc4dbcozwk3ndk63e-story.html
This is just the tip bro. I just dont understand why you guys dont get it. The financial and mental health for some. People can say "Oh well the govt will take care of you". Thats not what people want. They are watching their dreams get squashed. They have kids but are being told they're not essential. All you guys are doing are tunnelvisioning one thing and not understanding or caring about the ramifications from it.
Willbacker
Ravens Ring of Honor
Also Happy Memorial Day guys.
allblackraven
Hall of Famer
I agree that some of that sounds stupid under normal circumstances but we are now going back to what we talked about in March - the anger is directed at the wrong address. The situation was mishandled million% by federal govt, Congress, Senate and president, state authorities are left to deal with consequences of that fuck up. Isolation (in other countries) worked where it was done early but if it wasn't, the answer isn't opening early - there's just too much infection around to be able to stay safe. Economic impact then would have been felt less, too. Not to mention hundreds of billions of dollars were pumped into big banks and big business again (just like Obama did), while people are left with one time $1200 deposit, no coherent plan and direction and a lot of misdirection, misinformation and lies.
It was always going to be tough but it didn't have to turn into complete disaster.
cobrajet
Hall of Famer
That video scares the hell out of me. Honestly I don’t think I will take this vaccine. I think I will just keep taking my vitamin C, elderberry, echinacea, zinc, and astragalus to boost my immune system. I also try to go outside and get some sunlight and exercise every day. I heard keeping yourself in the house and sanitizing everything just suppresses your immune system. Sami, Dr.Butar did not say anything about yearly flu vaccines. I get one every year, are they okay? Do you have any info on those?
please dont listen to sami - he's talking absolute horse shit - please dont stop getting flu shots and please dont turn down a vaccine out of conspiracy theory fears...
dr butar has been disavowed multiple times for peddling dangerous theories and making money off scams
he was involved in pyramid schemes and has been numerously reprimanded (and should have lost his licence - which was given to him dubiously in the first place)
his medical theories are not founded in any science or any decent medical practice and im worried that you might believe him without understanding that he has no legitimate medical qualifications and a history of malpractice over more than a decade and a half
he is part of a massive misinformation campaign that is endangering lives
Sami84
Ravens Ring of Honor
To rossi.Actually no. Dr Buttar is being defamed by google wikepedia and co because they work for the WHO narrative. shame on you. You're getting your information from only the WHO narrative as online you can't get the truth. I know the truth as a DR and you need to honestly shove your ego up your ass. You're not getting true information because the information you're seeing now is controlled and the honest doctors such as myself who are trying to have a voice are being silenced by the mainstream who are OWNED by the corporations. You do your scouting videos, I know medicine and I know what is HOGWASH. What is happening here is bullying by silicon valley and big pharma ( nothing new). Google is not the place to get information nor youtube for that matter. Thankfully, I never needed either as I see through BS and the censorship of the truth of incredibly decent and very experienced doctors who have no agenda other than integrity.
@cobrajet Now that is done with., Cobrajet, i would not recomend a flu vaccine if you build a good immune system. I also would suggest adding colostrum which creates optimal cytokine responses to any infection. Also, I suggest you go to londonreal.tv and check out the interview with dr buttar and 150 doctors on zoom.
Also get yourself some magnesium oil spray combined with MSM. Helps the synergy of vitamin D and include a good k2 and k4 supplement. Limit your k1 as that that can lead to clotting(not good for thrombosis). I recommend throne research K complex
continue to go outside and get sunshine
Vitamin D and its synthesis is the basis for great health. If you have ANY questions please PM me.Flu vaccines can make you suseptible to coronavirus issues. ( of any strain) they are worthless IMO and I never recommend it to anyone. The consensus of honest doctors would tell you the same. Depending on the type of flu vaccine there are a variation of substances but truthfully, I see 0 benefit, if you eat well, are fit and get your correct nutrition.
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Sami84
Ravens Ring of Honor
also @cobrajet
Overhand washing removes good flora on your skin. I suggest you get yourself a simple tea tree oil cleanser or manuka cleansing soap and wash your hands 1-3 times a day at most.
Don't overwash, it actually acts like an antibiotic which much like with your gut flora, ain't a good idea.
Trust your body, build its immunity. It's the only true defense.
you can PM me anytime
Overhand washing removes good flora on your skin. I suggest you get yourself a simple tea tree oil cleanser or manuka cleansing soap and wash your hands 1-3 times a day at most.
Don't overwash, it actually acts like an antibiotic which much like with your gut flora, ain't a good idea.
Trust your body, build its immunity. It's the only true defense.
you can PM me anytime
allblackraven
Hall of Famer
Not to mention procession of characters in those videos...
Sami84
Ravens Ring of Honor
Viruses will continue to kill people till the dawn of time with or without vaccines. People need to accept it's part of life. Some viruses expire in time and some stay for centuries and evolve. Life needs to go on as normal, like with any virus in history, pre and since. Vaccines will never be effective for coronaviruses and have long term ramifications, some subtle, some not so. NOT WORTH IT
More people get virus = more effective immunology = less severe symptoms, baselines etc.
That's how it's always worked. There is NO correlation of worthwhile speculation as it pertains to a viruses lifespan in this world. Some falter away and some stay and some build new strains.
Sami84
Ravens Ring of Honor
You mean real people who don't play games? Yeah, you go listen to your politicians. I focus on the truth not what you've been trained to believe in clearly. What has substance, not what you've been trained to believe by default. I like people who see fascism and aren't soft spoken about exposing it.
allblackraven
Hall of Famer
You are ridiculous.
Sami84
Ravens Ring of Honor
Well, as it's coming from someone who doesn't understand how this world is working, I'll take that as a compliment.
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