The Random Thought Thread

[Simba]

Absolutely, but that's the tradeoff for having a shorter term investment. I don't think we as fans could possibly know what is going to be intersection of what is best for Lamar and the Ravens and then the structure of that contract lol. I guess as a final question here, is it even possible that Lamar has a new contract before the season, or is it actually a truly forgone conclusion that Lamar isn't talking until after the season?

If the latter, oh boy things are gonna get crazy next year.

Watson just made it so difficult. Kirk Cousins tried the fully guaranteed thing first, but he arguably took under market value in AAV over a shorter contract in order to get that, of course knowing that the cap was rising significantly at the time. Cleveland just turned the whole thing over by taking what a big long term deal for a QB looks like and fully guaranteeing all of that.

From Lamar's perspective, why sign a 3 year when you can sign a 5 year for more money? There's a good chance that contract has to be reworked after year 3 anyways, so that's an extra $100M or so in the bank to put yourself in virtually the same position.

As far as whether it can happen this year or not, I think it's a yes. But it requires the Ravens to make that commitment. If not, Lamar and his camp realize the cap is going to continue to rise and other QBs are going to be aiming for something similar to what Watson got and that bar is going to continue to be raised. If you asked me pre-Watson deal, I don't think Lamar had much more to gain so signing this year made sense. Post-Watson deal? He's in control of his own destiny.

 

[Davesta]

 

[UPennChem]

Watson just made it so difficult. Kirk Cousins tried the fully guaranteed thing first, but he arguably took under market value in AAV over a shorter contract in order to get that, of course knowing that the cap was rising significantly at the time. Cleveland just turned the whole thing over by taking what a big long term deal for a QB looks like and fully guaranteeing all of that.

From Lamar's perspective, why sign a 3 year when you can sign a 5 year for more money? There's a good chance that contract has to be reworked after year 3 anyways, so that's an extra $100M or so in the bank to put yourself in virtually the same position.

As far as whether it can happen this year or not, I think it's a yes. But it requires the Ravens to make that commitment. If not, Lamar and his camp realize the cap is going to continue to rise and other QBs are going to be aiming for something similar to what Watson got and that bar is going to continue to be raised. If you asked me pre-Watson deal, I don't think Lamar had much more to gain so signing this year made sense. Post-Watson deal? He's in control of his own destiny.

Thanks for going through all of this with me! Now if the Ravens don't want to make that commitment this year, based on what we discussed earlier about things actually get harder to commit to as time goes on, do we actually have some reason to believe Lamar is not in the Ravens long term plans? Obviously things are not so cut and dry. He may win a SB this year, maybe he gets us to a SB or a AFC championship game. Maybe that makes them feel better, but maybe he doesn't.

Before today, I never considered a world where Lamar isn't a Raven for another contract. After today, I would still assume that the Ravens make the commitment to him, but I acknowledge that its not a foregone conclusion.

 

[Simba]

Thanks for going through all of this with me! Now if the Ravens don't want to make that commitment this year, based on what we discussed earlier about things actually get harder to commit to as time goes on, do we actually have some reason to believe Lamar is not in the Ravens long term plans? Obviously things are not so cut and dry. He may win a SB this year, maybe he gets us to a SB or a AFC championship game. Maybe that makes them feel better, but maybe he doesn't.

Before today, I never considered a world where Lamar isn't a Raven for another contract. After today, I would still assume that the Ravens make the commitment to him, but I acknowledge that its not a foregone conclusion.

I'd be very surprised if something doesn't get worked out eventually. Might not be this year or even next year depending on how much Lamar wants to continue betting on himself, but it'll get done at some point.

I think the only way something doesn't happen is if Lamar just goes out there and shits the bed this season but that's obviously on the extreme.

 

[UPennChem]

I'd be very surprised if something doesn't get worked out eventually. Might not be this year or even next year depending on how much Lamar wants to continue betting on himself, but it'll get done at some point.

I think the only way something doesn't happen is if Lamar just goes out there and shits the bed this season but that's obviously on the extreme.

I also think something gets done. I wonder if a mid-season deal could get done if they see Lamar is playing at a high level. I'm sure if Lamar is playing well he'll continue to want to defer.

 

[rossihunter2]

What you're saying makes sense to me. But it actually begs a really huge question for the Ravens.

Lamar is on the last year of his contract.
Lamar is asking for X right now.

If Lamar plays this year out without signing a deal then the following options are possible.

Lamar is allowed to hit the open market. In which he could sign elsewhere or with the Ravens. But even if he does sign with us, at that point because of the demand for him he'll sign for Y where Y is higher than X.

The other option is you are forced to Franchise Tag him in which you just delay option 1 by one year.

Personally it seems to me that Lamar has all the leverage and as much as that sucks for the Ravens, if you're committed to Lamar, you should cut your losses now and mitigate the risk of losing him and or having to pay an even higher premium.

It does not help Lamar to hold out so that's not even a worry in my mind for one second.

Maybe the OTAs thing is just his first new opportunity to totally within the rules put even more pressure on the Ravens. Which I now believe has been your position the whole time.

If this is the case, the situation is less comfortable than I personally had originally felt it to be. I don't see how the Ravens if they are committed to Lamar can do anything other than give him the contract he wants right now.

the franchise tags actually help lower the immediacy of the contract - up until mid-July, you can still negotiate with players who are tagged - the fact that lamar will 100% be tagged twice means that you go into all negotiations knowing that now... so tagging isn't just a delay

im still not confident this is him making any sort of statement at all with OTAs etc.

i honestly wouldn't be surprised if it's somehow more related to the restaurants he's been setting up this offseason or if it's to do with the training with DeDeaux... on that note do we know if Bin Victor's back in the building?

 

[UPennChem]

the franchise tags actually help lower the immediacy of the contract - up until mid-July, you can still negotiate with players who are tagged - the fact that lamar will 100% be tagged twice means that you go into all negotiations knowing that now... so tagging isn't just a delay

im still not confident this is him making any sort of statement at all with OTAs etc.

i honestly wouldn't be surprised if it's somehow more related to the restaurants he's been setting up this offseason or if it's to do with the training with DeDeaux... on that note do we know if Bin Victor's back in the building?

Wait your predicting Lamar will be tagged twice before signing a longer term deal?

I've neither seen nor read anything about Victor yet this offseason

 

[rossihunter2]

I also think something gets done. I wonder if a mid-season deal could get done if they see Lamar is playing at a high level. I'm sure if Lamar is playing well he'll continue to want to defer.

the only snafu on a mid-season deal is that this is the last year that becomes an option - on the franchise tag, the deadline is normally mid-July to negotiate

but certainly something plausible for this year for sure - and there's precedent with Stanley and Humphrey both signing deals mid-season

 

[rossihunter2]

Wait your predicting Lamar will be tagged twice before signing a longer term deal?

I've neither seen nor read anything about Victor yet this offseason

im saying that if no long-term deal gets done that everyone knows that the ravens are tagging him twice (and lamar knows that too)
and the fact that everyone knows that means there's less urgency about the situation changing significantly (beyond maybe price) over the next couple of years

yes, he's technically a free agent after this year... but he's not really

 

[UPennChem]

im saying that if no long-term deal gets done that everyone knows that the ravens are tagging him twice (and lamar knows that too)
and the fact that everyone knows that means there's less urgency about the situation changing significantly (beyond maybe price) over the next couple of years

yes, he's technically a free agent after this year... but he's not really

Why does it have to be twice though? I'd really prefer they just commit to him now. If it fails I will not blame them. The longer this goes on, cap wise the more detrimental it will be to this team. Also the longer it takes to get to a long term deal the riskier that deal is gonna be.

 

[rmcjacket23]

If Lamar is missing OTAs because he is getting more out of Dedeaux than Urban, maybe it's time to move on from Urban. Obviously if that's not the reason then there's no reason to move on from Urban. I just can't make heads or tails of this and I personally won't accept its voluntary and he's a vet now so no big deal. That's not Lamar and that's not how QB1s behave.

There is no Aversion to working and no one loves football more than Lamar. So it's gotta be that Lamar is less than thrilled about how OTAs are compared to something else. How could this be anything other than an opportunity cost situation.

If it is, the Ravens should be trying to figure out a way to make Lamar happier and therefore more successful.

Or Lamar thinks he can get more work in doing his own workouts than he does at OTAs, which aren't even really about him. OTAs aren't, and shouldn't be, designed to make a QB happy. It's like an 80 man roster at this point.
Note that Brady hasn't attended voluntary OTAs in several years now. Rodgers frequently misses as well.
Are they not QB1s?

 

[rmcjacket23]

im saying that if no long-term deal gets done that everyone knows that the ravens are tagging him twice (and lamar knows that too)
and the fact that everyone knows that means there's less urgency about the situation changing significantly (beyond maybe price) over the next couple of years

yes, he's technically a free agent after this year... but he's not really

Well the urgency gets created when Lamar realizes that his "weapons" have an exponentially less chance of being upgraded substantially the longer he continues to play on a franchise tag.
If he's OK with that, then I agree, there's no urgency.

 

[Deebo813]

Or Lamar thinks he can get more work in doing his own workouts than he does at OTAs, which aren't even really about him. OTAs aren't, and shouldn't be, designed to make a QB happy. It's like an 80 man roster at this point.
Note that Brady hasn't attended voluntary OTAs in several years now. Rodgers frequently misses as well.
Are they not QB1s?

Rodgers and brady arent good comparisons.. those guys could probably miss practice for a week if they wanted lol… josh allen is at Otas

 

[rossihunter2]

Why does it have to be twice though? I'd really prefer they just commit to him now. If it fails I will not blame them. The longer this goes on, cap wise the more detrimental it will be to this team. Also the longer it takes to get to a long term deal the riskier that deal is gonna be.

im not saying it has to be twice - im saying that if lamar doesnt sign a long-term deal earlier, it will be twice

the earlier this gets done the better - but in terms of negotiation, both sides know that in the worst-case scenario, lamar's a raven for the next 3 seasons because they will have no issue slapping the franchise tag on for the next 2 years

 

[rmcjacket23]

Rodgers and brady arent good comparisons.. those guys could probably miss practice for a week if they wanted lol… josh allen is at Otas

They're perfectly valid comparisons. Leaders in the locker room, veteran experience, credit for being hard working, and already knowingly aren't just sitting on a couch when their teammates are out working. Everybody knows what Lamar is doing and what he isn't.
Josh Allen could miss practice too. So can Lamar. This isn't rocket science.

 

[Deebo813]

They're perfectly valid comparisons. Leaders in the locker room, veteran experience, credit for being hard working, and already knowingly aren't just sitting on a couch when their teammates are out working. Everybody knows what Lamar is doing and what he isn't.
Josh Allen could miss practice too. So can Lamar. This isn't rocket science.

Yea but rodgers and brady been in lg 20yrs.. they basically have perfected their craft or are already as good as theyre gonna get… i dnt care that lamar missed otas at all but i think a better comparison would be allen or hebert

 

[Tank]

Maybe Lamar has the shitz.

 

[allblackraven]

This is pretty incredible.

 

[JoeyFlex5]

This is pretty incredible.

This reporter sounds like a big pussy

 

[allblackraven]

This reporter sounds like a big pussy

complete wanker