21m projected for a defensive tackle on the non exclusive tag
I'd prefer extending him and keeping his cap reasonable for next season
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The Lamar, The Defence and The Special Teams
- Thread starter rossihunter2
- Start date
I'd prefer extending him and keeping his cap reasonable for next season
I don't think Judon was a guy they lost sleep over, but I do think they really wanted ZDS back.
They paid Yanda over Grubbs, another guy I think they'd have loved back, but I digress. When Osemele was signed by the Raiders, Yanda had an extremely team friendly cap hit and well below his market value.
I don't think Madibuike is a superstar. I think he's heavily propped up by MacDonald's scheme. I think he's priced himself out of Baltimore and I don't think the tag is a guarantee given the Ravens need to create over $15M to even tag him.
JoeyFlex5
Hall of Famer
Still can’t for the life of me figure out why you feel madubuike is just being propped up…
I use Spotrac and they had them at ~$6M.
I'll try to find something from the Ravens cap guru when I can.
I just checked Brian McFarland's numbers and with 45 players under contract and no cap adjustments (the Ravens will lose $7M to incentives), the Ravens sit at $16M. So, basically before zero moves, the Ravens sit at $9M.
Assuming the post June money from OBJ is for the draft class, the Ravens will have $9M to start to fill out eight more roster spots and work through free agency.
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I have explained many times. It's out there.
allblackraven
Hall of Famer
So, no convincing you until he does it at the similar level in a different scheme?
there are more high quality sacks than you think. Sure many aren't from double teams and about half are from the interior but he's still worth the money. It's not all about the sacks. Check Brandon Thorn true sack rate. (TSR)
JoeyFlex5
Hall of Famer
Oh I’ve seen it, it’s just incredibly contrived and seems you are needing to cherry pick some very deep and obscure analytics to conjure this up, and it seems you made up your mind long ago on this and as allblack said you won’t change your mind unless you see otherwise.
Me though, I see a player who progresses leaps and bounds every season who got his first nod as a full time starter in year 3 because Calais left and had an all universe season in his first full time action.
I'd like to see another year of play at this level, which would lend itself to the franchise tag, but it's a year where the Ravens just don't have the cap.
I also was on the let Madubuike go train right after the Titans game. The pressures weren't there at that point, but he totally took off the 2nd half. I know others who have changed their tune on Madubuike as well. I'm not on the we must sign Madubuike and keep him in house. I don't know how we would let a player of his magnatude walk. If he drops down to the mean of 8 sacks next season and still continues to get a decent amount of pressures its worth it. We use him all over the alighnment and he makes other players around him eat. Could he have benefited from the players around him. Sure, but they also benefited from him as well.
I'd hardly call a poor pass rush win rate and low double team rate cherry picked. It's season long.
It's pretty difficult to argue against his pressures to sacks being unsustainable. There will be a natural regression.
Clowney wasn't picked up until right before the season and Van Noy until week four. Both are having career years.
Every starting member of the front seven has a sack and every defensive lineman has a sack.
I think MacDonald is putting him in a better position than he could reasonably ask for and he, along with every front seven player, are benefitting heavily from how MacDonald schemes pressure.
It looks like he grades a high quality sack as beating a 1v1 or 1v2 regardless of the level of player lined up across from the pass rusher. Highest quality had the qualifier of being an elite blocker (your Trent Williams of the league), but high quality seemingly doesn't care about the blocker, from what I saw. Before I comment, am I understanding that correctly?
th
that much I'm unsure of.
UPennChem
Hall of Famer
I think on Madabuike, you know it's not exactly just scheme because look at his stat trajectory first of all and second of all use Calais as the surrogate in the same system last year. Calais was not a superstar anymore but was absolutely a very a good player still. Madabuike has put Calais to shame this year.
I think there was little to suggest a jump of this magnitude.
He had 54 pressures in his first three years combined. He notched 64 this year. He had 8.5 sacks in his first three years. He had 13 this year.
He's had about 100 more snaps this year compared to last year. I don't think it's an issue of Calais hogging playing time.
rmcjacket23
Ravens Ring of Honor
Well, couple things:
a) they chose Yanda over Grubbs. They weren't going to pay market value to two Guards at the same time. Same exact concept as likely not paying Queen and Smith. If they played different positions entirely, they'd probably have tried harder to keep him.
b) They don't need to create $15M to tag him. Today, they'd only need to create something like ~$5-6M, and I already laid out some fairly straight forward roster cuts I think they can make to do it.
They have many, many, many ways to tag him and not gut the roster to do it. They're already in a pretty good position to do that. They're just not in a position to tag him and be shopping early in FA, or really shopping in any part of FA that isn't the low-end market, until they reduce his # via extension.
The OBJ situation is largely going to create most of the space you need. If he's extended, it'll greatly reduce his cap hit anyway, creating $ sooner. If he's not extended, he'll be cut with a pre-June 1 designation, allowing us to create plenty of cap space after June 1 to sign draft picks, fill out the roster, etc.
Plus, as I said before, IF we win the SB, and maybe even if we don't, I think you're going to see a substantial amount of veterans either not re-signed, or cut all together. I think Bowser is long gone, and I think Moses and Ricard are on the chopping block for sure. Those three guys alone would create ~$15M in cap space. That allows you to tag JM, and still have $10M in cap space, without restructuring anybody. And I expect restructures.
From his methodology, that's what I gathered. Seems rather odd to separate into two categories- sacks against elite blockers and sacks against everyone else.
Regarding B), Brian McFarland has the Ravens at $16M under, but we know they're going to lose $7M to incentives from this year, so they're at more like $9M before any moves. There are obvious ones, like Bowser, but they're not super high up in cap space to start.
his pass rush win rate has gone up throughout the season and I'm not sure I'd call it a poor win rate.
From week 9-18 his win rate is 6th in the league at 17.7. During that same time frame his PRP is 2nd. in the league at 11.2.
No question Macdonald is putting him in a good position to succeed but we can't take that away from him. He's putting in the work regardless and doing a tremendous job.
I just wanted you to see how much he has improved from weeks 9-18 to raise his win rate.
UPennChem
Hall of Famer
Let's see!
2020
19 tackles (7.3%)
1 sack (0.38%)
260 snaps
2021
36 tackles (7.4%)
2 sacks (0.41%)
484 snaps
It would seem that from year 1 to 2 his production on those 2 stats (the ones that I have free access to) he was just linear with snap count.
2022
42 tackles (6.4%)
5.5 sacks (0.84%)
655 snaps
From year 2 to year 3 he has a 100% increase in the sack rate when the snap rate only increased by 35%
2023
56 tackles (7.4%)
13 sacks (1.7%)
757 snaps
From year 3 to 4 he had a 136% increase in sacks with only a 15% increase in snaps.
So that means he really got as you said, similar playing time in 2022 that he did in 2023. Tbh I thought he played less in 2022 than he did. But both of those years, he played a shit ton of snaps. Both in MM defense. Kept a consistent tackle rate over his whole career but he's found a way to actually bring the QB done dramatically more efficiently every year. Far more over the expected increase from snaps.
My point was if it was system, why didn't Campbell feast considering he was a very good player with a ton of snaps?