I’m now seeing conflicting numbers for his PRWR. I see 11.2 from pff, and 14 from a ravens centric article that is citing 14 from pff. One thing I have not seen is 8%, anywhere from any source.
There’s no one change that led to Madubuike’s breakout season, those close to him say. The process to get here just took longer than expected.
www.thebaltimorebanner.com
- the ravens centric article in question that cites 14% from pff
And I’ve already discussed a shit ton of the nuance lol, we are all the ones trying to discuss nuance, you are the one using strictly raw data.
I’m reading back over my posts here and I may be coming off as shitty and aggressive, just wanna say that I’m not trying to do that lol all respect
Yeah, seems like raw data in advanced analytics where every source reports a different percentage for the same stat should only play a small part in such a big decision
For ESPN, they very clearly say a pass rush win is a player getting within a certain vicinity (they define the exact distance) of the quarterback within 2.5 seconds of the snap. I think that it is perfectly reasonable to use that as a stat.
I do not particularly like ones like PFF where it essentially boils down to, "Beat your man." Does that mean you did it in a certain time frame? Judging by their paragraph minimally explaining pass rush win rate, I don't believe so. It also doesn't say the player has to even affect the outcome of the play with a pressure. I'm wary of ones like that.
PFF is certainly less strict than ESPN in this instance. For example, the ESPN pass rush win rate had Dexter Lawrence at roughly 18% through week five. PFF had him at 21.2%.
As for the 8% pass rush win rate, that's more so me eyeballing the graph from ESPN, but it's somewhere in that 8%-9% range.
I'm just trying to get at what you think nuance is and why advanced stats aren't nuance. I think that adds a lot to the context and the discussion, personally. Like, it's definitely something to monitor that Madubuike's double team rate declined as the season progressed. It's something to monitor that his pass rush win rate, according to ESPN, didn't steadily increase dramatically in this time frame. It's worth monitoring that an absurd amount of pressures have been converted to sacks and unless he continues playing like an outlier, we will see a very decent regression. I think it's worth noting that Madubuike has collected 9.5 sacks when the Ravens lead by 8 or more points and 6.0 have come when leading by 15 points. In total, 11 of his sacks have come when leading.
I think it is entirely fair to note that the Ravens have trailed by the third least (I think it's the third least, but definitely bottom five) in NFL history over the course of the regular season (well, at least until week 18.) It shouldn't be a total shocker that Madubuike has collected 9.5 sacks in the second half compared to only 3.5 in the first half. Unsurprisingly, his highest sack total by quarter is 5.5 in the fourth. I don't think the Ravens have actually gone into a half trailing. They've been tied or ahead every time, so this makes total sense. Also definitely worth noting that Madubuike only has 0.5 sacks when the game is within 7 in the fourth quarter. I don't think these situations happened a ton, so smaller sample size, but still something to keep an eye on.
Would it shock you to know the Ravens faced the second most pass attempts in the NFL? Would it surprise you to know that the Ravens faced 513 pass attempts when leading with only 121 coming when trailing? Unsurprisingly, the Ravens garnered 49 sacks when ahead to 11 when even or trailing.
Would it shock you to know that 47 sacks have come when opponents are facing 7+ yards for a first down?
These are all things to keep an eye on and ask questions about. How much of it comes down to MacDonald's scheme? Again, every single member of the defensive line and every front seven starter has a sack. Clowney and Van Noy, who wasn't even picked up until week four, have had career years. How much of it is due to the Ravens being ahead by massive margins and generally playing teams that need to pass to catch up? There are teams that faced fewer pass attempts than the Ravens *when leading.* But even then, the Ravens have blown teams out of the water in many games or held significant leads in games that otherwise appear close based on the final score (games like Arizona where the final score doesn't indicate how much the Ravens were actually in control.) This is a lot of opportunities to pin your ears back as a pass rusher and just go to town. Next year, the team as a whole will be a whole lot worse if I had to guess. I think we'll see significant change at WR, RB, OL, LB, OLB, and CB. If the team isn't able to generate these insane leads, and I don't think they will next year, will he be able to pass rush as well from neutral states?
Again, I think a lot of factors, many outside of Madubuike's control, went into making this a very special year for him and I don't think it's sustainable or that he's some pass rushing wizard. I think overall that he'll get paid well above what he should and I don't think it'll be in Baltimore given the limited cap space and the needs elsewhere.
Also, I don't think anyone is being aggressive in this. I think at the end of the day it's all football discussion and we all understand that. I know I'm taking an unpopular approach on this one so I'm going to get push back. I don't take it personally.
And again, I would love to be wrong if he re-signs with the Ravens, but I'm very wary of a Vic Beasley situation. Only difference being the Ravens don't have the luxury of another season to see how things play out.