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The Random Thought Thread

Willbacker

Willbacker

Ravens Ring of Honor
RavensMania said:
should be in this......read the article at the bottom of the table.

https://overthecap.com/projecting-the-2020-compensatory-picks/

This is one paragraph that talks about the ranking. The above link gives the entire article and is quite informative.

It was suggested via the resolution allowing comp picks to be traded on December 2, 2015 that the cutoffs between each rounds and whether or not a player had an APY high enough to qualify was determined by a “rank[ing] against all players in the League who are on rosters at the end of the season”. I have conjectured from this evidence that the cutoffs are based on a percentile system. After refining the OTC’s program following the official release of the 2017 compensatory picks, it’s my guess that the percentiles operate on even percentages divisible by five, as illustrated in the table below.
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Got a good link off of one of your links lol

https://overthecap.com/the-basics-and-methodology-of-projecting-the-nfls-compensatory-draft-picks/

The snap count killed us according to the formula. Especially check out the special cases at the bottom. Could be the main reason Suggs only netted us a 5th. Still could have been from the formula tho.
 
RavensMania

RavensMania

Staff Member
Administrator
Willbacker said:
Got a good link off of one of your links lol

https://overthecap.com/the-basics-and-methodology-of-projecting-the-nfls-compensatory-draft-picks/

The snap count killed us according to the formula. Especially check out the special cases at the bottom. Could be the main reason Suggs only netted us a 5th. Still could have been from the formula tho.
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I think this is pretty old unless it's been updated. I'll check it out though.

Mark Ingram cancelled out Suggs anyway.
 
RavensMania

RavensMania

Staff Member
Administrator
The reason why ET cancels out ZDS and not CJ Mosley.

A CFA gained by a team cancels out the highest-valued available CFA lost that has the same round valuation of the CFA gained.
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RavensMania

RavensMania

Staff Member
Administrator
Willbacker said:
Yeah I was saying the highest he could get us was a 5th tho even if he had the highest APY.
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yes, I was aware of this rule and remember it happening to the Bengals when they lost Whitworth. He dropped from an expected 3rd round comp to a 5th round comp pick or something like that.
 
UPennChem

UPennChem

Hall of Famer
As much as I hate the pats, I feel like rooting for them to win is good for us. I really think the rematch against Houston or Buffalo would be a cakewalk tbh. The Texans are showing yet again they can't do much against a stout defense and Josh Allen is showing everyone what they expected, he's not gonna cut it for taking you to the superbowl. I have a strong suspicion that the toughest first game we could have is against Tennessee.
 
UPennChem

UPennChem

Hall of Famer
Titans or Texans! Feeling good. I could be being very harsh, but I do not think Josh Allen will ever have what it takes to be a great quarterback.
 
rmcjacket23

rmcjacket23

Ravens Ring of Honor
rossihunter2 said:
right but i think what you're seeing now is that the defence that we are running here schematically relies upon the secondary depth more than 4 man pass rush - that's what we mean in terms of roster building - we didnt have to trade for marcus peters and give up draft capital, nor did we have to sign him but we did because he was clearly an ingredient that would help our defence work

and i think what you're also seeing is the start of a sea change - whether we intended to do this or not, the analytics and the form of the best defences in the league would suggest that the secondary is much more important in this league right now where short/quick passing is so efficient - so even if we didnt foresee this and just got lucky with the players we acquired at the time, it's become fairly clear that you should build from the back forwards especially if you want to implement a defensive scheme like we have
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Well, with Peters, I think its two things:
1. You give up little draft capital to get him, and you do so after you lose Jimmy and Tavon, which means your depth is at serious risk at that point. Couple that with the idea that when you make the trade you realize you're a legit contender to win right now, and that's pretty much all you need.
2. Also pulls in the idea that I think the Ravens know they're going to lose likely both Carr and Jimmy next year, and so they figured if they're going to pay $10-12M to Jimmy, which I think is what it would cost to get him to stay, why not pay $14-15M to Peters, who is younger and more of a "ball hawk" than Jimmy.
 
rmcjacket23

rmcjacket23

Ravens Ring of Honor
RavensMania said:
even if Jimmy gives us a hometown discount, say 2 yr deal at 7 to 8m per season, we still should have no problem taking Brandon Carr's option and not having any problem extending Stanley.
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I could be completely wrong, but I don't see Jimmy signing for a rate like that.

I think a hometown discount would probably be more in the $10M a year range. I don't think he'd have any problem getting $10-12M a year on the open market, especially if its only like a 2-3 year deal.

He was making like $10M a year on his last deal, which is like 5 years ago. He's got 2-3 good years left in him if he stays healthy (yes, big if). If I were him and his agent, I'm not taking anything less than what I signed for the last time. The partial decline and injury risk he comes with is basically offset by the significant inflation of the price tag at that position during the last few years.
 
RavensMania

RavensMania

Staff Member
Administrator
rmcjacket23 said:
I could be completely wrong, but I don't see Jimmy signing for a rate like that.

I think a hometown discount would probably be more in the $10M a year range. I don't think he'd have any problem getting $10-12M a year on the open market, especially if its only like a 2-3 year deal.

He was making like $10M a year on his last deal, which is like 5 years ago. He's got 2-3 good years left in him if he stays healthy (yes, big if). If I were him and his agent, I'm not taking anything less than what I signed for the last time. The partial decline and injury risk he comes with is basically offset by the significant inflation of the price tag at that position during the last few years.
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you may absolutely be right, but I wouldn't pay more than 8m per season on a deal no more than 2 yrs. Give it to him fully guaranteed and that may work. The guaranteed money is what's important anyway.
 
BloodRaven

BloodRaven

MVP
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Sami84

Sami84

Ravens Ring of Honor
Grim said:
Can’t believe we could’ve had this guy and others over Correa. What a terrible job we did in the second and third rounds that year. So many missed talents we could’ve had.
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Chris Jones was the one I was pounding the desk for

But we got the legends of Kaufusi and Correa

Jaylon Ferguson better be setting the edge..I worry about him in particular against two very good tackles that the titans possess.
 
Grim

Grim

Ravens Ring of Honor
Sami84 said:
Chris Jones was the one I was pounding the desk for

But we got the legends of Kaufusi and Correa

Jaylon Ferguson better be setting the edge..I worry about him in particular against two very good tackles that the titans possess.
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Correa isn’t even a guy I liked back then at the pick. I was a bit surprised we took him and hopeful he’d pan out but he was a 5th round pick to me. Kaufusi I didn’t hate as much. He was OK and I thought he had potential but he was pretty bad in hindsight too. Just trying to be honest.

But man...Jones, Henry, Whitehair, Howard, Ngakoue, Byard, Thomas, Bell were guys I wanted. I thought highly of others too like a Spence, Alexander and others who didn’t pan out as much but they were better picks than ours in that round. We did terrible in the 2nd and 3rd. We hit some home runs with Judon and Stanley but damn we had some bad picks there.

I don’t think we have a shot at Jones or Henry either in FA btw. I doubt their respective teams let them go
 
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