The Random Thought Thread

[BoredMarine13]

Lmao I knew he wouldn't like this when I saw it in the trailer

lol do they even get a say or does the NFL own them

 

[Davesta]

Internet remains undefeated.

 

[Old Bay]

$900 Million Officially Slips Through John Elway's Fingers As Rob Walton Agrees To Buy The Broncos For $4.5 Billion | Celebrity Net Worth

$930 Million Officially Slips Through John Elway's Fingers As Rob Walton Agrees To Buy The Broncos For $4.65 Billion

John Elway's family may want to give him a bit of space for the next few days/weeks/months. Maybe get him a therapy dog or sign him up for Talk Space. Disconnect the wifi and cancel cable. Whatever it takes to get his mind off the fact that a $930 million payday is about to officially slip...

www.celebritynetworth.com

 

[allblackraven]

$900 Million Officially Slips Through John Elway's Fingers As Rob Walton Agrees To Buy The Broncos For $4.5 Billion | Celebrity Net Worth

$930 Million Officially Slips Through John Elway's Fingers As Rob Walton Agrees To Buy The Broncos For $4.65 Billion

John Elway's family may want to give him a bit of space for the next few days/weeks/months. Maybe get him a therapy dog or sign him up for Talk Space. Disconnect the wifi and cancel cable. Whatever it takes to get his mind off the fact that a $930 million payday is about to officially slip...

www.celebritynetworth.com

Ooops...

 

[JO_75]

Now we only get bad info from Schefter.

 

[Adreme]

I am completely convinced Watson is not playing in 2022 and that the Browns now are stuck with a 4 year 229 million dollar contract and I feel no sympathy for them because they knew what they were getting into.

 

[RavensMania]

Now we only get bad info from Schefter.

well it's about time. Wonder where J.. is going to end up.

 

[rmcjacket23]

I am completely convinced Watson is not playing in 2022 and that the Browns now are stuck with a 4 year 229 million dollar contract and I feel no sympathy for them because they knew what they were getting into.

1. If he isn't playing in 2022, it won't cost the Browns much, because his cap hit isn't that big and they already structured it so he'd lose as small amount as possible.
2. I really don't understand why people are concerned about the Browns' position. It's actually pretty risk-free if you think about it.
If he gets suspended, he doesn't get paid. That's true if it's for one year, two years, 10 years. It doesn't matter. If the NFL decides to black-ball him and indefinitely suspend him, then the Browns don't pay. They get most of their cap space back, and they move on to a different QB. And if his suspension eventually ends, they'll control is rights. By that time, the public will have stopped caring (realistically they'll stop caring by about Labor Day this year, but that's besides the point).
People act like the Browns are going to have to pay him $240M to never play. Won't happen. It'll happen if he gets injured, but not if he gets suspended.
It's precisely the reason why the NFL has basically already said they're not likely to go the "Commissioner exempt" list again, or if they do, it won't be beyond 2022. Because that list gets Watson paid, and they already know they look bad paying the guy to not play.

The Browns "risk" is capped at two things... the draft picks they gave up to get him, which they won't get back, and the $45M signing bonus they gave him. Both are substantial, but not the kind of things that have to kill a franchise by any stretch of the imagination.
And the signing bonus would at least have a chance of being clawed back, depending on when it's paid out and how well they can arbitrate.

I'll give the Browns credit for one thing... the structure of his deal is actually quite good for them. First off, on a $230M contract, a $45M signing bonus is actually quite small. Second, they just hit him with large, flat base salaries for the following four years. So any suspension will cut directly into that, so he's not shielded from comp beyond year 1.
Plus, it allows them to restructure his deals continuously as long as they want, since the dead money on the bonuses is actually quite small.

 

[Adreme]

1. If he isn't playing in 2022, it won't cost the Browns much, because his cap hit isn't that big and they already structured it so he'd lose as small amount as possible.
2. I really don't understand why people are concerned about the Browns' position. It's actually pretty risk-free if you think about it.
If he gets suspended, he doesn't get paid. That's true if it's for one year, two years, 10 years. It doesn't matter. If the NFL decides to black-ball him and indefinitely suspend him, then the Browns don't pay. They get most of their cap space back, and they move on to a different QB. And if his suspension eventually ends, they'll control is rights. By that time, the public will have stopped caring (realistically they'll stop caring by about Labor Day this year, but that's besides the point).
People act like the Browns are going to have to pay him $240M to never play. Won't happen. It'll happen if he gets injured, but not if he gets suspended.
It's precisely the reason why the NFL has basically already said they're not likely to go the "Commissioner exempt" list again, or if they do, it won't be beyond 2022. Because that list gets Watson paid, and they already know they look bad paying the guy to not play.

The Browns "risk" is capped at two things... the draft picks they gave up to get him, which they won't get back, and the $45M signing bonus they gave him. Both are substantial, but not the kind of things that have to kill a franchise by any stretch of the imagination.
And the signing bonus would at least have a chance of being clawed back, depending on when it's paid out and how well they can arbitrate.

Actually it is the opposite if he gets suspended this year. If he had a bigger salary it would be good for the Browns if he got suspended this year because they would save money on his cap hit. Unfortunately when he gets suspended for 2022 the Browns will only get 1m back in cap space because they put most this years salary in signing bonus. This means that, provided he plays in 2023, they are paying him 4 years 229m or 57.25m per year to play QB for them. They ONLY come out ahead if he is suspended beyond this year.

So they traded picks and are going to, after this year, have the largest QB contract in history, so now they have to build a roster without draft picks and with, effectively, the largest QB contract in history by a wide margin.

Edit: I guess to be technical there is also 9m in bonus on this year so it would technically be 4 years 220m or 55m per year on average which is still, again, by far the largest QB contract in history plus 9m cap hit for a year he wont play.

 

[rmcjacket23]

Actually it is the opposite if he gets suspended this year. If he had a bigger salary it would be good for the Browns if he got suspended this year because they would save money on his cap hit. Unfortunately when he gets suspended for 2022 the Browns will only get 1m back in cap space because they put most this years salary in signing bonus. This means that, provided he plays in 2023, they are paying him 4 years 229m or 57.25m per year to play QB for them. They ONLY come out ahead if he is suspended beyond this year.

So they traded picks and are going to, after this year, have the largest QB contract in history, so now they have to build a roster without draft picks and with, effectively, the largest QB contract in history by a wide margin.

Edit: I guess to be technical there is also 9m in bonus on this year so it would technically be 4 years 220m or 55m per year on average which is still, again, by far the largest QB contract in history plus 9m cap hit for a year he wont play.

Right, but that was the point of the contract. They wanted to make sure they weren't screwing Watson out of significant money if he missed a portion or all of this year.
The multi-year hedge is smart, because realistically, in order for the NFL to suspend him beyond year 1, there would have to be "new" info that comes out that forces their hand.
My point was that everybody is talking about the financial risk to the Browns. It's pretty low. They've already factored in the year 1 risk.

Couple other things I'd point out:
1. The Browns are going to roll-over a bunch of cap space into 2023 from this year. Likely at least $15-20M
2. The cap is expected to rise significantly next year, and for several years after that. New TV contracts kick in for 2023 season.
3. There's a zero percent chance Watson's cap hit for 2023 (assuming he plays) remains at $55M. They'll convert chunks of that to a bonus and kick the can down the road. If things work out and he plays and plays well, like he would be expected to do if he weren't facing civil charges, he could easily be a Brown for the next 10-15 years. This is just one contract. They'll sign him to likely multiple extensions.
By the time his cap his is actually like $50-60M, the NFL salary cap will be probably $250M or more. Suddenly, it's not such a big number.
4. I doubt they're that concerned about draft picks. For starters, they have a pretty talented roster today. Like if Watson played this year, they're a legit SB contender in my eyes. You won't find many rosters as solid as theirs.
Not to mention you're overstating the draft picks lost. Yes, they lost their next two first rounders.
In 2023, they currently still have a second and third rounder, as well as six day 3 picks, including two in rounds 4 and 5. So basically the only thing they don't have is a first rounder.
In 2024, they have a second and third rounder, and four day 3 picks.
So right now, they still have 14 draft picks in the next two years, including four on day 2. That's not exactly a bare cupboard.

 

[Davesta]

Whoa. I remember his name being brought up a few times during draft szn

 

[RavensMania]

1. If he isn't playing in 2022, it won't cost the Browns much, because his cap hit isn't that big and they already structured it so he'd lose as small amount as possible.
2. I really don't understand why people are concerned about the Browns' position. It's actually pretty risk-free if you think about it.
If he gets suspended, he doesn't get paid. That's true if it's for one year, two years, 10 years. It doesn't matter. If the NFL decides to black-ball him and indefinitely suspend him, then the Browns don't pay. They get most of their cap space back, and they move on to a different QB. And if his suspension eventually ends, they'll control is rights. By that time, the public will have stopped caring (realistically they'll stop caring by about Labor Day this year, but that's besides the point).
People act like the Browns are going to have to pay him $240M to never play. Won't happen. It'll happen if he gets injured, but not if he gets suspended.
It's precisely the reason why the NFL has basically already said they're not likely to go the "Commissioner exempt" list again, or if they do, it won't be beyond 2022. Because that list gets Watson paid, and they already know they look bad paying the guy to not play.

The Browns "risk" is capped at two things... the draft picks they gave up to get him, which they won't get back, and the $45M signing bonus they gave him. Both are substantial, but not the kind of things that have to kill a franchise by any stretch of the imagination.
And the signing bonus would at least have a chance of being clawed back, depending on when it's paid out and how well they can arbitrate.

I'll give the Browns credit for one thing... the structure of his deal is actually quite good for them. First off, on a $230M contract, a $45M signing bonus is actually quite small. Second, they just hit him with large, flat base salaries for the following four years. So any suspension will cut directly into that, so he's not shielded from comp beyond year 1.
Plus, it allows them to restructure his deals continuously as long as they want, since the dead money on the bonuses is actually quite small.

you can't really call it risk free because of the draft capital they gave up and that draft capital isn't a small thing. Those draft picks were more than just a few picks. Now the 45m signing bonus was small for the size of the deal, but 9m per year over 5 years hurts for any year he doesn't play.

 

[RavensMania]

Right, but that was the point of the contract. They wanted to make sure they weren't screwing Watson out of significant money if he missed a portion or all of this year.
The multi-year hedge is smart, because realistically, in order for the NFL to suspend him beyond year 1, there would have to be "new" info that comes out that forces their hand.
My point was that everybody is talking about the financial risk to the Browns. It's pretty low. They've already factored in the year 1 risk.

Couple other things I'd point out:
1. The Browns are going to roll-over a bunch of cap space into 2023 from this year. Likely at least $15-20M
2. The cap is expected to rise significantly next year, and for several years after that. New TV contracts kick in for 2023 season.
3. There's a zero percent chance Watson's cap hit for 2023 (assuming he plays) remains at $55M. They'll convert chunks of that to a bonus and kick the can down the road. If things work out and he plays and plays well, like he would be expected to do if he weren't facing civil charges, he could easily be a Brown for the next 10-15 years. This is just one contract. They'll sign him to likely multiple extensions.
By the time his cap his is actually like $50-60M, the NFL salary cap will be probably $250M or more. Suddenly, it's not such a big number.
4. I doubt they're that concerned about draft picks. For starters, they have a pretty talented roster today. Like if Watson played this year, they're a legit SB contender in my eyes. You won't find many rosters as solid as theirs.
Not to mention you're overstating the draft picks lost. Yes, they lost their next two first rounders.
In 2023, they currently still have a second and third rounder, as well as six day 3 picks, including two in rounds 4 and 5. So basically the only thing they don't have is a first rounder.
In 2024, they have a second and third rounder, and four day 3 picks.
So right now, they still have 14 draft picks in the next two years, including four on day 2. That's not exactly a bare cupboard.

now if Watson is suspended from the 24th law suit the Browns can void most of his guarantees and get back the majority of his signing bonus. They still don't get back the draft capital.

 

[rossihunter2]

now if Watson is suspended from the 24th law suit the Browns can void most of his guarantees and get back the majority of his signing bonus. They still don't get back the draft capital.

i doubt they'll be able to void it - any language that allowed them to do that would likely have meant watson is not a brown and is playing for one of the other two teams that were offering him similar (non-fully-guaranteed) deals who he clearly liked more

 

[rmcjacket23]

now if Watson is suspended from the 24th law suit the Browns can void most of his guarantees and get back the majority of his signing bonus. They still don't get back the draft capital.

Right but a) the draft capital is a sunk cost to get a QB who's much better than the one they have and b) it's not something that has to prevent them from competing.
They were a playoff team with Baker at QB. If they get even a partial upgrade on him, there's no reason they can't be. They'll just never be as good as they could be with Watson playing.

 

[RavensMania]

i doubt they'll be able to void it - any language that allowed them to do that would likely have meant watson is not a brown and is playing for one of the other two teams that were offering him similar (non-fully-guaranteed) deals who he clearly liked more

Could the 24th lawsuit against Deshaun Watson eventually allow Browns to void his warranties? -

Perhaps the most important development on Monday in the case of Deshaun Watson was the lack of one at all. Specifically, the Watson team’s lack of response to lawsuit #24 could create serious consequences for Watson with the league and/or team. Attorney Rusty Hardin issued a statement on Monday...

amolivia.com

 

[rmcjacket23]

i doubt they'll be able to void it - any language that allowed them to do that would likely have meant watson is not a brown and is playing for one of the other two teams that were offering him similar (non-fully-guaranteed) deals who he clearly liked more

I would imagine it would require a) an indefinite suspension from the league and b) a vastly long arbitration hearing that would last years.

But yes, I generally agree. It's largely a sunk cost now.

 

[RavensMania]

Right but a) the draft capital is a sunk cost to get a QB who's much better than the one they have and b) it's not something that has to prevent them from competing.
They were a playoff team with Baker at QB. If they get even a partial upgrade on him, there's no reason they can't be. They'll just never be as good as they could be with Watson playing.

I agree that he is better, but only when he is on the field. You are probably right that he will 'ONLY' have a 1 yr suspension, but that is a year without Watson. Sunk cost or not, it's a lot of draft capital with a big risk of suspension ahead.

 

[rmcjacket23]

I agree that he is better, but only when he is on the field. You are probably right that he will 'ONLY' have a 1 yr suspension, but that is a year without Watson. Sunk cost or not, it's a lot of draft capital with a big risk of suspension ahead.

Well, look at it this way...
They gave up that draft capital and about $45M for the rights to Watson, whenever he's able to get back on the field. If he never does, that's a lot, but it's not franchise killing. Like I said... 14 picks in the next two years, a roster full of talented players, and IF Watson gets suspended for longer, they'll still have plenty of cap space to get another QB.
Not to mention that these first round picks aren't like the old top 5-10 picks we're used to seeing Cleveland get. Even with Baker leading this team, it's a 7-8 win team minimum, and likely more than that.

 

[RavensMania]

Well, look at it this way...
They gave up that draft capital and about $45M for the rights to Watson, whenever he's able to get back on the field. If he never does, that's a lot, but it's not franchise killing. Like I said... 14 picks in the next two years, a roster full of talented players, and IF Watson gets suspended for longer, they'll still have plenty of cap space to get another QB.
Not to mention that these first round picks aren't like the old top 5-10 picks we're used to seeing Cleveland get. Even with Baker leading this team, it's a 7-8 win team minimum, and likely more than that.

we are going to have to agree to disagree on this one. You have some valid points but you just don't go throw high picks away even if they are the last pick in the 1st round. You make it seem like they aren't valuable picks unless they are top 5 picks and a 7 to 8 win team is top half of the round easy. Those picks could be some very good players. Just this this year they traded #13 and next yrs first with Watson suspended the year is still going to be a very good pick. Besides the Browns were only able to structure 45m signing bonus because they guaranteed the entire contract and protected Watson from suspension. Don't make the Browns out to be like they were wizards in the structure of this deal, because they weren't. They were in fact desperate to land him.