The Random Thought Thread

[Ellicottraven]

It's not like the Rams invented this. Ozzie was notorious years ago for doing similar, his failing was consecutive bad choices of players that got extended (some of the choice was on Ozzie but some of it was unforeseen). Steelers have done it a lot, too.
Rams have a great team all around but I think they are starteing to push their luck with this latest lot of extensions.

I remember Ozzie doing it by bringing in Grbac to replace Dilfer in 2001. They literally carried the same team if memory serves me right.

 

[Deebo813]

It's not like the Rams invented this. Ozzie was notorious years ago for doing similar, his failing was consecutive bad choices of players that got extended (some of the choice was on Ozzie but some of it was unforeseen). Steelers have done it a lot, too.
Rams have a great team all around but I think they are starteing to push their luck with this latest lot of extensions.

I dnt ever remember ozzie nor anyteam doing what rams are doing.. they really dgaf about draft picks… ravens cherish them. as far as extensions goes, they seem to be very smart with on who they extend.. all of us would extend the same exact players theyre doing and wouldnt think twice..

ozzie giving bwill and webb those what was big contracts at the time is the reason why whatever he was trying to do would have never worked even if he tried imo… we have gotten much smarter with extensions since then though.

 

[Deebo813]

I remember Ozzie doing it by bringing in Grbac to replace Dilfer in 2001. They literally carried the same team if memory serves me right.

He was a free agent though right

 

[Deebo813]

I remember Ozzie doing it by bringing in Grbac to replace Dilfer in 2001. They literally carried the same team if memory serves me right.

rams went after guys like stafford, we went after guys like elvis..

 

[allblackraven]

I dnt ever remember ozzie nor anyteam doing what rams are doing.. they really dgaf about draft picks… ravens cherish them. as far as extensions goes, they seem to be very smart with on who they extend.. all of us would extend the same exact players theyre doing and wouldnt think twice..

ozzie giving bwill and webb those what was big contracts at the time is the reason why whatever he was trying to do would have never worked even if he tried imo… we have gotten much smarter with extensions since then though.

Pitta, Ray Rice, Ngata...
Joe was more than questionable, too. Add to that misses on few drafts after the SB and the picture is not pretty.

 

[rossihunter2]

I dnt ever remember ozzie nor anyteam doing what rams are doing.. they really dgaf about draft picks… ravens cherish them. as far as extensions goes, they seem to be very smart with on who they extend.. all of us would extend the same exact players theyre doing and wouldnt think twice..

ozzie giving bwill and webb those what was big contracts at the time is the reason why whatever he was trying to do would have never worked even if he tried imo… we have gotten much smarter with extensions since then though.

they very much do care about draft picks - that's why this strategy has worked for them
what they've done is decided that star veterans who are sure things are a better value use of high draft picks than cheap question marks who only have a low chance to be as good as the star they could trade for
but the only way they can sustain their success is by filling out the rest of the team with cheap young talent which is why they've maximised the number of draft picks they have on day 3 and in R3

 

[rossihunter2]

I mean, the reason people care and focus on it in general because it's another example of someone rich and famous getting away with stuff that'd destroy other people's lives.

While I'm not gonna pretend that the Ravens are nothing but boyscouts, I probably would stop following the team if we had brought in Watson.

Also just in general I think people enjoy pointing out hypocrisy. The Browns shit on Baker, openly calling him immature and saying they want an adult after he got that sorry franchise to the playoffs, and then replace him with a sexual predator. Even if you don't give a shit about Watson it'll be fun seeing this potentially blow up in their face as the Browns return to being the worst in the division.

i love the ravens, but i would have instantly peaced out

 

[JoeyFlex5]

It's not like the Rams invented this. Ozzie was notorious years ago for doing similar, his failing was consecutive bad choices of players that got extended (some of the choice was on Ozzie but some of it was unforeseen). Steelers have done it a lot, too.
Rams have a great team all around but I think they are starteing to push their luck with this latest lot of extensions.

The Steelers notoriously kept an old, slow, and expensive band of vets together and then they spent years drafting poorly at every position but WR, and they were constantly criticized for it and they struggled for a few years under this.

This only works when you are able to draft well enough to round out your roster, what the rams are doing doesn’t work if they aren’t finding a cam Akers and van Jefferson and cooper kupp on day 2 every year

 

[rmcjacket23]

I mean, the reason people care and focus on it in general because it's another example of someone rich and famous getting away with stuff that'd destroy other people's lives.

While I'm not gonna pretend that the Ravens are nothing but boyscouts, I probably would stop following the team if we had brought in Watson.

Also just in general I think people enjoy pointing out hypocrisy. The Browns shit on Baker, openly calling him immature and saying they want an adult after he got that sorry franchise to the playoffs, and then replace him with a sexual predator. Even if you don't give a shit about Watson it'll be fun seeing this potentially blow up in their face as the Browns return to being the worst in the division.

1. I mean are you sure it destroy other people's lives? You do realize the general public soliciting massage therapists for sex is not exactly uncommon, right? It happens a TON more than you think.
If they had evidence against that person, sure, they'd be convicted and probably go to jail. They'd also be locked up for a rather short period of time most likely, and I doubt they'd get to 66 cases or whatever it is before they do.
They'd also do all of those under almost total anonymity, because nobody knows who they are and nobody cares.

It's a slipper slope with this whole "rich people get preferential treatment" thing. Like yeah it happens, but rich people have also lost jobs, careers, etc. for very public transgressions, whereas if it happened to somebody in the public, nobody would know or care.

I use this as a reference all the time... what happens when you get a DUI vs Deshaun Watson getting a DUI? When you get a DUI, assuming it's a first time offense and you have no priors, you won't do jail time, you'll pay a bunch of fines, go into treatment, community service, etc. In most cases, that's the max, because your employer probably won't even know.
What happens what Watson gets a DUI? 100 million people know about it, his employer suspends him, which costs him at least six figures, most likely seven figures, and he's publicly labeled as an alcoholic for the rest of his life.
Which would you rather have?

It's case-by-case in these situations. Sometimes its better to be rich. Sometimes its better to be totally anonymous.

2. It would take a lot more than Watson joining this team for me to stop watching the Ravens, mostly because they've employed (and happily done so) people that have a lot worse on their resume's (in my eyes) than this guy.
There's a statue of a guy outside the stadium who, at the very least, was heavily involved in a murder.

3. In reference to Baker, they want an adult on the football field and on the locker room. Baker's immaturity and lack of leadership isn't just an off-field thing. It's an on-field thing.
And naturally, football teams care more about your on-field abilities and leadership than off.
It's not like this idea of certain football players being great leaders, mentors, players on the field, and being total psychopaths, douchebags, and worse off the field, is a new thing.
They're still just people at the end of the day. They're a fairly good representation of the whole population. There's alcoholics, drug addicts, criminals, sex offenders, etc. on NFL teams, just like there is in the population.
Never understood why the public thinks just because they're rich and on the TV that it would change the character of the person.

 

[Michael M.]

they very much do care about draft picks - that's why this strategy has worked for them
what they've done is decided that star veterans who are sure things are a better value use of high draft picks than cheap question marks who only have a low chance to be as good as the star they could trade for
but the only way they can sustain their success is by filling out the rest of the team with cheap young talent which is why they've maximised the number of draft picks they have on day 3 and in R3

I think the Rams approach is an interesting one. Build an all-star team as best you can. Vets will wany to play there who want a ring. And even if the cap catches up to them, they may feel if they can win a SB every 8-10 yrs its still worth it.

 

[Adreme]

Right, but that was the point of the contract. They wanted to make sure they weren't screwing Watson out of significant money if he missed a portion or all of this year.
The multi-year hedge is smart, because realistically, in order for the NFL to suspend him beyond year 1, there would have to be "new" info that comes out that forces their hand.
My point was that everybody is talking about the financial risk to the Browns. It's pretty low. They've already factored in the year 1 risk.

Couple other things I'd point out:
1. The Browns are going to roll-over a bunch of cap space into 2023 from this year. Likely at least $15-20M
2. The cap is expected to rise significantly next year, and for several years after that. New TV contracts kick in for 2023 season.
3. There's a zero percent chance Watson's cap hit for 2023 (assuming he plays) remains at $55M. They'll convert chunks of that to a bonus and kick the can down the road. If things work out and he plays and plays well, like he would be expected to do if he weren't facing civil charges, he could easily be a Brown for the next 10-15 years. This is just one contract. They'll sign him to likely multiple extensions.
By the time his cap his is actually like $50-60M, the NFL salary cap will be probably $250M or more. Suddenly, it's not such a big number.
4. I doubt they're that concerned about draft picks. For starters, they have a pretty talented roster today. Like if Watson played this year, they're a legit SB contender in my eyes. You won't find many rosters as solid as theirs.
Not to mention you're overstating the draft picks lost. Yes, they lost their next two first rounders.
In 2023, they currently still have a second and third rounder, as well as six day 3 picks, including two in rounds 4 and 5. So basically the only thing they don't have is a first rounder.
In 2024, they have a second and third rounder, and four day 3 picks.
So right now, they still have 14 draft picks in the next two years, including four on day 2. That's not exactly a bare cupboard.

It is by far the largest QB contract in the NFL. Rodgers makes 50m, Mahomes 45m (eventually), then Allen 43m, and then Carr/Stafford/Dak at 40m and so there is a massive jump there. There is a reason no one is even close to 55m and Rodgers 50m is a massive outlier. There are things to be done to make it less painful, but it is still painful otherwise teams would just being throwing 60m contracts and these negotiations with QBs would be trivial. The cap matters less than people would claim but it does matter and paying 15m AAV over market value for a player certainly matters.

They are a talented roster, but now they cannot really be active in free agency, they will not have draft picks, and that means whatever they have now has to be what they contend with and I struggle to see how that is enough. They have some solid players now but are not a SB contender roster and if they are not that now their roster is not going to become that. So they ended up in a terrible situation from a football perspective and a PR perspective and ended up making the most Browns move possible in that they destroyed their future on the promise of fools gold. It is a sad day when you get outwitted by the Texans front office.

 

[BoredMarine13]

Naw dnt care about me cause idc even care about myself.. i dropped out in 9th grade

You’ve made it this far so somethings working

 

[rmcjacket23]

It is by far the largest QB contract in the NFL. Rodgers makes 50m, Mahomes 45m (eventually), then Allen 43m, and then Carr/Stafford/Dak at 40m and so there is a massive jump there. There is a reason no one is even close to 55m and Rodgers 50m is a massive outlier. There are things to be done to make it less painful, but it is still painful otherwise teams would just being throwing 60m contracts and these negotiations with QBs would be trivial. The cap matters less than people would claim but it does matter and paying 15m AAV over market value for a player certainly matters.

They are a talented roster, but now they cannot really be active in free agency, they will not have draft picks, and that means whatever they have now has to be what they contend with and I struggle to see how that is enough. They have some solid players now but are not a SB contender roster and if they are not that now their roster is not going to become that. So they ended up in a terrible situation from a football perspective and a PR perspective and ended up making the most Browns move possible in that they destroyed their future on the promise of fools gold. It is a sad day when you get outwitted by the Texans front office.

OK but just to be clear:
1. Watson is making $46M in AAV per year. So he's #2 highest paid in AAV. Not seeing how he's $15M over market value.
2. You already know that AAV doesn't really matter, because if it's not guaranteed, it's basically written in pencil. You can erase it at any time. The Ravens may easily sign Lamar to a $60M AAV deal, but that doesn't mean he'll get all of it or even half of it. Just depends on what the guarantees are.
3. You're way, way, way off on the second paragraph.
Why can't they be active in FA? Do you really think he's going to have a $55M cap hit next year? Of course not. They'll take a bunch of his salary, convert to a bonus, spread it out. Rinse, repeat. I'll bet right now that his cap hit in 2023 is under $40M.
Also not sure why people don't think they have draft picks. They have plenty of draft picks. 14 picks in the next two years. The only thing they don't have is first rounders. That's it. They have second rounders, they have third rounders, and they have tons of day 3 picks.
If their FO is worth a damn in terms of talent evaluation and development, no reason they can't get several starters and quality depth players from that group. Much in the same way we expect same from Rams, Ravens, or any other team.

We clearly disagree on SB contending roster. I don't see what that roster is any worse than it was two years ago when they were in the divisional round. You probably would have a hard time listing for me weak areas of their team. They're strong on the Oline, running game is possibly the best in the league, they have a quality TE, they have a very strong secondary and obviously pass rush isn't a concern.
Like you'd actually have a pretty hard time comping the Ravens as a better roster, considering we actually share some of the same weaknesses (namely at WR). I like our secondary better, but it's not dramatically better, and I like their pass rush a hell of a lot more.

If Deshaun Watson were to play all 17 games this year, they're far, far, far away the favorites in the AFC North. I don't think its particularly close either. Most people are ignoring the Browns because they know Watson is getting suspended and many assume for a long enough time that it's going to derail their season.

Think you're wildly overestimating the "bad football decision" here. I don't think anybody expects Watson to be suspended for longer than 2022. By 2023, they're a routine contender in the AFC for the foreseeable future. Houston was in that class already with Watson, and Houston's roster was never anywhere close to as good as Cleveland's is.

 

[RavensMania]

I mean, the reason people care and focus on it in general because it's another example of someone rich and famous getting away with stuff that'd destroy other people's lives.

While I'm not gonna pretend that the Ravens are nothing but boyscouts, I probably would stop following the team if we had brought in Watson.

Also just in general I think people enjoy pointing out hypocrisy. The Browns shit on Baker, openly calling him immature and saying they want an adult after he got that sorry franchise to the playoffs, and then replace him with a sexual predator. Even if you don't give a shit about Watson it'll be fun seeing this potentially blow up in their face as the Browns return to being the worst in the division.

very well said

 

[RavensMania]

OK but just to be clear:
1. Watson is making $46M in AAV per year. So he's #2 highest paid in AAV. Not seeing how he's $15M over market value.
2. You already know that AAV doesn't really matter, because if it's not guaranteed, it's basically written in pencil. You can erase it at any time. The Ravens may easily sign Lamar to a $60M AAV deal, but that doesn't mean he'll get all of it or even half of it. Just depends on what the guarantees are.
3. You're way, way, way off on the second paragraph.
Why can't they be active in FA? Do you really think he's going to have a $55M cap hit next year? Of course not. They'll take a bunch of his salary, convert to a bonus, spread it out. Rinse, repeat. I'll bet right now that his cap hit in 2023 is under $40M.
Also not sure why people don't think they have draft picks. They have plenty of draft picks. 14 picks in the next two years. The only thing they don't have is first rounders. That's it. They have second rounders, they have third rounders, and they have tons of day 3 picks.
If their FO is worth a damn in terms of talent evaluation and development, no reason they can't get several starters and quality depth players from that group. Much in the same way we expect same from Rams, Ravens, or any other team.

We clearly disagree on SB contending roster. I don't see what that roster is any worse than it was two years ago when they were in the divisional round. You probably would have a hard time listing for me weak areas of their team. They're strong on the Oline, running game is possibly the best in the league, they have a quality TE, they have a very strong secondary and obviously pass rush isn't a concern.
Like you'd actually have a pretty hard time comping the Ravens as a better roster, considering we actually share some of the same weaknesses (namely at WR). I like our secondary better, but it's not dramatically better, and I like their pass rush a hell of a lot more.

If Deshaun Watson were to play all 17 games this year, they're far, far, far away the favorites in the AFC North. I don't think its particularly close either. Most people are ignoring the Browns because they know Watson is getting suspended and many assume for a long enough time that it's going to derail their season.

Think you're wildly overestimating the "bad football decision" here. I don't think anybody expects Watson to be suspended for longer than 2022. By 2023, they're a routine contender in the AFC for the foreseeable future. Houston was in that class already with Watson, and Houston's roster was never anywhere close to as good as Cleveland's is.

Browns have had the most talent on their team for a few years now, except at QB and Watson doesn't put them over the top either. Not in my opinion and I liked Watson in Houston, just not as much as a lot of people. He's definitely better than Baker, but he won't play this year so your 'if he plays all games' isn't happening.

Just because a team has the 'most talent' on the roster doesn't mean they are going to win the division. Coaching is a big thing in the NFL, much more than any other sport. Would they be favored, yes. Would they win. N...O!

 

[JoeyFlex5]

I remember Ozzie doing it by bringing in Grbac to replace Dilfer in 2001. They literally carried the same team if memory serves me right.

If I’m not mistaken stokley left after the SB as well, and he was a major piece of that offense

 

[rmcjacket23]

Browns have had the most talent on their team for a few years now, except at QB and Watson doesn't put them over the top either. Not in my opinion and I liked Watson in Houston, just not as much as a lot of people. He's definitely better than Baker, but he won't play this year so your 'if he plays all games' isn't happening.

Just because a team has the 'most talent' on the roster doesn't mean they are going to win the division. Coaching is a big thing in the NFL, much more than any other sport. Would they be favored, yes. Would they win. N...O!

Of course it doesn't. The problem is... the people saying the Browns won't be contenders with Watson aren't basing that on really anything other than "they're the Browns", which doesn't mean anything, and then conjuring up random intangible things that could happen that will derail them.

The latter part is unpredictable. Maybe they're the healthiest roster in the league one year and Mahomes and Josh Allen tear their ACL. Maybe they get an injury roster like the 2021 Ravens and fall off a cliff, and then ignorant people will be like "yeah, I told you so".

You evaluate rosters based on talent because that's the only thing the team can control. Coaching's a factor, but if Stefanski can get Baker Mayfield to a win a playoff game, I'm quite confident he can do very many good things with Watson, who would be exponentially better running bootlegs and play action than Baker. Don't recall anybody fighting for Zac Taylor, elite HC, 12 months ago, and yet his team made a SB last year. And I still don't think he's an elite coach either.

If people want to play the "Browns will always suck because they're the Browns" card or "they won't be a contender because random X, Y, Z) thing will happen, that's fine. It's not exactly an intelligent take by any stretch of the imagination, but that's not required to be a fan either. Clearly.

You said it yourself... high end roster without the QB. That's a death sentence in the NFL, because you can't win with that. Browns haven't had a QB as good as Watson on their roster, in, maybe ever. Most people haven't been alive to see a player of that caliber play for the Browns.

 

[RavensMania]

Of course it doesn't. The problem is... the people saying the Browns won't be contenders with Watson aren't basing that on really anything other than "they're the Browns", which doesn't mean anything, and then conjuring up random intangible things that could happen that will derail them.

The latter part is unpredictable. Maybe they're the healthiest roster in the league one year and Mahomes and Josh Allen tear their ACL. Maybe they get an injury roster like the 2021 Ravens and fall off a cliff, and then ignorant people will be like "yeah, I told you so".

You evaluate rosters based on talent because that's the only thing the team can control. Coaching's a factor, but if Stefanski can get Baker Mayfield to a win a playoff game, I'm quite confident he can do very many good things with Watson, who would be exponentially better running bootlegs and play action than Baker. Don't recall anybody fighting for Zac Taylor, elite HC, 12 months ago, and yet his team made a SB last year. And I still don't think he's an elite coach either.

If people want to play the "Browns will always suck because they're the Browns" card or "they won't be a contender because random X, Y, Z) thing will happen, that's fine. It's not exactly an intelligent take by any stretch of the imagination, but that's not required to be a fan either. Clearly.

You said it yourself... high end roster without the QB. That's a death sentence in the NFL, because you can't win with that. Browns haven't had a QB as good as Watson on their roster, in, maybe ever. Most people haven't been alive to see a player of that caliber play for the Browns.

Browns could very well be contenders with a healthy Watson. They have a very good roster, I just don't think they end up winning it all. Of course I didn't see the Bengals in the playoffs last year either, so it's unpredictable.

Also agree that Zac Taylor isn't an elite head coach, but he has good pedigree. The Bengals had the healthiest roster in the league last year and a 4th place finish. I don't want to take anything away from them because they were deserving of their super bowl run, but I don't think they make it to the SB again this year. I do see them as contenders in the AFCN and once you make the playoffs, anything can happen.

 

[rmcjacket23]

Browns could very well be contenders with a healthy Watson. They have a very good roster, I just don't think they end up winning it all. Of course I didn't see the Bengals in the playoffs last year either, so it's unpredictable.

Also agree that Zac Taylor isn't an elite head coach, but he has good pedigree. The Bengals had the healthiest roster in the league last year and a 4th place finish. I don't want to take anything away from them because they were deserving of their super bowl run, but I don't think they make it to the SB again this year. I do see them as contenders in the AFCN and once you make the playoffs, anything can happen.

Right, but that's the point. If playing 17 games, I'd like the 2022 Browns more than I liked the 2021 Bengals... a SB team. I think the Browns would be better than them.
Does that mean they'll win the SB? I don't know. To say they're not contenders seems foolish to me. I'd put them above the Ravens in terms of contenders with a 17 game Watson starter. Won't happen this year, but the Ravens would need to make some personnel upgrades in order to change my mind for 2023.

The biggest deterrent to the Browns winning it all in 2023 or beyond isn't the Browns at this point. It's the same as everybody else in the AFC... absolutely loaded QB talent pretty much everywhere, and high end players at every position across all team. Chargers look like a loaded team. The Raiders were a playoff team last year and look to be significantly improved. The Broncos have no notable holes I see, other than maybe Oline.
I just mentioned three teams that look really, really good to me, and I didn't mention the Chiefs, Bills or Bengals, who were the three best teams in the AFC last year, as well as the Ravens, who were decimated by injury.

I put the Browns on a pedestal because their roster is every bit as good in my eyes as basically every team I listed.

 

[RavensMania]

Right, but that's the point. If playing 17 games, I'd like the 2022 Browns more than I liked the 2021 Bengals... a SB team. I think the Browns would be better than them.
Does that mean they'll win the SB? I don't know. To say they're not contenders seems foolish to me. I'd put them above the Ravens in terms of contenders with a 17 game Watson starter. Won't happen this year, but the Ravens would need to make some personnel upgrades in order to change my mind for 2023.

The biggest deterrent to the Browns winning it all in 2023 or beyond isn't the Browns at this point. It's the same as everybody else in the AFC... absolutely loaded QB talent pretty much everywhere, and high end players at every position across all team. Chargers look like a loaded team. The Raiders were a playoff team last year and look to be significantly improved. The Broncos have no notable holes I see, other than maybe Oline.
I just mentioned three teams that look really, really good to me, and I didn't mention the Chiefs, Bills or Bengals, who were the three best teams in the AFC last year, as well as the Ravens, who were decimated by injury.

I put the Browns on a pedestal because their roster is every bit as good in my eyes as basically every team I listed.

Either way it is going to be a very interesting year in the AFC, like no other year in recent memory. The talent is just insane.