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The Well-Mannered Politics Thread

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Inqui

Inqui

Pro Bowler
rossihunter2 said:
i literally am still in disbelief - when im not crying (like literally crying) - im not sure we can do 5 more years of this
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With the SNP gaining ground and Northern Ireland getting sold up the creek in the deal that got voted down earlier this year, Boris Johnson may well be the last PM of the United Kingdom. I've seen a lot of people give Tony Blair shit, but I find it hard to believe he doesn't win comfortably.

The pound soared once the exit poll was released, but if I had money I'd be shorting the bejeezus out of that. I feel like the markets have forgotten who'd come out worse off from a decoupling with the continent (in the short to medium term at the very least).

With that said, if I can offer a more optimistic voice Brexit may not all be doom and gloom. NZ's a case study in how a crisis can be an opportunity (in our case said crisis was in part due to an economic split with the UK but also years of misguided protectionist economic policy with an eye to restoring post-WWII greatness). And if the UK can get similarly good at quickly striking deals that don't sell out your own interests (ie, not being afraid to tell Trump to get bent if his administration wants to push US food standards on you guys and so on) and if Boris got the hint about the past decade of austerity not working (I've got no love for or faith in the guy but once Brexit's done he neglects his new constituencies at his own peril) there may be opportunities in the longer term. It's never easy - during our own reforms the news was filled with farmers in tears but now with hindsight no one here would change a thing.

And of course you'd have to imagine Labour will have to revamp themselves now. They can finally move on from Corbyn, which really they should have done in 2017.
 
rossihunter2

rossihunter2

Staff Member
Moderator
Inqui said:
With the SNP gaining ground and Northern Ireland getting sold up the creek in the deal that got voted down earlier this year, Boris Johnson may well be the last PM of the United Kingdom. I've seen a lot of people give Tony Blair shit, but I find it hard to believe he doesn't win comfortably.

The pound soared once the exit poll was released, but if I had money I'd be shorting the bejeezus out of that. I feel like the markets have forgotten who'd come out worse off from a decoupling with the continent (in the short to medium term at the very least).

With that said, if I can offer a more optimistic voice Brexit may not all be doom and gloom. NZ's a case study in how a crisis can be an opportunity (in our case said crisis was in part due to an economic split with the UK but also years of misguided protectionist economic policy with an eye to restoring post-WWII greatness). And if the UK can get similarly good at quickly striking deals that don't sell out your own interests (ie, not being afraid to tell Trump to get bent if his administration wants to push US food standards on you guys and so on) and if Boris got the hint about the past decade of austerity not working (I've got no love for or faith in the guy but once Brexit's done he neglects his new constituencies at his own peril) there may be opportunities in the longer term. It's never easy - during our own reforms the news was filled with farmers in tears but now with hindsight no one here would change a thing.

And of course you'd have to imagine Labour will have to revamp themselves now. They can finally move on from Corbyn, which really they should have done in 2017.
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the problem is its not really about the economy on a basic level - the conservatives have not been helming a growing economy even before brexit

it's the other things that are the biggest problem for me right now - the conservative domestic policy is an absolute shambles - austerity is literally killing people and the size of this majority basically gives boris carte blanche to do whatever he wants - they've already cosied up to far right actors and pulled on anti-immigrant and anti-muslim rhetoric and they've not been held accountable - and they wont be anymore

young people have been shafted - im now going to have spent the entirety of my adult life so far and most of my teenage years under a conservative (or conservative run coalition) government with austerity policies that are massively widening income inequality - there's no housing, there's no funding in our healthcare, there've been huge cuts on benefits, massive increases in student debt, fewer full-time jobs available and incredibly low targets on dealing with climate change and dogwhistles everywhere
 
JO_75

JO_75

Hall of Famer
I'm so sick of Mike Bloomberg advertisements....... guessing the Democrats are going to start trotting him out there over Biden and Warren.
 
Dom McRaven

Dom McRaven

Hall of Famer
JO_75 said:
I'm so sick of Mike Bloomberg advertisements....... guessing the Democrats are going to start trotting him out there over Biden and Warren.
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Like, he doesn't inspire confidence at all. At this point, I don't give AF about which Democrat will be the nominee. My personal preference? Biden............only for the simple fact that the presidential debate between him and Trump will have a comedic value of biblical proportions in which the world have never before seen.
 
Willbacker

Willbacker

Ravens Ring of Honor
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/china-phase-2-trade-deal

Just keeps wheeling and dealing. Looks like China is agreeing on 40-50 billion of agriculture purchases which again helps our farmers and most importantly China agrees not to manipulate their currency. We.ve done new trade deals with Japan, the USMCA and are now making headway with China. All this while Trump is being impeached lol.
 
JO_75

JO_75

Hall of Famer
Willbacker said:
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/china-phase-2-trade-deal

Just keeps wheeling and dealing. Looks like China is agreeing on 40-50 billion of agriculture purchases which again helps our farmers and most importantly China agrees not to manipulate their currency. We.ve done new trade deals with Japan, the USMCA and are now making headway with China. All this while Trump is being impeached lol.
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How dare Trump help our farmers, do new trade deals and put America first. The democrats are just a laughing stock at this point. Trump is going to win in 2020 and they will try another fake scandal to get him out before he begins his second term lol.
 
Inqui

Inqui

Pro Bowler
Willbacker said:
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/china-phase-2-trade-deal

Just keeps wheeling and dealing. Looks like China is agreeing on 40-50 billion of agriculture purchases which again helps our farmers and most importantly China agrees not to manipulate their currency. We.ve done new trade deals with Japan, the USMCA and are now making headway with China. All this while Trump is being impeached lol.
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I know this won't change anyone's mind, but I actually more or less predicted that China deal back in May.

Inqui said:
But I'm sticking with my prediction that they'll strike a deal this year (maybe next year at a push if Trump wants to time it to the election cycle) that may look nice but it won't cover any of the substantial issues that have been complained about over the past several years. China will agree to buy a bunch of things or give token market access to a sector that's already established or something like that. Happy enough to be wrong, but I don't see any eventual payoff being worth the cost of the trade war to date (again as I've been saying for some time about trade wars). Not unlike NAFTA or the North Korea deals.
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The previous version of that deal included improved US access into the financial services sector, which it looks like China's negotiated out of the deal (not that it makes much difference because it's like giving a foreign search engine the freedom to compete with Google and Bing). The currency manipulation thing requires a slight tangent because I would have predicted that too had it been an issue at the time. Basically China keeps its yuan pegged to the US dollar, so as of earlier this year they kept it no weaker than 7 yuan to one USD (a high number means a weak yuan, which is good for their exporters but bad for their importers). They only started breaking that peg in August as a result of a tariff hike, so that provision gets things back to where they were six months ago. Even giving the purchases the benefit of the doubt (https://www.ft.com/content/1fc771f0-1de4-11ea-97df-cc63de1d73f4) the deal looks nice and shiny but the only thing it does to both economies (and the world economy) is prevent things from getting worse by preventing further escalations in the trade war.

The Japan deal's good, but in a way it sums up my frustration with this administration. It seems to be a good deal, but how much better would it be to do the same deal with Australia, NZ, Canada, Mexico, Chile, Singapore, Peru, Malaysia, Vietnam and Brunei as well? But only for the next Democrat president to pull out because they don't like Trump? Because that's essentially what happened with the TPP. Multilateralism is one of the great post-war innovations of world politics and it's been instrumental to the global peace and prosperity we've seen and that people take for granted but it seems to be a dying art.
 
Willbacker

Willbacker

Ravens Ring of Honor
Inqui said:
I know this won't change anyone's mind, but I actually more or less predicted that China deal back in May.


The previous version of that deal included improved US access into the financial services sector, which it looks like China's negotiated out of the deal (not that it makes much difference because it's like giving a foreign search engine the freedom to compete with Google and Bing). The currency manipulation thing requires a slight tangent because I would have predicted that too had it been an issue at the time. Basically China keeps its yuan pegged to the US dollar, so as of earlier this year they kept it no weaker than 7 yuan to one USD (a high number means a weak yuan, which is good for their exporters but bad for their importers). They only started breaking that peg in August as a result of a tariff hike, so that provision gets things back to where they were six months ago. Even giving the purchases the benefit of the doubt (https://www.ft.com/content/1fc771f0-1de4-11ea-97df-cc63de1d73f4) the deal looks nice and shiny but the only thing it does to both economies (and the world economy) is prevent things from getting worse by preventing further escalations in the trade war.

The Japan deal's good, but in a way it sums up my frustration with this administration. It seems to be a good deal, but how much better would it be to do the same deal with Australia, NZ, Canada, Mexico, Chile, Singapore, Peru, Malaysia, Vietnam and Brunei as well? But only for the next Democrat president to pull out because they don't like Trump? Because that's essentially what happened with the TPP. Multilateralism is one of the great post-war innovations of world politics and it's been instrumental to the global peace and prosperity we've seen and that people take for granted but it seems to be a dying art.
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sult.jpg


You hit it pretty good. Remember tho this is only Phase 1 but I really believe decreasing tariffs partially and not adding on to the other 160 billion is a major boom to our retail sector. Good for the holidays!!
 
JO_75

JO_75

Hall of Famer
Impeachment Day is here and now we wait and see if the Democrats get their way after whining and crying because they didn't get their way in 2016. It's funny how most think he will be impeached if they get the votes but even if they vote for Impeachment, the senate won't allow the Democrats to impeach Trump. This should be an interesting day in America.
 
Willbacker

Willbacker

Ravens Ring of Honor
JO_75 said:
Impeachment Day is here and now we wait and see if the Democrats get their way after whining and crying because they didn't get their way in 2016. It's funny how most think he will be impeached if they get the votes but even if they vote for Impeachment, the senate won't allow the Democrats to impeach Trump. This should be an interesting day in America.
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Yep our forefathers wanted endless investigations and partisan impeachment at least according to Pelosi. No he will be impeached JO just not convicted. I believe they will pay their price in the end for their deceitful behavior.
 
JO_75

JO_75

Hall of Famer
Willbacker said:
Yep our forefathers wanted endless investigations and partisan impeachment at least according to Pelosi. No he will be impeached JO just not convicted. I believe they will pay their price in the end for their deceitful behavior.
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I just don't think the votes will be there when it's all set & done. We already had a NJ senator flip parties to Republican, and it seems like things are leaning more against impeachment. It just sucks that they aren't letting us voters determine this in the election next year, it feels they are trying to take our right to vote away, and they are essentially scared at this point. Trump is ahead in polls when compared to the other democrats in the running, they know this is the only way to beat him.
 
JO_75

JO_75

Hall of Famer
Trump was Impeached.... congrats Dems on getting your way after nearly 4 years. You also took America's right to vote away by doing this. Let the American People decide this, not your whiny attitude because you didn't get your way

Please Senate do the right thing and keep him in office.
 
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