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The Lamar, The Defence and The Special Teams

29BmoreBird22

Staff Member
Moderator
Writer
his pass rush win rate has gone up throughout the season and I'm not sure I'd call it a poor win rate.

From week 9-18 his win rate is 6th in the league at 17.7. During that same time frame his PRP is 2nd. in the league at 11.2.
According to? Can I see the source?
 

29BmoreBird22

Staff Member
Moderator
Writer
Let's see!

2020
19 tackles (7.3%)
1 sack (0.38%)
260 snaps

2021
36 tackles (7.4%)
2 sacks (0.41%)
484 snaps

It would seem that from year 1 to 2 his production on those 2 stats (the ones that I have free access to) he was just linear with snap count.

2022
42 tackles (6.4%)
5.5 sacks (0.84%)
655 snaps

From year 2 to year 3 he has a 100% increase in the sack rate when the snap rate only increased by 35%

2023
56 tackles (7.4%)
13 sacks (1.7%)
757 snaps

From year 3 to 4 he had a 136% increase in sacks with only a 15% increase in snaps.

So that means he really got as you said, similar playing time in 2022 that he did in 2023. Tbh I thought he played less in 2022 than he did. But both of those years, he played a shit ton of snaps. Both in MM defense. Kept a consistent tackle rate over his whole career but he's found a way to actually bring the QB done dramatically more efficiently every year. Far more over the expected increase from snaps.

My point was if it was system, why didn't Campbell feast considering he was a very good player with a ton of snaps?
I think that, generally speaking, the defensive talent overall was weaker last year and Campbell, as much as I love the man, was well beyond his prime.
 

UPennChem

Hall of Famer
I think that, generally speaking, the defensive talent overall was weaker last year and Campbell, as much as I love the man, was well beyond his prime.
These are definitely fair. I think the secondary was definitely worse last year. Hamilton wasn't ascended like he was at the end of last year kt this year. Before Roquan, the ILB play was also not as good. Campbell was also definitely not in his prime but was still a very good player.

All that being completely true, it's still probably not what accounts for 136% sack rate increase from an already respectable 5.5.

He definitely took a leap. Or it's just luck. Can't rule that out. Or both. But even if 4 or 5 of the 13 sacks are luck then he's an 8 or 9 sack guy.

Your point is what you pay an 8 sack guy and a 13 sack guy are very different. And I agree with that.
 

JoeyFlex5

Hall of Famer
I'd hardly call a poor pass rush win rate and low double team rate cherry picked. It's season long.

It's pretty difficult to argue against his pressures to sacks being unsustainable. There will be a natural regression.

Clowney wasn't picked up until right before the season and Van Noy until week four. Both are having career years.

Every starting member of the front seven has a sack and every defensive lineman has a sack.

I think MacDonald is putting him in a better position than he could reasonably ask for and he, along with every front seven player, are benefitting heavily from how MacDonald schemes pressure.
when an interior defender has 64 pressures and 14 sacks in his first season as a full time starter, I’m sorry but I’m calling those deep analytics obscure. He doubled his workload this year and took a big leap up in every single category in only his third year, indicating steady improvement and progression. Even if he regresses back to his mean it is still extremely valuable production, you’re not wrong to assume an outlier number regresses the next year but to do that you have to entirely ignore his 3 year upward trend.
Of the top 20 pass rush win rate DTs, 3 players on the list have equal or less experience than madubuike, all remaining 17 players have at least 2 seasons of experience in the nfl over him. Outside of dexter, quinnen, and Derrick brown, everyone else is a well established veteran who have been starters for nearly a decade if not longer.

Say madubuike’s pressures and sacks dropped off in exchange for higher PRWR into the top 20, which would fit your bill more than the sacks and pressures, and say he took Derrick browns spot at #20, he would be 1 of 3 players on that list drafted after 2020, aside from kobie turner(the real outlier here) he would be the least experienced DT on that list. More reason to stop ignoring the upward trend of a blossoming player in his first full time bid.

For reference, top 10 PRWR for DTs last year looked like this…
9B4193E0-7C47-4516-B6A1-F08AF1069B88.jpeg

Dre’mont jones, Zach Allen, and Matt ioannidis, no fucking thanks. Bigger picture please. And JM’s 14% pass rush win rate would have put him at #8 just a year ago.


I feel it’s contrived because its willfully ignoring all of the most important basic factors in favor of advanced analytics with no room for nuance at all.

And as far as the edge guys having career years, have you watched our pass rush the past decade? Do you not see the distinct difference in a qb having a pocket to climb vs not having one? We’ve been gashed by qbs simply taking 1 step up in the pocket, for a very long time, there is no longer a pocket to step up in, that is madubuike’s doing, far more than anyone on the team. And yes I know clowney and KVN both have very strong PRWR on the season, but without madubuike’s pressure they likely wouldn’t have both topped their previous sack total. you remove JM for Broderick Washington and this pass rush is taking its biggest possible blow because PRWR for your edge means jack shit if they win their reps around the arc only to have the qb casually step forward, sacks aren’t the end all be all but those plays lose games, we lose madubuike our pass rushers are back to getting almost-sacks and losing games.
 
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29BmoreBird22

Staff Member
Moderator
Writer
These are definitely fair. I think the secondary was definitely worse last year. Hamilton wasn't ascended like he was at the end of last year kt this year. Before Roquan, the ILB play was also not as good. Campbell was also definitely not in his prime but was still a very good player.

All that being completely true, it's still probably not what accounts for 136% sack rate increase from an already respectable 5.5.

He definitely took a leap. Or it's just luck. Can't rule that out. Or both. But even if 4 or 5 of the 13 sacks are luck then he's an 8 or 9 sack guy.

Your point is what you pay an 8 sack guy and a 13 sack guy are very different. And I agree with that.
I think it's luck and a reasonable leap.

I think he's absolutely a player who seemingly got better year over year and ascended naturally. I also think this will be an outlier year in his career and the best of his career.

I fully expect him to be a quality player in the league for his career. I just personally think given the cap and the picture as a whole has me saying you need to make tough choices and sometimes guys get away.

And I want to add this disclaimer just to be clear-

If he's back, I'll absolutely root for this year to happen again year after year. I'd love to be wrong if he's back. I'm not rooting against him by any stretch and it is awesome he secured the pay day he did.

I'm just wary of hamstringing the cap when looking at the picture as a whole.
 

UPennChem

Hall of Famer
I think it's luck and a reasonable leap.

I think he's absolutely a player who seemingly got better year over year and ascended naturally. I also think this will be an outlier year in his career and the best of his career.

I fully expect him to be a quality player in the league for his career. I just personally think given the cap and the picture as a whole has me saying you need to make tough choices and sometimes guys get away.

And I want to add this disclaimer just to be clear-

If he's back, I'll absolutely root for this year to happen again year after year. I'd love to be wrong if he's back. I'm not rooting against him by any stretch and it is awesome he secured the pay day he did.

I'm just wary of hamstringing the cap when looking at the picture as a whole.
Yeah I hear you. My guess is he'll have a few years where he is a 7-10 sack guy. I think the Ravens would love to have that 7-10 sack guy.

If he wants Aaron Donald money, I don't think we give it to him. If he wants top end but no AD money, my guess is the Ravens will find a way to give him it. But that's a guess obviously
 

RavensMania

Staff Member
Administrator
According to? Can I see the source?
thats PFF

I filtered weeks 9-18. his win rate for the full season was 14.4 or 12th win rate, using a a 20% min snap count.

PRP for the full season was 8.4, which is 4th in the league behind Chris Jones 9.2, Quinnen Williams 8.7 and Aaron Donald 8.7

but again, those numbers went up from weeks 9-18
 
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29BmoreBird22

Staff Member
Moderator
Writer
when an interior defender has 64 pressures and 14 sacks in his first season as a full time starter, I’m sorry but I’m calling those deep analytics obscure. He doubled his workload this year and took a big leap up in every single category in only his third year, indicating steady improvement and progression. Even if he regresses back to his mean it is still extremely valuable production, you’re not wrong to assume an outlier number regresses the next year but to do that you have to entirely ignore his 3 year upward trend.
Of the top 20 pass rush win rate DTs, 3 players on the list have equal or less experience than madubuike, all remaining 17 players have at least 2 seasons of experience in the nfl over him. Outside of dexter, quinnen, and Derrick brown, everyone else is a well established veteran who have been starters for nearly a decade if not longer.

Say madubuike’s pressures and sacks dropped off in exchange for higher PRWR into the top 20, which would fit your bill more than the sacks and pressures, and say he took Derrick browns spot at #20, he would be 1 of 3 players on that list drafted after 2020, aside from kobie turner(the real outlier here) he would be the least experienced DT on that list. More reason to stop ignoring the upward trend of a blossoming player in his first full time bid.

For reference, top 10 PRWR for DTs last year looked like this…
View attachment 5884
Dre’mont jones, Zach Allen, and Matt ioannidis, no fucking thanks. Bigger picture please. And JM’s 14% pass rush win rate would have put him at #8 just a year ago.


I feel it’s contrived because its willfully ignoring basically all of the most important basic factors in favor of advanced analytics with no room for nuance at all.

And as far as the edge guys having career years, have you watched our pass rush the past decade? Do you not see the distinct difference in a qb having a pocket to climb vs not having one? We’ve been gashed by qbs simply taking 1 step up in the pocket, for a very long time, there is no longer a pocket to step up in, that is madubuike’s doing, far more than anyone on the team. And yes I know clowney and KVN both have very strong PRWR on the season, but without madubuike’s pressure they likely wouldn’t have both topped their previous sack total. you remove JM for Broderick Washington and this pass rush is taking its biggest possible blow because PRWR for your edge means jack shit if they win their reps around the arc only to have the qb casually step forward, sacks aren’t the end all be all but those plays lose games, we lose madubuike our pass rushers are back to getting almost-sacks and losing games.
Madubuike started 16 of 17 games in 2022. He played 100 more snaps this year. This is not his first time starting full time nor did he double his workload.

Where are you getting a 14% pass rush win rate? It's like 8% in ESPNs metrics.

Madubuike has benefited quite a bit from Clowney specifically flushing quarterbacks out to the point where Madubuike is able to disengage (or be held) and get a clean up sack. They're playing in tandem with each other- it's not a one or the other.

But let me ask this- what basic factors and nuance would you like to apply?
 

rossihunter2

Staff Member
Moderator
Let's see!

2020
19 tackles (7.3%)
1 sack (0.38%)
260 snaps

2021
36 tackles (7.4%)
2 sacks (0.41%)
484 snaps

It would seem that from year 1 to 2 his production on those 2 stats (the ones that I have free access to) he was just linear with snap count.

2022
42 tackles (6.4%)
5.5 sacks (0.84%)
655 snaps

From year 2 to year 3 he has a 100% increase in the sack rate when the snap rate only increased by 35%

2023
56 tackles (7.4%)
13 sacks (1.7%)
757 snaps

From year 3 to 4 he had a 136% increase in sacks with only a 15% increase in snaps.

So that means he really got as you said, similar playing time in 2022 that he did in 2023. Tbh I thought he played less in 2022 than he did. But both of those years, he played a shit ton of snaps. Both in MM defense. Kept a consistent tackle rate over his whole career but he's found a way to actually bring the QB done dramatically more efficiently every year. Far more over the expected increase from snaps.

My point was if it was system, why didn't Campbell feast considering he was a very good player with a ton of snaps?

More about the usage than the snaps as part of the difference between 2022 and 2023

2022 he wasn’t moved around to make the most of advantageous matchups, he was a guy used to help others get into those matchups

2023 he’s the guy we build this pass rush around
 

rossihunter2

Staff Member
Moderator
when an interior defender has 64 pressures and 14 sacks in his first season as a full time starter, I’m sorry but I’m calling those deep analytics obscure. He doubled his workload this year and took a big leap up in every single category in only his third year, indicating steady improvement and progression. Even if he regresses back to his mean it is still extremely valuable production, you’re not wrong to assume an outlier number regresses the next year but to do that you have to entirely ignore his 3 year upward trend.
Of the top 20 pass rush win rate DTs, 3 players on the list have equal or less experience than madubuike, all remaining 17 players have at least 2 seasons of experience in the nfl over him. Outside of dexter, quinnen, and Derrick brown, everyone else is a well established veteran who have been starters for nearly a decade if not longer.

Say madubuike’s pressures and sacks dropped off in exchange for higher PRWR into the top 20, which would fit your bill more than the sacks and pressures, and say he took Derrick browns spot at #20, he would be 1 of 3 players on that list drafted after 2020, aside from kobie turner(the real outlier here) he would be the least experienced DT on that list. More reason to stop ignoring the upward trend of a blossoming player in his first full time bid.

For reference, top 10 PRWR for DTs last year looked like this…
View attachment 5884
Dre’mont jones, Zach Allen, and Matt ioannidis, no fucking thanks. Bigger picture please. And JM’s 14% pass rush win rate would have put him at #8 just a year ago.


I feel it’s contrived because its willfully ignoring all of the most important basic factors in favor of advanced analytics with no room for nuance at all.

And as far as the edge guys having career years, have you watched our pass rush the past decade? Do you not see the distinct difference in a qb having a pocket to climb vs not having one? We’ve been gashed by qbs simply taking 1 step up in the pocket, for a very long time, there is no longer a pocket to step up in, that is madubuike’s doing, far more than anyone on the team. And yes I know clowney and KVN both have very strong PRWR on the season, but without madubuike’s pressure they likely wouldn’t have both topped their previous sack total. you remove JM for Broderick Washington and this pass rush is taking its biggest possible blow because PRWR for your edge means jack shit if they win their reps around the arc only to have the qb casually step forward, sacks aren’t the end all be all but those plays lose games, we lose madubuike our pass rushers are back to getting almost-sacks and losing games.

The other thing is that win rate is only one kind of pressure stat and certainly not the be-all-end-all
 

UPennChem

Hall of Famer
More about the usage than the snaps as part of the difference between 2022 and 2023

2022 he wasn’t moved around to make the most of advantageous matchups, he was a guy used to help others get into those matchups

2023 he’s the guy we build this pass rush around
That's interesting! I honestly can't remember how we used him last year. I'm glad you do! ^_^
 

JoeyFlex5

Hall of Famer
Madubuike started 16 of 17 games in 2022. He played 100 more snaps this year. This is not his first time starting full time nor did he double his workload.

Where are you getting a 14% pass rush win rate? It's like 8% in ESPNs metrics.

Madubuike has benefited quite a bit from Clowney specifically flushing quarterbacks out to the point where Madubuike is able to disengage (or be held) and get a clean up sack. They're playing in tandem with each other- it's not a one or the other.

But let me ask this- what basic factors and nuance would you like to apply?
I’m now seeing conflicting numbers for his PRWR. I see 11.2 from pff, and 14 from a ravens centric article that is citing 14 from pff. One thing I have not seen is 8%, anywhere from any source.

- the ravens centric article in question that cites 14% from pff

And I’ve already discussed a shit ton of the nuance lol, we are all the ones trying to discuss nuance, you are the one using strictly raw data.

I’m reading back over my posts here and I may be coming off as shitty and aggressive, just wanna say that I’m not trying to do that lol all respect
 

JoeyFlex5

Hall of Famer
I wish PFF would have clearly defined their parameters. I can't find a solid definition of what a win is outside of "beat his man" and even that isn't clearly defined.
Yeah, seems like raw data in advanced analytics where every source reports a different percentage for the same stat should only play a small part in such a big decision
 

RavensMania

Staff Member
Administrator
I’m now seeing conflicting numbers for his PRWR. I see 11.2 from pff, and 14 from a ravens centric article that is citing 14 from pff. One thing I have not seen is 8%, anywhere from any source.

- the ravens centric article in question that cites 14% from pff

And I’ve already discussed a shit ton of the nuance lol, we are all the ones trying to discuss nuance, you are the one using strictly raw data.

I’m reading back over my posts here and I may be coming off as shitty and aggressive, just wanna say that I’m not trying to do that lol all respect
I filtered weeks 9-18 and got 11.2 PRP (full season 8.4) and his win rate was 17.7% (full season 14.4)

He's had tremendous growth throughout just this season. Not just year over year.
 

29BmoreBird22

Staff Member
Moderator
Writer
I’m now seeing conflicting numbers for his PRWR. I see 11.2 from pff, and 14 from a ravens centric article that is citing 14 from pff. One thing I have not seen is 8%, anywhere from any source.

- the ravens centric article in question that cites 14% from pff

And I’ve already discussed a shit ton of the nuance lol, we are all the ones trying to discuss nuance, you are the one using strictly raw data.

I’m reading back over my posts here and I may be coming off as shitty and aggressive, just wanna say that I’m not trying to do that lol all respect

Yeah, seems like raw data in advanced analytics where every source reports a different percentage for the same stat should only play a small part in such a big decision
For ESPN, they very clearly say a pass rush win is a player getting within a certain vicinity (they define the exact distance) of the quarterback within 2.5 seconds of the snap. I think that it is perfectly reasonable to use that as a stat.

I do not particularly like ones like PFF where it essentially boils down to, "Beat your man." Does that mean you did it in a certain time frame? Judging by their paragraph minimally explaining pass rush win rate, I don't believe so. It also doesn't say the player has to even affect the outcome of the play with a pressure. I'm wary of ones like that.

PFF is certainly less strict than ESPN in this instance. For example, the ESPN pass rush win rate had Dexter Lawrence at roughly 18% through week five. PFF had him at 21.2%.

As for the 8% pass rush win rate, that's more so me eyeballing the graph from ESPN, but it's somewhere in that 8%-9% range.

I'm just trying to get at what you think nuance is and why advanced stats aren't nuance. I think that adds a lot to the context and the discussion, personally. Like, it's definitely something to monitor that Madubuike's double team rate declined as the season progressed. It's something to monitor that his pass rush win rate, according to ESPN, didn't steadily increase dramatically in this time frame. It's worth monitoring that an absurd amount of pressures have been converted to sacks and unless he continues playing like an outlier, we will see a very decent regression. I think it's worth noting that Madubuike has collected 9.5 sacks when the Ravens lead by 8 or more points and 6.0 have come when leading by 15 points. In total, 11 of his sacks have come when leading.

I think it is entirely fair to note that the Ravens have trailed by the third least (I think it's the third least, but definitely bottom five) in NFL history over the course of the regular season (well, at least until week 18.) It shouldn't be a total shocker that Madubuike has collected 9.5 sacks in the second half compared to only 3.5 in the first half. Unsurprisingly, his highest sack total by quarter is 5.5 in the fourth. I don't think the Ravens have actually gone into a half trailing. They've been tied or ahead every time, so this makes total sense. Also definitely worth noting that Madubuike only has 0.5 sacks when the game is within 7 in the fourth quarter. I don't think these situations happened a ton, so smaller sample size, but still something to keep an eye on.

Would it shock you to know the Ravens faced the second most pass attempts in the NFL? Would it surprise you to know that the Ravens faced 513 pass attempts when leading with only 121 coming when trailing? Unsurprisingly, the Ravens garnered 49 sacks when ahead to 11 when even or trailing.

Would it shock you to know that 47 sacks have come when opponents are facing 7+ yards for a first down?

These are all things to keep an eye on and ask questions about. How much of it comes down to MacDonald's scheme? Again, every single member of the defensive line and every front seven starter has a sack. Clowney and Van Noy, who wasn't even picked up until week four, have had career years. How much of it is due to the Ravens being ahead by massive margins and generally playing teams that need to pass to catch up? There are teams that faced fewer pass attempts than the Ravens *when leading.* But even then, the Ravens have blown teams out of the water in many games or held significant leads in games that otherwise appear close based on the final score (games like Arizona where the final score doesn't indicate how much the Ravens were actually in control.) This is a lot of opportunities to pin your ears back as a pass rusher and just go to town. Next year, the team as a whole will be a whole lot worse if I had to guess. I think we'll see significant change at WR, RB, OL, LB, OLB, and CB. If the team isn't able to generate these insane leads, and I don't think they will next year, will he be able to pass rush as well from neutral states?

Again, I think a lot of factors, many outside of Madubuike's control, went into making this a very special year for him and I don't think it's sustainable or that he's some pass rushing wizard. I think overall that he'll get paid well above what he should and I don't think it'll be in Baltimore given the limited cap space and the needs elsewhere.

Also, I don't think anyone is being aggressive in this. I think at the end of the day it's all football discussion and we all understand that. I know I'm taking an unpopular approach on this one so I'm going to get push back. I don't take it personally.

And again, I would love to be wrong if he re-signs with the Ravens, but I'm very wary of a Vic Beasley situation. Only difference being the Ravens don't have the luxury of another season to see how things play out.
 

JoeyFlex5

Hall of Famer
For ESPN, they very clearly say a pass rush win is a player getting within a certain vicinity (they define the exact distance) of the quarterback within 2.5 seconds of the snap. I think that it is perfectly reasonable to use that as a stat.

I do not particularly like ones like PFF where it essentially boils down to, "Beat your man." Does that mean you did it in a certain time frame? Judging by their paragraph minimally explaining pass rush win rate, I don't believe so. It also doesn't say the player has to even affect the outcome of the play with a pressure. I'm wary of ones like that.

PFF is certainly less strict than ESPN in this instance. For example, the ESPN pass rush win rate had Dexter Lawrence at roughly 18% through week five. PFF had him at 21.2%.

As for the 8% pass rush win rate, that's more so me eyeballing the graph from ESPN, but it's somewhere in that 8%-9% range.

I'm just trying to get at what you think nuance is and why advanced stats aren't nuance. I think that adds a lot to the context and the discussion, personally. Like, it's definitely something to monitor that Madubuike's double team rate declined as the season progressed. It's something to monitor that his pass rush win rate, according to ESPN, didn't steadily increase dramatically in this time frame. It's worth monitoring that an absurd amount of pressures have been converted to sacks and unless he continues playing like an outlier, we will see a very decent regression. I think it's worth noting that Madubuike has collected 9.5 sacks when the Ravens lead by 8 or more points and 6.0 have come when leading by 15 points. In total, 11 of his sacks have come when leading.

I think it is entirely fair to note that the Ravens have trailed by the third least (I think it's the third least, but definitely bottom five) in NFL history over the course of the regular season (well, at least until week 18.) It shouldn't be a total shocker that Madubuike has collected 9.5 sacks in the second half compared to only 3.5 in the first half. Unsurprisingly, his highest sack total by quarter is 5.5 in the fourth. I don't think the Ravens have actually gone into a half trailing. They've been tied or ahead every time, so this makes total sense. Also definitely worth noting that Madubuike only has 0.5 sacks when the game is within 7 in the fourth quarter. I don't think these situations happened a ton, so smaller sample size, but still something to keep an eye on.

Would it shock you to know the Ravens faced the second most pass attempts in the NFL? Would it surprise you to know that the Ravens faced 513 pass attempts when leading with only 121 coming when trailing? Unsurprisingly, the Ravens garnered 49 sacks when ahead to 11 when even or trailing.

Would it shock you to know that 47 sacks have come when opponents are facing 7+ yards for a first down?

These are all things to keep an eye on and ask questions about. How much of it comes down to MacDonald's scheme? Again, every single member of the defensive line and every front seven starter has a sack. Clowney and Van Noy, who wasn't even picked up until week four, have had career years. How much of it is due to the Ravens being ahead by massive margins and generally playing teams that need to pass to catch up? There are teams that faced fewer pass attempts than the Ravens *when leading.* But even then, the Ravens have blown teams out of the water in many games or held significant leads in games that otherwise appear close based on the final score (games like Arizona where the final score doesn't indicate how much the Ravens were actually in control.) This is a lot of opportunities to pin your ears back as a pass rusher and just go to town. Next year, the team as a whole will be a whole lot worse if I had to guess. I think we'll see significant change at WR, RB, OL, LB, OLB, and CB. If the team isn't able to generate these insane leads, and I don't think they will next year, will he be able to pass rush as well from neutral states?

Again, I think a lot of factors, many outside of Madubuike's control, went into making this a very special year for him and I don't think it's sustainable or that he's some pass rushing wizard. I think overall that he'll get paid well above what he should and I don't think it'll be in Baltimore given the limited cap space and the needs elsewhere.

Also, I don't think anyone is being aggressive in this. I think at the end of the day it's all football discussion and we all understand that. I know I'm taking an unpopular approach on this one so I'm going to get push back. I don't take it personally.

And again, I would love to be wrong if he re-signs with the Ravens, but I'm very wary of a Vic Beasley situation. Only difference being the Ravens don't have the luxury of another season to see how things play out.
The nuance is considering the real world factors to contextualize the raw numbers you were throwing out, felt like a really narrow lens when leaving out year over year progression, month over month progression in-season, where he stands among his peers in regards to experience and playing situation, etc.
 
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